5/2/24

Tom Brennan: Was Mets Spring Pitching Success Predictive? DJ Stewart & Austin Troesser


How are the strong pitchers in spring training doing through April?


On March 20, I wrote this about the Mets' staff late in spring training:

HEY!  WHO IS THE BEST?

Coming into spring training, I never expected The Mets To Be “Da Best”…did you?

Relief pitching? Best ERA in baseball (2.93). Best WHIP in baseball (1.12). Best K rate (157 in 129 innings)

Starters? They have the 2nd best ERA (3.12). They have the 4th best WHIP (1.11)

Pitching overall?  Just 11 HRs allowed in 22 games? Toronto has allowed 41.  2.99 ERA is best (Detroit 2nd at 3.69). Seattle 2X Mets, at 5.83. Best WHIP at 1.11.

Remember…no Senga. What a shame the Mets can’t take 26 pitchers north with them. After all, 25 Mets pitchers have an ERA of 0.00, #26 (Butto) is at 0.90, and Severino would miss the cut due to his 1.00 ERA, just 27th best.

REMARKABLE. AS WE WROTE THAT THE METS’ PEN LACKED DEPTH PRIOR TO SPRING TRAINING…WE WERE WRONG.


So...spring training is one thing, the real season is another. Right?

So, Mack asked for a follow-up…

In other words…

“How is the team staff performing in March and April relative to the superlative state of spring training pitching affairs thru March 20?”

First of all, several hurlers who helped build that great March 20 ERA were farmed out or cut. I guess you CAN have too much pitching.

Secondly, the team had a fine 3.48 ERA over its first 29 March/April games.

The starters were 4-10, 3.95 in 150 innings, with 130 Ks.

The relievers? A stellar 11-4, 2.85, with 140 Ks in 110 innings.

The pen has been the strongest part of this team so far.

Starter Adrian Houser wasn’t good in spring training. He got worse since. As in “23.2 innings, 22 runs” worse. He has to be on a short leash right now.

Reliever Tonkin? 0.00 ERA in 7 spring innings. But…

Regular season? In April, he’s pitched (poorly) for the Mets, Twins, and Yanks. 

14 runs allowed in 11.2 innings? Jeesh.

Otherwise, there’s been some regression from spring brilliance, but starter Jose Quintana has pitched decently, with a brilliant outing Sunday (8 innings, one run) pointing to him being our John Tudor circa 1985.

And Tylor Megill got in less than 5 innings in start #1, said “Ouch, I have a boo boo”, and won’t pitch again for the Mets for likely another 2 weeks (brilliant in his first short minors rehabber the other day). 

David Peterson was equally brilliant in his minors rehab outing, and if all goes well, he will join the Mets in 4 weeks, hopefully with Senga ready around the same time.

But, 3 starters have been great. Sean Manaea has been mostly very good, as has  Luis Severino (sensational in his 8 innings of one bloop hit ball on Sunday), and Butto has been mostly Butto-ful in his quality outings. 

A passing meteor, Julio Teheran, was lousy in his one brief, poor start for the Mets, and you won’t find me and Julio down by the schoolyard. I don’t hang out with stiffs.

The pen, outside of Tonkin, has been mostly super strong, but quite a revolving door, as the usage has been great because starter length has not been lengthy (until Saturday and Sunday’s back-to-back 8 inning starter outings), which can be its own lengthy subject.

Reliever Yohan Ramirez stunk and was promptly sent packing, too.

The shock of all baseball has been Rampaging Reed Garrett, whose career stunk…until his utterly sensational April. 

Raley was excellent…then headed to the IL.  

Smith was very good…then headed to the IL.  

Lavender in AAA might have been getting the call…actually, he did…he needs Tommy John surgery, so he’s done for 2024.

Diekman and Jorge Lopez and Edwin have been great, and striking out bunches. 

Adam Ottavino has been outstanding. Dedniel, Foley, and Josh Walker have been fine in short innings.

In all, a mind-boggling 22 pitchers in the first 29 games.


DJ STEWART ROCKS!

Some guys come to the Mets and suck. Since 1962, it is a mighty long list.

