#15 3B/OF Dustin Lawley (LR: #17)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 205 lb
Age: 25
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 19th Round, University of West Florida
2014: (AA) .226/.280/.436, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB (57%), 30 BB, 127 K
2013: (A/AAA) .262/.314/.513, 26 HR, 96 RBI, 6 SB (67%), 36 BB, 113 K
2012: (A) .261/.333/.434, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 14 SB (78%), 50 BB, 122 K
2011: (R/A) .284/.323/.510, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 5 SB (50%), 14 BB, 52 K
Lawley forced his way onto the list last year with a highly impressive 2013 campaign in Port St. Lucie but this season has been a little more of a struggle for Lawley statistical wise. Hitting in the middle of the Binghamton batting order, Lawley is only batting .226 with a meager .280 OBP and an astonishingly bad 28.5% K rate.
However, hitting for average and taking walks has never been Lawley's style of play. He's a masher who is expected to hit HR's and drive guys in. From that viewpoint, he's doing a fantastic job still. Almost 50% of his base hits this season are of the "extra" variety and, while his Isolated power rate is down, it still stands at an equally impressive .209.
Defensively, Lawley has been getting a majority of his time at 3B but has begun to struggle with his throws. In only 68 games played, he's committed 17 errors. Long term wise, he still profiles better in the OF where he plays adequate defense and has the offensive firepower to stick in the corners. If he can cut his K rate back down to the low 20% range his average should creep back up to the .250 - .260 range which, with his power, could turn him in a big power bat that could slot in the 5th spot in anyone's line-up.
Ceiling: Late blooming Low AVG, Power Hitting LF (Brandon Moss)
Floor: Power bat off the bench
13 comments:
I always liked this guy but he isn't getting any better.
In fact, he may be slowing down both with a bat in his had but also in the field.
Give him another year in AAA
I prefer Travis Taijeron. Similar K issues, but hits better and, not to put Lawley down on extra base hits, but Travis has him there. Taijeron is just an extra base hit machine.
I view them as equals....
both are 25, both have high ISO rates.
Lawley's ability to play 3rd base though gives him an additional avenue to get to the majors whereas for Taijeron....if a spot doesn't open in the OF....he's screwed.
I would like to see how the rest of the list plays out, but my initial reaction is that there are better prospects in the system then a 25 year old AA leftfielder. It sounds like he has some pop but it also looks like he has been one of the older players on every team he has been on with the exception for his 20 AB’s in Vegas.
Hey Chris
Travis and Dustin really have fairly similar #'s. Taijeron strikes out a little more, but he is .266/.364/.511 career, while Dustin is .256/.313/.470. Travis is closer to being a major league player, I'd think (less versatile without 3B ability, agreed.)
More applicable, what about this year, both in AA? Travis is .252/.364/.497 with 60 RBI in 343 plate appearances. Dustin has been up 100 more times, with just 3 more RBI, and is .226/.280/.436. Travis is statistically ahead of him, IMO. Will either make it? If they can cut down on K's by 1/3, perhaps.
So in your mind Dustin Lawley is a better prospect now than Amed Rosario?
(they're never gonna let up on the Rosario ranking...)
My early prediction is Dustin Lawley will be the opening day 3B in Vegas (yes, Vegas) and be on pace to hit 30+ Hr's next year before he gets called up mid season. I think he'll be next years version of Eric Campbell and get a good amount of ML AB's based on his versatility (LF, RF, 3B, 1B).
In all seriousness, our Minor leagues are even more stacked next year than this year. I just did a quick run down of who I expect will play where (league & position) next year and we have a severe numbers crunch with not only the Rule V draft, but roster spots for players.
Mack, I'll email you my early predictions for next and see what you think when I finish it. I know we don't have a ton of A level prospects, but we have an abundance of B, B- & C+'s in our system.
FYI, in regards to Travis Tajieron, I think I remember ending that he either was a catcher at one point or they were considering turning him into a catcher maybe? Only cuz his name was brought up, does anyone remember which it was? I'm guessing former catcher since he's still playing OF, unless of course that experiment went horribly bad.
Closer -
I don't remember that about Taij.
Email me your list and I'll create a post with it.
I'll tell you this... the goal is to win a ballgame, that's all, and if Lawley can bat .250 and someday hit as many home runs as Duda, I really don't care how much he strikes out.
Nor do I care if they platoon him with another player that can hit the same amount of home runs.
Today's game was a perfect example of whjat a victory was supposed to me... god pitching but a couple of mistakes... but you score more than your opponent.
226/280 as a 25 year old AA "bomber" is much closer to NON Prospect than mid year 2015 call up. Feast/Famine versus AA doesn't project without major work
@Anon
No I do not believe Lawley is a better prospect Rosario in terms of ceiling.
In fact Rosario may have the highest ceiling on this entire list. At the same time Rosario also has the lowest floor because of the magnitude of work his swing needs to remain a productive player.
Lawley is higher on the list at this point in time because he carries 25 HR potential which is something we may never see from Rosario.
Closer already said it best....I can see Lawley being assigned to Vegas, tearing the cover off the ball and being called up to the Mets in 2015. That's not gonna happen with Rosario.
Prospect listing are all tough...
Personally I'm one who weighs the ceiling/floor risk factor, bounces it against the level they are playing at, and places the power and speed tools on a higher pedestal than defense and pure hit tool.
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