Tom Brennan - Perhaps a Sign of Softness in Certain Mets Players? Guzman a Goodie; And…My Trade Conclusions

No One Tougher Than Ex-Met Kevin Pillar

Who Came Right Back From This Broken Bone Mash-Up

You already know how the Mets and their new teammates did Friday night, a 4-3 10 inning loss with continued hitting anemia, so let me skip over that and address some other points of interest:

BENGE BINGE: 

24 games in AA. His adjustment period lasted 3 games (2 for 9).

Last 21 of those 24 games, the lefty-hitting Carson Benge is crushing it at .405, while Tyrone Taylor has given up hitting for Lent.

Taylor incomprehensibly has dropped to .199, with just 7 for 73 with 3 walks and 3 RBIs in his last 30 games. SORRY. HE AIN’T NO CROW, MACK.

ENOUGH!  

Cut Taylor, call up Gilbert!  

Oh, yeah, he’s gone, so summon Mantle Benge. Now.

(Lest you were tempted to call up Gilbert, just keep in mind that his last 4 Mets’ AAA games, he was an ugly 2 for 15 with 7 Ks).

The AAA alternatives to CF Taylor are two righty AAA dudes: 

Pablo Reyes (.324, but primarily an IF) and Jose Azocar (.271, no power).  

Nick Morabito due to injury has had just 6 ABs in the last 3 weeks in AA, or he might have been a wrinkle-free alternative to Dry-Clean Taylor.

OF Kevin Kaczmarski retired from baseball in 2019. 4 hitless Mets at bats.  But a .300 hitter in AAA. Could have used him now. Get him on his cell.

Elian Peña just told me: CF is easy, and I’m ready if they need me.

HBP HEAVEN, OR HBP SOFTNESS - THE CHOICE IS THEIRS

Three current veteran Mets star hitters are certainly not softies, specifically when it comes to one often overlooked way to get on base. 

In this, they are TOUGH GUYS:

I.e., getting hit by pitches. 

Through Friday, July 24:

Starling Marte, career? 165 HBP in 6,170 PAs. Once every 37 times up.

Brandon Nimmo, career? 86 HBP in 4,122 PAs. Once every 48 times up.

Pete Alonso, career?  97 HBP in 4,052 PAs. Once every 42 times up.

That’s a lot of OBP-increasing HBPs.

But…

Brett Baty, career? Just 5 HBP in 865 PAs. Once every 173 times up.

Mark Vientos, career? 8 HBP in 1,004 PAs. Once every 138 times up.

So…

3 successful star vets are “hit by orb” once every 42 times up…a .024 OBP.

But the 2 struggling younger hitters, who are trying to reach stardom, and combined have been up nearly 2,000 times in their career, a very substantial amount of PAs? 

Hit by that round thing with stitching just once every 144 times up…a .007 OBP.  

My conclusion?  The two (perhaps) are:

Soft.  

Too Soft.

That .017 higher OBP (.024 Vets vs .ptheir .007)?  

Simply does this: 

If a guy added .017 to a .300 OBP, it would be a much better .317 OBP. 

That makes a real difference.  

Baty (.286) and Vientos (.292) frankly had lousy career OBPs as I wrote this.

Getting hit by a lot more pitches might hurt physically …

But it would help them get on base more.

BUT WAIT….THERE’S MORE…

Let’s add in Alvarez (just 10 HBP in 943 PAs) and Mauricio (1 in 223 PAs).

So now…those latter 4 non-star wannabes?  

Not getting on base all that much due to HBP: just 24 in roughly 3,000 PAs.

By further comparison…

Remember ex-Met Mark Canha? 

He knew his offensive talent was fair-to-middling, so he deliberately got hit by pitches a real lot, to boost his OBP a real lot.

Canha has 141 HBP in 4,128 PAs, or once every 29 times up. 

That’s a .035 Canha career OBP just on HBP!!

28 OBP points higher than the HBP OBP average of Baty and Vientos.

27 OBP points higher than the Alvarez, Mo, Mark, and Brett foursome.

Again, go ahead…

- Add 28 points to Baty’s OBP and he goes from .286 to .314 OBP.

- Add 28 points to Vientos’ OBP and he goes from .292 to .320 OBP.

.314 and .320 are decent MLB OBPs.  