DJ Stewart is not on that list, folks.

In 2023 and 2024, if you had a hitter in a span of 213 at bats that hit .234, with a .345 OBP and 11 doubles, 15 HRs and 40 RBIs, you’d think, “that’s Pete Alonso.”

Wrong. It’s DJ Stewart.  

Kudos, dude….you ROCK! Hope you stick right here in Queens.

In fact, Pete Alonso in 679 at bats in 2023 and 2024 has hit .220 with 24 doubles, 54 HRs and 133 RBIs, with an OBP of .319.

If you projected DJ Stewart’s 213 at bats up to 679 at bats, you’d have 35 doubles, 48 HRs, 128 RBIs and an average and OBP that are 14 points and 26 points higher than Alonso.

Maybe? Just maybe?  Pete leaves after 2024, the Mets put DJ Stewart and Mark Vientos at 1B and used the freed up money to sign … oh … I dunno, Juan Soto?

Just spitballing here.


AUSTIN TROESSER

Only the hardest of hard core Mets junkies are spending time thinking about Austin Troesser.  Including me, I confess.

But he was the 135th overall pick last year, which is way high, and he is firing bullets for the St Lucie Mets this spring. 

Last 4 outings? What’s not to like?  15.1 innings, 26 Ks, few hits and walks? Wow. The 22 year old 6’3” righty has slung real good, so remember the name:

TROESSER, THE IMPRESSER.


P.S. Mets lose 1-0 (boring)


9 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Casey: “Can’t anybody here hit this ball?”

Tom Brennan said...

JD Martinez double in 9th would have been a 2 run, game winning HR if the fences were 5 feet closer. Heck, 3 feet closer.

And, regardless of that, Alonso needs to get his hand down on McNeil’s sac fly attempt that ended the game. He beat the throw.

Tom Brennan said...

Matt Rudick has 10 hits and 3 walks for Binghamton in the last 5 games. He is in scorch mode, while 11th overall Parada is hitting .182 (12 for 66

Paul Articulates said...

Hands down would have won the game, but cleats up would have ensured an easier path to the plate in the future.

On the pitching, I am shocked at the WHIP number because it seems to me that there are still waaaaay too many walks. Quintana and Manaea are beginning to learn that less walks equals less pitches equals more innings and hopefully more wins. The 4-10 record for starters is driven by their inability to make it deep enough to be eligible for the victory.

Reese Kaplan said...

If you want an unpopular but scary comparison, look at the career numbers for Daniel Vogelbach who fans would have chipped in to get him an Uber to LaGuardia to get him out of town. Then look at the career numbers for D.J. Stewart for whom people are ready to build statues. They are virtually identical in OBP, OPS and SLG. Big Daniel has a slight edge in AVG. Neither could field. Neither can run. Yet Vogelbach is trash and Stewart is...wait, I´ll think of a proper word. Is ordures a good word? That is French for garbage. I am not now nor have I ever been on the Stewart bandwagon. I´d sooner see Vientos up here since Stewart has an option.

D J said...

Tom,
Adams, who was sent to Oakland, was a relief pitcher the Mets had in spring training. He has had a good year so far for Oakland. Stearns did quite well in assembling the Mets relief pitchers. Now can he do something about the lack of hitting? Is it time to shake things up?

Tom Brennan said...

Paul, the pitchers get paid and many are happy to get to 5 innings and get pulled. Stay healthy, and sign another $10 million contract the next off season.

Tom Brennan said...

D J, I thought we did shake it up when we called up Vientos. I have to stand corrected on him. I thought when he was called up that he had his last option burned. I think because he was called up for the Marte bereavement, that it did not cost him his last option and that’s why they called him up. Heis still listed as one option remaining.

I really would like to see him added to the mix. One thing that would help the hitting, and I repeat it over and over and over again, would be to move the fences in 5 feet. I think JD Martinez would already have at least two home runs if that were the case. That would’ve shook things up right there . Steve and David, do it this off season if permitted to.

Tom Brennan said...

Vogelbum with the Jays? 3 for 22, 1 RBI, 1 run? No thanks