SAVAGE VIEWS – FEELING CONFLICTED

 

Once upon a time, pre-expansion, the Montreal Canadians were allowed to sign the top two French Canadian amateurs to contracts before any other of the original six were allowed to make their selections. This was during a period when Canadians totally dominated hockey.  We are facing a similar dilemma today as the Dodgers are able to attract the top players at every position since there is no salary cap.

Hockey fixed its problem to create a more equitable playing field, and the sport has blossomed since. Every major sport with the exceptions MLB has adopted a salary cap. It’s simply outrageous that only a handful of teams can be considered playoff contenders. 

The other 20 or so teams will continue to struggle both on and off the field. The high draft choices who are successful will eventually wind up signing long-term contracts with other teams or get traded for a new round of prospects. It’s a never-ending cycle.

As a Mets fan in the post-Wilpon era, I’m delighted that cost is not the overriding factor of whether or not to sign someone. On one hand, I support David Stearns desire to control payroll by limiting long-term deals and on the other envying the Dodgers with their devil may care attitude.

We are weeks away before pitchers and catchers report for spring training. I’d be surprised if Pete Alonso is not a Met by then, but we’ll see. For all the transactions made by the Mets this offseason, only a couple stand out. Signing Juan Soto was obviously a coup, and AJ Minter is a solid addition to the pen. Nothing else really stands out. 

We brought back Scott Manaea and replaced Severino and Jose Quintana with Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes. Our rotation remains a question mark as we wonder whether Senga will be our ace and whether Montas can return to past form. And, of course, will Brandon Sproat be ready to make a significant contribution this season.

The Mets finished the season as the number two overall team in MLB. Right now, they probably rank between 5-7 with the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves and possibly Yankees ranked ahead of them. Last year the Mets received lackluster performances from Nimmo, McNeil, Alvarez and Alonso and still gave the Dodgers a run for the money. It’s reasonable to expect bounce back years from this group which should make for a dominant batting order. This lineup, assuming Alonso is signed, has the potential to have five players hit over 30 homers.

The pen brings back many familiar faces. We still have room for at least one top end reliever. No doubt, we will need several reinforcements during the season. Building depth is important.

At this point, I’m not willing to make any projections for the upcoming season. I expect we will be playoff bound but I’m not sure how well we compete against the Braves and the Phillies. Don’t forget the Nats are going to be a much-improved team.

Ray

February 4, 2025

Remember 1969: Survey Time

 

Remember's Ramblings – Volume 2, Article 6

February 04, 2025

 

Open Thread:  20 Questions

  

It’s so time to stop talking about roster construction and who is going to play first base.   With the Hall of Fame voting having been done in January, I have been wasting a lot of time resurrecting a concept I came up with a few years ago that I call ‘Alternate WAR’.    Those that know me know that I really dislike WAR.   I do not understand really how it is all done and what its differences are.     I got into looking back at my Alternate WAR calcs over the last few days and thought I’d write a piece on it, but found that I ran out of time.   I started installing a new hot water heater this morning and like all projects, it took a bit longer than I like.   The good news is that we have hot water from the new heater and the old one is completely disconnected!  

So..with my writing procrastination and limited time, I’m going to kind of cop out and put out a survey for all of our commenters about the upcoming 2025 season.  When comments are complete, I will save the results and run another piece in October or November to crown the best prognosticator among us.     

 

These are just the standard prediction type questions, speak up now if you want to gloat later!     I will apologize in advance for the low-tech operation of this - I am not a webpage techie that knows how to make this into an easier format.   This will just be the old fashioned comments will do! 

 Team Results

(1)   Mets final 2025 record:    (2024 record = 89-73)

(2)   Total number of Runs the Mets will score:  (2024 runs = 768 scored)

(3)   Total number of Runs the Mets will give up:  (2024 = 697 allowed)

(4)   Place in the NL East Standings:  (2024 – tied for second with Atlanta behind Philly)

(5)   How far will they get:    (2024 – lost 4-2 in the NLCS)

Hitting

(6)   Mets Home Run leader:   (2024 Alonso with 34)

(7)   Mets Batting Average leader: (>200 plate appearances) (2024 Iglesias with .337)

(8)   Mets RBI leader:   (2024 Lindor with 91)

(9)   Mets Games Played leader:   (2024 Alonso with 162)

(10) Mets Doubles leader:   (2024 Lindor with 39)

