REST OF SCHEDULE FOR METS : HOW MIGHT THE METS WIN THAT LAST WILD CARD SPOT OVER THE CUBS?

WARNING: 

I drafted most of this article (see italics below) before Tuesday night's historically horrific loss to the Nats, coupled with a Cubs win that night that pushed the Mets 5 games back with 24 to play.  I drafted it in advance, in hopes that there wouldn't be a disaster of a game in between.

Well, there was, and a growing positive vibe for the Mets after the 6 game losing streak, with them about to go to 4 of 5 wins Tuesday night, got dashed, and turned into a bleak vibe instead.  Fans got gut-punched.

Of course, a team never gives up, and Pete Alonso was out there rallying the troups, speaking loudly, while carrying a BIG stick, but that Tuesday game was like a catcher forgetting his cup and then blocking a pitch in the dirt with his groin.  It was beyond excruciating. 

But Wednesday, amidst doom and gloom, they bounced back to beat the Nats into submission. Nice indeed. Incredible Pete’s # 45, and the oft-maligned Cano (last 30 games .328/.363/.560) remarkably goes 3-3 with a HR in his return. 

So to me, there remains hope, somehow, as they are 4.5 games out with 23 to play.  Other teams are around, or slightly ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card race, but the Cubs are the furthest ahead, quite talented, and the clearest and most present danger to the Mets' playoff hopes, so that's my focus.

My article headline poses a question:

"REST OF SCHEDULE FOR METS: 

HOW MIGHT THE METS WIN THAT LAST WILD CARD SPOT OVER THE CUBS?"

ANSWER? MIRACLE CLEARLY NEEDED!

Here we are, on Thursday morning, sitting 4.5 games behind the Cubs with 23 games to go.

Why the Cubs? The Cubs appear to be the Mets chief competitors, being 4.5 games ahead of the Mets going into Thursday - so let's scope out the Cubs' schedule:

A. 4 games in Milwaukee against a desperate Brewers team.

B. Then 4 games in San Diego against a 9 games under .500 Padres team.

C. Then a 10 game home stand, 3 vs. the Pirates, 3 versus the Reds (both weak teams) and 4 against the Cardinals, who they would like to overtake.  Of course, the Cardinals would prefer to trounce the Cubs.

D. Then the final 6 on the road (3 Pirates, 3 Cardinals).

So that is 13 games against weak teams, and 3 against teams of equivalent abilities, but 14 of 24 on the road.  

The Mets would have to hope for 13-11 or 14-10 for the Cubs, or worse, in that stretch.  If they do better than that, the Mets are in real trouble.

Now, the Mets.  Here to me is what the narrow path to the playoffs (wild card) for the Mets looks like to me:

1. A ten game home stand from September 6-15 against the Phillies (3) D Backs (4) and Dodgers (3) - home cooking has to kick in and the Mets will need to win 7 of 10, clearly not an easy task against the league-leading Dodgers and two wild card competitors.

2. The Mets have 3 road games in Colorado September 16-18, followed by 3 games with Cincy, in Cincy, (September 20-22) and 4 games with the Marlins at home September 23-26.  A soft spot for them, if they are still in the race.

If so, in that stretch, the Mets will almost have to win 9 of 10.

3. Finally comes 3 games with Atlanta to finish the season at home.  Hopefully, if the Mets are still in it by then, they will run into a Braves team that wants to get its regulars some rest and the Mets can win 2 of those 3.

Do 1 through 3 and that adds up to 18-5.  If the Cubs go 14-10, the two teams would be tied.

Can the Mets do it?  Four reasons why they can:

1) This team is due for another Mets Miracle.

2) With Lowrie, Cano and Nimmo back, the offense goes from good to potentially much better than good.  Heck, without Lowrie, they just scored 25 runs in 3 games against the Nats.  

3) The pen has been strong (except for Tuesday's catastrophe), as has the starting rotation.  So 18-5 is a daunting challenge, but one that with some breaks - and youthful Pete/Jeff/Brandon enthusiasm - is doable.

4) They did recently have a 27-9 stretch - and now, the hitting is better.  So 18-5, while unlikely, does not seem like a pipe dream.

The path to the playoffs is shaky indeed for the Mets, but still doable if things break right.

Do they make it?  I doubt it - because there have been too many bad bullpen games this year, leaving the Mets at a non-playoff-like 71-68.  It is hard to think more bullpen failures do not lie ahead.

I have no confidence in Familia whatsoever.  I do have great faith in Messrs. Lugo, Wilson, and Avilan.  And...I still hope that Diaz can erase all of 2019 from his memory and pitch like 2018 Diaz from here on out.  They need at least that much bullpen.

Then...maybe.  But it is a LONG SHOT, after Tuesday's horrid loss squeezed their margin for error.