Paul Articulates – How will this turn out?

Brett Baty has had a fantastic spring.  He is hitting the ball often and hitting it hard.  So far this spring, he has slashed .444/.500/.833 which equates to a 1.333 OPS.  His performance has sparked a great deal of discussion, as witnessed by the 25 comments registered on Tom’s post yesterday entitled, “Baty Hitting Better for One Big Reason”.

Most of the comments were the positive, “I knew he would do it” variety unlike those heard last year that called for him to be cut, traded, or relegated to riding a minor league bus for the rest of his life.  So how do 18 at-bats change the entire trajectory of a ball-player’s career?  Let’s remember that this guy has had 544 MLB at-bats, 1216 minor league at-bats, and countless more in his scholastic and travel ball seasons.

The reason, of course, is that we have all had a great deal of hope for this kid to become a star so when he wasn’t hitting MLB pitching the disappointment leaked into our assessment of his future.  But when his bat started singing, all that pent-up hope came rushing out from those fans who now believe he has finally arrived.

I’ll go out on a very short limb here and ensure everyone that Baty will not hit .444 for the 2025 MLB season.  He won’t slug a homer every ninth at-bat and he won’t be on base for a full 50% of his trips to the plate.  Things tend to level out a bit over time, and if we are lucky, Brett levels out at numbers that will keep him productively employed with the big league club.

The euphoria over his presumed “coming of age” brings to mind many other Mets players that got off to a hot start.  Some of them finished well, others had their mission aborted mid-flight.  Let’s go back and remember the greatest regular season starts from Mets players.  Sorry in advance if some of these trigger night terrors among the more sensitive readers.

Mike Vail – Mike Vail had a huge season going in 1975 for the AAA Tidewater Ties and was rewarded in August with a call-up to the MLB club.  There he started out on FIRE, setting a MLB rookie record by hitting in 23 consecutive games.  Vail hit .302 in 38 games for the Mets that year, and looked like a sure thing.  Unfortunately an off-the-field foot injury before the 1976 season set him back and he never recovered the swagger.  Eventually he was waived and bounced around between seven other teams before his career ended.

Gregg Jeffries – Like Vail, Jeffries tore it up in the minors.  He won minor league player for the year in consecutive seasons in 1986 and 1987.  By August of 1988 it was time to call him up to the majors.  Jeffries responded by hitting .321 over the last 29 games of that season, helping propel the Mets to a playoff berth that year.  Jeffries had a ton of potential, but never repeated that 1988 performance, and eventually showed that he could not get along with his teammates, leading to his exit from the club after the 1991 season.

Dominic Smith – we all remember Dom as a prospect that excited scouts and fans alike.  He was a first round draft pick by the Mets, #11 overall out of Junipero Serra high school in California.  He showed some hitting prowess (.293 avg) in the minors and some power (.428 slug), but the transition to MLB was a little rough.  From 2017 to 2019 he yo-yo’ed between the Mets and the minors, but in the pandemic season of 2020 he looked like a star.  Over the 50 game season he batted .316 with 10 homers and 42 RBI.  He dipped somewhat in 2021 to a .244 average but then came the spring of 2022 when he lit up the Florida diamonds with a .423/.531/.846 slash line.  Yes that 1.377 OPS looks eerily similar to Baty’s right now.  Smith of course would never really find that consistency and was eventually left to find a team through free agency.  He bounced between six other clubs and is now in the Yankees’ farm system.

Brandon Nimmo – In 2023 which was his walk year, Nimmo started out hot, slashing .341/.443/.466 in April.  Although he did not sustain that incredible pace throughout the season, he finished at .274/.363/.466 which led to his 8 year, $162M extension that he continues to earn.  Some of these stories finish with a happy ending.

Jeff McNeil – 2019 was McNeil’s first full year with the MLB club.  He was determined to stay there, and started the season by slashing .363/.453/.473 in April.  He went on to make the all-star team that year and finished the season fourth in the NL in batting with a .318 average.

There are so many other stories about players who started hot and finished with a variety of conclusions.  In the end, a player is measured by the full body of work that season, so there are many ball games between now and when we can declare whether Brett Baty has arrived or not.  Will he find that special mental place that will allow him to excel this season, or will he lose confidence in the first slump?  We won't know until September, but is sure is fun to think about what it could be.