ANGRY MIKE
Brandon Sproat in my opinion has been the “Ronny Mauricio” of pitching prospects within the Mets system. Sproat has as much natural ability as anyone in the system, has had stretches where he’s looked like one of the most dominant pitching prospects in baseball. He’s also had stretches where the numbers did reflect his elite upside, and as a result the Mets fanbase and the media turned on him as if he was a bonafide “war criminal”, with total disregard of the fact Sproat might’ve been working on improving certain aspects of his game, as young pitchers are often asked to do at AAA.
Sproat rose to prominence among the “Top 100 Ranks” when he had a spectacular beginning to his professional career, dominating at Brooklyn and Binghamton. Unfortunately, he battled inconsistency after his promotion to Syracuse, erasing any chances of Sproat contributing at the MLB level in any capacity.
It was a crucial first impression, when you take into account, Sproat was the 1st player in MLB history to have been drafted twice by the same franchise in consecutive drafts. 2022, Sproat was one of only 2 players drafted in the first 10 rounds, to forgo signing and return to school. The other player? Nolan McLean. While McLean’s camp felt the Orioles were low-balling them based on an inaccurate diagnosis of customary MRI exam, Sproat returned to school hoping to perform well enough to further improve his draft stock. Ultimately, the Mets received permission from Sproat to draft him again in the second round, he signed for the recommended slot and the rest is history.
Oh yeah, Mets also drafted that Nolan McLean guy as well, in the third round, and he worked out pretty well too.
Once again, THANK YOU ORIOLES MEDICAL STAFF 🙏🫡
Sproat’s 2025 season began similarly to how his 2024 season ended, inconsistent results, sinker being used more frequently than his 4-seamer, and his sweeper being used more often than his plus changeup. The Mets gave him clear instructions during Spring Training, “work on attacking hitters in the zone -> induced weak contact”. Makes perfect sense, even Paul Skenes doesn’t excel in the Majors, by averaging 12 strikeouts a game, which leads me to believe some of the inconsistent performances can be attributed to tinkering with pitches and approach.
Then Francisco Alvarez demoted, and as William Dafoe best described, “the worm definitely turned for you man…”
There’s a reason why Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander enjoyed having Alvarez as their catcher, he has an uncanny ability to bring out the best in his pitchers. Although, Alvarez was sent down to work on his swing and tighten up his defense, he also helped Sproat and McLean perform remarkably better after logging multiple starts with them. Sproat had begun to turn his season around prior to Alvarez’ arrival, twirling 5 solid outings, to only 3 rough outings, and a weird appearance out of the bullpen.
2025 SEASON HIGHLIGHTS:
After Alvarez’ arrival:
4 Outings <-> 23 IP | 0 ER | 27 K’s | 8 Hits | 6 BB |
Batting Average Against -> July: 27 IP | .152 BAA | -> August: 26 IP | .184 BAA |
9 of next 11 starts -> 6 ER total -> he did have 2 rough outings giving up 10 ER
4-seam Fastball velocity -> 96 MPH & Top-end velocity was back to 99-100 MPH
7 Quality Starts in Minors + 2 in Majors
3 IP -> accounted for 10 ER of 11 ER he surrendered
17.1 -> 1 ER
First 61 IP -> || 43 K || 63 Hits || 32 BB ||
Final 79.1 IP -> || 87 K || 52 Hits || 28 BB ||
11 outings of 5+ Strikeouts
12 outings of 3 or fewer Hits
8 scoreless outings
9 outings of 2 ER or less
9 outings accounted for 44 ER
20 outings <-> 1.73 ERA <-> 21 ER <-> 109 IP
2026 OUTLOOK
For whatever reason Sproat’s tremendous potential is unnecessarily marginalized by various circles, after historic McLean’s, if any player doesn’t duplicate the same numbers, he should be traded. Fact remains Sproat has the best velocity in the system, and it’s effortless plus-plus velocity. That same velocity has enabled him to develop a plus sinker, which can also become a lethal pitch with more experience. He still has his plus changeup, and his sweeper looked a lot more effective last year, and should also continue to improve.
Sproat’s arsenal gives the Mets a lot to work with, and if they exercise some patience, he has the mental makeup and natural ability to develop into a frontline starter. Any rookie SP, who can deliver the type of performance we saw against Hunter Greene during his MLB debut, is the type of player I’d provide further opportunities to develop.
Mets have several question marks in their rotation, but the time is now for McLean and Sproat to begin their seasons in the rotation, and for the Mets to provide them both with a long runway to develop properly at the MLB level. Sproat offers as much upside as anyone else we have in the organization, only costs the Mets the league minimum, and if he continues to develop, he has the ability to provide the Mets with a chance to win every time he takes the mound.
The fact the Mets were able to add Tong, Sproat, and McLean all of whom were originally members of the 2022 Draft Class is truly a gift from the “Baseball Gods”. Having the patience to wait an extra year, and target Sproat and McLean in the 2023 Draft, will pay off huge dividends for years to come.
6 comments:
I hope that he comes into his own this season at the MLB level. We are fortunate to have three talented pitching prospects that are right on the edge of stardom.
Love the comparison to Mauricio - got a good chuckle there. Sproat should be in the rotation because he has a solid four pitch mix. Tong only has two pitches and can either progress in AAA or become a very good closer - which isn’t a bad outcome either!
Mike, you touched in the adjustments Sproat was trying to make early on in AAA - stuff people choose to forget - and I hope the new Mets pitching regime will account for. Peterson and Manaea are lefties, so they have an advantage going into the rotation, but Peterson will be a free agent a year from now so it wouldn’t be terrible if he moved on now. Let’s see what happens in spring training - just 81 days away according to my Statcast search today of: Ronny Mauricio, LOL! Hysterical!
Great read Mike!
Sproat, McLean, and Tong each will make us happier than Ronny Mauricio.
TeaxasGusCC - Nice point on Tong. Yes, he put up great numbers in the minors and had a couple of great starts for the Mets. But, how many two pitch pitchers truly succeed on the MLB level as starting pitchers. In my fantasy world, I have both Tong and Scott in my bullpen.
Building from within what a concept! I would use Peterson in a deal for either Skenes or Greene.
Excellent analysis Mike. I found your comments on Alvarez's potential impact on both McLean and Sproat intriguing. I am down on Alvarez as a hitter as he needs a complete rehaul of his mechanics, but it's instructive to see evidence of his impact on pitchers. II really like Sproat's arsenal and his make-up. I would like to see more movement on his 4 seamer, especially in to right handers, which would make all his other pitches that much more effective. I believe it would make his excellent changeup his best out-pitch and set up his breaking balls and splitter drivers of weak contact. I agree with TexasGus that Tong needs a third pitch, and strongly favor one that has horizontal movement as now he is only able to vary his pitches north and south and needs something moving on an east/west plane. I don't see him as a closer as he needs his fastball to set up change-up and the fast ball is also a bit too flat at this point to do that. Tong should spend time in Syracuse specifically developing such a pitch. I believe both McClean and Sproat should make the OD roster. Both have excellent mechanics and seem relatively unfazed by the moment, and though both are likely to go through rough patches, in what will be their first full years at the major league level, they have the make-up to persevere as well as the mix of pitches to succeed at the next level.
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