Mack – Overall 2019 Team Analysis

Good morning.

I just finished off my annual series of posts where I break down who we have in the pipeline, by position, and what I think of them.

Now it is time to turn to the parent club next season.

First, let me say this. I have become much more optimistic after watching what the Mets did in the final month of the season. They confirmed my repeated claim that starting pitching comes first in the building of any successful ball team.

You start five guys that give up less than four runs in the first seven innings and you win games regardless of how much power is behind your bats.

All five Mets starters proved that in and September/October:

                                                                                    Sept/Oct – ERA

            Jacob deGrom -                                                      1.80

            Noah Syndergaard -                                             1.73

            Zack Wheeler -                                                       2.86

            Steven Matz -                                                         2.51

            Jason Vargas -                                                        3.27

I don’t care what anyone says. You do this with your five starters, month after month, and you will win your division pennant.

As for the relief pen, we made some progress with the recent trade, but we still have some work to do.

Edwin Diaz is a gem and becomes the closer we sorely need. The loss of Jeurys Familia stung, but Diaz represents a grade up at this position. He's considered one of the top five closers currently in the business.

Seth Lugo is a workhouse (2.66) who will remain a reliever unless he’s called on to start after an injury to one of the five listed starters above. Robert Gsellman had a roller coaster year (1.54-ERA in August… 7.71 in September), but I still think he deserves a do-over. Drew Smith (3.54) had a wonderful freshman season. And lefty Daniel Zamora showed some promise at the end of the season (16-apps, 3.00). But frankly, this was a short list of highlights.

Past that, we are in distress. Recent signed lefty, Ryan O’Rourke, could be a wild card here, and two of last year’s Vegas pitchers… Ian Kroll (43-apps, 2.72) and Bobby Wahl (36-apps, 2.20) deserve a shot here, but my hopes are than the Mets reach into the free agent market to fix the weakest position on this team.

One wild card cold be 23-year old RHP Stephen Villines. The former 2017 draft pick is sailing through the pipeline, with 137-Ks in 94-IP. He’s scheduled to open up in Binghamton next spring but he could easily end the year as the Mets closer.

Moving on to greener pastures, the future of the infield looks solid. One of the great trivia questions next year could be which one will make the All-Star team next season. SS Amed Rosario hit .286 in August and .283 in September, with 5-HRs and 24-RBIs. 2B Jeff McNeil took off like an ICBM, hitting .329 from late July through September (if he did this for the entire season, he would have won the batting title). And then there is 1B Peter Alonso. All he’s done is hit 36 home runs last year for Bing/Veg. It probably won’t be 3B Todd Frazier, but that might change in 2020 when SS Andres Gimenez arrives. Yes, the future of the infield is solid.

Moving into the outfield, we currently have one star, another on the shelf, and another developing. Michael Conforto is turning out to be everything we could desire. Brandon Nimmo has exceeding any of our expectations. And Yoenis Cespedes is a true superstar of this game (if he could stay healthy). This would be an exceptional starting outfield if they were all healthy but, alas, they are not. Cespedes will spend most of his 33-year old body in the training room and there is a good chance we not only will not see him back in 2019, but his talent will be hugely diminished in 2020. The good news is this will be the last year of his existing contract.

Past this we have an oft injured center fielder,  Juan Lagares, who  is a very talented defensive center fielder that had long strides last season offensively (.339) until he hit the disabled list for the umpteenth time in his career. He is supposedly 100% again but we all hold our breath every time a ball is hit to short center and he begins to dive to catch it. Juan turns 30 in March and his body is too brittle to be counted on past a utility role. 

My guess, right now, is that Dominic Smith becomes one of the backups here, as well as being available to play first. 

What we desperately need here, if you want to compete in 2019, is a healthy center fielder that hits around four notches above Austin Jackson.

This negative continues with catching.

I could spend volumes writing about what we have here and who is in the pipeline, but the fact is we need some outside help. I no longer expect a divisional rival like Miami to trade us their star (Realmuto), but there is a fair amount of free agent mid-range talent that would really help firm up this position for us in 2019.

Past that, we would have to pick two from Travis d-Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki, and Tomas Nido.

Pipeline wise, the only high-level hope we have is Patrick Mazeika, who would have to return to the hitting levels he had in 2017 for St. Lucie (.287). He’s get his shot this spring in Syracuse.

Additionally, the Mets gave out this past year the largest international bonus they have ever made ($2.7mil) to 16-year old Francisco Alvarez. He’s a hundred years away, but it’s nice to see an attempt here to solve this chronic problem someday.

Summary:

So, it took all these words to come back to square one.

We need a catcher, a healthy center fielder, and at least two stud relievers.