MACK - MY FRIDAY OBSERVATIONS - MACK'S PROSPECT #4 - RHSP Jack Wenninger - Willson Contreras, Mets Prospect Hitters, THE Trade, Jett, Joe Ryan, Devin Williams, 2026 , Pete, Edwin

 

4.     RHSP    Jack Wenninger

6-4      210      turns 24 in March    6^th rd. 2023, Illinois-Champaign

2025 – 26-ST, 12-6, 2.92, 1.15, 135.2-IP, 147-K, 42-BB

Jack Wenninger (full name: Jonathan Andrew Wenninger) is a promising right-handed starting pitcher in the New York Mets' minor league system. He signed for a $225,000 bonus and has quickly risen through the ranks.

Viewed as a potential mid-rotation starter with an estimated MLB debut in 2026.

Wenninger's path to pro ball was marked by steady improvement. He began at D-III Judson University before transferring to Murray State (D-I) for his freshman year in 2021, where he posted a 5.26 ERA over 51.1 innings with 42 strikeouts and 27 walks.

He then moved to the University of Illinois for his sophomore and junior seasons, anchoring their weekend rotation. In 2023, his draft year, he went 6-4 with a 4.59 ERA across 80.1 innings, striking out 76 while walking 28—showing command but room for swing-and-miss upside.

Scouts praised his athleticism, simple delivery (high-three-quarters arm slot with good extension), and physical projection, noting he added velocity and refined his secondaries during college.

Since signing with the Mets, Wenninger has progressed rapidly:

2023 (Short-Season): Limited action in the Florida Complex League and with High-A Brooklyn, focusing on adjustment.

2024 (Single-A St. Lucie / High-A Brooklyn): Appeared in 25 games (19 starts), logging 115 innings with a 4.30 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 140 strikeouts, and 40 walks. His surface stats were solid, but advanced metrics (3.97 FIP, 3.02 xFIP) suggested even more potential, especially after a strong second half at High-A.

2025 (Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies): Breakout year! He tied for the minor-league lead in wins (12-6).

His command has improved markedly (low walk rates), and he's become a workhorse, eating innings while missing bats.

Mets farm director Andrew Christie has called him an "awesome worker" and athlete.

Pitching Repertoire

Wenninger's arsenal is a four-pitch mix emphasizing deception and north-south movement, thrown from an over-the-top slot that adds perceived velocity. He relies heavily on fastball-changeup (~90% usage in college), but has developed his breaking balls for better sequencing. Key pitches:Pitch

Four-Seam Fastball - 90-94 mph (touches 96-97 mph). Heavy ride (18 inches vertical break, 13.5 inches horizontal arm-side run). Plays up due to extension and slot. Primary pitch (40-50% usage); command can be spotty but improved in 2025. Low-to-mid 90s velo fits starter profile.

Splitter/Changeup 82-85 mph. His standout offering—tunnels seamlessly with the fastball, fades arm-side with sharp drop. Supreme feel; generates whiffs vs. LHB/RHB. Bread-and-butter putaway pitch (30-40% usage); "disgusting" fade seen in playoff at-bats. Best secondary, projects plus.

Curveball  77-80 mph. 12-6 shape with depth; still developing control but effective for stealing strikes. ~10% usage; pairs well with splitter for vertical plane attacks.

Slider   82-85 mph. Gyro spin for lateral sweep; sharper than curve, used for back-door calls and righty chases. Emerging (~10% usage); added bite in 2025, shown in sequences like two back-door sliders before a changeup KO shot.

Overall, his stuff grades average-to-above (fastball/slider 50-55, changeup 60, curve 45 on 20-80 scale), but the tunneling and sequencing make it play up. In 2025, he evolved into a strike-thrower who can dominate both sides of the plate, with the splitter as his separator.

Keep an eye on spring training 2026

Just Baseball               @JustBB_Media

Willson Contreras is open to a trade and has become more willing to waive his full no-trade clause with the Cardinals

Contreras has two years and $36.5 million remaining on his contract, along with a $17.5 million club option in 2028.

MACK –

This could be an interesting two-year plan for first base, starting next season. Gawd knows the Mets have the prospects to pull this off.

