Reese Kaplan -- The World Exists Beyond Signing Juan Soto

Let’s get a little more serious about the prospect of NOT signing Juan Soto.  Just remember, even though this team is not the Wilpon Mets, when was the last time you saw the club go after the best of the best and secure the deal?  They missed out on Shohei Ohtani, they missed out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they missed out on, well, fill in the blank.  

Sometimes deals are meant to happen and sometimes they’re not.  So let’s assume for a minute that either the price is simply too high or the attributes Soto found elsewhere were more appealing and he’s no longer destined to wear blue and orange for the rest of his baseball career.  What happens then?

Well, project managers always have Plans B, C and D ready in case Plan A for whatever reason does not come to fruition.  In this case, it’s Steve Cohen relying upon his chosen POBO David Stearns who must consider the alternatives.  With Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino all turning down the QOs the club made, the roster is more wide open than ever.  

Along with them are the other eight free agents no longer on the Mets.  Yep, it’s a lot of heavy lifting from this point forward with or without Soto.  Let’s see how to spend Steve Cohen’s money.

Depending on whose numbers you choose to believe, the Mets have between $145 and $180 million available now that players have departed and nearly all deferred and partial payments to former players have expired.  Think about that for a moment...if the Mets retain their existing players and make a few deferrals, they are on the hook for $154 million.  

Unfortunately they have a lot of vacancies to fill and use the lower figure of $145 million for budgeting purposes you are looking to fill 6 more spots on the 40-man roster above the 34 residing there right now.  It’s entirely possible some will be non-tendered or traded away, but for now let’s think about the best way to spend up to $299 million for the 2025 payroll.

For folks who play with numbers quite a bit, that $145 million to fill just six spots averages out to $24.166 million per person.  Obviously it won’t be spent exactly that way, but it does suggest the Mets are hardly bereft of securing some serious talent to enhance the runs they prevent and the runs they score.  Some of that $145 million will go to increases in pay to arbitration eligible players, but there is still quite a bit to go around.

Right now you could pencil in some short term deals to keep the payroll flexibility going forward.  A good example would be working on a deal for someone like Paul Goldschmidt who is due for a decrease as a result of diminished production and age.  While I’m not advocating him per se, that’s a way to tie up money for just the 2025 season. 

You could look to secure some of the younger free agents in longer term deals who should not be as much of an injury risk nor productivity gamble as someone nearing the end of his career.  Obviously when you become a free agent at 26 and post HOF type numbers as Soto has, you’re looking to spend in excess of $50 million per season for 12-14 years.  

However, for a solid performing player with borderline All Star capability it wouldn’t mean a $700 million commitment.  In fact, if you gang up on extremely solid players like Anthony Santander, Willy Adames, Gleyber Torres, Teoscar Hernandez, Alex Bregman and others it would make for an awesome lineup in some combination in place of less stellar performers like Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil.

On the pitching side of the ledger, many people feel the Mets have a built-in advantage given the history and relationship between Corbin Burnes and David Stearns.  He’ll be looking for $30 million or more for 5 or 6 years which is not chump change, but at just age 30 it might be a worthwhile investment.

Many skip right over Max Fried to go towards an offer for Blake Snell, but Fried would cost significantly less and when healthy deliver at a similar level of performance.  Think about that staff being built...Burnes, Fried, Senga, Peterson and flip a coin for the fifth starter between Megill, Butto or another outside addition like Walker Buehler. 

The bullpen is where nearly as much work needs to be done.  Many innings need to be thrown and right now the bench out there is pretty empty after Edwin Diaz and a few others.  No one knows who will be helping preserve games out there but it’s unlikely many are going to command 8 figure salaries. 

So have at it...what OTHER free agents should the Mets pursue?