(11) Mets Triples leader:    (2024  Nimmo/Taylor/Marte with 3)

(12) Mets Stolen Base leader:  (2024  Lindor with 29)

(13) Mets OPS leader:  (>200 plate appearances) (2024 Lindor with .844)

(14) Mets Position Player WAR leader (2024 Lindor with 6.9 bWAR)

Pitching

(15) Mets Wins leader:  (2024 Manaea with 12)

(16) Mets ERA leader:  (>40.0 innings)   (2024  Butto with 2.55)

(17) Mets Saves leader:  (2024 Diaz with 20)

(18) Mets Innings Pitched leader:  (2024 Severino with 182.0)

(19) Mets Strikeouts leader:  (2024 Manaea with 184)

(20) Pitching WAR leader:  (2024 Manaea with 3.0 bWAR)

                       

That’s not too hard .. comment away – let’s see what we all think!  

 A couple extra credit questions if you wish

Who will win a post season award and which one(s)?

Which Met most needs an updated picture on Baseball Reference?

Remember’s Reminiscing:   February 04 Birthdays

 

Just one:  Happy 61^st Birthday to Jeff Gardner!  

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Offense Worse in 2025 But Perhaps Improving

It’s taken nearly the entire offseason, but this past week the Mets have actually been involved in reshaping their thus far inappropriately flawed roster.  While right now the 2025 Mets offensively appear to be inferior to the playoff bound version from last season, there has been more noise about moves and potential moves from the front office as the clock ticking approaches hearing damage warning level with Spring training beginning in just one week.

Before we launch into what can still be done or what should be done, let’s first examine the contention that the offense is inferior to what was on the field last year.  Thus far there is no first baseman, we guess Jeff McNeil at second base, Francisco Lindor at shortstop and maybe Mark Vientos at third base.  Still injured Brandon Nimmo is in left field, the AAAA twins in center field as starters despite both batting right handed, and Juan Soto in right field.  There is no DH.  Francisco Alvarez returns behind the dish. 

No one is denying that the $50+ million per year right fielder Soto is a better hitter and more than capable of addressing the Pete Alonso void.  So for purposes of this exercise, let’s productivity-wise assign Soto vs. Alonso.  That’s a 2025 win.  Then we have McNeil vs. McNeil.  That’s a push.  Ditto Lindor.   Ditto Vientos.  Nimmo vs. Nimmo is a great unknown as no one can predict how many games the man can play or how he must alter his swing to compensate for the discomfort from plantar fasciitis.  In center field Harrison Bader was more about glove than bat.  His replacement Jose Siri is more of the same for less money and less offensive output.  Tyrone Taylor is a push with Tyrone Taylor.  Francisco Alvarez is a push with his 2024 version.

So if you look at it there is one 2025 victory in Juan Soto.  Then you have a lot of the same returning, but still no first baseman and no DH while hoping for health and/or rebounds from a variety of 2024 season under performers. 

OK, so now let’s see what can be done to help.  One very interesting trade rumor that came up this past week was Tampa Rays’ first baseman Yandy Diaz.  While not exactly the kind of household name many alternatives would be, he’s been very solid since arriving to the major leagues from Cuba.  For his career he has been an extremely solid hitter.  His first four years were spent as a part time player between 2017 and 2020.  During that period he had 686 ABs and hit 17 home runs, drove in 77 and batted .280.  He became a regular in 2021 so it makes sense to evaluate what he’s done in his last four years.  He has then averaged .291 with a 162 game average again of 17 HRs and 77 RBIs.  What’s especially impressive is his OBP of .376, SLG of .438 and OPS of .814.

If you’re looking for a point of comparison, a current Mets broadcaster while playing first base for the club hit .296 while averaging 15 HRs and driving in 86 while producing very similar other numbers.  When you think about it, what Diaz is doing is actually pretty good. 

Unlike Alonso, Diaz is more like a leadoff or number two hitter based upon his ability to make contact and get on base which is why his RBI numbers are a little suppressed.  Why he might be an especially good fit for the Mets right now is that he is going to play this year at age 33 with the final year of his current contract the only financial obligation of a mere $10 million.  An option exists for age 34 in 2026 at an increase to $12 million.  He could either be retained while the club pursues another conspicuously attractive free agent at the top of the market or cut loose if they happen to land him. 

