Mike Friere - How Do Things Look, So Far?

After last night's come from behind, "walk off" win over the Diamondbacks, the Mets are sporting a 22-19 record.  Not a horrible record by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems disappointing after the 11-1 start to the year, doesn't it?  In addition to the record itself, the Mets are currently in fourth place, 3.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves who lead the division (that's difficult to write).

While none of us are pleased to be in fourth place (again), things could always be worse.  For example, the White Sox are 12-30 to date and look like a favorite to land the first pick in the draft in 2019.  Or, another way of looking at things is to ask yourself a basic question.  Would you feel any different if the Mets had started the season 11-18, only to go 11-1 over the last few weeks to arrive at the same 22-19 record?  I think we would all feel much more confident about the rest of the season if that were the case, even though nothing would be different, which is interesting.

For those of you who are into statistics (which is likely to be a small club that includes Erica and myself),  the Mets' current record covers 41 games played since the start of the season and it is basically 25% of the way towards the completion the 162 game schedule.  You can geek out a bit and use a multiplier of 4 to extrapolate any counting statistic and figure out how it would look by season's end.

For example, the Mets are on pace to win roughly 88 ballgames (22 X 4), which would be close to the record they posted in both 2015 and 2016.  Or, Mookie Betts could be on pace to hit 60 home runs this year (15 X 4), if he continues to play at the same level and he participates in the remaining games to be played.

While that may be fun, it isn't the most accurate way of looking at things.  I want to briefly reintroduce a statistic from a previous series on the same, which is referred to as the "Pythagorean Win Theorem".  If you recall, you can use a team's run differential (runs scored compared to runs surrendered) to calculate an expected win total.  I won't go into the entire calculation again, but the basis of the effort is that successful teams usually have better run differentials then unsuccessful teams.

If we take a quick look at the NL East Standings as of this morning (05/20/18), this is what things look like (with run differential in parenthesis);

Atlanta             27-17 (+64)
Philadelphia     26-17 (+39)
Washington     24-20  (+31)
New York        22-19  (-11)
Miami             17-28   (-87)

Remember that this calculation is more accurate as a team plays more games, since extremes in runs scored and/or runs surrendered begin to normalize over time.  Despite this fact, I think that the numbers have some value now that we have reached the "quarter pole" of the season, so to speak.

So, what do the standings look like if we use the "expected records" based on our formula?

Atlanta          29-15  (+2 games)
Philadelphia  26-17  (same)
Washington   26-18  (+2 games)
New York     19-22  (-3 games)
Miami           13-32  (-4 games)

Basically, the Braves are actually playing better then their record, which is not good news for the Mets when you consider that Atlanta's roster is comprised of mostly young players.  The Phillies are also an up and coming team that is playing well.  The Nationals have underachieved to date and will likely continue their recent rise towards the top of the standings (I think they will be Atlanta's primary competition for the rest of the year, within the division).  Skipping over the Mets for a second, surprisingly enough, the Marlins have overachieved to date and should be A LOT worse then their current record.

The final paragraph brings us to the Mets' efforts to date and if you look at the numbers, they have overachieved, as well (largely due to the unexpected start to the year).  They are actually playing more like a below .500 team with regards to their run differential, which does not bode well for the remainder of the year (which is what most of us suspected without the fancy statistics).

Unless fourth place finishes are the goal, it is time to tear it down and start over, IMO.