Harry
asked: Mack, who would you pick in the
first round of June's draft?
Mack - Thanks for the question
Harry.
First. This might be the deepest draft, talent wise, since
the early 2000s. We should get four quality picks in the first four rounds.
Second. You never approach a draft by having a specific
position in mind, especially since the player picked isn’t going to make it to
the majors until around four seasons in the minors.
You pick the spoken about often 'best player available' at the
time you make the pick.
And third. You do your due diligence and make sure this kid
is going to sign with you.
In the case of the Mets, 18 teams are going to pick before
you do. It is impossible to determine your pick until the ones above you are
made.
I will say this... my tie breaker would be a power starter.
The system is weak in the lower levels for this position and I would make a
velo pitcher as my tie breaker.
Frank S. asks: Mack,
do you see Luis Guillorme ever cracking the
starting lineup for the Mets?
Mack - Thanks for the question, Frank.
Luis has done a great job in becoming a valuable member of
the Mets 25-man squad. He consistently hit over .300 the past two seasons at
the AAA level and raised his major league bating average from .209 (2018) to
.246 (2019). Add to that his plus defense and there is no better infielder in
the chain that can currently back up the starters.
But look at the math. We have a future HOFer at second, a
rising star at short (Amed Rosario), and an
all-star at third (Jeff McNeil). Luis’ main
position is short and he also has to deal with the fact that Andres Gimenez is right around the corner.
Adding to that, his utility position may also be in jeopardy
after the Mets signed veteran infielder, Eduardo Nunez,
to a minor league contract.
To answer your question, no I don’t, and since he is turning
25 this season, he may be best served being traded after this upcoming season
to a team that will give him a fair shot at starting.
Noel asked: Morning
Mack. You have been a real Debbie Downer in the past when it comes to
predicting where our beloved Mets will finish in 2020. I seem to remember you
predicting a 4th place finish. Now, with others saying that the Mets may have
the best overall lineup in baseball, do you still stand by the 4th place
prediction?
Mack: Thanks
Noel for a good question.
I may be wrong, but off the top of my head I think I said
they will be fighting it out with the Phillies for a 3rd place
finish.
Lineup projections means nothing. Results matter. And for
every plus like what Pete Alonso did in 2019,
there is an Edwin Diaz blowup to balance it off.
It always comes down to injuries and it is hard for me to believe
that the Mets rotation will have another injury free season.
I stand by my prediction of Atlanta and Washington going to
the playoffs as division winner and wild card #1 and the rest is up for grabs.
One new prediction. Watch for wins by Miami in key division
games that would determine the fate of the wide card #2 pick.
Matt S. asked: Mack, who do you, right now, consider the top
5 Mets starters in the chain… and in order?
Mack
– Another good question.
First,
let’s put the elephant back in the field to feed… I do not currently rank
the most talked about ‘prospect’ these past few weeks… 16-year old Robert Dominguez. Sure he hit 99 but I’m not sure he
hit the barn with those pitches. He hasn’t thrown one professional pitch and
comes with no ‘cred’. I hope he quickly runs up the chain, but not yet.
1. Thomas Szapucki - I never
doubted his ability. All he needs to do is stay healthy and this is a lefty
Jake deGrom in the making. He has started in 33 minor league games and has a
combined 2.42/1.10 stat line over 4 seasons. He will be ready in 2021.
2. Matthew Allan – big time draft pick last year…
pitched in 6 games (5 starts) last year for the GCL team and Brooklyn, posting
a 2.67/1.49 stat line. 14-Ks in 10.3-IP, but also 5 walks. Needs to work on
that. Will be 19 years old this season and my hopes is he will pitch in only 3
more minor league seasons and will be ready in 2023.
3. Josh Wolf – The other big pitcher in last
year’s draft. Will be 19 this season. Pitched in 5 GCL games last season: 3.38,
1.25, 8-IP, 12-K, 1-BB. Would love to see him in Columbia this spring but that
might also be a stretch. Could also be ready in 2023.
4. Jordan Humphreys – Like Szapucki, only injuries stands
in the way of this guy. Lost the entire 2018 season to TJS. Prior to that, had
a remarkable season for Columbia (11-starts, 10-1, 1.42/0.72, 80-K, 69.2-IP).