Now what it would take to get Diaz is probably going to amount to prospect capital.  The Rays are not looking to increase their payroll nor age their roster by moving people like Starling Marte or Jeff McNeil.  No, here you would be looking to sacrifice one top 20 level prospect who could likely help in 2025 and another lower level wildcard prospect.  Is that too much to pay?  Probably not. 

Worst case scenario, the Mets somehow land Diaz and reunite with Dave Kingman.  Problem?  No, now both the first base position and the DH position vacancies have been handled admirably. Then the 2025 offense might even be able to withstand the other positional question marks with the addition of not one but two solid bats to add to the Juan Soto acquisition.

Get it done.     

2025 Draft Prospect #93 - LHP - Landon Beidelschies - Arkansas

 

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

#93 - LHP - Landon Beidelschies - Arkansas                 

20/years old           6' 3"               225

 Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 

Beidelschies served as Ohio State's closer and earned Cape Cod League all-star honors as a freshman in 2023, then became the Buckeyes' No. 1 starter last spring. He transferred to Arkansas, joining one of the deepest pitching staffs in college baseball. The Razorbacks have five arms who could crack the top three rounds of the 2025 Draft, and he has the best combination of stuff and probability of pitching in a big league rotation.

After working at 91-94 mph and topping out at 98 with his fastball as a sophomore, Beidelschies operated in the mid-90s and got more swings-and-misses with armside run up in the zone during fall practice. His 83-85 mph slider has tremendous depth and destroys left-handers. He doesn't use his changeup much but it too has promise, operating in the mid-80s with fade and tumble when at its best.

Beidelschies has a strong 6-foot-3 frame and repeats his delivery, which features a short arm action. He provides strikes but needs to improve his command because his fastball gets hit and righties pound his slider when it catches too much of the plate. If he can maintain the velocity he showed in the fall and do a better job of locating his pitches, he would profile as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

1-22-25 –

Just Baseball: 2025 MLB Draft – Top 80 College Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-college-prospects/?s=03

65. Landon Beidelschies – LHP

HT/WT: 6’3/225 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Arkansas | Age: 21.3

After excelling as a true freshman at Ohio State, Beidelschies turned into one of the best starters in the Big Ten in 2024, striking out 91 batters in 84.2 innings.

A physical southpaw, Beidelschies works with a shorter arm swing and some deception. He relies heavily upon his fastball/slider combination, throwing both at an 89% clip in 2024.

The fastball can be explosive upstairs in the low-to-mid 90s, getting up to 98 MPH. It can get steep when pitching down in the zone, but there’s exceptional carry on the top rail, and will miss bats at a high clip.

The mid-80s slider is equally devastating when he’s on. It’s a firm breaker with lower spin, but fantastic bite and backfoot capabilities to righties.

He has feel for a firm mid-80s change-up that projects as average and a deeper curveball, but that’s used sparingly. There’s a need for more development in a third pitch to stave off relief risk. He was one of the most prized arms in the portal and will pitch for Arkansas in 2025.

 

https://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/baseball/roster/landon-beidelschies/9935 -

Career Highlights 

OSU Scholar Athlete (2023, 2024)

Academic All-Big Ten (2024)

ABCA/Rawlings NCAA Division I East All-Region Second Team (2024)

 

2024 (Sophomore)

 

Was the Buckeyes' Friday night starter, starting 15 games on the mound

Led the pitching staff in strikeouts with 91 in in 84.2 innings tossed

Finished the season with a 6-7 record and a 4.15 ERA

Recorded a career-high 12 strikeouts against West Virginia on March 15

On D1Baseball's Midseason Player Position Rankings list, was the 84th-best starting pitcher

Was a Preseason All-Big Ten selection

 

2023 (Freshman)

 

Made 24 appearances, including one start, on the mound in 2023

Led the Buckeye pitching staff in saves with seven

Fanned 45 batters in 30.1 innings pitched

Recorded a career-high four strikeouts at Cal State Bakersfield on March 12

 

Prior to Ohio State

 

In 2022, tossed three no-hitters and one perfect game

Finished the 2022 season with a 1.24 ERA, 87 strikeouts and held opponents to a .107 batting average

Also made appearances at the plate in 2022, batting .422 with two homeruns and 32 RBIs

Was the 2022 YSN Baseball MVP, Division II Player of the Year and an All-Ohio First Team selection

Throughout his career, also earned First Team All-AAC, AAC Player of the Year, First Team All-District, Prep Baseball Report (PBR) First Team All-State, PBR Co-Pitcher of the Year, YSN All-Star and Perfect Game Preseason Underclassman All-American honors

Was a PBR Elite 25 pitcher

Played summer ball for Team Ohio Pro Select, which was the 11th ranked team in the state of Ohio

 

https://www.swtimes.com/story/sports/college/sec/2024/06/24/arkansas-adds-to-pitching-depth-with-ohio-state-transfer-landon-beidelschies/74199563007/ -

Arkansas baseball received a commitment out of the transfer portal Monday night, with Ohio State left-handed pitcher Landon Beidelschies announcing his pledge to the Razorbacks on social media.