  

Running From The OPS           @OPS_BASEBALL

The New York Mets System is Loaded With Great Young Hitters

 

TJStats

Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo

New York shipped long-time Met Brandon Nimmo to Texas for the versatile, yet aging, Marcus Semien. This trade came after a report stating that the Rangers were looking to cut payroll in 2026, and this move does just that. Nimmo is set to earn $20M/yr for the remainder of his contract while Semien is up to $24M/yr. The big caveat to these values is that Nimmo and Semin are under contract through 2030 and 2028, respectively. So in actuality, the Rangers are on the hook for a larger guarantee of $101M vs $72M.

Despite Nimmo’s productive 2025, I feel like this trade is a trap for the Rangers. Already declining plate discipline and defensive metrics does not bode well for the future of a deal with 5 years left. He does, however, improve the Rangers offense which was their downfall last season. His bat should remain productive for the next few seasons with the hope that he can stick in the outfield for majority of his time in Texas.

On the other end, Semien was a black hole in the Rangers lineup in 2025. His 89 wRC+ was the worst of his career and he failed to hit over 20 home runs for the first time since the abridged 2020 season. It is worth noting that his .317 xwOBA sat closer to his 2024 results and push him much closer to a league average bat. Even if his power does not rebound, Semien grades out as one of the best defenders at second base with enough speed and plate discipline to be an impactful player.

Overall, this trade solved an issue each team needed an answer to in 2025. The Mets gets a solid 2B and the Rangers add an effective bat to an anemic lineup. I like it more for New York as they escape Nimmo’s potential disastrous contract. It seems lateral on paper, yet it feels like the start of a hectic offseason for both teams

 

How does Jett Williams factor into Mets plans?

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The Mets and Rangers swapping of outfielder Brandon Nimmo and second baseman Marcus Semien may have been a one-for-one trade (with some cash going to Texas, too), but it set up a series of dominoes on both sides, particularly when it comes to prospects.

Top 30 overall prospect Jett Williams (NYM No. 3) may need to change lanes more permanently as a result of Semien’s addition to the Mets' roster.

The 14th overall pick in the 2022 Draft, Williams has been primarily a shortstop over his four seasons in the Mets' system, but with Francisco Lindor locked into the position for the foreseeable future, he has mixed in plenty of reps at second base and center field in recent years.

The reason is simple. Living up to his first name, Williams is an absolute burner on the basepaths. In only 34 games with Triple-A Syracuse last year, he registered 13 Bolts, which are measured as sprint speeds of 30 ft/sec or higher. Luisangel Acuña (24) was the only Mets Major Leaguer to register more, and you have to go back to Nimmo (30) in 2022 to find the latest New York speedster to beat Williams over the course of a full season.

It’s that type of rare athleticism you want up the middle in some capacity. Also standing at 5-foot-7, Williams lacks the size typically associated with corner spots, both on the dirt and grass.

But a big reason why the Mets acquired Semien was for his elite glovework at second base, where many thought Williams might end up long-term. Even during his age-34 season with the Rangers, Semien was worth 7 Outs Above Average (per Statcast), putting him in a tie for fifth among Major League second basemen, on his way to winning his second career American League Gold Glove Award.

It’s an easy call to slide the veteran atop New York’s depth chart at the keystone, ahead of Jeff McNeil, Ronny Mauricio and Acuña, each of whom got starts at second last season.

McNeil has seen time in the corner outfield, and David Stearns added he could be an occasional first-base option depending on how the rest of the offseason goes. Acuña and Mauricio have moved around the dirt plenty, with the former getting sparse looks in center, too.

But when it comes to the bat, none of the three have the long-term ceiling of Williams, who hit .261/.363/.465 with a career-high 17 homers in 130 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season.

Despite his size, the right-handed slugger does a good job of getting to his power by pulling and lifting the ball with regularity. Fifteen of his 17 homers came to left or left-center, and his 31.8 percent ground ball rate was sixth-lowest among the 209 Minor Leaguers with at least 500 plate appearances.

Plate discipline is Williams’ other offensive asset, as he rarely expands the zone against any pitch types. His walk rate dipped from 14.7 percent at Double-A to 9.3 at Triple-A, as pitchers with better command worked him better in the zone, but his overall mark of 13.3 was still sixth-best among Mets Minor League qualifiers, one spot ahead of Benge (13.1).

