Any Mets fan knows their team's chief rivals are the multi-season division champs Atlanta (which wrested the 2022 Division Title away from the Mets based on a tie-breaker formula) and the Phillies (in the World Series instead of the Mets).
Another perspective on home field advantage or disadvantage:
In the last 3 full seasons, 2019, 2021, and 2022, the home vs. away hitting advantage or disadvantage for each of the 3 teams can be seen from these 3 season averages:
Phillies:
12 points higher at home than on road
11 HRs higher at home than on road
28 runs higher at home than on road
Braves:
8 points higher at home than on road
4 HRs higher at home than on road
10 runs higher at home than on road
Mets:
6 points lower at home than on road
7 HRs lower at home than on road
27 runs lower at home than on road
Again, this is just 3 seasons. A longer analysis could reveal different results.
One, though, could presume that if the Mets played their home games in Phillies' stadium, they'd roughly have been 12 points, 11 HRs, and 28 runs higher than they hit on the road, just like the Phillies, and not 6 points, 7 HRs, and 27 runs lower.
So, the differential due to playing in Citi and not Philly as a home park is an 18 point, 18 HRs and 55 runs scored depression.
Those are large differentials.
This impacts signing hitter free agents in Metsville, I'd imagine.
If I was Aaron Judge, and wanted out of the Bronx, I'd sure be wishing Philly had enough cash to have me go there, rather than Citifield. Because I'd almost assuredly hit more HRs and drive in more runs playing near the Liberty Bell rather than near LaGuardia.
Now, in the long term, whether current Citifield dimensions help or hurt the Mets overall where it really counts, and that's maximizing winning, well, that's something for Steve Cohen's gaggle of analysts to delve into.
13 comments:
Morning Tom
I know how you hate to be fenced in.
I this post to Steve Cohen this morning... just like I did with all your boundary pieces.
Your numbers don't lie.
Scoring runs makes it more exciting for fans, so more runs at home means more home fans. However, you have to win to keep the fans, so if Steve's staff takes your suggestion and studies the park, they should determine how to take advantage of what they have. A great site to look at ballpark advantages and disadvantages is Swishanalytics. There they will show how batters from each side of the plate fare against the park dimensions. Fascinating stuff! Here's the link: https://www.swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors/
I kinda always think its weird that MLB does what no other major sports league does in that every team can play in a different setting with different dimensions.
That is true, but think how the game would be different if everyone was in a 1970s version Riverfront Stadium that looked like it came out of a factory blueprint. Fenway Park, Wrigley Field and even Yankee Stadium make the games more interesting.
At least we ain't in Forbes Field, the Jupiter-sized park that in 1966 brought us 3 Donn Clendenon HRs while he smacked 25 on the road.
Tom, I've thought about this over the last couple years. The Mets have built themselves over the last 7 years or so around pitching. More specifically, starting pitching. The large dimensions of Citi Field have aided the Mets since the days of the "5 aces". However, it has become clear it is affecting the offense disproportionately. Citi Field's fences have been moved in twice since it was built and it may be time for more. This could also add a few more seats. I don't mind having a slightly larger park than average and definitely don't want a short porch type of situation. It may be time for a change, depending on the type of hitters the organization wants to focus on long term.
The Mets are moving the right center field fence IN
You won Tom
How about the pitching stats for each team?
Mack, I was driving when I heard that. The people driving in the next lane probably reacted to my exuberant reaction. I just hope it isn't too limited, but anything is better than status quo. When they say what the exact changes will be, I will offer my observations. Then I will drop it if I am not satisfied. They won't move the fences in a 4th time, so this is it.
Woodrow, I am the hitter's advocate. I will leave it to you to research the pitcher's side.
I will add one parting thought on fence depth. Everyone and their mother is down on poor James McCann, the hitless wonder. But I (not seeing most of his ABs) recall seeing several very deep flyouts, each of which is an out which depresses stats. So I looked at his spray chart, and it seems he hit a lot of deep flies. If I was the owner of a team with a tightly dimensioned park, and I could pick up McCann for, say, $1 million a year, with the Mets eating the rest, I would. Here's the chart - am I concluding correctly? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-mccann/12859/spray-charts?position=C&type=battedball
thanks for that link - as I look at that chart, my conclusion is that he MIGHT have hit 3 more home runs with fences in 5', but you can't hit home runs with ground balls to the left side of the infield. McCann has to change those ground balls into line drives. His line drive BABIP looks pretty decent. He will never hit more than 10-15 home runs, but he could he could really raise the BA by getting the ball in the air over the infield more often.
Bill, I hear you, but let's say he had 3 more HRs and 2 doubles. All of a sudden that .190 turns into a .220. Big optics difference.
Also, for 2023, the lack of shift might help him on the pulled grounders even if he keeps his approach.
McCann? Alvarez needs to be given his shot. Nido looks like a good co catcher.
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