At 2019's season end, Edwin Diaz was widely hated by playoff-deprived Mets fans. People wanted him gone.
Sugar) did have a terrible season, but still had great skills and the capacity for a rebound season...or was the dude washed up and in need of being discarded?
Turned out that most Mets fans are happy there was no fire sale.
Some, of course, expect perfection from their closers and still want him gone. Do NOT let such people run your club.
As I wrote the other day, Travis d'Arnaud was gotten rid of far too quickly, and the cost of that mistake has enormous: improving the Braves and the Mets desperate for functional catchers.. d'Arnaud's potent bat would have gotten the Mets to the post season. Dumb decisions can have enormous consequences.
We go into this off-season after another losing season, a not-so-fine Mets tradition. PURGE THE CLOSET! DO SOMETHING!
But cold, clear, decision making is needed, not emotional "throw out the rubbish thinking" - because many a time, so-called rubbish contains treasure.
I am not going to consider whether a guy is a free agent or not. If they're that worthwhile, re-sign 'em and keep 'em.
All that said - keep or dump?
KEEPERS:
Edwin Diaz, Jake deGrom: no brainers. They stay.
Seth Lugo had a significant drop off at the end of THE 2020 season. But to me, his staying is a no brainer. The Mets simply lack pitching too hugely and bigly to even think about moving Lugo anywhere. Figure out if he is your starter, or a key reliever, but avoid having him split time between the two roles.
Erasmo Ramirez - not used a ton, but he was great in pre-season and great during the season. Worth a reunion in 2021.
Miguel Castro - I think we saw why the Orioles got rid of the erratic fireballer. But you gotta keep him and see if the young man can figure it out in 2021, because 100 MPH doesn't grow on trees.
Chasen Shreve - 34 Ks in 25 innings, and pitched well over almost the entire season. Career 17-8, 3.74, and lots of Ks. Me? Keep him.
Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson - not great, but unless there is an unlimited checkbook, both (with ERAs in mid 3s) are keepers. More on them below.
WHERE'S THAT TRASH CAN?
Steve "Boom Boom" Matz is a true puzzler. He still throws hard but the ball goes out harder. 66 HRs allowed in 345 innings (1 every 5.2 IP) in his last 3 seasons, and 20-40 after his scintillating teasing 11-1 career start. Lousier second half pitcher in his career (3.63 ERA in first half, 4.66 in second half).
More like Steve Melts, it seems, in the face of adversity: a 1.49 ERA in his 31 career wins, but an 8.30 ERA in his 41 career losses. Use as a reliever? Well, his 6.30 career ERA in his first inning of starts indicates this would be highly risky.
And he's not cheap. To me, a guy who has only won 20 of his last 60 decisions has gotta go.
Rick Porcello: his 5.64 ERA to go along with 1 win in 12 starts follows his prior season 5.52 ERA in 32 starts. That's an awful long stretch of mid-5 ERA. I'd rather gamble and keep Matz. Buh-bye, Porky.
Michael Wacha: 1-4, 6.64 ERA. The injury prone Wacha missed 3 weeks, and didn't pitch well when healthy. 76 HRs allowed in his last 5 seasons in just 550 innings is pretty high, and his 587 hits allowed over than span (and 189 in 161 innings in 2019 and 2020) shows he is very hittable. Too hittable. Parting will be such sweet sorrow - without the sorrow.
Robert Gsellman - lousy 2020, and his ERA in the last 4 seasons is too high at 5.07. Me? Not an easy decision, but I would look outside for someone to replace him.
Jeurys Familia, Jared Hughes, and Justin Wilson: lots of walks between 'em in 2020 (42 in 69 innings). I like Wilson, and a role for Familia is probably necessary, despite his 2020 wildness, so they stay. Hughes is a nice guy but at best a so-so pitcher. I'd keep Jeurys and Justin, but for Jared, I'd look elsewhere.
DELLIN BETANCES? Yankees did not re-sign him, despite his strong career with them. They knew. Deli B is injury-prone (despite the season starting 4 months late and going just 60 games) and wild, too - I think the Mets ought to cut ties.
Every other Mets pitcher in 2020? They can all leave, if they're not gone already.
And only upgrades should be brought back in. Spend huge, or miss next year's playoffs, too.
Deep-in-the-playoffs teams simply don't use guys like those back end hurlers - they use better, usually much better.