With Lindor and Semien penciled in as the Mets’ double-play tandem, Williams should adjust his Spring Training packing list for Port St. Lucie, putting his outfield glove right at the top.

 

High-leverage relievers still on the board after Ryan Helsley signing

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Pete Fairbanks is another name drawing attention after his option was declined. He’s been mentioned alongside Diaz, Suarez and Williams as a target for clubs like the Mets that are openly hunting “high-end bullpen solutions,” and his stuff still grades out as late-inning quality when healthy.

MACK – seasoned readers here know I have been in on this guy for a couple of seasons now. First, he was my helium alert… now he has graduated to the next best thing that will become a major league Met. When? Well, a lot of this will be determined on how the current rotation pans out. McLean is in it. Sproat and Tong will follow. Then, here comes Jack…

Tangotiger           @tangotiger

Joe Ryan is forecasted 18th highest WAR. Last I checked, there’s 30 MLB teams

That makes Ryan #1 starter for ~half the teams. Just because he doesnt throw 96 doesnt mean he CAN'T be #1 starter. Especially since his fastball is among best in baseball

 

Thomas Nestico           @TJStats

Since his rookie season in 2020, Devin Williams’ "airbender" is the most valuable changeup in MLB

 

On a rate basis, no other changeup comes close

 

Dan Bartels                 @DanBartels2

Potential 2026 Mets Bullpen:

CL) Edwin Díaz

SU8) Devin Williams

SU7) Brooks Raley

MID) Tyler Rogers

MID) A.J. Minter

MID) Adbert Alzolay

MID) Dylan Ross

LR) Huascar Brazobán

           MACK –

           I like this, but it isn’t reality until it’s reality. I just don’t see the Mets investing into three more top relievers to start the 2026 season. Two, maybe. One, probably. Also, this is the first time I have ever seen Ross’ name actually projected into the Mets pen. I would be overly thrilled if it happened. Frankly, with the Devin Williams signing, Ross’s potential to be a major league closer someday lines him up perfectly being a major piece in a trade proposal. 

                         Sam Maxwell     @THE_SamMaxwell

Wow, I just finally saw Devin Williams’ numbers. The fact he had a 1.13 whip but a 4.79 ERA indicates a lot about the Yankees behind him to me.

MACK – I’m starting to REALLY like this pickup.

Pete Alonso’s Market

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For a second offseason in a row, it does not appear that Pete Alonso’s market is very active. Teams interested in Alonso include the Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Baltimore Orioles. However, there can also be that “surprise team” like a Washington Nationals or Tampa Bay Rays.

Executives across the league view the Mets and Red Sox as the front-runners at the moment. While the Orioles are looking for one big bat this offseason, they aren’t a huge threat to the Mets as opposed to a team like the Red Sox.

With the addition of starting pitcher Sonny Gray, the expectation is that the Red Sox will now look for a prominent bat. Names linked to the Red Sox of that caliber consist of J.T. Realmuto, Kazumo Okamoto, Alonso, and former Boston players Kyle Schwarber and Alex Bregman.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the Red Sox are considering adding one player from that group and then “an additional complementary position player.”

If the Red Sox do indeed decide to go that route, this obviously benefits the Mets in a big way. Earlier in the offseason, sources told The New York Post’s Jon Heyman that Alonso is seeking “at least” a seven-year deal. As the offseason moves along, teams have already started driving that number down – and it will likely continue to drop.

New York or Boston?

The Red Sox may be one of the only clubs willing to give Alonso the long-term commitment he’s seeking. With his wife, Haley, being from the Boston area, the fit makes sense on multiple levels. But if Boston passes, Alonso’s leverage – and the likelihood of landing the contract he and agent Scott Boras have targeted – may shrink dramatically.

“Whether a contract comes early or late for me, I know I am going to be playing baseball next year,” said Alonso.

 

SleeperMets        @SleeperMets

Jon Heyman on Edwin Diaz:

"Could be a battle between the Blue Jays and Mets for Edwin Diaz.”

MACK -  I consider Heyman a ragman who values his reputation and doesn’t go “to print” unless he feels he has solid, accurate info to share. You may rejoice at this news, but one of the teams right now that you do not want to get hto a bidding war with is the Jays,