Mets360 - A 2021 Mets roster with no trades along with one with two deals

 

By Brian Joura October 7, 2020

So far, you’ve seen five writers at the site tackle the question of what the 2021 Opening Day roster for the Mets will look like. We all want to make moves to improve the club and now armed with an owner who seemingly is willing to spend money, it opens up opportunities that might not have been there otherwise. But it’s virtually an impossible task, predicting what potential trades and free agent signings could happen with essentially a universe of one, the guy writing the column. That’s what made the GM Project that we did a few years back so good. There you weren’t operating in a vacuum. Instead, you had 30 people making decisions in the best interests of their vision for their assigned team.

But that’s not what we have now. So, let’s try to move on the best we can. First, let’s acknowledge that all pieces of an offseason are inter-related and what happens in one area can and will influence what you do in another. Second, while you want to prioritize needs – that doesn’t mean that you tackle those needs in that order. If a deal comes along that can solve perfectly, say, your third problem, you make that move without waiting to solve the higher-rated issues first. Because that perfect solution may not be available if you wait for its turn in the order to arrive.

In my mind the main issue is the rotation. Nothing else comes close. And after a pretty big chasm the next need is catcher. And there’s another canyon from catcher to whatever comes next, whether that’s a RH bat or a CF or a bullpen piece. You may think that a bullpen piece rates higher but the Mets are fairly locked in with their relievers if the two guys with player options exercise them, as is expected. Since it’s been brought up, let’s look at the bullpen first.

Returnees from 2020 – Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Castro, Chasen Shreve
Expect to pick up player option – Dellin Betances, Brad Brach
Also in the picture somehow – Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Steven Matz, Drew Smith

Justin Wilson is a free agent and seems like a good guy to potentially bring back. Hopefully, he’s enjoyed his time in Queens and is agreeable to a reunion. Then, interestingly, this is where an ownership that isn’t pinching pennies can come into play. Previously, you’d expect them to retain Gsellman because he’s cheap and has a shot of being serviceable. But being cheap isn’t enough and what are the odds that Gsellman reverts back to his 2016 form? He should be non-tendered. Matz might have joined him if the Wilpons were still in power. It’s hard to justify a contract of $5 million or so on a guy who was outright terrible last year. But $5 million shouldn’t be a deal breaker for Steve Cohen, especially for a guy who returned $13.1 million of value in 2019. Consider him this year’s Michael Wacha – a low-cost upside gamble as a swing man. And hopefully one they won’t give too much rope. Finally, there’s one more chance for Cohen to flex his financial muscle. He can release Familia and remove the temptation for the manager to use him in a high-leverage spot. It’s kind of heartless to do this to a guy who came up through the organization. But the last thing we need to do is romanticize the past.

Now, let’s look at the starters.

Returnees from 2020 – Jacob deGrom, David Peterson
Also in the picture somehow – Lugo, Matz, Noah Syndergaard

The big question is if the Mets need two or three starting pitchers. Are you willing to gamble on the quirkiness of Trevor Bauer, who has never endeared himself to his teammates, has gotten into Twitter wars with former players and college students and who allegedly is only interested in signing one-year deals to maximize his value? Do you go after Marcus Stroman, who might be the second-best pitcher available but one who opted out on his teammates once he had the service time to become a free agent? Do you target Masahiro Tanaka, despite his declining velocity and partial UCL tear? Do you roll the dice on Taijuan Walker, a once-heralded prospect who’s never exceeded a 2.5 fWAR but who is angling for a big deal given his youth and untapped upside? Do you fancy Robbie Ray, who has outstanding stuff but may be a reliever waiting to happen? Or do you want to bank on comebacks from a veteran like Mike Minor or Jake Odorizzi or Jose Quintana? There are a lot of choices and none of them are really ideal. The best path here might be a trade.

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