THIS REBUILDING STUFF IS TOUGH, I TELL YA, IT’S TOUGH!
Let’s review 2024 a bit, from the vantage point of David Stearns:
Start with "down on the farm".
In no particular order, Calvin Ziegler had one inning in 2023 due to a few different injuries, and 6 innings in Bklyn in 2024 before needing Tommy John in April. But those were some 7 innings. No hits allowed and16 Ks. Hopefully he will be healthy by mid 2025. But likely arrive in 2027 now. If not for Tommy John, he’d probably be even with Nolan McLean.
Nolan McLean? 2 hits allowed over 6 shutout innings in AA in his last AA start of 2024, in his pro debut season. A bit behind in development compared to Sproat but Nolan hits 98 with a nasty slider. He’s done very well in 2024, despite 4-10, 3.78, and it is a shame he also tried in early 2024 to hit….Kingman power, but unreal strikeouts.
Glad they pulled the plug on that so he can just develop faster as a pitcher. Mid-2025 arrival in Queens, IMO. (Don’t you love that his name is Nolan, too? May he become Nolan II.) His last 52 innings in AA, he allowed just 18 earned runs, which is an ERA of just above 3.00.
Sadly for Stearns, Tidwell, Hamel, and Vasil were AWFUL in AAA in 2024.
BRUTAL stats. Look them up.
You want them in your plans for 2025? I certainly do…to repeat Syracuse and hopefully cut their combined bloated ERAs IN HALF.
And their respective AAA WHIPs of 1.54, 1.56, and 1.75? Ouch.
Only Max Kranick pitched decently in AAA, and he is probably a 6th or 7th MLB starter, or pen arm, in 2025. (Joey Lucchesi?)
They will again need a free agent rotation, 2 or perhaps even 3 of them. Right now, you have Shaky Senga, Peterson and…? Well, Brandon Sproat will emerge in 2025 at some point.
Megill is a cheap, but shaky, alternative for SP 5. My brother says, he is who he is. Massive and mediocre.
Blackburn to me is a 6th starter, and his fix-the-leak surgery sets him back.
Butto as an SP 5? Then what about him in the empty bullpen?
The Mets will make mucho spending where they NEED to spend, namely on Juanderful Juan Soto. If I was Senor Soto, I would have stayed in the Bronx with Judge, until Judge turned into Sludge. Now, I'd certainly consider the side exit. The side that opens towards Queens.
Steve Cohen should go totally for broke here. It’s only Cohen Cash, right? And keep him the heck away from the LA Daggers.
If the Mets had the same starters as in 2024, namely Severino, Manaea, and Quintana, and also Pete Alonso, for 2025, it would be a somewhat easier sell towards Soto. Those 4 are free agents. Yes, if Pete is $$$$ unreasonable, sayonara. But what if his replacement hits like….i dunno, Dom Smith?
That would be BAD.
Even with fistfuls of cash, this will be a tough off season for Stearns.
They HAVE to spend big due to the farm system failures.
The aforementioned Hamel, Tidwell, Vasil, as well as Gilbert, Mauricio, Baty and Williams, all of whom were supposed to either be in the majors, or close thereto, by opening day 2025.
Complete failure of those 7 in that regard (injuries and highly disappointing performances combined), which puts Stearns in a TOUGHER SPOT.
Moving along, Harry Bader was a total fader, in the realm of Mets favorite Albert Almora, Jr. (or even - gasp - Cameron Maybin) in the second half.
Tyrone Taylor was totally groovy and shagadelic in the outfield, but borderline pathetic at the plate after a hot April.
Iglesias was a pleasant shock. But Acuna earned his way into the mix.
Alvarez had his ups and downs, but was decidedly on the upswing in the Dodgers series.
Winker was a fabulous pick up. I want to keep him if his back is OK.
Stearns is brilliant, frankly. Nonetheless, he has his work cut out for him. Oh, I already said that.
Fortunately, oh so fortunately, Verlander’s option for 2025 (which would have cost the Mets $17.5 million in 2025) won’t kick in leaving that huge chunk out of the 2025 spending equation. So, the $65 million the Mets spent on absentees Scherzer, Verlander, and McCann in 2024, is ZERO DOLLARS in 2025.
How do you spell “luxury tax relief”? The hangover is over, Rover.
Stearns has more flexibility financially, but a tough 2025 rebuild ahead.
But…the 2024 rebuild was tough, too, and he did that quite well, by and large, although the pitching wore out as Senga, Dedniel, and Scott were MIA or useless down the stretch.
