Reese Kaplan -- Less Soto Scribble and Time for Action

Some folks are patient, waiting in the wings with a slow heartbeat and shallow breathing, making themselves into a low key yet sustainable weapon when it comes to winning a battle.  Others are like vintage Mike Tyson (prior to this past weekend’s embarrassing debacle at age 58), charging in with guns blazing and hoping to catch opponents off guard with the explosive and unexpected depth charge obliterating things in the very first round.  Then there are folks in between who can be patient — to a point.  They can be decisive — to a point.  They can adjust their game play based upon circumstances at hand.

These differentiation come to mind when it comes to the the many hunters attempting to bag the biggest prize in the baseball off season frontier in Juan Soto.  To hear the media folks tell it the in-person meetings this past week with the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets seem to show that this pursuit is in high gear between these three teams while others that have been mentioned in the baseball guesswork like San Francisco, Houston and Toronto, well, it would seem that you tend to convince your fans you were after the best of the best but wound up with a huge swing and miss.

Regarding the New York Mets, let’s get a little bit more attuned to analyzing the three levels at which they themselves can appreciate gaining Soto, accept the high prices for Soto and starting the excuse making for missing out on Soto.  All of these scenarios is entirely possible, but first what is it that you’d be getting?

Juan Soto made his major league debut as a rookie with the Washington Nationals at the ripe old age of 19 by playing in 116 games, finishing his rookie season with a .292 batting average, slugging 22 HRs, driving in 70 runs with a 46 game deficit compared to his competitors.  In 2019 he played in 150 games and while the batting average dipped to “just” .282, he upped the run production numbers to 34 HRs and 110 RBIs.  To streamline things a bit, he’s now finished 7 seasons in major league baseball before hitting free agency.  He is averaging .285 per 162 games with 35 HRs and 102 RBIs.  All of these numbers are outstanding (as well as annual WAR of 6.3).  However, the one that really jumps out is his reversal of youthful aggression where strikeouts outweighed patience at the plate.  Now he’s average more walks than strikeouts per season by a wide margin.  Perhaps that’s why his one year in the Bronx resulted in his highest ever HR total with 41, and continued run production with 109 RBIs. 

On the down side, the annual 6.3 WAR is reduced by his less than stellar defensive play in the outfield.  At this age he’s likely going to roam around in right for the next many years but he most definitely has a long term transition to DH in his future.  Mets fans well know what it’s like to stomach substandard defense in exchange for incredible offense.  Think Mike Piazza.

Win Soto At Any Cost

This approach is as much about accounting as it is about winning ballgames.  There’s no question that if healthy, Soto is annually going to be in the game’s top 5 offensive players.  There’s no reason to believe that magnitude of offense would suffer in Queens.  So think about Shohei Ohtani’s contract, rather than his ability on the field.  The Dodgers did seem to come at the negotiations not just with the $700 million number, but they had him sign major deferrals of that money in order to free up current capital to use to build out the rest of the roster needs.  Towards that end it may be that Steve Cohen is not simply going to wave the biggest checkbook, but that he’s also going to emulate how to run a business.

Swallow Hard and Give Him What He Wants

Soto’s agent is Scott Boras.  The top player agent is never one to volunteer leaving money on the table.  His compensation is based upon a percentage of whatever he can get for his client.  Consequently no matter what Steve Cohen offers to Juan Soto, Boras’ job is to say it’s not enough.  Unlike the Wilpons and others who preceded them, you get the feeling that Steve Cohen will keep upping the ante beyond a comfortable level if indeed he feels that Soto will become the cornerstone of the franchise for the rest of his baseball career.  People won’t be happy if the annual rate crosses the $55 million range but they would accept it as a business necessity.  Word leaked out over the weekend that the Mets offer to Soto is $660 million.  Boras probably wants $701 million or more to get bragging rights for salary.

Hold the Line And Plan Accordingly

Here’s where real baseball becomes a bit more like a fantasy game than the real one.  If you have a finite limit to what you can afford to allocate to a single player, realize that his new deal capturing perhaps 30-35% of your annual payroll makes it very difficult to respond to other roster needs.  Instead of spending say $52 million per year on Soto (deferred or not), what if you obtained two $26 million players to help with pitching and offense, thus reducing the risk of one injury taking out the entire planned 12-14 years of Soto productivity.  The Mets are assuredly working already on multiple roster permutations both with and without Soto (just as they are doing with and without Alonso, with and without Manaea, and with and without Severino).  In this scenario you have to be very sure of your likelihood of obtaining multiple others whose overall WAR would exceed what you’d get alone from Soto plus fringe players you’re left being able to afford.

Right now the decision to be made by Soto and Boras is most definitely holding up other contract offers to other players from being made, so count me among the crowd hoping to have it wrapped up by Thanksgiving.  Still, the longer it takes the higher the numbers are likely to go, so I wouldn’t bet on it happening until closer to Christmas.