Tom Brennan - Citifield Fences and Impact on Mets' Pitchers. Edwin Wins Big Award

Do Current Citifield Dimensions Optimize Mets' Success Potential?

I wrote last month about my advocating for shortened fences at Citifield for Mets' hitters, because the distance from plate to fence IMO is long - too long.  A subject at times seemingly only of interest to myself and my brother Steve, but I've got the quill here, so it's my choice to address it again, whether you find the subject too...ahem...deep...or not.  I just think it is a subject matter of interest, so off, once again, I go.

My suggested solution was comprised of four things:

1) 10-15 feet shorter down each line, pretty quickly merging back into existing walls as they move away from the foul poles.  The benefit being that long shots into the corner, some will be doubles, and others will sneak in as HRs.

2) Center Field - move from 408 to 401 and instead of a straight line across as it is now, have it curved.   That will add homers and doubles.

3) Get rid of the out-dip in the RF bullpen and have the fence go from CF to RF with a straight-line fence - result being more doubles and HRs.

4) Consider moving all of the other fencing by 3-5 feet.  Result being more doubles and HRs.

All of that would not make it a hitters' park.  It would make it a neutral park.  Maybe 15 more HRs, 15 more doubles, and happier Mets' hitters.

But this article focuses on pitchers, at the reasonable request of one reader. How would it affect them? 

Should fences be left where they at, dawg, or moved in?

Excluding the shortened 2020 season, from 2016 thru 2022, Mets' pitchers allowed 10 less HRs at home than on the road, and had an ERA of about 0.85 better at home than on the road, a sizable difference for sure.   And this year, it is 3.08 at home, 4.00 on the road. Sizable difference, too.

Meanwhile, Mets hitters over those 6 seasons scored 45 more runs on the road than at home and hit 11 more road homers than Citi HRs, on average.  But 2016, when the Mets scored 339 at home but just 332 on the road, it was an aberration, as was 2018, when the Mets scored 134 MORE runs on the road than at home.  

So, it appears that the pitchers allow about 70 fewer runs at home annually than on the road, and Mets score 45 fewer at home.  But even there, stats can be deceiving, as the Mets' team had a horrific 5.65 ERA on the road in 2017, accounting for much of that differential in yearly average scoring vs. runs allowed.  Their pitching at home that year was kind of awful, too, as the home ERA was 4.41.

I wonder if the Wilpons wanted a bigger park for one reason: if you (the Wilpons) were unwilling to spend like Steve Cohen to have true playoff caliber team each year, then larger dimensions would give the impression of a competitive team through closer games - lots of 2-1, 3-2 types of home games, whereas a weaker team in a smaller park may have had a lot of 7-3 and 9-5 losses, with frustrated fans barking all the louder because the team wasn't keeping games as close and thus the Mets seemed more inept, while still losing the same number of games. 

A true analysis on fence depth optimization would involve a much deeper dive than I am doing here.  Annual stats tell you only so much - for instance, if, on the road, you had a few losses where you surrendered 20 runs, those few games would have huge effects on the team's ERA, so you'd want to exclude those outliers in your analysis, etc.  If you lose 5 road games by allowing a combined 75 runs, that distorts season ERA averages significantly.

I still think that the MODEST inward fence adjustments would make for happier Mets hitters, and the pitchers (at least the good ones) would adjust.   I'd still advocate moving those fences in a bit, as outlined above, and see how it helps the team win more - but Cohen's Cohort would have to study it - and study it they should. Home field advantage should be maximized! 

Here are some of the points I made in my recent Mets-hitter-focused article on this subject:

ESPN's Park Chart - click and see for yourself:

ESPN Park Hitter Ranking

It showed that Citifield in:

2022 - ranks 28th out of 30 teams as a hitter's park. Very unfriendly.

2021 - 32nd out of 34 parks.

2020 - 17th.  60 games, based on only 40% of a normal season.

2019 - 26th.  

2018 - dead. last.

2017 - 25th.

2016 - 16th - made the playoffs, hitting well.  An aberrational year.

