9/23/14

Morning Report – September 23 – Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Famila, Dilson Herrera, Curtis Granderson, Boston Red Sox

48 comments

Mets/Braves: Jenrry Mejia earned his 27th save today against the Braves by continuing to elevate his elite career groundball rate. B.J. Upton flew out, but Simmons, Doumit and Pena all hit grounders (out, out and a single to center respectively). Of the 31 relievers with more than 10 saves, Mejia has the 16th best contact rate (better than McGee, Street, Papelbon, Rodney, Cishek and Perkins) and 8th best grounder rate. The 3.81 ERA/1.52 WHIP is uggly, but the .341 BABIP will certainly regress. The big complaint is the command, but he’s only 24 (the youngest of these 31 RP). I can see his swinging-strike rate and K% jumping about 2% next year, which would put him in Fernando Rodney surface stats territory (2.70 ERA/1.34 WHIP), but BABIP regression and a great groundball rate could keep the WHIP down.  I think he’s earned the role going into next year and the Mets probably won’t toy with him starting again based on their all-of-a-sudden depth assuming health. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-september-20-2014/

Mack – As I have said numerous times, it’s nice to see what the outsider experts think about our players.

I’m still a believer that the incumbent wins in a situation like this (Bobby Parnell), but Mejia is an emotional kind of guy that only signed off on going to the pen because he was going to be the closer. Take that away from him and I’m not that sure how effective he would be.



Jeurys Familia will not play winter ball in the Dominican Republic this winter, he said. With 73 appearances already to his record this season, the Mets reliever needs the rest. The decision will make Terry Collins and the Mets happy. After Familia reached uncharted territory this season, the manager is hoping that Familia can come to spring training next season in top form. http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2014/09/mets_hoping_jeurys_familia_can_be_right_for_spring_training.html

                  Mack. Good. He’s pitched enough this year.

I didn’t realize this guy was in that many games, though it shouldn’t come as a surprise since so many Mets starters hit the 100 pitch count in their 6th inning.

I sure wish there was a 26-man limit because the Mets really need to carry an additional member of the peon.



Adam Rubin

With Dilson Herrera injured, Wilfredo Tovar will join the Mets in D.C. Tovar is already on the 40-man roster

Mack – Interesting. This has nothing to do with the ability of Matt Reynolds. It’s all about the fact that Tovar is already on the 40-man.

Additionally, Herrera was the first Met to announce that he will be playing winter ball in the Dominican (Licey). TC backed up that statement with:

"In winter ball, it's not about developing. It's about winning. You go down there, you better be ready to perform, and perform at a big level. And I think it's good for a young player to go down there like Dilson, because it's a great league, especially if you play long enough down there where the stars start to come out in December. You can face some pretty good competition. And I think the better competition you play, the better you're going to become."

According to Herrera, he will only play winter ball for one month. He misses his family… it looks like the Mets are investing long term in Herrera.



My initial thought from watching Curtis Granderson play daily was that he is striking out at a much higher rate. In fact, his K% is lower than it was in 2011 and 2012, and on par with what it was in 2010. And here is where we come to his HR/FB. Although Granderson is hitting about the same FB%, the percent of his fly balls that are going out of the park is dismally low compared to how it was when he was hitting 40+ home runs at Yankee Stadium. Although this could partially be age-related, it could be easily argued that a huge component of this is also the change in ballpark where Granderson plays. It is hard to determine if Granderson could possibly change his approach somehow to adjust to CitiField’s landscape when he is going to be 34 years old next year. The future is looking bleak for Mets fans unless Granderson can figure out how to turn things around next season. http://www.fangraphs.com/community/curtis-granderson-another-mets-free-agent-bust/

Mack – I was thrilled when the Mets signed Granderson to a 4-year, $60mil deal, but I might have been more thrilled because the Mets spent this kind of money on anybody. I never expected to see any 4-year deals out of Sandy Alderson or Fred Wilpon past the 8-year deal for David Wright.

As it turned out, everybody said that 2013 was an ‘off year’ for him because of multiple injuries. He did still manage to punch out 214 at-bats with and OPS of 723. As of Saturday, his OPS with the Mets was .699.

