MACK - MY Thursday Observations

 

Thomas Nestico                 @TJStats

Tylor Megill has a chance to start the season in the Mets rotation and today he showed off why he deserves it!

Megill has been a favourite of mine for quite some time thanks to his incredibly deep array of pitches.  His arsenal is filled to brim with exciting stuff!

The criticism of Megill as a starter is he drops a huge percentage of velo after four innings. This is what has held him back as a Mets starter. I’m rooting hard for him this spring 

Pitch Profiler           @pitchprofiler

The Mets pitching factory strikes again lol

Ryne Stanek’s stuff looked sharp this afternoon, racking up a 40% whiff rate!

Looks like he’s also added a baby sweeper!

A great first outing for Stanek.

Pitch Profiler                      @pitchprofiler

With all the buzz around the Mets developing insane stuff monsters, I almost forgot about Reed Garrett—who’s a stuff monster himself!

Isaac              @isaacgroffman

Tyler Zuber’s sweeper was the nastiest it’s ever been tonight

Nearly 2 FEET of sweep and 7.2 inches of lift, reminiscent of his indoor shapes this winter

He also flashed an incredibly flat VAA 4-seamer, though VAA is not stable

        Pitch Profiler      @pitchprofiler

       180 proStuff+ oh my god

So… who is Tyler Zuber?

Zuber is a 29/year old RHRP, standing 5-11/190.

Drafted in the 6^th round 0f the 2017 draft, by Kansas City, out of Arkansas State University

Came to the Mets in 2024 from Tampa Bay, in a trade for P Paul Gervase. (not a favorite trade with Ernest and Tom)

2024 – Tampa Bay:    0.1-WAR  2-G   0-0   2.70   3.1-IP   4-K 

Sat out 2022 with a right shoulder impingement

Fastball – low 90s, T-94   Upper 70s curve   low 80s change

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03 

4. Nolan McLean – RHP – (Double-A)

Height/Weight: 6’2″, 215 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 3rd Round (91), 2024 (NYM) | ETA: 2026

Outlook

After a strong first full season of pitching as a starter, McLean is a candidate to make a big leap in 2025 given his feel to spin it and athleticism on the mound.

For context, he threw twice as many innings in 2024 as he did in his entire collegiate career. The part-time hitting he was doing in his first pro season and a half is no longer as well, only adding to the intrigue of what McLean can progress to with his focus now being more isolated.

With his pitch mix and ability to get contact on the ground, McLean has a good chance to stick as a back-end starter, with the upside to be a strong No. 4 option in a good rotation.

 

5. Luisangel Acuña – SS – (MLB)

Height/Weight: 5’10″, 180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | IFA: $425K – 2018 (TEX) | ETA: 2024

Outlook

Acuña still has some developing to do at the plate, but his athleticism, advanced glove and at least decent offensive tools give him a great chance of at least filling a big league role as a utility piece. Still just 23 years old for the entirety of the 2025 season, Acuña has a chance to develop enough as a hitter to be an everyday middle-infielder.

 

6. Jesus Baez – 3B – (High-A)

Height/Weight: 5’10″, 180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | IFA: $275K – 2022 (NYM) | ETA: 2028

Outlook

Baez’s breakout season was cut to just 72 games due to season-ending knee surgery after a hot eight game start with High-A Brooklyn. Baez has the skill set to become an above average third baseman, and assuming he is able to rebound from his knee injury, he could hit his way to Double-A in his age 20 season. He could benefit from being more selective in the box along with some small mechanical tweaks that could have him providing average hit and above average pop.

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0

3) RHP Jonah Tong

The fastball shape is still his defining trait. He’s getting 20 vert with some cut, a shape that you would usually expect from someone with an absurdly high release, but he’s able to achieve this from a 5.7 release height and solid extension. It’s an outlier, outlier combination that comes from a unique delivery where he gets into a pronounced trunk tilt that creates a massive lean at ball release, leading to a very vertical arm slot. However, despite this arm slot, his smaller frame and ability to hold hip internal rotation down the mound create a low center of gravity, which keeps the release height lower than an average pitcher’s. The vert and release combo leads to some VAA traits for whiffs, and there is even some contact suppression from the cut on the pitch. Even at 93, it’s a fantastic pitch. 

His secondaries all grade out around average to me, although I have a bit lower of a confidence level on a couple of them than I usually would. The one I feel pretty comfortable about being an average pitch is the bridge breaker I’d call a slider, thrown in the mid-80s with around 2/6 shape. It should be perfectly fine, if unspectacular. The more interesting breakers are the curveball and changeup, as both run very high whiff rates despite not having a ton of traits that traditional pitch shape scouting would value. The curve is only thrown in the mid-70s, although it does have the outlier quality of depth — close to -20 vert with minimal sweep. This could lead to it playing as a whiff pitch against big leaguers despite not reaching the 80 mph threshold, but there is a world where it turns into an early-count strike stealer. The changeup is in a similar spot as a pitch that got a ton of whiffs despite being a fairly generic straight change with around 15 vert and minimal run in the mid-80s. I’m guessing this is at least partially usage related, so it would be interesting to see if the whiffs can stay if he increases usage of the pitch. If they don’t, a splitter makes a lot of sense from a slot standpoint, but I don’t think there’s a huge need for one yet and they are notoriously difficult to command. 