Oh, and those teams? They win.
What are your thoughts, folks?
SO....A WHOLE LOT OF HOLES TO FILL.
SYNDERGAARD MAY FILL ONE OF THOSE HOLES BY MID-2021.
EVEN SO, THIS STAFF HAS MORE HOLES THAN SWISS CHEESE.
6 comments:
They may have more holes than Swiss cheese but they stink more than Limburger.
Reese, pretty cheesy. But I thought your one liner was actually pretty Gouda.
That said, there is a huge deficit of MLB-effective talent on this staff.
Aside from Jake, Diaz, Peterson, and Lugo, it could be the largest pitching talent deficit I've ever seen as a Mets follower. It was better after the top 4 in 1962 and 1963 than it was with this 2020 staff.
And Peterson has to prove he can still be effective the second time around (I think he will, just to be on the record with that). All told, they have a TON of work to do to rebuild this staff.
Tom, good calls on pretty much everybody you cited (I especially agree with Erasmo Ramirez - haven't seen much chatter about him).
There are two others that could be mentioned (I do recognize that you only included those that threw in 2020, but . . ) (1) Noah Syndergaard. To me Thor is intriguing. While we know he won't be back until at least June, he will be a free agent at the end of 2021. Do we want to go through the Wheeler thing again and do a '2020 hindsight' on not trading him to get value before he walks? Can you even trade him now before he pitches again? Would you? Or keep him and try to sign him long term, or keep him and offer him the qualifying offer, or see if he can pitch a couple times before the trade deadline and trade him then? (2) Marcus Stroman. Theoretically, he was a 2020 Met. And as a free agent, there are three options: (a) make an all out effort to sign him to a multi-year contract, (b) offer him the qualifying offer and see what happens, (c) just let him walk, thinking he is not worth $19M in 2021.
Finally, a couple of the others: I still would like to keep both Drew Smith and Daniel Zamora around for another year. I think Smith in particular can develop into a serviceable bullpen piece.
BTW, since you offered your opinions on all the pitchers, it is fair for me to do the same with Thor and Stro .. Thor: not that I want to 'dump' him, but he is a terrific trade chip. If he is willing to sign a longer contract prior to the start of 2021, fine, otherwise, assuming he can pitch without re-injury by July, he is a prime trade-deadline deal. He can bring back a haul. Stro: I would make every attempt to sign him to a longer deal. At minimum, the qualifying offer is in order.
Remember1969, I would keep Thor. Possibly trade him end of July. He has IMAGE, and clubs love that. Big market teams would pay up for that. If he returns healthy, sign and keep him.
Stroman...I would only sign him long term if there are no long term alternate options as good, if Mets are willing to forgive and forget his desertion of the team, and if they discern he TRULY wants to be a Met as a priority.
His bailing out cost us the playoffs, assuming he had returned early enough to make 8 starts.
Tom,
We are on exactly the same page on Thor.
I guess I disagree with you somewhat on Stroman. I believe Marcus is the best pitcher on the free agent market and is the best option for one of the three slots that are open. If there was only one starter needed, I may think a little differently, but with the #2, #3, and #4 starters open, he is the best to slot into either #2 or #3. The other options are to sign Taijuan Walker for a couple years. He showed what he can do this year when healthy (the big question - can he stay there). The third starter to obtain would be a young upside team controllable pitcher via a trade, such as Zach Plesac from Cleveland.
A final opinion on Stroman and the COVID thing. I cannot begin to put myself in anyone else's shoes when it comes to this damn virus. I understand that MLB put together a lot of procedures to protect the players, coaches, umpires, and other staff and in general they worked out well. However early on, teams such as Miami and St. Louis had breakouts causing them to postpone games. The virus is terrifying and I cannot hold it against anyone for their actions when it comes to self or family protection. They sacrificed a lot more money that I can even contemplate earning to stay safe. I have to take their word on the reasons for it and not hold it against him/them. Quite a few others, including Buster Posey, David Price, and Ryan Zimmerman all did the same thing for the same stated reasons. If there were other reasons for Stroman and he doesn't really want to be with the Mets, so be it, he does not need to accept a QO or negotiate with them for a new deal, but I for one would welcome him back with no strings or hard feelings. I can't state that his absence cost the playoffs. There were a lot of other issues on this team.
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