7/17/24

Reese Kaplan -- Which of Two Sluggers Should Be Traded in July?


It’s coin-flip time for the Mets when it comes to the trading deadline.  Yes, we’ve all heard the intention to add a 6th starter, though another reliever would enable them to move Jose Butto into the rotation, but given the impending departure of several starting pitchers at year’s end, the thought behind another member of the soon-to-be six man pitching rotation makes sense. 

Bear in mind, of course, that when Kodai Senga joins the rotation later this month he is the 6th member if indeed you are satisfied with the current five — Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Christian Scott and David Peterson.  

Also remember that Adrian Houser who has been somewhat better in the pen than in the rotation is another starter option.  Then there is Tylor Megill pitching like vintage Tylor Megill in Syracuse (which is not a good thing). 

Today’s debate, however, comes to the offensive side of the equation.  If the Mets are indeed serious about maintaining a wildcard berth into October baseball then they have to make some changes.  Starling Marte is still hurt and his replacements have not lit up the room with their performances.  

Jose Iglesias is all-world with the bat right now and Jeff McNeil needs to be considered at best as a backup since with ample opportunity he is not improving after a putrid 2023.  The rest of the team is pretty much set as is, but...

While the discussion has primarily centered around buying rather than selling, the time has certainly come for the New York Mets to consider whether or not they would be better served through one major sale from the offensive side of the ledger.  There are two candidates to consider who would have appeal to other contenders, yet they have each contributed quite a bit during the dark and the bright days of the 2024 Mets season.

Designated Hitter J.D. Martinez got a late start and was a little slow getting going, but once he did he certainly showed why he has been a professional hitter for the past many years.  His power numbers are a little off but his track record is impressive.  For his career he is a .286 hitter with 325 HRs and over 1000 RBIs.  While those are not necessarily a guarantee to Cooperstown, at age 36 it’s possible he could reach 400 HRs before he hangs them up and it would enhance his appeal.  

For comparison, playing through age 41 Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez had a higher batting average at .312, but he hit 309 HRs and drove in 1283.  If J.D. played for another 4 seasons he would surely eclipse the RBI total and already is ahead in HRs.

What makes Martinez a prime trade prospect is his modest $12 million annual salary and his visible positive effect he has had on teammates like Jose Iglesias and Mark Vientos who have both upped their games considerably with Martinez offering hitting advice.  An acquiring team would be responsible for just about $5 million of that salary and given Martinez’s capabilities there should be no shortage of interested trading partners.

The other obvious bat to consider trading is All Star first baseman Pete Alonso.  While he doesn’t have the type of batting average you’d expect from Martinez, he has more power and tends to drive in even more runs.  With free agency pending he is likely a two month rental for the acquiring team and they must be willing to absorb the balance of his $20.5 MM 2024 salary.  If the Mets keep him, they are facing two possible negative outcomes.  He could walk away as a free agent anyway and at best the team would get a QO draft pick.  

Or they could use their remaining 2024 season to work out a very expensive contract offer for someone whose batting average is making people recall Dave Kingman all-or-nothing type sluggers more than a true All Star.  Getting someone to take on Alonso would be more challenging given his remaining 2024 salary — about $9.5 million.  Still, if a contender needs power desperately or has a first base injury he could be a great fit. 

So the question is would the Mets consider trading away one of their middle-of-the-order bats during this surprising turnaround season in which October baseball is no longer a pipe dream?  If so, which one would make more sense to move? 

Personally, I’m in the “keep J.D. Martinez camp” as he has had a positive impact on other hitters and working towards a return contract for 2025 would not be nearly as expensive as a long term deal would be for Pete Alonso.  A departure of Alonso in trade would save the team money, add prospect capital and create an opportunity to see if finally what Brett Baty is doing in AAA can work during the final two months of this season.  

The club needs to know going into 2025 who is going to be on the team and right now Baty is still a major question mark.  The question would be if the additional offense provided by Iglesias at McNeil’s expense would compensate for the potential downfall of offense by Baty if he plays 3B while Vientos crosses the diamond to man 1B.  No one knows for sure.