Beidelschies was the Buckeyes' Friday starter this spring, going 6-7 with a 4.15 ERA. He struck out 91 and walked just 31 batters in 84⅔ innings while holding opponents to a .231 batting average.

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2024/11/7/2025-mlb-draft-top-sec-prospects-part-2   -

LHP Landon Beidelschies - Arkansas

Prospects Live Ranking: #60

After an impressive freshman season as a reliever at Ohio State, Landon Beidelschies excelled for the Buckeyes in a starting role in 2024. In 15 starts on the mound, the lefty went 6-7 with a 4.15 ERA over 84.2 innings pitched while striking out 91 hitters. Beidelschies heavily relies on his fastball/slider combination, throwing them almost 90% of the time. The fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s and has occasionally reached upwards of 98 MPH. The mid-80s slider is firm with good bite. Both pitches generate a ton of whiffs. He also has a mid-80s change-up that’s rarely utilized. He’ll need to develop that third pitch and improve overall command to improve his draft stock. A successful year transferring into the SEC will also help, however.

 

https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/news/ohio-state-pitcher-announces-transfer-to-arkansas-01j16ebva731 -

In 2023, he had seven saves and an 0-2 record.

After only having one start in 24 appearances during the 2023 season mostly as a closer, Beidelschies took on a more consistent starting role this past season. He started all 15 of his appearances, posting a 6-7 record with a 4.15 ERA. In 84.2 innings pitched, he surrendered 71 total hits, 41 runs, 10 home runs and a .231 batting average.

Beidelschies joins an Arkansas team led by longtime coach Dave Van Horn that has had some impressive success during the regular season over the years despite a lack of production in the postseason. Excluding an 11-win season during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, the Razorbacks have finished with at least 40 wins every year since 2017.

2025 Draft Prospect # 94 - RHP - Jack Lafflam - Brophy Prep (AZ)

 

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

#94                 Jack Lafflam             RHP, Brophy Prep (AZ)

18/yrs old                6' 6"               174

COMMITTED - Arizona 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 

The best player to come out of Brophy Prep in Arizona was a tall right-handed pitcher, Ryan Castellani, a Rockies second-round pick in 2014 who touched the big leagues in 2020-2022. Lafflam gives the Phoenix area high school another big righty who could give the program its first draftee since 2016 after he showed off good stuff, feel and metrics on the summer showcase circuit, pitching at events like Perfect Game National, PG’s All-American Game, the Area Code Games and at USA Baseball’s 18U National Team Camp.

With a long, skinny 6-foot-6 frame, Lafflam gives off a Jack McDowell-like vibe. While his fastball typically sits at around 90-92 mph, he can dial it up to 95. It plays up because it has very good life to it, he throws it with good extension and his cross-fire delivery makes it hard to pick up, so it misses a fair amount of bats. He has both a slider and a curve, and the former is the better offering with more consistent shape, and both breakers are typically thrown in the upper 70s. He has a solid changeup, selling the 78-80 mph cambio well.

Lafflam tends to be very consistent in finding the strike zone despite his unorthodox delivery, and teams that value analytics will likely appreciate his high spin rates, extension and how far down the mound he gets. There might be some concern about his really narrow frame and if he’ll be able to add strength, but the starting pitcher kit he has should intrigue teams in considering the Arizona recruit in the first few rounds.

1-27-25  -  Just Baseball –

2025 MLB Draft - Top 80 High School Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-high-school-prep-prospects/

1-27-25  -  Just Baseball –

2025 MLB Draft - Top 80 High School Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-high-school-prep-prospects/

75. Jack Lafflam – RHP

HT/WT: 6’6/180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Brophy College Preparatory (AZ) | Commitment: Arizona | Age: 18.9

Lafflam is one of the most projectable arms in the entire country. At 6’6, 180 pounds, his body is really skinny and lanky, which reminds scouts of Triston McKenzie’s current frame.

