OK, folks, mourning time is over...the Mets season is done for 2024 and now it's officially time to consider 2025. There are any number of ways to go but the first thing to bear in mind is how much money is potentially coming off the books for the Mets as the calendar flips after the World Series. Right now the Mets have an insane amount of payroll and luxury tax on their books but it is potentially possible to begin the 2025 season with just $141 million of salary counting against the team.
Although Steve Cohen has deep pockets and the long run in 2024 certainly will whet his appetite for even more, the fact is he is not George Steinbrenner reborn, simply looking to buy his way to a pennant. David Stearns came from a much more frugal budget in Milwaukee and he likely is not going to be advocating the Mets put all their eggs in just one or two baskets. After all, with only Mets MVP Francisco Lindor crossing the $34 million per year salary payment, the club got to within two games of the World Series on the backs of guys like Mark Vientos, Jose Iglesias and a variety of others who kind of helped prove that the most expensive is not always the best choice.
Towards that end, let's look at the Mets free agent contract list in three parts. First there are the players whose contract has expired and they have earned the right to sell themselves to the highest bidder. The second part are a pair of men who have player options and can voluntarily opt out of the contract for 2025. Then the third one is thus far just a list of one -- non-tender candidates who may not be the best choice to wear a Mets uniform next season.
Obviously the first name on the list both alphabetically and in terms of magnitude is the elephant in the room though more often addressed as the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso. His 2024 season was a substandard one for him because for a six year major league career per 162 games he has averaged 43 HRs and 112 RBIs. In 2024 it was down to 37 HRs and 88 RBIs while the batting average dipped to .240. He's likely looking to get a career contract for 6 or more years at a starting point of $30 million per year. The question for fans, media and the front office is whether or not Alonso is a good $180 million investment.
Next on the list would be the two departing starting pitchers, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino. Both have had health issues during their careers and both have performed better at times. Quintana at age 36 for the 2025 season is towards the tail end of his career. His pay would likely drop perhaps to they $8 or $9 million level given his age. Considering what he has delivered when healthy here in New York that might not be a bad 3rd or 4th starter to bring back.
Given the long history with his manager you would think that Severino would have an inside track. He is younger and apparently healthy now, but his adjustment in pitching style was a great step forward after having been missing in action for multiple years, the fact is that he's not fighting for an All Star berth. However, he's likely seeking comfort and security for multiple years. Salary wise he would need to take a cut on an AAV, but he's likely not any better or worse a choice than Quintana though he will cost more given his youth.
J.D. Martinez probably did more off the field to help this club than he did on the field. Multiple players have come forward to declare how his workout routines and game knowledge helped them become more effective hitters. Keep that in mind when he's ready to hang up his spikes as he might be a great hitting coach. For now, though, he's not likely considering retirment. The Mets didn't get all that much from him on the field and he's frankly not worth the money he earned in 2024 to return, particularly if the Mets need to make room for Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty and possibly Pete Alonso. A tip of the cap and gracious thanks, but I can't see him in Citifield for the home team.
On the lower end of the pay scale both Jesse Winker and Jose Iglesias are worth consideration. Iglesias' vibe alone more than pays his modest salary and they will need to have some backup infielders.
Winker is a tougher call for some. He was pretty much invisible during September when they needed him the most but he reinvigorated himself in October. His hostility from former clubs is a bit odd considering how well he seemed to fit in with the Mets. Given his offensive ability and excellent eye at the plate you'd think he's be a welcome 4th outfielder more so than some of the others who served in that role recently.
Then there are the ones who simply make no sense to retain. Harrison Bader was a great defensive player but after a strong start with the bad it was a steady slide downhill. Bringing him in helped the outfield become a more robust unit, but the team doesn't have enough offense overall to pay 8 figure contracts for part time players. If Alonso goes, then most definitely Bader does as well.
Being left off the NLCS roster pretty much tells you that the end of the Mets road has arrived for Adam Ottavino. He was paid little for his history in the game but unfortunately contributed very little as well. Thanks but no thanks.
There are the injury rehabilitation projects in Brooks Raley and Drew Smith. Both put up some fine numbers when healthy but no one knows how soon they could return to the majors while delivering strong work from the mound. I'd offer than incentive laden deals with very little guaranteed money and see if they'd bite. Raley might be more inclined at his age to say yes than would Smith.
The one mystery man in the top eleven is Ryne Stanek. Every time he took the mound I was having flashbacks of a big guy who throws hard but wasn't exactly sure where the ball was going to go. His career numbers suggest he is a credible selection in middle relief and during the playoffs he was one of the few who actually performed solidly most of the time. His salary of $4 million seems worth a repeat for 2-3 years but I'm not inclined to go much higher.