2015 - 27th.

Citifield, despite 2 fence move-ins, remains a very hitter-unfriendly park.

My theory for moving fences in again as being beneficial.

1) really good hitting free agents will want overwhelming $$ to come to a park that is above average in difficulty to hit in.  

2) as hitters struggle at home, when those 405 flies to dead center are caught, when the ball isn't carrying in the spring (and not great at other times of the season, either) and long drives nestle into gloves, the hitters tend to press and it adds to their not doing as well.  

3) "Other teams' hitters have to play here, too", some say?  Yes, but only for several games a year, not enough for the park to get into their heads.  Repeated drives caught on the warning track can be disheartening.

4) "And won't that affect the pitchers?"  I believe the quality Mets staff will tweak their pitches in consideration of a neutral, and not pitcher-friendly, park.  If they let the pitching go to crap, then the fence move in will hurt.  But Cohen will strive to avoid "crap" with his checkbook.  The only way I can see 2023 differently is Cohen and crew going all in on OFFENSE, scuffling in 2023 with patched together pitching, and promote top minors pitchers in 2024, to be supported by a killer offense.

Since 2015, a quick look at 4 pertinent teams (Yanks, Braves, Phils, and Mets) showed that the teams in the two bandbox parks have the biggest home field advantage:

Phillies: 83 more wins than losses

Yankees: 67 more wins than losses

Mets: 40 more wins than losses

That significant unfavorable disparity tells me the current Citifield fence depths are not optimizing home field advantage. So, it warrants a deep-dive study.

Of course, if you do get Aaron Judge, the fences should absolutely come in. A recent MLB article noted that Judge actually has hit the same number of HRs this year at home and on the road, but it also noted this:

"Let’s not pretend that the short porch doesn’t matter, because it certainly does. Yankee Stadium, this year, has seen 15 home runs that would not have been out of any other park, easily the most in baseball. (Minute Maid Park [9], Wrigley Field [5], and Dodger Stadium [5] are the only other parks with at least five.) That’s true over any time period you like; if you go back to 2016, that number is 90, a full 20 more than second-place Houston."

 - My guess here is, the "HRs in Citi but nowhere else" # is ZERO.

Also, the Mets and their opponents in Mets games hit 28% more HRs in 2022 away from Citifield. I know, a complete fluke.  Next year, there will undoubtedly be 28% MORE at Citifield, because everything evens out in the long run, right?

That's it, fellas and gals.  I'm "deeply" grateful you read this far.  I hope you appreciated this deep dive.  Excuse me, I'm off to my fencing lesson now. 

What say you?

Moving on...

EDWIN DIAZ WINS BASEBALL DIGEST MLB RELIEVER OF THE YEAR AWARD:

How could it be any other way? Best Mets relief year ever. Sugary sweet.

ARIZONA STAR?

SS Kevin Kendall missed virtually all of 2022 following a highly impressive 2021 debut with St Lucie (.327/.421/.451 in 31 games.)  (As a reminder, pre-2021, almost no signee ever started out in low A ball - he excelled there).

Following his late season, recovery, in 3 post season games for St Lucie this year, he had a single, double, triple and walk in 9 PAs.  Now, despite less than 40 pro games, he was selected to play in Arizona (and is playing frequently - and very well).

This kid could be the real deal, perhaps like Jeff McNeil was, while Jeff was on no one (but my) radar screen, which would make Kendall a 7th round steal. My advice?  Remember the name.   When you hear Kendall, stop immediately thinking Jenner, and think Kevin instead.

(Cue the music) We may someday wish we had....Sixteen Kendalls.

A Ruf start to the AFL season for Luke Ritter, who is 2 for 22.

ROCKER ROCKED:

Koo-Mar went two innings last night and gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks.  So, in his 5 AFL innings so far, the fuy the Mets drafted, then un-drafted, has 4 hits and 7 walks allowed on his ledger.  Pretty wild, huh?

Kendall > Kumar.

P.S.S.  Grant Hartwig tossed 2 scoreless last night, as my final note du jour.