Mack recently posted this summary re: Mets free agents:
Benny BKG @BennyGreenberg)
Should be an interesting winter for the Mets...
FREE AGENTS
1B Alonso
INF Iglesias
SP Quintana
SP Severino
CF Bader
OF Winker
RP Raley
RP Ottavino
RP Stanek
RP Smith
DH J.D. Martinez
OPTIONS
SP Sean Manaea, $13.5M player option
RP Phil Maton, $7.75M club option
What are your top two off-season moves, if you were David Stearns, to keep the Mets in the playoffs in 2025 and beyond?
And who would you want to keep in the above list?
AFL COMPARABLES
The Mets 3 hitters (Gilbert, Williams, Reimer) through Monday were just 23 for 118 (.195), with a .353 OBP (lots of walks) and a .415 slug %.
How do they compare against the three top hitters on their own Scottsdale team?
Sinai, Liranzo, and Briceno, three prospects for other teams, are a scorching 56 for 132 (.424), with 10 doubles, 3 triples, 9 HRs, 25 RBIs, and 26 runs scored.
So….424 vs. .195.
Question: can we trade our 3 for those 3? I’ll put in five bucks to sweeten the deal if it will help.
23 comments:
Yanks lost. Series over. Let’s get Soto.
You asked for two, but my first three for the offense. Sign Soto for right. Sign Adams for third pushing Vientos to first. Use Baty to trade for Rooker (Oakland) for DH.
Great 3, but it is Baty “plus whom” to get Rooker?
Prediction: they go for broke early on Soto, but he goes to LA. Fall back to Pete and Winker. Manaea back on a three-year deal. A surprise trade nets a starter and an outfielder. Stearns busy in the FA market with relief help.
Not sure. I am sure they may want more because of his years of control. Arb eligible after 2025. But will be playing next year in his age 30 season. Not really someone to rebuild around. Maybe a lower level prospect.
1. I would go after Soto
2. I would also go after Burnes and Fried
3. I would go after Adames
4. I'd go after three relievers with hopes lof landing 2
I wouldn’t expect to get all. My goals would be to add 3 top players to my mix
Jacob Reimer went 2-5 yesterday
He now has 10 RBI in 10 games
That's good, right?
Ok, here goes:
- I leave my young third baseman and the next Adames at 3B. It’s easier to find first basemen than third basemen.
- Reset the tax now that I can. The Mets have about $70MM to spend, so that’s ok.
- Make Butto a starter and look for FA relievers that are cheaper than starters. When is Lavender back? Use Orze, Hamel, Vasil, and Suarez as bullpen depth.
- You can sign Soto and use most of that money, but pitchers break down and Fried has been hurt alot lately. Burnes also has been abused. Notice that Stearns signed pitchers that have thrown fewer innings and had upside. Expect the same.
- Your rotation right now: Senga, Peterson, Megill, Butto, Blackburn. You need three more, minimum two.
- Trade away McNeil now that I can to free up space on the infield.
That is the way to build a long term winner
True. But I'd rather have the other 3 guys who hit .424 like Rogers Hornsby. Hopefully, though, Reimer has earned more playing time and gets in more games. His OBP is very good due to 10 walks..
Gus, I don't think Cohen cares about the reset, but he does care about that 10 slot drop in the first round, so he has another $40 million to spend before that triggers. How much, I'm curious, did the club earn with its deep post season run? That would offset luxury tax. And deep runs into the playoffs increase the franchise image and hence its market value.
McNeil and Marte have contracts that could be partially bought down in trades to save on total salary. If they were traded, I would think each could result in the acquiring team paying about $8 million of the salary in 2025, as a guess.
I keep Marte because it’s his walk year. McNeil has flexibility, so you’ll pay nothing. The Dodgers don’t care about money either, but they reset their tax anyway.
Turns out, the Mets did better vs LAD than the Skankees, and were the 2nd best team in MLB this year. I really liked this team, and I'm sorry to see it dismantled. Everyone seems content to let an expensive Alonso walk and Iglesias be replaced by a prospect. But these guys were part of the heart and soul of why the Mets were so good this year. I suppose Vientos at 1B, Mauricio at 3B, and Acuna in CF might work but that would be a big gamble for a team going all in in 2025. I don't know what Stearns will do or should do, but I do trust him. You're right, this will be a very difficult task for him in 2025.
