Tom Brennan - Yasmani Grandal and Loss of a Draft Pick
If the Mets were to acquire Yasmani Grandal, the Mets would lose a # 2 pick as compensation.
Worth it? Or avoid it at all costs?
I think part of that depends on WHERE in the 2nd round the Mets pick.
It also depends on who is doing the picking for the Mets and what their philosophy is.
It seems that in terms of the latter, the selection philosophy has greatly improved - the last 3 second rounders, to me, were all excellent picks, guys you would not wish to lose:
2018 - # 48 overall - P Simeon Woods Richardson - NICE! Long name, long career, let's hope.
2017 - # 59 overall - IF Mark Vientos - SWEET!
2016 - # 64 overall - IB Peter Alonso - AWESOME!
In 2014 and 2015, the Mets had no 2nd round pick, but if I might digress for a second, their 3rd round picks were bad - Max Wotell and Milton Ramos.
Max was traded and subsequently released - THAT was fast...but he was not useless, as he was part of the trade package that the Mets offered to Cincy to acquire Jay Bruce.
Ramos is now with Baltimore and has weak .241/.291/.315 career splits. Ramos was traded for a familiar name, "Future Considerations."
Andrew Church at # 48 in 2014's 2nd round? Stinker.
Matt Reynolds at # 71 in 2013? Very mediocre.
No 2010 2nd round pick - the Mets' 3rd rounder, # 89, Norman Blake Forsythe, also was a stinker.
Second rounder in 2009 at # 72 - LHP Steve Matz....clearly not a stinker. Hopefully, he pulls a "2018 Wheeler" on us in 2019.
So, focusing on more recent drafts, where POWER ARMS (Richardson) and POWER BATS (Vientos, Alonso) were picked in round # 2, the Mets seem to have upped their game on picks in that round.
The Mets should be picking in the 2nd round around # 52 overall in 2019, so it stands to reason that the Mets could lose a very valuable piece if they lose the 2nd round pick for Grandal.
Yet, Grandal is a very fine catcher. But I would go after Wilson Ramos instead, and not lose the draft pick (if I am correct hat he did not accept a QO), based on recent competence in picking 2nd rounders.
Unless, of course, the Mets could nab J.T. Realmuto. But that "nab" could be a lot more costly than losing a 2nd rounder.
We live in interesting times.
P.S. A Tale Of A Lost # 1 Pick:
We all hated losng that first round pick when we acquired the aging Michael Cuddyer. The Rockies used that pick to draft touted righty Mike Nikorak. Jonathan Mayo at the time reportedly loved this guy as one of the top arms in that draft. Well...
In 4 seasons, Mik the Nik has tossed just 55 innings, allowing 62 walks and 48 runs. Tommy John Surgery in 2017. All in all: Ouch.
No telling who the Mets might have picked, but seemingly no loss here if the Mets had picked Nikorak. The draft can certainly be a crap shoot.
21 comments:
Giving up a Nimmo or Rosario vs giving up a 2nd rounder and some cash...well Nimmo was a first rounder and was 10th in WAR for the NL batters last season. He did this while not even playing full time the full year. and got better as the year progressed. Rosario was a top international pick that finally started putting it together at the end of the year. I mean it could be one of these guys and more. Solving the problem from FA seems like a much smarter option. I love how the core of young players did at the end of last year. Keep those guys intact and upgrade at your weaknesses via FA.
Agreed, Tom.......why lose a pick or a prospect (or two) when Wilson Ramos is sitting out there and can be had for just some cash?
I like the idea of Realmuto in our lineup, but I don't like the rumored list of players going the other way in a trade. Our OF is already "light" so getting rid of someone like Nimmo or Conforto is asinine, IMO.
Friday (or Saturday -- don't remember which) I'm running an article about catching options and I agree that FA may be the better way to go unless a name we have not heard mentioned -- Welington Castillo -- could be pried loose for a lesser haul.
Dallas, I agree. I'd get Grandal. But I am not Brodie the Deal Master - we'll have to see what he wants to do.