Pitched 2 rehab innings last season for the GCL team. Have no idea where he
will open up at. Rave reviews of his off-season progress.
5. Kevin Smith – The 6-6 lefty, out of Georgia, has
a 2-season stat line of 2.76/1.18, with 158 strikeouts in 140,7-IP. Will pitch
2020 as a 23-year old. ETA could be sometime next season.
Willie
B. asked: Mack, how do you see the 2020
season working through the Astros mess?
Mack – The Houston Astros cheating is tragic, both to the
game and the pitchers that had their stats bloomed due to facing this team.
There are actual pitchers that were demoted after ‘failing’ to get the Houston
batters out.
I am afraid we haven’t seen the last of this. Fan reaction in
opposing home fields will be deafening. And, I expect the amount of HBP efforts
by the pitchers that had bad outings against the Astros to increase dramatically.
2020 could be ugly in the American League.
11 comments:
Maybe the other teams will have more injuries than the Mets this time around. It could help to be good AND lucky in 2020.
Luis Guillorme is greatly helped by the new 26th man in 2020. Too bad they didn’t push it to 27.
Those are 5 very fine pitcher prospects and, hey, there is also Tylor Megill.
Tom -
I am not against Megill rising above all these guys.
There was a starter that, when he played at the same level Megill has played, had made NO Mets prospect Top 10 lists.
His name is Jacob deGrom.
Sometimes pitchers come from out of nowhere. I recently mentioned Rick Reed as an example.
Does anyone really think the Astros were the only ones doing some sort of this (electronic spying)?
Hobie
Of course they weren't, but this involved a World Championship and they deserved being made the example here.
Good Morning, Mack.
I am guilty of revving up the Robert Dominguez hype train a bit, but I think he is going to be
special (in time, of course).
Hey, if Tom can have a man crush on Tim Tebow, then I think the rest of us should have one of our own, right?
Friere -
Sure you can.
Mine is still Ryley Gilliam
I think Luis Guillorme will pretty much be what he is right now, a guy who's brought up as a bench piece/defensive replacement kind of guy. I know he's hit in the minors, but has yet to really earn more playing time at the major league level.
Somehow, I do see the Mets as possibly being better than the Nats and Phils this year. I'm not usually a rose-colored glasses person, but I do believe in the post-season hangover for pitching. That, plus Rendon being gone, brings the Nats down quite a bit. The Phillies are still a flawed team (an awful bullpen), and, for some reason, I believe that Bryce Harper seems to be one of those players who take away from team chemistry. I just don't think they are better than the Braves, nor can they make the wild card.
One thought on the Astros. They may be the most hated team in baseball and I certainly don't condone what they did, but they did knock the Yankees out of the playoffs in 2017 and 2019. For someone who would love it if the Yankees never won another championship, that counts for something. And, YES, if the Astros are playing the Yankees, I'm rooting for the Astros!
My pro-Megill stance is this: he jumped from Brooklyn year 1 in 2018 to Columbia, St Lucie, and briefly in Binghamton. Power arm. I recall Randy Johnson being a big guy who took time to have it all come together. Megill is no Johnson, of course, but I wonder if 2019 was a start of him emerging quickly - I hope so.
Jake did not dazzle stats-wise in his rapid rise through the minors. But Megill has a power arm - and he could definitely become a pen arm, if not a future starter.
Tebow, I will just reiterate that his climb was better than most everyone in the minors not named Alonso - but his missing a lot of time in 2018 and in 2019 really screwed him up. He lost a lot of valuable growth time at an advanced age. This year is do or die for his hopes, and he will need a miracle.
Megill should also follow sage advice given to Edwin Diaz - be aggressive throwing inside. He is big enough to defend himself.
Refine your overall pitching game, but that should be part of it.
A similar-sized righty, Don Drysdale, had great success partly due to be willing to hit 154 batters in his career.
You only get one career. It goes quick. Pitch inside.
Re "cheating"
It still strikes me odd that in an era where you can rely on the Cloud via your iPad for dugout memory, you send messages by semaphore that anyone can see on TV & cry about it.
A corked bat, pine tar under cap bill and deflated footballs are cheating.
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