10/28/22

Reese Kaplan -- Without a Catcher You Get a Lot of Passed Balls


When you look back at the 2022 season, the lack of productive output from the catcher crew was one of the lowlights that people would point out as a problem in dire need of solving.  

The Mets got a very brief last minute glance at Francisco Alvarez in late September as an almost desperation move to bring both interest and winning potential back to a slumping team, but the move didn't accomplish the latter at all.  

Going forward, the club needs to decide how to handle this position effectively both for the 2023 season and for the future.  

The first name to consider is the alleged defensive wizard James McCann who was signed back in 2021 for a seemingly fat contract when others who play that position were available as free agents or via trade.  While it's true that McCann did get an All Star nod for his 2019 season with the White Sox, but even then he was a semi-regular with under 500 ABs.  

He did turn in highly respectable numbers with a .273 average, 18 HRs and 60 RBIs.  If he'd replicated those numbers for the Mets then this whole topic would not be necessary.  

The 2020 abbreviated season did not produce typical full-year numbers for anyone, but the not-so-hidden gem for McCann was his .289 average.  After having been a mostly .240 or below hitter for his career, two solid batting averages in a row certainly caught folks' eyes.  A guy who could get on base regularly, handle the pitching staff with aplomb and who can deliver decent home run power seemed like a good combination.  

Whether or not it was worthy of the $40 million gamble the Mets took is certainly a matter of debate as he didn't have much of a long term history with the bat.  More importantly, his contract was structured imbalanced with lower level salaries in the first two years and higher level salaries north of $12 million annually for the next two.  


Now to be fair, McCann had a series of injuries during his Mets tenure which included broken bones which obviously are necessary for gripping a bat properly.  During his 2021 season he was just a .232 hitter with 10 HRs and 46 RBIs.  It had to get better, right?  Unfortunately, 2022 was far worse with a sub-Mendoza batting average, 3 HRs and 18 RBIs.  Extrapolated over a full season he'd have been good for 9 HRs and 54 RBIs.  Again, that's not very good.


Coinciding with McCann's offensive disappearing act came the defensive show, bunting and batting average delivered by formerly all-glove-and-no-hit Tomas Nido.  While no one is suggesting he's an All Star in the making, the fact is you no longer felt that a Nido at-bat was a sure recipe for an unproductive out.  

He finished with many more ABs than did McCann, delivered a .239 batting average with 3 HRs and 28 RBIs.  Double those numbers for a full season output.  It's not the stuff of legends, for sure, but he earns next to nothing and his defense seems to have surpassed what the Mets have seen from McCann.  


The real question, however, is for how long and towards what end is the McCann/Nido show going to play out with hefty slugger Francisco Alvarez ready to launch his full time big league career.  

Everyone is well aware of the numbers Alvarez has produced in the minors.  In the equivalent of about two full seasons worth of playing he's hit 58 HRs and driven in 174 while hitting .274 all the time being well younger than the pitchers he was facing.  The sky is the limit for Alvarez, though many foresee him more as a DH in the future than a key cog as the catcher.  

His defense hasn't caught up to his offense and his limited 45 games in AAA suggests he may need to be there to play 5-6 days per week to continue refining how to handle pitchers while also working on improving his lackluster .234 batting average.

While it's easy for people not writing the payroll checks to volunteer that the club should simply cut McCann loose, the fact is he's still due over $24 million for 2023 and 2024.  Yes, the Mets did swallow the Robinson Cano contract to the tune of $37.6 million, but McCann is not a former superstar (aided by PEDs) who delivered eye popping offense.  

No, the Mets are likely better to try to eat half of that remaining McCann contract to open up a spot for someone Tomas Nido can share the catching duties.  Right now Alvarez needs to begin 2023 in AAA without the enormous pressure of being expected to be a Mike Piazza type right out of the gate.  There are usually plenty of older catchers around who would take a single year deal which meant money and playing time.  


Obviously the big name on the free agent marketplace is Willson Contreras still technically a member of the Chicago Cubs.  He's a career .256 hitter good for over 20 HRs and 65 RBIs per season.  He's a three-time All Star and is earning just under $10 million this past year for the Cubbies.  

He'll be looking to get a multi-year deal to take him through ages 31 through 35 or thereabouts.  Consequently with Alvarez in the wings, unless the team is prepared to launch him as a young DH in mid 2023 or in 2024, that kind of deal would block the catching position.