He’s an uber-athletic specimen on the bump with an interesting crossfire delivery, though there’s work to be done with his repetition. This has led to his command being lackluster, but his stuff has everyone intrigued.

The fastball shape is a bit generic, acting more like a cutter from a wider release, though Lafflam holds low-90s well and has ventured into the 95+ MPH bucket on a couple of occasions.

Given the projection, he should be sitting in the mid-90s in due time. Lafflam has two breaking balls in his arsenal, though they can blend together. 

The low-80s slider projects better than the upper-70s curveball, featuring impressive spin rates and tons of sweeping action across the plate.

His final pitch, a mid-80s cambio, features heavy sink and run, though he’s still learning the feel of the pitch. As he grows, the expectation is that Lafflam’s body control and command should take a step forward.

Lafflam plans on staying in-state and attending Arizona if he goes unselected.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=786436 –

2024 National Showcase 

Jack Lafflam is a 2025 RHP/1B with a 6-6 175 lb. frame from Scottsdale, AZ who attends Brophy College Prep. Long and lean athletic build with huge physical projection remaining. Full hand over head delivery, loose and athletic actions in his mechanics, fast and loose arm to a 3/4's arm slot. Fastball topped out at 95 mph with lots more there, will cut fastball at times. Threw a sweeping slider as his breaking ball with up to 15" of IHB. Change up had two-seam action at times with even bigger life at times. Three potential plus pitches with command and the projection to get better across the board. Very high ceiling talent. Good student, verbal commitment. to Arizona. Selected to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

 

https://www.brophyprep.org/news-detail?pk=1356664 –

Brophy senior pitcher Jack Lafflam has committed to playing and attending the University of Arizona in the fall.

“I am excited about the development side of the program and playing at the next level,” said Lafflam, who originally made his verbal commitment on Sept. 22, 2022. “Coach Vance and Coach DeRouin have transformed their pitching program. They are one of three college teams using the new pitching technology. I am looking forward to it.”

Laffam will play for Head Coach Chip Hale, an Arizona alum and former Major League Baseball player and manager with the Diamondbacks.

“The coaches were the main reason behind my decision,” said Lafflam. “Chip Hale is a great guy and, talking to the players, they love to play for him. Many of my family have attended the U of A, and I have always been a fan.”

Lafflam went 5-0 on the season in 2024 with a 1.50 ERA over nine starts.

“We were competing,” recalled Lafflam of the team's success last season. “We won a lot, but they were close games a lot. Competing to the last out with that group was fun and bonding. We overcame a lot of adversity, but we did it together. It was a good year.”

He was an All-Premier first-team selection and AzBCA and AIA 6A Conference second-team all-state choice.

2025 Draft Prospect # 95 - OF - Angel Laya - Eastlake (CA)

 

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

# 95                Angel Laya               OF, Eastlake (CA)

18/yrs old    LHH    6' 3"   190

COMMITTED - Oregon

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45

 

Eastlake High School in California has had three first-round picks and five total selections in the top three rounds over the years, most notably Adrián González, the No. 1 overall pick in 2000, and Marcelo Mayer, who went No. 4 overall in 2021. Laya doesn’t fit into that kind of top of the first round conversation, but the projectable tools he showcased at Perfect Game National and the Area Code Games will assuredly have scouts pouring into Eastlake once again.

All of Laya’s tools come with considerable ceiling. He’s a big, strong outfielder with a pretty left-handed swing that can do some damage. He has some feel for the strike zone and flashes some approach, though that part of his game is a bit raw. As he refines his feel for hitting, that should allow him to tap into his considerable raw power, something some scouts feel will be plus in the future with outstanding bat speed.

Laya is athletic with a little speed and has recorded some excellent run times in the past, but he appears to be slowing down a bit as he adds strength. It probably means he’s best suited for an outfield corner, but the power potential and his plus arm should profile just fine there. If the Oregon recruit shows the ability to tap into his tools consistently in the spring, he’ll move up this list.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=714041 –

2024 National Showcase 

Angel Laya is a 2025 OF/2B with a 6-3 190 lb. frame from San Diego, CA who attends Eastlake. Big and strong athletic build. Left handed hitter, hits from a spread and balanced base, has a smooth and easy swing, looking to pull the ball but is able to stay behind it and drive it hard the other way as well, stays well timed, projects well as a hitter. 6.77 runner in the sixty. Primary outfielder on defense, has easy athleticism through the ball and shows good pace and body control through the ball, makes accurate throws with nice carry, should be a plus defensively. Good student, verbal commitment to Oregon.