There’s a chance Grandy will finish the season with 20 home runs, which is a good thing, but it’s an embarrassment that he basically has become the fifth or sixth hitter in an anemic lineup.

Yeah I know... he's finishing strong in Septemeber... but spending $60mil for these kind of results would compare to signing Dan Uggla

Bad mistake here.       



We continue our search for a trading partner in the American League East division and the Boston Red Sox.

According to Cot[i], the Red Sox have a 2014 payroll of $156,350,125.

Outfield wise, Yoenis Cespedes has one more year (2015) on his contract, at $10.5mil… IMO, consider this a very cheap investment into a very good ballplayer… Shane Victorino also has the 2015 season left on his contract at $13mil… Allan Craig is a recent addition and is contracted through a team option in 2018… and Daniel Nava is pre-ARB at $5565K… and lastly, there still is the ex-prospect Jackie Bradley Jr., who seems to have lost both his way and his job.

Long term, they recently signed Cuban Rusney Castillo who is now signed through the 2020 season and assigned to their AAA affiliate. We can safely assume he will take over a future starting role in Boston, as early as next season.

As if this isn’t enough, there’s prospects Mookie Betts and Gavin Cecchini banging on the door.

That’s eight outfielders, right?

Shortstop wise, Xander Bogaerts (.237) owns this job and is team controlled, pre-ARB. Prospect wise, ex-first rounder Deven Marrero has been somewhat of a bust and is still considered two years away because of his silent bat. 2018 ETA Michael Chavis really projects more as a future second baseman.

Mack Observation – it’s no big secret that Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner wants a top shelf starter for the 2015 season[ii] There’s plenty of young talent coming down the pipeline, but an established pitcher will make things much easy for the Red Sox to reach their goals. What Sandy Alderson has to determine if Werner considers some of the Mets-vets (Gee, Niese, Colon) someone that fits his plan.

That being said, the Sox have made it very clear that they will be going on an off-season shopping spree to build around their new nucleus of young additions (Betts, Cespedes, Castillo). It doesn’t look like we will recognize this team in 2016.

IMO, there’s only one player on the Mets that can get a deal done here… Zack Wheeler. You want Nava or Betts, you have to deal Wheeler.

Lastly, I’d love a shot at Bradley Jr. I think a good coach on a new team could turn this kid around, especially if someone like Granderson would take him under his wing and train him as his replacement. You would be surprised at how little the Red Sox would probably want here to get this kid

48 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Grandy for 4 years was a bad move, but the article notes he lost a lot of his power #'s due to Citi dimensions. They must be fixed this winter, and done right. It is stupid to invest $60MM in someone and not set it up so it succeeds.

If anyone were to go to Bosox for Mookie Betts, I'd say Gee AND Niese before Wheeler. Keep the young studs. Betts is small but seems to be high ceiling.

I would not want Nava - he is already 31, and I have a sneaking suspicion Dekker could approach his #'s next year if given the chance.

Thomas Brennan said...

Fortunately for Jennry, Parnell won't be ready opening day in all likelihood, so it will be up to him to be the opening day closer and to improve on this year's results to keep the closer's job. If he is doing great when Bobby P is ready to return, it would be hard to yank him and put Parnell in. More likely, it would then happen (if at all) only if Jennry hit a rough patch after Parnell showed he was 100%.

I like Jennry in the spot more, but he needs to improve - blown saves and losses need to come down if Mets will have a real chance to get in playoffs in 2015.

Thomas Brennan said...

Unrelated note: teams sometimes get the unexpected explosion from a guy and choose to go with a hot hand when they should count themselves lucky and bench the guy again. Reese often brought that up when Flores got called up and Tejada got hot and was stuck in line up and then did very little.

Chris Young hits like a house of fire for Yanks for a few games, then in his last 10 games, he does something the Mets were all too familiar with: 5 for 33, with no RBIs. Goodbye wild card. Good bye, Chris Young career?

Christopher Soto said...

@Tom

What makes you say Parnell will not be ready for opening day? Last I heard he was already throwing and should be 100% before Spring Training.

John Zozo said...

