2/5/26

Paul Articulates - The East will be a Beast


The Mets have re-tooled for this year, changing their core and strengthening their pitching staff.  But New York is not the only city where teams have been upgrading to maintain competitiveness in the National League East division.  The Mets re-build has been talked about quite a bit on this site and others that are focused on the team.  Here we will take a look at the competition to see how they stack up.

Philadelphia Phillies - The Phillies have won the NL East in the last two years, but have lost the division series in both years, once to the Mets and once to the eventual champs the LA Dodgers.  Their team has boasted both strong pitching (led by former Met RHP Zack Wheeler) and potent offense.  The team has aged, but have generally stuck with their roster.  During the off-season, they re-signed Kyle Schwarber (33), JT Realmuto (35), and a host of others.  They lost Harrison Bader and Ranger Suarez to free agency, and lost outfielder Max Kepler to a drug suspension.  They signed Adolis Garcia as a right fielder to replace the defensive liability Nick Castellanos, and did very little to bolster an aging pitching staff.  My projection here is that the Phillies fall from their pedestal to a fourth place finish in the East this year.

Atlanta Braves - The Braves were the NL East champs in both 2024 and 2023, and also won the division four consecutive times from 2018 to 2021.  Last year they were completely decimated by injuries to their premier players like Ronald Acuna and their pitching staff.  That was an anomaly that will not re-occur this year.  They return several players who spent time on the injured list last year, and have made some moves to bolster an aging pitching staff.  Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach will be full strength, and the ageless Chris Sale will also be back.  They re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias and brought in relief pitchers Robert Suarez and Joe Jimenez to strengthen their pen.  Although new SS Ha-Seong Kim has gone down in an off-season injury, the rest of their infield will look like previous dynasty lineups: Matt Olsen at first, Austin Riley at third, and Ozzie Albies at second.  With Sean Murphy back at catcher and Jurickson Profar as DH, they will field a formidible lineup.  Expect them to compete for the lead this year in the East.

Miami Marlins - The Marlins always seem like they are a year away from the playoffs, and then they fold in the second half and only exist to put a dagger in the Mets in September.  This year may be different.  They did not trade Sandy Alcantara or Edward Cabrera as rumored.  Those two, along with righty Eury Perez, will represent a formidable top three starting pitchers.  They are taking a risk with a very young core to anchor the lineup for 2026 with players like Griffin Conine, Joe Mack, and Owen Caissie.  I don't expect them to contend for the East championship, but expect them to make life difficult for the teams that do.

Washington Nationals - This is the year that the Nationals need to demonstrate the effectiveness of their development system.  Players like James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Dylan Crews have long been heralded as prospects, but with a few years under their belts as MLB players they need to carry this team.  Keibert Ruiz is a catcher that was also touted, but his star is fading, and there is another prospect named Harry Ford that may take the season by storm in 2026.  The biggest surprise of the off-season was the trade of MacKensie Gore to the Texas Rangers.  With such a talented group of prospects coming of age, one would have expected the Nationals to retain their best starter.  Instead, the Nationals have gone back to the well of high draft picks to continue their development.  They will once again come up short.

There you have it - the NL East will continue to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, but this season it will be a battle between the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves for the title.  Philly will fight the Nationals and Marlins for third.  

11 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Paul, sounds about right. I’m less convinced than you that Atlanta’s health will sufficiently return. Chris Sale will be 37, and may continue to defy talent decline, but is injured a lot. The Mets pitching, meanwhile, disintegrated. May the least injury-plagued team win. Two guys that missed almost no 2025 games combined were Alonso and Nimmo, and that sturdiness will be hard to replace.

TexasGusCC said...

A correction and an opinion.

Edward Cabrera was traded to the Cubs. They ripped the Cubs off, but I don’t care.

In my opinion, the Braves offense will be their Achilles heel. Olsen and Murphy are ancient and Riley and Acuna cannot do it alone. Can Drake Baldwin double down on his rookie of the year season? I see a three way fight for the division with the good guys finally pulling away at the end, but all three in the playoffs.

TexasGusCC said...

I see Pete Alonso = Kris Bryant. He got his deal, and he will become soft. As for Nimmo, I think he will struggle in that ballpark.

Mack Ade said...

There are injuries and then there are Braves rotation injuries. Congrats for not tearing your uniforms, guys.

I too think the Phils fade, but I also think the Braves will rise in their mound ashes and win the division

Tom Brennan said...

Saw a rumor (credible?) that the Mets might trade both Baty and Vientos to Pittsburgh for quality controllable starting pitching. THAT would sure shake things up.

Mack Ade said...

Reimer would be thrilled

Tom Brennan said...

If Reimer hadn’t missed almost all of 2024 with injuries like his torn hammy, he’d be ready bat-wise. Hopefully his defense is ramping up to match the stick.

TexasGusCC said...

The Pirates have inquired about one or the other, not both. Ever since they signed Bichette, keeping Baty was weird. You cash him in and worry about next year, next year. A lot can happen before then, and Polanco can also play third base anyway if Bichette wants to waltz away from $42 per year for two years.

Paul Articulates said...

I would rather deal Reimer to the Pirates. He will command a better price right now with his prospect status but frankly will never fit in the Mets' new run prevention priority scheme.

Mack Ade said...

My guess is, if Reimer goes to Syracuse he will split time with Clifford at 1B

Ryan can rotate in corner outfield positions and DH

Rds 900. said...

The Mets win the East in a runaway.