Additionally, replacing all our FA starters with new FA starters, and expecting even better results, sound ridiculous, and improbable. Subtracting Butto from the bullpen, ditto.
My returnees list, in order of priority are (1) Alonso, (2) Manaea (3) Stanek (4) Winker (5) Raley (6) Quintana (7) Severino (8) Maton (9) Smith.
I am a bit worried about the year to year increase in workload of Manaea, Severino, and Quintana, although all three have shown the ability to throw a lot of innings in back to back years earlier in their careers. If I could keep one of them, Manaea is the guy.
I am not sure I am a fan of Adames. I think it is either Adames or Winker. I am not sure what to think about that little spat in Milwaukee between the two, but one of the things that the Mets seemed to have in 2024 was team character and chemistry. That needs to continue to be successful. I don't know what Adames would do to that - perhaps that kind of thing is a positive spark for a clubhouse.
Also, he showed some power this year, but his overall career stats do not make my eyes pop. He hit .251 this year, but .217 and .238 in the two full years prior. Not great. I keep Vientos at third and re-sign Pete for first.
This is pretty much exactly my priority order. Only spot I might flip is bumping Quintana up to 5 and Raley back to 6. I like Raley but his health is suspect going into next year and I think Q was very under rated even if his year was a bit uneven. I also think as a soft tossing left PITCHER, not thrower, he'll age well and we could likely get him on a 1 year deal, or 1 year plus smallish buyout type contract. I think there's value in that.
Agreed. Not a fan of Adames for the team next year. Also, Vientos has been decent at 3rd. He can work on calming himself and slowing down his transfers a bit but I think that's something he can work on. Love his canon arm from 3rd base. I think we lose that value moving him to 1st.
I can keep myself to just 2 moves but I'll put them in priority order.
1 - Soto Soto Soto!
2 - Front Line starter. Yes to Burns if medicals look good. No to Fried. Could also address via trade.
3 - Resign Alonso but not for more than 6 years 25 AVV. Figure you get 3-4 good years on that contract. If it takes more money he can have a bit more but it has to be deferred to keep the AVV at 25.
4 - Resign Manea - Something along the lines of the Bassett deal. 3 years 20ish avv
5 - Resign Q to a 1 year 12 million dollar deal
6 - trade mcNeil in a bad contact swap for someone who fits out roster better.
7 - Bring back Winker if possible
8 - get a stud 8th inning guy and bring back Stanek for the 7th. More depth here of course.
7 - Resign Inglesias for 2 years, 6 mil per year to bridge the gap to the youngsters and serve as a our backup MI
8 -
One thing abt Soto...as good an offensive player as he is, he is an avg to below avg OF.
Given the roster turnover and the disappointments of the major prospects, 2025 may well be the “transition year” that we were expecting this season. I don’t believe Stearns will block the path of guys like Williams and Gilbert who likely now need one more year of seasoning unless there’s a real difference maker available. Now that he’s had a year to fully evaluate the talent up and down the org, I’d expect Stearns to be busier on the trade market this offseason. That said, I’m not sure how many real trade chips we have. Not sure why everyone wants to trade McNeil, his value is low, he flashed his skills late in the year, and he can play both IF and OF, giving Stearns more room to maneuver. Likewise, I see no reason to trade Marte just to likely take on someone else’s bad contract. Guy can still hit, and not impossible that he has a decent first half and goes at the deadline if we’re not in it.
1. Alonso is the keystone to how they’ll proceed. I’d guess that Stearns would rather not commit big money and years to a soon to be aging 1B, but given what he means to (many) fans, I’d say he’s 50-50 to return. But if some team offers him 6/$160, they likely let him walk.
2. I’m pretty confident we re-sign Manaea. I’d take Sevi back if Stearns believes in him.
3. I’ll be surprised if we sign Soto. Too much risk (for me) to tie up that kind of money for a decade or more on one guy.
4. Keep Stanek. Let Maton and Otto walk.
5. Bring in one #1/2 starter. This might be the big trade.
6. Winker may want a FT job, but if he’ll come back as our long-side DH, I’d be fine with that.
7. I’d keep Taylor and let Bader walk.
Adam, not a bad strategy at all. I still want Soto, though.
My brother Jim is a Yankees fan - I asked him about Soto fielding - he gave him a B, so that indicates slightly ABOVE average. Jim started for his HS BB team many years ago, so he has an eye for what is good and what is not. I could not render an opinion, other than that Soto is not Clemente defensively.
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