I just don't see a spot for Betts, 3rd base? If he is to play OF, they would have to probably trade both Victorino and Allen Craig. I also believe they might be players for the newest Cuban outfielder and make a trio of Cubans out there for them?
Our extra guys we can trade without disrupting our future in my opinion are
Murphy
Montero
Plawecki
Colon
Gee
Niese
I believe just our starters and maybe Murphy would interest them in a trade. Do you guys think a Mejia could land us Betts?

Ernest Dove said...

I feel like my memory is not the greatest, especially since my daughter was born and took away all possible sleep, but wasn't Parnell always a better 8th inning guy then a closer?
Im way too lazy and tired to back this up by researching stats, but I feel like this is true.

Christopher Soto said...

@Ernest

Bobby Parnell career stats by Inning

7th: 50 IP, 3.75 ERA, .281 AVG against, 8.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
8th: 99 IP, 2.64 ERA, .255 AVG against, 8.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
9th: 93 IP, 2.88 ERA, .255 AVG against, 7.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Mack Ade said...

Interesting 8th inning stats on Parnell...

John Zozo said...

I definitely think we can trade a player or two from our relief corps this winter. It's also a strength for us because we have guys like Mazzoni, leatherisch, and Montero coming up as well.
Especially considering our 40 man crunch we are about to face, we should consider it. Even though this a strength we haven't had in many years.
I like the Sandy Alderson extension, I just wish he didn't sound like a mister know it all all the time. I think he has done a good job, only mistakes he has done is Bidding against himself for Granderson, Colon and Frank Fransico.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hi Chris - maybe so on Parnell. I had not heard he's progressed that much, but he did not get operated on til around mid-April. Usually a 12 month minimum on TJS, right? So I thought we'd see him back either in warmer May or possibly June.

Maybe he will be ready to go in cold weather April NY. Hope so.

Thomas Brennan said...

I can hear Tony Bennett singing to Alderson, "You left your dough, with Frank Francisco". Fortunately a guy whose initials corresponded with his Met performance (FF) is long gone.

thunder12k said...

I know there were some discussions regarding acquiring Allen Craig yesterday. The guy put up solid offensive numbers from 2011-2013 but had a pretty terrible 2014.

I would have no problem with a Gee for Craig swap. Gee has no future with this team and unless he can be used to net someone else capable of producing 90+ RBIs like Craig did in 2012 and 2013, then I would make this trade.

Can't wait to start talking about the Astros farm system. Niese and a bullpen arm for Domingo Santana? Gee and a bullpen arm for Teoscar Hernandez. I'd take either one of these guys over Craig.

Brian Joura said...

The Mets don't need a 26th player - they just need to stop making players perform in sub-optimal roles and not pitch guys just because it's a certain inning.

There is not one reason on earth to turn Josh Edgin into a LOOGY. He does not get lit up by RHB like Scott Rice did. If the manager would stop insisting on using Edgin for one and two-batter appearances, there would be little bullpen strain.

Also, if we just took a look at the game logs, we could probably find 10 games where there was no reason to bring in Familia. If we don't use the closer in non-save situations, why are we bringing in the over-worked 8th inning guy when we have a six-run lead?

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I think the Francisco thing has stayed in the mind of Alderson and it could be a major reason why he hates multiple year contracts.

Lucky for us, we may not need any

Mack Ade said...

Brian -

Sorry about your loss.

James Preller said...

I agree with Brian Joura on Edgin. As to the second point, I do not have any personal recollection of 6-run leads . . .

Reese Kaplan said...

Nava is the ultimate "meh" type of acquisition. He does not have stunning power nor speed. Why is he needed?

Of the remaining players likely to be moved, I'd be all in on Betts but not as happy with Bradley regardless of the price. The one who might be an interesting get, however, is Allen Craig. He had an awful year and with the other positions consumed by Castillo, Victorino and Cespedes. He's a quality hitter and signed to a very reasonable contract -- about $8.75 million per year for 3 years including his buyout of the 4th year if necessary. Maybe he's the reverse of Curtis Granderson -- does better in the more familiar NL.

Mack Ade said...

I do think that Boston would make a good trading partner and I would gladly trade either Gee or Niese for Craig

Christopher Soto said...

