Reese Kaplan -- A Closer Look at Who Replaces Injured Pitchers

Yesterday we took a crack at predicting the opening day roster given the in-camp battles, the health of various players and the concern to keep the payroll from escalating any further than it already has.  Today let’s take a closer look at the starting pitching and how things both fair and unfair lead to decisions being made.

Everyone is fully aware of Sean Manaea’s alleged less severe right oblique strain which everyone has written in ink will require his season to begin on the 15-day IL.  Right now rest and corresponding treatments are being done to attempt to minimize the length of his absence from leading the Mets pitching rotation.

Now the situation with fellow starter Frankie Montas is quite a bit worse.  His evaluation of a high grade lat strain is met initially with an order to shutdown for up to eight weeks.  The next phase afterwards would be the equivalent of having gone through a normal spring training ramp up to the season.  Estimates vary but the most optimistic numbers which assume no setbacks nor recurrences have late May to mid-June as a timetable. 

Everyone is aware there are four capable starters who can vie to fill in for these two starting pitchers.  In alphabetical order you have Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, Max Kranick and Tylor Megill.  None immediately jump out as being the equivalent of what they’re asked to replace but at the same time you’re looking at in Manaea’s case perhaps May 1st as a start date but then another 6 weeks or so later for Montas.  In terms of starting pitching, 4 weeks is 5-6 stars and 10 weeks is 11-12 revolutions of the pitching rotation. 

Paul Blackburn was a mid season scratch your head acquisition in 2024 after having played regularly for the Athletics.  His baseball card numbers don’t fill you with a lot of confidence.  Since debuting back in 2017 he’s functioned primarily as a starting pitcher.  

Since then he’s accumulated a track record of 22-28 with a 4.85 ERA, a terrible WHIP of 1.409 and a less than 2.5:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks.  His best season was arguably as a rookie when he was 3-1 over 10 starts with a 3.22 ERA and a respectable WHIP.  It’s all been downhill since then. 

Now some GMs are so obsessed with their ego and reputation that they will often extend a poorly performing player a longer-than-wise interval of appearing regularly.  Last season some feared that outcome would happen with David Stearns’ former Brewers hurler Adrian Houser, but after seven mediocre starts he was cut loose.  Some wonder if the same can be said about the less productive Blackburn whose only real attribute right now is apparently full health.

Griffin Canning is another pitcher that got people wondering what was the appeal?  If you look over his numbers, Canning debuted in 2019 for the Angels and spent his entire career there until the Mets acquired him during the offseason.  

His career is summed up by a 25-34 record with 4.78 ERA.  His WHIP is slightly better than Blackburn’s number as is his modest strikeout to walk number.  He makes little money in today’s economy so you wonder how long his leash will be.

Max Kranick has pitched for the Pirates before spending all of 2024 in the minors.  His modest two partial years in Pittsburgh were ugly and his major league record is best not even cited.  However, in a combination of St. Lucie, Binghamton and Syracuse he appeared in 45 games as both a starter and reliever, finishing with aggregate totals of 2-2 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.288 WHIP and a 2.67 Strikeout-to-Walk ratio.  

In spring training this year he’s been even better than that and at 27 years of age he may just be a bit of a late bloomer.  For now the minor league numbers are far better than what the previous duo did in the majors.

Then there’s many fans and writers’ whipping boy, Tylor Megill.  He has had parts of the last few seasons with the Mets.  He occasionally looked like a solid pitcher and future key player.  Then there are other times he was simply a batting practice pitcher for opponents.  He did finish 2024 strongly and thus far has shown higher velocity than the others. 

If you’re a businessman, you want to see return on your investments.  Tylor Megill was made a part of the Mets organization long before David Stearns was a part of it, but he’s also stood on the mound for manager Carlos Mendoza so there is familiarity there.  He is also working on his last option, so it’s now-or-never time for him.  I’m assuming he is one of the two starting pitchers chosen. 

Based upon their career histories and Port St. Lucie spring performances you would think both Blackburn and Canning are the bottom two of this quartet of possible starting pitching replacements.  However, major league experience (even at a mediocre level) often trumps common sense. 

Max Kranick is the mystery man.  He has pitched both as a starter and reliever in his career.  If he is given the second starting slot alongside Tylor Megill, then he could shift to the pen when Sean Manaea is deemed ready to play.  Neither Blackburn nor Canning offer that flexibility.  

It would seem that hoping the younger two with some experience and higher potential are superior choices to the older two whose experience has not been good at all.  Then again, I didn’t acquire either of the would-be also-rans so I have no ego in this race to color my decision.