2025 Draft Prospect #96 - 3B - Justice de Jong - Poly Prep (NY)

 

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

#96                 Justice de Jong        RHP, Poly Prep (NY)

17/yrs old                6' 3"               210

COMMITTED - Duke

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

 

Poly Prep in Brooklyn is going to be busy once things warm up this spring, with two intriguing Draft prospects for evaluators to check out, and both likely have futures on the mound. Miguel Sime Jr. brings power as a pitcher only, while de Jong has legitimate two-way talent, though scouts prefer his now stuff and projection on the mound after seeing him pitch well against premium talent on the summer showcase circuit.

At 6-foot-3, de Jong fits the description of the prototypical high school right-hander with a ton of upside, especially when considering he’s yet to focus solely on pitching. He has the chance to have three at least above-average pitches when all is said and done, starting with a fastball that’s up to 96 mph with life and more in the tank to come. He has a hard downer curve that could be a true out pitch, and he also has a quick, late slider in his arsenal. He can also throw his changeup for strikes with excellent deception and will throw it at any time. He can find the strike zone with all of his offerings.

Should de Jong go on to Duke, he’d likely get the chance to keep playing both ways, with plenty of power in his right-handed swing. He’s a hard worker with plus makeup, so it’s not difficult to envision what he could become, with No. 2 starter type of a ceiling, should he start his pro career and put the bat aside.

1-27-25  -  Just Baseball –

2025 MLB Draft - Top 80 High School  Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-high-scool-prep-prospects/

37. Justice de Jong – RHP

HT/WT: 6’3/215 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Poly Prep Country Day (NY) | Commitment: Duke | Age: 17.11

Another two-way talent in this class, de Jong is a lanky, physical specimen that many prefer as an arm. He controls his body well and moves fluidly down the mound, requiring little to no effort in his delivery. There’s good arm speed and pitchability in his profile, plus he fills up the strike zone with all three of his pitches.

The heater is more of a dead-zone shape and doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he sits in the 92-94 MPH bucket consistently and has crept into the mid-90s in shorter stints this summer. He’s likely a sinker guy at the next level, though his deception helps it play up a bit.

His upper-70s curveball can get a bit slurvy, but it’s a true sweeper with up to 15+ inches of horizontal movement and good depth. It tunnels off the heater well and breaks sharply away from righties.

The change-up is a viable weapon to lefties with firm shape, too. If scouts prefer the bat, it’s potentially big right-handed pop with bat speed and leverage, though there’s swing-and-miss to his profile. De Jong won’t turn 18 until after the draft, which helps him become more of a model-friendly prospect. He’d be eligible as a junior in 2028 out of Duke if he goes to campus.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=728491 –

2024 National Showcase 

Justice de Jong is a 2025 3B/RHP/1B with a 6-3 210 lb. frame from New York, NY who attends Poly Prep Country Day. Big and strong young build. Primary third baseman on defense but graded out higher at this event as a pitcher. Right handed hitter, sets up in a wide and slightly open base, small hand drop load, rotational upper body swing, has bat speed and strength and can impact the ball, power really projects when he learns to extend better through contact, 106 EV in batting practice, best when he's turning the barrel over. Step by step actions on defense, clean glove work, still learning his footwork, plenty of arm strength. Has a full arm stroke on the mound and a high 3/4's arm slot. Fastball was up to 95 mph with up to 18" of IVB. Curveball was an outstanding pitch with 20" of horizontal life and nice late sharpness, also threw a quality change up while over matching some very good hitters. Extremely young for the 2025 class which adds to his projection, especially on the mound. Excellent student, verbal commitment to Duke.

 

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/aag-spotlight--justice-de-jong--ny--2025- -

DeJong, a Duke recruit, was a standout late in the summer on the national scene where his two-way prowess applied pressure from all angles. The sturdy and athletic, 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander who will not turn 18 until after the Draft shows some power potential at the plate, but it is his polish and poise, along with big arm strength on the mound, that stand out most. Equipped with an advanced arsenal that includes sharp spin, de Jong has a chance to make even bigger jumps in coming months, especially given his hard-working and competitive mentality.

MACK - MY Sunday Observations

 Good morning.

