From The Desk… “Not Significantly Better”, Matt Harvey, Reloaded, Holiday Debates, Yoenis Cespedes

Good morning.

Mets  Are Improved, But Not Significantly Better Than Last Year's Team –

Should the Phillies land both Machado and Harper it would make them the odds-on favorites to win the East, ahead of the Braves and Nationals, with the Mets slated for fourth place regardless of what they do, and the Marlins last, despite whom they bring in for catcher J.T. Realmuto.

            Mack – Sadly, I agree.

Now, add a healthy Yoenes Cespedes to this lineup and I have a team that can compete for this division.

            Dam those 800-pound squats.

What Matt Harvey Has Lost –

            Harvey was better than he was the year before, and he was healthier than he was the year before that. There’s been a drop in velocity, but Harvey still gets his fastball into the mid-90s, so it seems like he should have enough strength in his arm. From time to time, he can still look like the old Matt Harvey. But that 2018 stat line just isn’t good. It’s also not bad — we can agree to look past the ugly ERA. Harvey looked more or less like a league-average starter. The positive spin is that, by xwOBA, he resembled Chris Archer, Luis Castillo, and Madison Bumgarner. The negative spin is that, by xwOBA, he also resembled Tanner Roark, Wade LeBlanc, and Junior Guerra. Depending on your definitions, Harvey might be a No. 3 with a long medical record. Or he might be a No. 4.

Mack – “xwOBA” is defined as: Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity and launch angle, two metrics measured by Statcast.

Could a reloaded Mets  team be the biggest threat in 2019? –

             

          While an NL East title doesn’t seem likely right now for New York, the much improved squad could prove to be a major test for the Braves in 2019.

Providing the roster remains mostly healthy (a major ‘if’, as always for New York), the Mets appear to be a very formidable foe. Last year’s lineup headlined at times by aging veterans such as Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Bautista has been vastly improved and their always daunting pitching staff led by Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard will prove no less challenging.

The big challenge will involve the additions they’ve made to their lineup – and they may not be finished, either.

Cuban baseball players  will no longer have to defect to join MLB –

             

           Major League Baseball and the sport's governing body in Cuba struck a historic deal on Wednesday, allowing players from the island to play in the big leagues without having to defect, officials said.

The initial deal will run through Oct. 31, 2021, and will allow Cuban players to sign under rules similar to those for players coming from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, MLB and the Cuban Baseball Federation announced.

Mack – I’ve been asked many times on my Twitter account why the Mets never seem to go after Cuban players and I never could figure that one out.

Hopefully, with our new scouting directors, and the return of Omar, that will change. 

How to dominate  your holiday baseball debates –

                       

            If the win ain't dead, it's dying - Jacob deGrom's 10 wins in 2018 became a new low for a Cy Young starter. He appeared in first place on 29 of 30 ballots because, with so much better data both traditional (ERA) and modern (FIP, WAR, ERA+, etc.) available to them, the voters rightly recognized that deGrom's 10-9 record was probably the stat that told you the least about the DeGrom season.

     

Waiting on Yoenis Cespedes -

Yoenis Cespedes is expected to miss roughly half of the 2019 season after undergoing surgeries on both heels, but the possibility exists he could miss more time and perhaps even the entire season.

The Mets are hopeful Cespedes will return and be a midseason trade acquisition of sorts, provided they are still in the postseason race.

            Mack – That sounds about the same that I have been told.

Still… even if this happens… the Mets need to go out an get one more blue chip outfielder and sign him before the full squad reports to the spring camp. We will deal with the crowd out there when and if it happens.