I like Nimmo, and maybe he can be close to a Yelich. That would be a tough loss. I liked how Rosario was improving last year, and think 2019 will be a big step forward year for him.
Ramos or Grandal, though - even losing the pick, Grandal might be the better bet for the next 3 years. Tough call, bur let's see Reese's upcoming article for clarity!
If we sign Pollock, Nimmo for Realmuto makes sense. And Realmuto is signed (at low cost) for 2 more years, whereas Grandal would require 3+ years at big bucks. We've got some good prospects at C in the minors who are 2-3 years away, so if they look ready when Realmuto's contract is up we can offer the QO and get a draft pick if he walks.
I'd go for Realmuto first, Ramos 2nd, Grandal 3rd.
If I am going to lose a 1st round pick, I would rather lose it for Machado or Harper.
Of course, if Machado or Harper are acquired, I could be ok long the 2nd round pick for someone like Grandal.
1st choice of course is Realmuto.
Bill, Bob, this off season is one of the most fascinating that I can remember. Hopefully, it will be the most successful. You both make very good points.
Big year coming up for Pat Mazeika and Ali Sanchez. Lefty Mazeika - if he starts really hitting again, that would be a big plus. Ali is a beast behind the plate, now he needs to progress a lot more with the bat in 2019.
Grandall is the better catcher but for the small difference between the two, I would just sign Ramos to a 2 year deal. A platoon of Ramos, d'Arnaud is not a bad thing.
I would stay away from Realmuto for the price they are asking and his years of control left.
At this point I would just add either Familia, Ottavino or Miller to the BP.
The interesting thing about losing a QO draft pick is no one will ever know who you were going to pick
Maybe I'm super biased but that young core of hitters at the end of the year: McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto and Rosario were all and fire and the team totally raked even with a dismantled bullpen. Nimmo's OBP for the 2nd half was .446. I can't fathom why you would be willing to trade away any of these 4 young guys basically making the minimum in their prime under control for years to come instead just signing a FA and losing some future 2nd rounder. I'm hoping someone else not in the NL East swoops in and gets Realmunto so I dont have to read about it anymore.
Machado is far and away better than Rosario.
So, if I can get Machado then, I can feel comfortable parting with Rosario.
Great points by Dallas and Bob and Viper. Build on our strengths, get Ramos and keep our guys, or let Rosario go, get Machado and Realmuto, and we'd have a killer line up. Great alternatives.
Mack is right - the Rockies got our # 1 for Cuddyer, but to date, that pick has been a huge bust. Had the Rockies picked someone else, maybe very different. Had the Mets kept it, maybe they hit pay dirt - or they don't. Hard to know.
I do remember when the Mets got K Rod, and lost their first pick, Mike Trout was available when their pick came up.
Dallas is right here,Rosario was starting to come on towards the end and the kid is a hard worker I suspect he can finally breakout and give us what we expected when he was touted as the best minor league.Our core is finally getting it together so it's not time to break that up but only to add what is missing.If we can trade our number one pick worrying about a number two who is way out of our winning window is too much sign Grandal and get the best framer we can for a great staff.Grandal makes our pen and staff better,let's sign Miller or Robinson along with Grandal.
Miller AND Robinson? Go from worst pen to best.
Bob, compensation is a second rounder, not a first.
Tom, a rare oversight by you: The Mets’ second round pick in 2015 was Desmond Lindsey.
If we are going to give Grandal’s money to Pollack and have Realmuto for two years, why not have Grandal for three to four years and keep Nimmo? Nimmo is better than Pollack and three or four years of Grandal beats two years of Realmuto.
Absolutely, Texas Gus. I really felt something was missing. Jury still out on the up-to-now disappointing Lindsey.
I agree with you on GrandaL over Realmuto.... as I see Nimmo having upside that Pollack does not. Pollack could start to decline, and is often hurt.