@James

Here are Juerys Familia's appearances sorted by runs we were behind or in the lead

Tie Game: 19 appearances, .197 Avg Against
Within 1 R: 15 appearances, .213 Avg Against
Within 2 R: 16 appearances, .219 Avg Against
Within 3 R: 8 appearances, .223 Avg Against
Within 4 R: 7 appearances, .207 Avg Against
Lead/deficit > 4 R: 13 appearances, .268 Avg Against

Christopher Soto said...

So that's roughly 20 appearances that he did not have to make.

Thomas Brennan said...

If Colon the innings eater leaves, Terry will have to get more innings with fewer appearances from some of these pen guys. Leathersich migh be an interesting lefty. Does very well vs righties, struggles vs lefties but improved in 2014 in that regard. So he might defy the LOOGIE logic. He's almost always gone several batters an outing in minors.

bob gregory said...

Cespedes would be a wonderful acquisition from the Redsox.

There is certainly enough talent to be used as bait.

It would be interesting to be able to eaves-drop in on both GMs' internal evaluations of what would be needed to make such a trade work for their team.

Mack Ade said...

Boston and the Mets have a lot in common right now... they both didn't make the playofs and one has an excess of pitchers and needs an outfielder, while the other has an excess of outfielders and needs a pitcher.

There has to be a deal here.

bob gregory said...

Honestly

If the Mets decide to make a trade I would much rather it was with the intention of acquiring a difference maker offensively.

As good as Craig or others may be.... I would rather the Mets over-pay in trade assets (if necessary)to acquire a true offensive difference maker.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

"Difference makers" are rare on the open market, but the Mets have the pieces to put together a multi-player deal that won't hurt their roster...

they can offer:

Plawecki
Gee or Niese
Murphy
secondary pitcher (Verrett, Gorski, etc)

for...

someone like CarGo or Tulo...

Anonymous said...

Gotta be Meijia's job to lose. First, eijia's age 24 season is better than Parnell's and we should expect improvement. Second, do we really expect Parnell to come back right where he left off?

Sure, it sucks to lose your job because of something out of your control, but you play to win. Put in the guy with the best chance to win and worry about hurting feelings later.

Since we have a bullpen full of solid relievers, how about we do something innovative and just eliminate the closer. Use your best matchup at the most critical points of the game. ENough of this silly closer stuff.

Anonymous said...

Mack-

Don't think that package would bring much of a "difference-maker".

Most teams willing to trade their youngish big timer player, are not going to be interested in Murphy, Niese, or Gee. They are going to want young, cost controlled guys.

Even with Tulo's recent injuries, he will demand far more than proposed. For anyone that is more than a marginal upgrade from our current stand-ins (Flores, MDD, etc.), I think you are looking at 3-4 of our recent prospects from the top 100 lists.

Reese Kaplan said...

Was Keith Hernandez a "difference maker" when he was acquired? He was a very solid bat and spectacular glove but not the prototypical slugger that most people envision for the role...yet he complemented the rest of the team very well. Gary Carter was the difference maker.

Right now theoretically you have 30 HR power from three people -- Duda, Wright and Granderson. So you may not need but certainly desire a Gary Carter type of bat. Consequently a Craig or Cespedes along with rebounds from Wright and Granderson, Flores over Tejada, and the maturation of Travis d'Arnaud spell good offense.

They're not getting Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout or Jose Abreu. You then go to the next tier -- 20 HR power with a solid batting average (a'la Keith Hernandez).

Anonymous said...

Hernandez was certainly a difference maker. Top 10 player in all of baseball from 80-83 according to WAR.

Though i do agree with your targets for an upgrade. HR in Citi are overrated. Gap power w/ lots of doubles, .290+, and solid OBP please.

thunder12k said...

Allen Craig brought those attributes to the Cardinals for 3 straight seasons. He had an awful year last year but he has the ability to rebound and really help. He does carry some injury concern though.

Also, enough talk about MDD and Campbell. They are fine as role players but they are not corner outfielders on contenders. If they are platooning on opening day, then we can look forward to another 0.500 season.

The Red Sox and Mets could definitely match up. Maybe it's Montero for Nava. Maybe it's Wheeler for Betts. Hopefully something in between.

bob gregory said...

