Morning Report – 3-26-14 – Dan-Chat, Bill James, 2018, Pelf, Notes


Coming Up –

        10 am – Rising Met Prospect Luis Guillorme- More Than Just the Glove

        12 noon –   A Very Interesting Idea From Texas Blog 'The Beanball'

        2 pm –  Met Pitchers Remaining In Camp

        4 pm –  BTBS - Top 40 Prospects - San Diego Padres

        6 pm –  Touki Toussiant, KJ Harrison, Jacob Gatewood, Reese Cooley, Alex Jackson

        8 pm –  SS - Ti'Quan Forbes - Columbia (MS) HS

Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN  -  Asked Paul DePodesta if 2013 first-round pick Dominic Smith would open season with Savannah. He said decision to be made this weekend.

Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo  -  As several of you noted, Vegas should have a dynamite rotation. I suspect #Mets will use six-man there to limit Mejia, Syndergaard innings.

Mike Francesa: "The problem with the Mets is, when Harvey is not the story there IS no story."

Frank Viola to undergo open-heart surgery next week in NY, will be replaced as pitching coach by Tom Signore until can return

Mack Gnats –

        I will be attending the ‘welcome to Savannah’ Sand Gnats luncheon next week where I will meet all this year’s players.

My family has asked me once again not to travel (home to Savannah and back is 70+ miles) at night to the games, due to my past complications from diabetes. I will be attending all of the Sunday 2:05pm games, as well as batting practice/interviews/early innings of selective home night games.

The Gnats open up with a 7-game home stretch, starting on Thursday, April 3rd. It includes a Sunday 4-6 2:05pm day game that I will cover fully.
Anticipation is high here for the arrival of 1B Dominic Smith, SS Gavin Cecchini, RP Akeel Morris, and starters Robert Whalen, Chris Flexin, Robert Gsellman, Miller Diaz, and John Gant; however, we’re going to have to wait to confirm they will be part of the squad until next week.
Sure looks like a championship repeat to me!

Dan-Chat –

       Comment From HG Pennypacker - Your best guess on where and when Stephen Drew finds a team?

Dan Szymborski: I think he may not sign until June unless a team gets desperate. I suspect that Boras’s claim that there’s a 3/39 offer on table is a bunch of rich, creamery bullshit.

Comment From Mikey - Can you explain a little more about “Super Two” status? I hear the term thrown around all the time, and I know it relates to service time/arbitration clock and such, but I’d like some more help understanding it.

Dan Szymborski: The standard is for players to get 3 years of arbitration. But, the top 22% of players with more than two years of service time but not having reached three, also get arbitration. It’s done this way so that arbitration cutoff games are harder for teams to do. So there’s no clear-cut definite date. And if teams all start holding back players a little to not be a super-two, the date simply moves forward in the year. And the extra year of arbitration will disproportionately go to players that are subject to service time gains in a year one, too.

Bill James 50 Fearless Forecasts, 2014

14. Ike Davis will lead the Mets in homeruns, with more than 30.
I’m a big believer in Ike Davis, who was excellent after his return from Triple-A. If he stays on the field, he should out-homer more celebrated teammates David Wright and Curtis Granderson.

48. Matt Harvey will play in a major league game in 2014.
The Mets are trying to be cautious with their once-and-future ace, but I think that Harvey will see some playing time down the stretch, even if it’s in the bullpen.  http://www.billjamesonline.com/50_fearless_forecasts_2014/

Conrad Youngren asked -

OK, Mack.  Originally my question was:  Any Hamilton Bennett sightings this spring?  Projection for his placement? Somehow that morphed into…. The LINE-UP/ROSTER:

SS Rosario
2B Herrera
1B Smith
RF Puello
LF Nimmo
3B Flores
C D’Arnaud
CF Lagares
C Plawecki
1B/3B/LF Wright (our Chipper)
OF den Dekker
IF Cecchini
IF Mazilli
SP Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Matz, Montero
RP Mejia (CL), Familia (8), Ynoa (7), DeGrom (LR)
RP Medina (LOOGY), Lara, H. Bennett (old guy)
And the QUESTION:  What year?
:-) – ‘Hobie’

       Mack – What, no Cuan?