Why not sign Evan Gattis! RH power bat catcher. WS champ. I haven't read about this anywhere. makes sense to me. grandala & Realmuto I think are overarted
On Age Effecting Performance
Simply this, it is truly hard to make generalizations about any one player's age because it really comes down to a few different variables.
There is the individual genetic aspect, and did their parents age well or not. Then there is how well did that player take care of themself over the years. Were there key injuries to hamper them. Did they eat a respectable diet all along, and did they exercise year round and not just when the Spring Training bell rang. What about the negative behaviors too? They can impact.
In short, is the player they are looking at young for their age or old?
And what about the player's level of consistent motivation, the mental aspect to this game. This is a huge factor, much larger than most teams are setup to qualify. Some players make their money earlier on in their professional careers and then "coast" out. The motivation was the money obviously and now they do not care as much. They could have had a long and potentially stellar career, but the motivation wasn't on that for them. It was simply the money, like most people today really.
In summation, some players bust their butt for the duration of their big league career, while others do not. A MLB team has to factor all this in together, the physical and the mental aspects, then draw a fair and honest conclusion of any veteran player that they are looking at.
It's not just stats in other words. Stats can tell the truth if you look at enough of them. But there really is so much more to weigh in before a team decides on the fit with their ball club.
Opinions Are Like...
Never mind, I already know.
Having said that, I'd like to re-examine now the direction of this 2019 NY Mets team in this remaining off season now that the Winter and GM Meetings are closely upon us.
What I might be hoping for is that the NY Mets management keeps in focus what it truly needs more to get this team to the World Series in 2019. I do believe that it can be accomplished, and it does not have to break the Mets bank to make it happen either.
Okay then...
The goals in order of how many see them...
1. A catcher who can hit and has a future with this team.
2. Lefty pitchers, both relieving and maybe one more starting.
3. Another respectable outfielder.
Potential Solutions to the above:
1. JT Realmuto would be great anywhere that he is traded to. But at what cost, because the Mets are not all that deep at several positions to absorb this kind of a loss of personnel. The Marlins seem to want two or three of our best young players. I'd pass on JT.
What's an option here?
Trading Andres Gimenez singularly, maybe killing two birds with one stone. Idea: Gimenez to San Diego Padres for in return catcher Austin Allen, RP Trey Wingenter, and originally Mets drafted reliever (2014) Brad Wieck. Or Gimenez to the Red Sox for lefty reliever Bobby Poyner and lefty flame throwing starter Darwinzon Hernandez. The Red Sox have not much for Boston's second base.
Would San Diego or Boston bite?
Maybe. SD Padres are currently week at shortstop with Greg Garcia there. They have Luis Urias on second base, but he is 21 years old and has not yet "caught on" in the majors having just arrived.
San Diego would get a high potential middle infielder in Gimenez, while the Mets get a potential high level young catcher that they have nowhere in their organizational system at present, a good and experienced lefty reliever in Wieck, and a hotshot righty reliever addition in Wingenter (age 24).
2. Possibly someone like lefty starter JA Happ. JA is 36 years old (Tom Brennan), but he had a 17-6 won/lost record in 2018 with the Blue Jays and Yankees combined. He also had 193 strikeouts in 177 innings, a 3.65 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. These numbers are very impressive. JA also has been healthy and pitching well the last three seasons. There are probably others out there to consider, but this is a very good example of what might really help the NY Mets achieve their goal in 2019, despite having Steven Matz as their other lefty in this scenario.
3. Assuming that the NY Mets do not trade Juan Lagres, the other inside the system Mets outfielders who should be given an opportunity to stick here are Jhoan Urena and Tim Tebow. It will all depend on how well they do in Spring Training.
Other ideas as potential additions, maybe Red Sox Sam Travis for a utility role.
Anonymous, all good points. To your Happ age point, pitchers don't have to hit major league pitching, an extremely challenging task. Any diminution of reflexes etc. can do a hitter in as he ages. In Pujols' case even, the .330 Albert hit in his 20s is not the .250 hitter in his mid 30s.
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