As the umpteenth minor addition to the major or minor league roster just took place with multiple catchers and numerous AAAA outfielders people are still wondering about the bigger pieces that still seem to be missing. No one disputes needing to have extra players available in the system for injuries and slumps that are sure to occur during the season, but there is a bigger question that folks have asked openly or are too reticent to speak aloud.
Are the current 2026 Mets better or worse than the 2025 Mets that fell off the baseball cliff and struggled even to hit the .500 mark when early in the season they were on top of the world. Let’s take a look.
The 2025 starting rotation was a huge mess due to injuries and ineffectiveness. At various point Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, Tylor Megill, Jonah Tong, Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat among others made their way into the regular 5-man rotation.
For 2026 the top four remain the same but now they are accompanied by Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean from day one of the season. Obviously the latter two are HUGE additions to the pitching mix and with a return to health there is optimism both Manaea and Senga will perform at a much higher level. Even Holmes could be better with more arm strength as he tended to wear down a bit as the year wore on. It would seem that the starting rotation should indeed be better.
Gone is closer Edwin Diaz and his All Star repertoire as one of the most dominant firemen in the entire game. Following him out the door were some other pitchers who departed as free agents, including the three summer additions. At times the pen was a major disaster
For 2026 the Mets are hopeful that recovering AJ Minter is back soon to take his place in the setup rotation. Brooks Raley is back. Luke Weaver has been signed. Tobias Myers has been added. Closer duties now go to Devin Williams who needs to show he is more of the 241 games he played as a Brewer when he logged a 1.83 ERA from 2019 through 2024. Then came the Bronx. For a moment think back to some of the off years from Diaz and hope that it was an exception based upon the glowing track record that preceded the 2025 season. Backing up these pitchers are an assortment of contenders who are either towards the end of their careers or who have been pushed into that AAAA category. Most feel that another solid reliever would help but even without one it’s possible that the 2026 pen is better (particularly if Williams reverts to his Milwaukee form).
Here’s where things get a little trickier to understand. Pete Alonso provided on average 42 HRs and 114 RBIs. Brandon Nimmo provided his best ever year in 2025 with 25 HRs and 92 RBIs. Jeff McNeil contributed 12 HRs and 54 RBIs. Starling Marte offered up 9 HRs and 34 RBIs. Brett Baty gave the club 18 HRs and 54 RBIs. The remainder of the roster includes various ineffective center fielders, Juan Soto and the two Franciscos as well as the undefined role for Mark Vientos.
For 2026 there have been a lot of changes. Newcomer Bo Bichette hits for a higher average than anyone from 2025 while contributing 18 HRs and 94 RBIs. Jorge Polanco is good for an annual total of about 23 HRs and 85 RBIs. Marcus Semien is the toughest one to absorb. His bat has been downhill for a few straight years now, last season offering up just 15 HRs and 62 RBIs in an injury riddled year. However, in 2024 he hit 23 HRs and drove in 74 over the course of a full season. That’s pretty solid, but a steep drop off from the 100 RBI season in 2023 that was accompanied by 29 HRs. Which Semien the Mets have gotten is still unknown but it’s probably fair to project the 2024 numbers for 2026 assuming he remains healthy. Then there is the expensive addition of Luis Robert, Jr. whose glove and legs are unquestioned but whose bat is still a mystery in the mold of David Stearns’ other center field selections since coming over to the Mets. Add to them the return of the two Franciscos, Juan Soto and the still unknown third outfielder who may or may not be Brett Baty or MJ Melendez or Tyrone Taylor as well as the unknown DH who might be Mark Vientos. Right now it would appear that the 2025 Mets had a stronger offensive unit than the current team does.
8 comments:
The biggest difference in pitching staffs may be the health of the starters and the depth of the relievers. The starters were decimated with injuries and Stearns’ unwillingness to promote at least McLean and Sprout sooner showed in RVH’s August breakdown. As for the relievers, if the Mets had better options they wouldn’t need to pay top dollar for a gimmick sidearmer, a fast balling pitcher that imploded so badly that he had a negative WAR for just a handful of appearances, and a lefty that did well enough but wasn’t exceptional. Also, you correctly note that Diaz had his off years - when he wasn’t able to be a free agent - so we can’t say in advance how good he would be this year.
As for the offense, Roberts may be expensive in dollars, but was acquired for pittance and as Steve Cohen reminded us two days ago, he can spend too. As for the remainder of the lineup, there may be a drop off in Alonso + Nimmo to Bichette + Polanco, but the biggest drop off I fear is the Lindor hamate injury. After just reading an article about another player that had a hamate injury, bat speed and power suffer for a year following the injury.
However, last year the Mets had three players in the top 15 FanGraphs offensive players, and another one at 21, and look at what happened. So, hopefully the health of the starting staff and the defensive improvements should be suffice enough to offset any slight offensive decline.
It all comes down to injuries. If the pitchers stay significantly healthier, they will win more than in 2025. I’m looking forward to the new-look Mets.
To me the offense is certainly inferior, though if Bichette and Polanco adapt well to their new defensive roles then the run prevention may help offset the lower number of expected RBIs. Good pitching will help in this regard, too.
If the starting pitching is better, the Mets will be fine. McLean is the major wild card IMO. It was only 8 starts after all.
The starters had the worst possible year with multiple sustained injuries & exhaustion. The likelihood of a repeat is slim & thy are better positioned to manage through that scenario.
We can’t simply look at the individuals (new vs old). We need to look at how the team executed as a unit - on offense, defense & pitching.
The iffense was indeed explosive - until two guys strike out with men on 2db & 3rd & no runs score. The team went an incredible 0-70 trailing after 8 innings! The team had multiple awful losing streaks that were as bad as the ‘62 Mets team in June, August & September. The team went 1-2 scoring 7 & giving up 11 runs against Miami when they needed to win the series to qualify for the playoffs (& shut out on the final game), oh & the team lost series to the Reds, Rangers, (swept) by the Phillies, & Nationals in September when the pressure was on.
They were a terribly disappointing team last year. The 2026 team is absolutely better - without a single game to be played yet.
But they eliminated the out years on Alonso and Nimmo who, by the last year of their contracts, may be better suited for Old Timers games. I still think this was a good pivot to be ready for future prospect hitters on the rise.
Eight beauties, though.
All fans are going to have different opinions on what was accomplished this off season, I feel we should be better with the pitching (starters and relievers) and the offense. I would have liked to have kept Diaz but he had other plans apparently. If we get bounce back years from Senga and Manaea the pitching will be much better. The position players of adding Bo, Semien, Polanco, and Roberts have better overall numbers than the players we lost Pete, Nimmo, McNeil, Mullins, Siri and Ill throw in Taylor even thou he is still on the team. For the new players AVG 257, OBP 321, OPS 747 AB 1903,
K's 378 VS Departed players and Taylor AVG 233, OBP 312, OPS 707 AB 2073, K's 486. Realize only 7 less homers, and 22 less RBI's and this is with 170 less at bats for the additions and 100 less k's. The defense up the middle should also be much better. Let the games begin and we can then all see how Stearns did.
Post a Comment