       I like the potential for the roster. My guess this would come in either at 2017 or, safest (Medina), 2018

       I have a few different opinions on players, but why go there.

Bill Metsiac asked –

         Izturis… Astros released him yesterday. He's certainly an upgrade over Q or Seratelli IMO. He's not a regular,  but he'd be fine off the bench. What's your take?

Mack – He’s a solid defensive shortstop that could bring a new level of defensive skills to the UT slot; however, it’s tough to bring a new body in at this point in the pre-season. Still, I love the motivation of an ex-Philly in the clubhouse. At least we’d know the pitching signs.

Pelf –
        Mike Pelfrey is a Wichita State alumnus. Knowing this, the Twins decided to have a little fun with him, and force the introverted pitcher to deliver a pump-up speech to what he thought was the Shocker basketball team in advance of their NCAA Tournament appearance. It was really just his teammates in the other room. Pelfrey, put on the spot, reacted pretty much as you'd expect from him, offering up the least inspirational pep talk of all time. The Twins didn't release this video until today, and the Shockers never actually heard from Pelfrey, but let's be honest: this is why they lost to Kentucky. http://deadspin.com/the-twins-pranked-mike-pelfrey-good-1551149226?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

Game Notes –

        We’re starting to see the bat of Travis d’Arnaud stir a little. He hit his 2nd home run of ST against Stephen Strasburg… sure, the batting average is still under .200, but the slate s erased next week and if he hit two home runs the first week of the regular season, fans will be calling to retire his number.

        Well, if you’re going to have a bad Zack Wheeler day, have it before the season starts. It will be interesting to hear his take on his own day tonight…

        Jeurys Familia did show a little of his old wildness… three walks… but he remained scoreless for the spring training season…


Tom Brennan said...

With Familia, I was watching Gameday updates. He did walk 3 of Nats' best hitters, but then as best I could tell, tool down Ian Desmond on a 3 pitch K. Cool. Hey Mack...tell the Gnats we are watching with keen interest. And I know you are traveling there 1st Class...since you are first class..but would do just as well going coach, since you'd make a fine one.

Ike and Duda will combine for 50 this year...but playing for whom?

That 2017-18 lineup is almost surreal to think about.

Unknown said...

That future team looks awesome. But I still think wright might be manning 3rd in 2018? I would even think of moving wright to short right now and put Flores at third. I know u kind of dont wanna move a sure thing but he seem more versatile than Flores?

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

Parnell and Familia may not rank up there as one of the quality 1-2 punches in the game, but my guess is they will be successful well over 80% of the time. I look for a combined ERA here of around 3.00... ERA's for short inning relievers go up so quickly with one bad pitch...

Mack Ade said...

John -

You'll know when and if Wright needs to be moved. He will be the first one to tell the coaches he's slowing down.

As for short, those days are over for him. I can't tell you how much more difficult it is playing that position over third base.

Unknown said...

Yeah I understand he is getting older, but he stills seem more suitable than a Flores. I don't mind Flores there as well but just seems more logical to me?

Mack Ade said...

John -

I know in my heart that the 2015 SS is not currently in this organization. In fact, he probably will become a Met sometime during THIS regular season, probably around the all-star break. Shortstop is the top priority of this team and it has to be addressed.

Reese Kaplan said...

Cesar Izturis is Ronnie Cedeño is Ruben Tejada is Omar Quintanilla. Their presence on the roster contributes nothing equally.

TP said...

@ Mack
I like both of James' predictions. Ike needs to stay healthy to fulfill. I don't like both Ike and Duda on the roster, but hopefully that works itself out quickly.

@ Reese
I think Izturis' glove is way better than any of the others but I agree with you that the unaddressed issue is that they need an upgrade to starting SS. The backup is not as big a deal, but I think Tejada is an overall much stronger backup than they others.

Reese Kaplan said...

Back in the day Izturis had some speed, so there was that -- but not anymore.

Hey, why not just solve two problems and let Seratelli bat leadoff and play SS? He has shown both some power and some speed. It's all temporary until either Flores or an outsider arrives anyway.

I'm tired of the same old same old. It doesn't work. It hasn't work. It's not going to work. I'd rather lose trying something new than conservatively execute the tried-and-failed solutions over and over again.

Mack's Mets © 2012