After that the free agent crop is OK, but not outstanding.  Perhaps the next biggest name is Yankee flop Gary Sanchez who hit 16 HRs for the Twins this past year but he's eclipsed the 30 HR level twice while playing in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium.  He's not known as a great catcher and also would likely want a pricey multi-year contract offer.

It drops considerably with guys like Roberto Perez from Pittsburgh, Christian Vazquez who is a backup in Houston, and Mike Zunino who is an all-or-nothing power hitter with a career .200 average but good catching skills.  None of these players seem like great answers as a primary catcher.  Nido is a known commodity and costs way less.  


You could instead take a flyer on someone like Martin Maldonado or Kurt Suzuki to be the backup while Nido gets the majority of innings behind the dish.  

They are at ages where a one-year deal or a minor league invitation to camp would be palatable and wouldn't pose a blockage to Alvarez when he's truly deemed ready.  In either case, it would appear that James McCann's days as a Met should be coming to a buyout end.  

11 comments:

Mack Ade said...

A few things...

1. I don't decide who my catcher will be by worrying about the worst guy I have in camp. In my book, that would be McCann and I would try to deal him off as bad money in a trade with another team that wants to dump one of their financial liabilities.

2. I agree that Alvarez is not ready to be the prime Mets starter, but there is nothing left for him to do in the minors. I also wouldn't play with his head and start him off as a second string catcher (unless you were going to play him the other games in the DH position).

3. Kevin Parada is a mature college buy who will march through the minor league levels this season and will be ready to start for "a" professional major league teamin 2024.

4. Either Alvarez or Parada should be packaged for one hell of a pitcher someday.

3.

Paul Articulates said...

With Parada and Alvarez moving through the ranks, the Mets' future at catcher looks bright. The 2023 season is early to see the benefits of that talent, so the team will have to find a way to make it through. Nido has earned some time there with a GG nomination and some key hits down the stretch. You can't sign a really talented FA catcher in that spot, because you only need someone there until the aforementioned prospects are ready for the MLB spotlight. I like Mack's idea of including McCann in a trade for pitching and letting Nido hold the fort for awhile as a 9 hitter who can do the job defensively.

Tom Brennan said...

I still am the contrarian on Alvarez, in this sense (and of course, assuming he is 100% post-surgery when spring training starts):

We always wonder how a minors guy will do in the bog leagues - will he drop off?

Pete rolled in the minors in 2018 and we all saw 2019 exceeded expectations (I alone projected he'd hit 45, but I am always conservative LOL)

I think Alvarez's 2022 mirrored Pete's 2018, with one exception: Pete is an iron man whose #s (42 HR, 146 RBI) were expanded by playing 159 games. I thin k Francisco hit alomost as well in the minors in 2022 as Pete did in 2018, just in fewer games. If he had 159 games, ALvarez would have projected to 38 and 110.

If he hits .220 with 20 HRs and 50 RBIs in 350 MLB at bats in 2023, I have no problem with that and him teaming up with Nido.

Mack Ade said...

If he only puts in these levels of statistics he will be quickly passed by Parada

PIITBlog by JD said...

I know one thing for certain. Alvarez must be getting near everyday reps behind the plate and at the plate. The Mets can not stunt his development by leaving him on the bench or DH him the majority of the time. If Alvarez is to be the catcher of the future (and I think he will be) he needs to be given the opportunity to take the spot.

It is time for the Mets to move on from James McCann. He is owed a good amount of money over the next two years, but he is the worst player on the roster (maybe Darin Ruf). I value his arm behind the plate and the pitchers seem to like him but he is a liability at the plate. He costs alot and the Mets have a defensive answer in Nido. Nido can also surprise with the bat occasionally. The Mets should go out and trade McCann while eating much of his salary. I imagine Billy could net some prospect depth for him.

I expect a 70/30 type of split come opening day between Alvarez and Nido. Maybe more 60/40 until Alvarez gets his feet wet and feels comfortable. It is important to keep in mind the current starting staff (although up in the air) is very old and may want a most experienced catcher. From watching Alvarez briefly behind the plate, he is very raw. He has a lot to learn and will have growing pains (he is so young!!!). I believe the organization sees him as the future and will do everything they can to get him ready this offseason to be the Mets long term catcher. Get him in the lineup everyday, figure it out. LFGM

bill metsiac said...

Nido IMO is underrated. Once he began playing regularly instead of only part-time, his hitting improved, and he always has been fine defensively.

Few people remember that he won a batting title in AA, but that indicates the potential to be at least decent with the bat.

Alvarez may or may not need more AAA time to refine his catching skills, but Glenn Sherlock is reputedly an excellent catcher coach who can do much for the kid if he stays in Queens instead of upstate.