15 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I just don't see any major pieces being traded right now but if a gun was put to my head it would be Alonso

If no major pieces of the 26 then yes to trading Baty

Tom Brennan said...

How about ACQUIRING this guy? Mason Miller, A’s

He has struck out 70 in 39 ²/₃ innings with Oakland. The righty’s four-seam fastball averages 100.9 mph.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, what will you give up for Miller? Remember, he is young and cheap…

It would have to be Alonso, but I think Severino brings more and is easier replaceable. Alonso isn’t doing well, but can blow up. Severino has showed you his max. But like Mack says, if you trade Alonso you lose credibility with your fan base and there isn’t a prospect out there that will be worth that. We keep Pete and try. Next year, Baty and Mauricio duke it out at third base. Also, it’s been reported that Vientos at first base missed a tag on Sunday, so we need to accept that Alonso is at least more experienced there, but my eye test of Alonso says that his reflexes are down a notch which is evident in fielding g hard shots. And I’m sure that involves hand-eye coordination, too.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, I don’t think Oakland would want Sevy or Pete. But some of our young prospects not named Sproat might work. This guy would hugely upgrade the Mets’ pen. For 2024, that and solving the DJ Stewart dilemma would make the Mets WS contenders.

bill metsiac said...

My biggest concern with Pete is his seeming inability to improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline.

Every time I see him come to the plate with runners on base, I cringe, especially when he has 2 strikes in the count. Instead of making the pitcher throw him something hittable, it's almost automatic that he'll take a big swing at the low outside slider. He has become a rally-killer, with BAs of around .180 with one or two men on, and .000!! with bases loaded.

If he continues to flail at bad pitches, he should be moved to #6 or 7 in the order.

Even with his desire for the big contract, he refuses to adjust, and that's a major problem, especially in the cleanup slot.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, pardon me as I question your opinion. Technically, any team can be a World Series competitor if they make the playoffs, but do you want to be like the DBacks that got lucky with some one run wins, some teams in offensive slumps, and just two good starters, but the next year aren’t even .500, or do you want to build it correctly and be like the teams that are expected to be there every year?

Viper said...

The Mets shouldn't ignore the fact that Alonso has gotten worse every year.
He is not moving as well, his power numbers are down, his rbi numbers are also down.

There have also been questions about his commitment and leadership within the team. Whether that is true or not, I don't know but it has been filtered to the media.

However, if the Mets are to trade him and possibly Severino, the return has to be worth it. You can't trade them for scrubs.

Another point to be considered is the kids in the minor leagues that are showing a lot of promise and the need to open up positions for them at the ML level. The Mets are trying to build a young, fast team. Somehow, I don't think that Alonso fits that future.




Tom Brennan said...

Unless the Mets start losing all of a sudden, they won’t be selling anybody at the deadline IMO. They will be gearing up for a pennant race.

Viper said...

Forgot to mention:

Marlins for 4 games. They always play the Mets hard.
Yankees for 2 games. Fireworks
Braves for 4 games. Like the Marlins, they love beating the Mets.

At the end, it will be July 28th and the Mets will have their answer and the direction they need to follow.

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, keep in mind that “kids” are often overrated. Baty, to name one.

Mack Ade said...

Let us never forget Lastings Milledge and F-Mart

Rds 900. said...

I'm in the trade JDM camp. The sooner the better.

Viper said...

Mack, just this year after being given a chance:

Mark Vientos, Scott, Nunez, Butto.

Last year Alvarez.

Next year maybe Baty and Mauricio finally puts it all together?. Acuna, Gilbert?

Tom Brennan said...

Soon? Sproat and Gervase.

That Adam Smith said...

Assuming they’re still in playoff position at the deadline, I highly doubt either gets dealt. Guessing that dealing Martinez would be a blow inside the clubhouse, as his integration into the team seemed to help everything click. I imagine that his example and advice have had broad influence. And trading Alonso would set a big portion of the fan base on fire, and I’m not sure they want that kind of heat (particularly if they trade him and then fall out of contention). That said, I’m guessing that they offer him the QO and basically let him walk in the offseason, which would be easier for fans to swallow, and would give everyone months to come to grips before Citi opened for business again.