 The Mets signed 2B/3B Nick Madrigal to a one-year contract

$1.35M with a chance at $500K in performance bonuses

9.4% career K rate

One MiLB option year remaining                    

8-DRS (defensive runs saved) and an OAA of +7 at 3B in his career. Possible late inning replacement for Mark Vientos

    I wasn’t sure I was even going to report this one. The last thing I expected the Mets to be spending late money on is another utility infielder. This screams to me that Ronny Mauricio will probably not be ready, and Jeff McNeil may be reassigned to left during the period that Brandon Nimmo still needs to speed up. Just guessing, but at least one of these is probably a good guess.

The fan thingy happened on 1-25 and the comments and videos of Mets players were all over X.

I walked away with two distinct points:

      SNY Mets      @SNY_Mets

      Carlos Mendoza says Luisangel Acuña will have a "huge role" on the       

      2025 Mets

 

      Keane      @kranepool

      David Stearns mentioned that Kodai Senga is healthy and ready to go, in fact Jeremy Heffner is in Japan working with him

 

First of all, you would never say either of these things if they weren’t true.

Acuna playing a “huge role” means he will not be sent back to Syracuse. Because of roster restrictions, this pretty much puts a lid on a Candelita return this spring. Does he start at second? Will he be the super infield utility guy? Details to follow, but he will be around.

As for Senga, again, you don’t say somebody is healthy only to find that person coming to camp on crutches. I still believe he has a lot to prove before we should all call him the Mets ace, but a healthy Senga is going to make it a lot easier to put together a winning rotation.

 

My predictions as to which team will open up with the Mets top prospects:

AAA – Syracuse:  Brandon Sproat. Ryan Clifford, Jett Williams, Brett Baty, Drew Gilbert

AA – Binghamton:  Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Douglas Orellana, Christopher Suero, Jesus Baez, Nick Morabito

A+ - Brooklyn:  Jack Wenninger, Eli Alkeney, Ronald Hernandez, Boston Baro, Carson Benge

A – St. Lucie:  Daiverson Guiterrez, Nick Roselli, Jeremy Rodriguez, Yonstan Henriquez, Simon Juan, Willy Fanas, Jeffry Rosa

Rookie – FCL Mets:  Yovanny Rodriguez, Christopher Larez, Edward Lantigua

Rookie – DSL Mets:  Elian Pena

 

Mets Relief Pen 

The return of Ryne Stanick may have put the lid on the 2025 pen staff. The Mets will be paying him $4.5mil for one season.

Complete 2024:  -0.6-WAR, 7-3, 4.88

Mets 2024:           -0.2-WAR, 1-0, 6.06

2024 Playoffs:     3.38-ERA, 7-apps,

Final 12 2024 apps:  2.92-ERA 

        Thomas Nestico      @TJStats

        Ryne Stanek (signed by NYM) is a stuff monster with an electric fastball and    wicked splitter. He is extremely productive at generating whiffs in the zone but his effectiveness is hampered by his command issues 

Stanek, Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Dedniel Nunez, and Jose Butto are keepers in my 2025 pen. That’s five. Need eight.

Reed Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley, Huascar Brazoban, Tyler Zuber and Max Kranick will compete this spring for the two opening day slots in the pen.

Is this now a great pen? I wouldn’t say that. What it will say it is now one of the top 15 pens in the game. Great accomplishment by David Stearns after starting off this off-season so naked out there.

 

1-28-25 –

Keith Law’s Three Top Mets Prospects –

            RHP Brandon Sproat

            “He works heavily off a four-seamer that’s been up to 99-100 and sits 96-97, while his best pitch is a slider that’s above-average to plus depending on the day; he’ll throw a decent change, a curve and a two-seamer as well,” Law wrote. “It’ll always be control over command, as he’s so aggressive that it’s hard to foresee him ever toning it down enough to be precise with his locations.

“He’ll have to do a little bit of refinement to make the last leap to the majors, as hitters will hit your stuff, no matter how good it is, if you put it on a tee for them. He has some similarities to Edwin Jackson, a huge stuff guy who was more of a No. 4 starter for most of his career, although I think Sproat has better control than Jackson did at the same age.”

 

            IF/OF Jett Williams

            “It’s a compact swing combined with very good ball/strike awareness, and he could be a high-average/high-OBP second baseman with 55-60 defense, which would make him a solid or better regular,” Law wrote. “His 2024 season was just a lost year, and while he can’t get those at-bats back, it’s also possible that we’ll have to just disregard what he did do when he played because he wasn’t 100 percent.”