The two gentleman with opt-out clauses in their contracts are in very opposite directions. Sean Manaea will exercise his to force the Mets' hand in raising his 2025 salary from $13.5 million which is a cool million LESS than he earned in 2024. I see the Mets doing just that with perhaps a deal pushing $20 million. Given his steady output that would not be a crazy expenditure.
On Phil Maton, well, the GoFundMe site would easily cover his Uber out of town. He doesn't earn much but was flat out awful when the club needed him. It's unlikely the Mets would cough up the $7.75 million to bring him back when instead they could spend $250K and wish him well with his next employer.
On the non-tender list we're leaving off the guys not on the 40-man roster, but of the folks on the 26 man roster the standout is Paul Blackburn.
I've never been the biggest fan of either David Peterson nor Tylor Megill, but in comparison to Blackburn I would sooner see these guys take the hill in 2025 than another effort from Blackburn. It was a minor trade that paid nothing positive. He earns little but you're not obligated to pay him a dime if you simply no longer feel he's a reasonable alternative to others in the majors, minors, on the trading block elsewhere or available in free agency.
Your thoughts?
9 comments:
I had begun to come over to your Darkseid about Peterson but not after this season
My most steady starter in 2024 and a solid part of my 2025 rotation
I agree with your approach to Manaea
He is worth every bit of $20mil, especially since we really don't know if Senga will return dominant
If Manaea can opt out, and will do so, he certainly has multi-year value on the market. I could see $20 million per, but he'd likely expect at least 3 years. You have to build a team where a guy like him WANTS to stay. Other highly competitive teams would like him in their rotation. He is a keeper.
Winker, if his back is deemed good, is a keeper IMO. Likely not too expensive (2 years @ $5 MM to $7.5 MM a year?), and his bat was reliable. I think his Sept swoon was his back. He brings fire.
Iglesias I keep, too, because we cannot expect Acuna to hit above .220. His debut was sensational but too short to project. Mauricio after a full year out of baseball, and a history of error-heavy defense, is no sure thing either. Iggy is a strong back up who the fans love.
Pete? It would have been great if Baty had a successful 2024, so making a case to not pay Pete was easier. But is Baty ready? He had an extended swoon in AAA, so why can Stearns feel he won't hit well at times in Queens, but also hit .190 in his 3 worst months? This is a big city, big bucks franchise, so they may need to keep marquis Alonso. They could decide that Ryan Clifford will be ready to play 1B in 2026, but while still very young in 2024, his K rate in the minors was high. To me, it is unclear if he will be a successful major league starter to go to war with against Atl, Phil, and LAD, so Pete is a surer bet, albeit an expensive one.
Blackburn surgery to seal up spinal fluid leak. Not sure if he will be ready for start of 2025 season. Quite an odd injury
Removal of my prostate causes a different form of... err... never mind
Have to look at Reese’s article as a splash of ice water to the face on a January morning. As a fan, I wouldn’t mind if this was the transition year. They gave us a great year and to ask for our patience to get under the Luxury Tax isn’t too much of an ask. Yes, I keep Pete if he says ok to five years. I keep Manaea as he is young enough to be a part of the next playoff team. I don’t keep Winker, but may consider Inglesias for the reasons Mack wrote.
I read a positive piece two days ago in the NYPost by Mike Puma in the changes Baty was trying to make and how he was getting closer, but got hurt. I say keep the kid, and let him play 1B, 3B, 2B, LF, RF and be what Nolan Gorman is the the Cardinals. Keep Vientos at 3B, and let Baty work on the MLB offensive production without the pressure of a steady spot on the field. He can move around and concentrate on his bat.
As for Severino, I recall him not wanting to strikeout many guys in April and May and believe once he gets a long term deal, he will go back to that “save myself” mentality. That, plus that he doesn’t back up bases, cover first, or even field his position well, makes me want to pass on him as his body will get thicker and heavier.
Why did you give him such a low grade for fielding? He's one of the 3 finalists for GG among SPs.
This all sounds wonderful but I want the guy who's hitting line is: G 157 R 128 HR 41 RBI 109 W 129 BA .288 OBP .419 SLG .569 OPS .989.....yes that guy make it happen Steve/David because after we add him everything else will fall in place. Steve needs to be like old George S. and send a message the times have changed and for all us old timers here who have lived way to long having the Yankee success rubbed in our faces it's time to even the score!
Bill, I don’t need to be told by MLB baseball how to think. Those same idiots haven’t had Lindor as a finalist in several years.
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