In fact, a .320 team OBP would rank 14th out of 30 teams, while neither Baty’s nor Vientos’ actual career OBPs of .286 and .292 are even as high as the OBP of the worst ranked MLB team in OBP (.294).

SIMPLY…ASI SEES IT….

NO PAIN = NO GAIN, FELLAS.

SOFTNESS IS NOT EQUAL TO DESPERATION TO EXCEL

AND DESPERATE SERIOUSNESS (PLUS TALENT) IN BASEBALL?

IT SEPARATES THE SUCCESSFUL STARS FROM THE ALSO-RANS.

HBPs helped make Ron Hunt’s fine career to be successful.

He was hit 243 times in 6,158 career PAs. 

So Hunt had a .040 OBP just on HBPs!

Which “OBP boost” really helped him get to 6,158 career PAs. 

If he got hit (let’s say) 30 times, instead of 243 times?

Would his career have lasted as long? I’d bet not. And THAT would have hurt more.

BRENNAN TRADE DEADLINE CONCLUSIONS

I could get all kinds of detailed here, but I won’t. 

Macro view:

Helsley, Cedric, Rogers and Soto II are 4 Mets late July acquisitions that….

1) drastically improve the pen, and 

2) significantly improve the void in CF this year.

Prospects the Mets have given up?  Several, but…

Sorry, Ernest, none that I believe I will really miss. Not even Gilbert. Now, though, trading that righty minors pitcher might ultimately prove to be a Dohm move.

None traded away that would have helped the NY Mets in any real way this year. 

And…

ALL of my favorite Mets prospects were NOT traded! Thus….

All good to me.

In fact, all great. 

Collectively, a big and much-needed Mets team upgrade.

Now…enough of that….trading frenzy is over, so let’s win us a 2025 World Series.

OMAR’S RESURRECTION

Speedster Omar De Los Santos is one guy I had totally thrown in the towel on.

Prior to 2025, a very minors low average (.200 in 2023 and 2024) and very high Ks.

Bad, K-filled 2025 spring training, then played sparsely early in 2025 in the minors and was 5 for 41 with a jaw-dropping 23 Ks through late May.

Three times this year, Omar was placed on the minor league Development List. 

THREE TIMES.

Considering his pro career began in 2019, was there any hope whatsoever?

The answer, as it turns out, is, “perhaps”.

He went 6 for 19 from his last game in May through June 30, with just 5 Ks.

Decent.

Then July, through July 30?

9 for 17, 3 HRs, 7 RBIs, with 5 Ks in AAA. Wow.

REMARKABLE IMPROVEMENT, albeit over a very small June/July at bat sample. 

The 25 year old in 2022-24 stole 152 bases in 307 games, despite having real trouble getting on base.

Could his hitting this season have in fact undergone real “development”?  

We will soon find out. One game at a time.

Some guys figure it out. Most recently and notably, Jeremiah Jackson, who fanned well over once per game for a few years. This year, in another organization’s AAA, in the International League, he is hitting a lusty .377 with just 20 Ks in 40 games.

RANDY GUZMAN ROCKS

Promoted to St Lucie from the FCL at season’s end, the Randy Man popped a HR in his first game for Lucie, went 0-8 in the next two, then exploded for SIX FOR TEN in his next 2 games.  

So, he was 7 for 21 with 3 walks and 6 RBIs with his new higher level team - and…

NO STRIKEOUTS.   WHAT??

The lack of Ks puts him squarely on my radar screen. 

That, and 8 HRs and 39 RBIs in 177 at bats this year at the two levels.

In fact, I always look for minimized strikeouts in prospect hitters. Guzman, a 20 year old 6’4”, 215 OF, in July (between FCL and Lucie) hit .343/.432/.557, with just SIX Ks. 

Add Guzman to the Radar Tracking System. He’s a large object and easy to track.

And, like McCovey and Aaron, he wears # 44 on his back. Just sayin’.

GETTING THEIR MONEY’S WORTH

Since his 0 for 28 season start….Elian Peña is 36 for 107 with 25 walks.  Also 17 of 19 steals.  Playing like a $5 million guy, ya think? I know he is a SS in the lowly DSL, but could he play CF in Queens right now? Why not? He’d only have to hit 7 for 73 to match Tyrone. EVEN I COULD DO THAT, AND I’M 71.

Happy Saturday.