 

            IF Ronny Mauricio

            “He’s just way too aggressive at the plate, chasing off-speed stuff out of the zone at a rate that’s not going to be sustainable for a major-league regular – which is why the loss of a year-plus of plate appearances was so damaging for him, as he needs to work on ball/strike and pitch recognition, and the best way to do that is by playing,” Law wrote.

“I’ve said before he reminds me a ton of Alfonso Soriano, who had similarly electric wrists, never figured out shortstop, and wasn’t anything close to ‘patient’ at the plate, but improved his approach enough to hit 412 homers and play 16 years in the majors. That’s a best-case scenario for Mauricio, and probably more unlikely after the injury.”

 

1-29-25 –

Just Baseball - Top 10 Third Basemen in Major League Baseball for 2025

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/top-10-third-basemen-in-major-league-baseball-for-2025/

9. Mark Vientos, New York Mets

2024 Stats: 111 G, .266/.322/.516, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 133 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Staying on the topic of projectable young talent, Mark Vientos may just he the third baseman the Mets have been looking for for years now.

After a 68 wRC+ season in 233 plate appearances in 2023, followed by a start to the 2024 season in Triple-A Syracuse, Vientos defied all expectations when he got the call in 2024 and became one of New York’s best offensive pieces.

Of all Mets hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, Vientos’ 2.9 fWAR, 133 wRC+ and .837 OPS were second to only NL MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor, while his 27 HR were the third best tally, trailing Lindor and Pete Alonso.

Among MLB third baseman (under the same 400 PA parameter), he ranked third in wRC+ and OPS and showed off the power abilities with a second ranked SLG.

He’ll look to complete his first full season in 2025 and build of a stellar 2024 regular season and an unbelievably clutch postseason, where he belted five homers in 13 games and posted a 178 wRC+.

And you want to make this guy a first baseman now?

 

1-29-25 –

Daniel Wexler          @WexlerRules

Baseball America names Jonathan Santucci as Mets sleeper prospect for 2025. 

A sleeper prospect is one that didn’t make an organization’s top 10 and was not one of their “breakout” prospect picks for a team

 

4 Mets make ESPN’s top 100 prospects

#34 Jett Williams

#62 Brandon Sproat

#67 Ronny Mauricio

#84 Drew Gilbert

 

1-28-25 –

Will Francisco Alvarez Become the Slugger the Mets Dreamed Of?

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/francisco-alvarez-breakout-become-great-hitter-mets-imagined-2025/

According to FanGraphs WAR, New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez has been a top-10 backstop in the sport over the past two seasons. He has produced 4.9 fWAR in 223 games. Yet, he has barely scratched the surface of his monstrous potential.

Alvarez has provided the majority of his value behind the plate. Specifically, he has demonstrated an aptitude for stealing strikes. The metrics at FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Prospectus all agree he’s been one of the more valuable pitch framers in the league.

Framing is one of the most valuable (and most overlooked) skills in the modern game. Just look at Giants catcher Patrick Bailey.

Just Baseball recently ranked Bailey number five on our list of the top 10 catchers in baseball despite his career .640 OPS and 79 wRC+. Why? Because he’s miles ahead of every other backstop when it comes to earning extra strikes.

Alvarez isn’t quite on Bailey’s level, but thanks to his excellent framing, FanGraphs ranks him as the 12th most valuable defensive player at any position over the past two years. That’s remarkable progress for a young player who wasn’t often considered a plus defender during his prospect days.

Boy… everybody seems to be getting on the Alvy train.

 

1-25-25 –

Ben Weaver     @weaver_cards

Jonah Tong, 21 y/o, NYM, RHP, #17 in system

Split time between A, A+, AA

K% - 34.2%

BB% - 10%

GB% - 45.2%

IP - 113

++ FB and CB

Seems Jonah continues to impress this spring in camp. I’m tellin’ ya… watch for this kid to move fast through the chain this season

 

Jim Koenigsberger          @Jimfrombaseball

 “Barry Bonds? I’ll tell you what, if Bonds hit a home run off Bob Gibson or Don Drysdale and stood and admired it, they’d knock that earring out of his ear the next time up.”

National League Umpire Doug Harvey

 

Billy Wagner was just voted to the Hall. He pitched in 903 innings in his career,  over 16 big league seasons.

      And Billy Wagner was a right hander until he injured his arm, severely. So, he taught himself to pitch left handed and became a Hall of Famer.