Even with a likely four pitch mix and improved-but-not-amazing walk rates, the whole profile still feels kind of relieverish — the mechanics are not just weird but can create a late arm, and also imagine that fastball if he can just rip it in the mid-90s — but as of now he looks like he could be a mid-rotation starter, albeit with a lower confidence level on either side of the bell curve. It’s a super weird profile, and weird is good. It’ll play.

Scouting grades: 65 FF, 50 SL, 50 CU, 50 CH, 45 command

Optimistic comp: Can I say the fastball is Alex Vesia-esque?

24) Daiverson Gutierrez

Every prospect list needs a Venezuelan catcher, and Guiterrez is the most notable in the Mets system. He started the season as a repeat in the DSL but quickly earned a promotion stateside and eventually got a cup of coffee in the FSL by the end of the season. Ultraphysical in the box and swinging with intent of damage, he opened his stance significantly to get into a better launch position, and the results followed as he went up the low-minors ladder. It’s still a lot of moving parts that might not work at higher levels, but he made a ton of contact and hit the ball very hard for his age, with a near-MLB average EV90 across the 2024 season. He’s pretty filled out already, so it’s hard to project too much of a power ceiling, but the exit velos could be above average in time. He can expand the zone too much — the chase rate ballooned to around 40% in his limited time in the FSL — but there are the building blocks for an impact bat here. Projecting catcher defense at this stage is harder than winning the lottery, but the arm seems at least above average. There are a lot of bad left-tail outcomes, but Gutierrez is a fun breakout pick who could be one of the top organizational prospects this time next year if the bat keeps playing.

Thomas Nestico         @TJStats

Personal prospect crush team

SP Richard Fitts

SP Grant Taylor

SP George Klassen

SP Emiliano Teodo

SP Chen-Wei Lin

C Dillon Dingler

1B Nick Kurtz

2B Kevin McGonigle

3B Jesus Baez

SS Jacob Wilson

OF Emmanuel Rodriguez

OF Luke Keaschall

OF Alan Roden

RP Craig Yoho

RP Zach Maxwell

 

Top 10 Best Players in the NL East for the 2025 MLB Season -

Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso (NYM)

Pete Alonso is the biggest-name player who missed the cut in our top 10, coming off two relatively down seasons ahead of his free agency this winter. Alonso’s diminishing value as a star player was evident in the market, as he struggled to command interest in a long-term deal.

Instead, Alonso returned to the Mets on a two-year deal with an opt-out, which will pay him $30 million for the 2025 season. This makes Alonso the highest paid first baseman in the game this year.

A four-time All-Star, Alonso’s is a bigger name than some of the players who ranked ahead of him on this list, but that is because this is a list of the top 10 best players in the NL East, not the top 10 biggest stars (a list Alonso would have made).

With that said, while the WAR numbers might not be there for Alonso, a season batting behind Lindor and Soto should provide him with ample RBI opportunities, as he is sure to once again be featured prominently among league leaders in RBIs, and home runs, and could very well lead the NL East in both departments.

Alonso’s longtime teammate Brandon Nimmo is another honorable mention who nearly made this list, as he has consistently been one of the best outfielders in the NL East.

Nimmo is coming off a down-year in terms of his wRC+ (109) and fWAR (2.7) totals, but he did reach new career-highs with 90 runs batted in, and 15 stolen bases. If Nimmo can continue to produce in those departments, while returning to being the 130 wRC+ hitter he has largely been throughout his career, there is every chance Nimmo has another 4-5 win season in him in 2025.

 

Daniel Wexler        @WexlerRules

Mildly surprising. Mets have released LHP Brayhans Barreto. Barreto posted a 3.74 FIP, 10.63 k/9 in 2024 with St. Lucie.

 

Jim Koenigsberger      @Jimfrombaseball

"I’m lucky. Usually you’re dead to get your own museum, but I’m still alive to see mine"

Yogi Berra

 

Tom Seaver`s media nickname referred to the cartoon character "Tom Terrific". In 2019, NFL quarterback Tom Brady was denied the trademark on the name "Tom Terrific", when the United States Patent & Trademark Office said it "may falsely suggest a connection with Tom Seaver"

In the introduction to his book, "The Great Big Book of Tomorrow, Tom Tomorrow" author Dan Perkins says that he chose his pseudonym through misremembering the name of Tom Terrific.