Anonymous said...

At the catcher position for 2023 I'd go with Alvarez starting and Nido staying in a more backup role. Alvarez simply needs starting experience. To me, he looks like a natural at this position.

With James McCann, I simply do not understand his offensive slide. He once hit pretty decently. So what's the difference now with him. Is he seeing the ball alright?

Anonymous said...

Five FA ideas for 2023.

1. Carlos Rodon. This guy is the left handed bull that the NY Mets haven't had here since Jerry Koosman in the 1960's. He's durable and throws a 98 mph fastball. I repeat, he is a LEFTY. With Rodon onboard, it gives the NYM Max Scherzer and him at the one and two. I'd let Jacob deGrom walk, he hasn't pitched a whole season since 2019 and gets hurt in the MRI tube. Please. He has already stated that he will opt out for 2023. Let him for crying outloud! Please! Go with Rodon here instead, and forget about the the whiny deGrom hanger-on fans. They will be immediately impressed again when the NY Mets win the WS in'23, something they could have done in 2023 if their rotation didn't fold like a cheap suit later season (Braves) and in the playoffs.

2. Noah Syndergaard. The Mets need a verifiable three starter and Noah may be far enough along now in his arm rehab/rebuild to hit 96+ mph on his fastball. Last season he was close. We need the "Thor Thing" back. Comb his horse out Steve and Buck!

3. Brandon Nimmo. This guy is the human embodiment of everything good here. Hustles. Cares. Gets on base. Can hit homeruns leading off and for average. OBP very solid. Get him re-signed no matter and whatever it takes for him to stay the CF here at Citi.

4. Taijuan Walker. He or Carlos Carrasco man the four slot after Thor. Both are realistically still light it up bigtime. One takes the four, the other the five. Can't beat that. Forget Trevor Williams. Why was Trevor even here his stats sheet was paltry.

5. Adam Ottavino. Just like him better than T. May. Stats still impressive and he has the "experience thing" covered which I like later inning.

Syracuse Stuff

Thin roster there for here unfortunately. Howie could start. However, II could see these Syracuse Mets with invites perhaps.

1. Jake Mangum. Why do you need all the so-so players the new GM brought here in 2022 if you have Mangum for the left field?

2. Eric Orze. AAA stats suggest a look in ST for the bullpen.

3. Daniel Palka. 29 HR's at Syracuse in 2022 suggests a look in ST. Could replace fatso at the DH and save the Mets money and dugout snackfood.

Rds900 said...

ALVAREZ IS YOUR STARTER IN 2023 ANY OTHER DECISION MAKES NO SENSE.

Tom Brennan said...

Ray, gotta head into Stevie's office together and tell him we want 400 Alvarez Mets plate appearances in 2023.

Anonymous said...

2023 NYM

Steve Cohen needs to understand that the 2022 Atlanta Braves second half success wasn't by coincidence. The Braves kicked the Mets proverbial hinder-binders in a THREE GAME SWEEP where the Mets starting pitching looked geriatric, and the hitting not much better.

Remember also, the second half of '21 after Jake deGrom had gone down with yet another arm injury, and the hitting became somewhat sleepy minded looking? I actually had to stop following the NYM completely at this time because it looked to me like the team had given up all hope now without Jake. The late season '22 series with the Braves was to me a bad reminder of that 2021 second half poor effort. I just didn't care very much about the 101 game win season after that.

So reasonably speaking, the NYM could have three out of their eight starting fielders as rookies on Opening Day '23. Namely 23 year old Brett Baty at third, 21 year old Francisco Alvarez catching, and then one from the excellent list of their own three MiLB young left fielder possibilities. These include, 27 year old Jake Mangum, 23 year old Mark Vientos, and 21 year old Ronnie Mauricio. All (3) have shown hitting prowess and progress in AAA and all deserve this leftfield ST COMPETITION with the winner taking all.

Sure, some NYM fans (after all this is NY let's face it) and maybe even some management personnel might prefer spending a fortune on a veteran LF like Red Sox' JD Martinez in 2023. But to me, his 2022 stat sheet really doesn't knock my socks off, and the NYM always should be looking to grow their own best young players into everyday starting ones as soon as they possibly can handle it. 2023 LF is the perfect opportunity for this franchise to do so. Come second half, that younger player starting in LF could easily be contributing consistently to the Mets' offense.

This is the route I would prefer seeing this team heading, and not signing some older 36 year old veteran who could realistically be beginning now his own personal talent downslide.