Mack
That is along the lines I would be thinking.
Add in Kemp, Cespedes, Jose Bautista, Braun, anyone else you can think of.....

J. Heyward (not likely to happen)

bob gregory said...

Thunder
If it were my choice, which clearly it is not, I would not even entertain Nava.
Betts I am not familiar enough with.
I would only focus on Cespedes from the Redsox

Mack Ade said...

Bob Greg -

You are on the right track here.

Some that read and post here disagree but a package with

1. a top prospect catcher
2. a proven starter
3. an all-star second baseman
4. and another pitcher...

can bring one dam good player from a team that has multiple holes to fill

Anonymous said...

No doubt that there is value there, but tell me what team needs/wants a) an offensive 2b that's 30, b) a borderline #3 pitcher that has injury concerns c) can absorb 12+ million.

You need a team that can absorb all of that... my guess few have that need/desire and payroll flexibility.
Plus, your banking on a quantity for quality trade.

OK, so you found that team...but do they have the LF or SS that fits our needs?

Seems like a longshot. However, i bet a number of teams would be interested in receiving 3-4 cost controlled top prospects.

Mack Ade said...

Anonymous -

I don't know, anonymous.

Let me ask you a question...

How come 90% of the negative comments here are left by people who can't even take the time to enter their name or even make one up?

Anonymous said...

I am not sure. Perhaps because most registered at Mack's Mets hold a similar outlook? I am willing to guess most of the registered users on Fox News are Conservatives who share similar views on gun control etc. etc. The anonymous users are those who read an article, disagreed, then felt compelled to comment.

My question is why you object to readers of your blog who do disagree or are less optimistic than you? Would it really make a difference if i "identified" myself and then said i thought your trade proposal was unrealistic?

bob gregory said...

Anonymous
Boston, Toronto, LA, Colorado

bob gregory said...

Milwaukee

Mack Ade said...

Anonymous-

Yes, it would make a difference to me.

First, I don't know how many of them there are writing here and I would like to be able to address each one seperately (believe me, you are wrong about some of the 'regulars' here... they all aren't drinking from the same fountain)

And lastly, it just would be the gentlemanly thing to do.

Anonymous said...

My argument isn't that there aren't trades to be made, just that packaging Murphy, Niese/Gee, + prospects for a good player is beyond difficult.

For instance:

LA has a 2b & 3b better than DM who are on the books for next year. He has no value to them.

Red Sox: Have Pedroia and Holt.. DM not so attractive.

Toronto: DM might be appealing, but they have 5 starters who have performed better than Gee & Niese this year.

Colorado: Could use DM at 2b and could use a pitcher, but Niese and Gee are only marginally better than what they have got. Who do we want from them? I am sure we could land Cargo, but do we want him?

Brewers have a pretty nice platoon at 2b, that is just about as productive as DM. They might be interested once Weeks is gone. Also might be interested in a pitcher. Who do we want? Braun?

Who knows if these teams even have the flexibility to absorb at least 12+ in contracts for next year.

Now if you want to talk about including prospects instead of Murphy and Gee/Niese, than I am sure those teams would have some real interest.

bob gregory said...

Anonymous

I have to disagree with some of your assessments.

Holt would not dissuade the Redsox from seeing Murphy as an upgrade.

The Dodgers may not have H. Ramirez playing 3b next year or even on their team.

You are over valuing the Blue jays & Colorado pitchers or under valuing Gee/Niese/Colon

S.Finch said...

I've been accused of being many things, being anything other than a gentleman was never one of them. ;)

bob gregory said...

Anonymousesesesessss

I don't believe registered accounts are needed to post with a name on Mack's site here.
1) if you have a Gmail account you can use that
2) you can go to the NAME/URL option and just choose which name you want to post as

S.Finch said...

ehh..

Holt has been pretty darn comparable to DM, is 4 years younger, and a lot cheaper. In fact, Baseball reference says he has been more valuable in fewer at-bats this season (Daniel Murphy's career year BTW.) Perhaps they would like some veteran experience, but 3b is certainly not a need for the Bosox

Hanley has not played any 3b for the dodgers...Juan Uribe & Dee Gordon have both performed better than DM this year & will be on the team next year. DM has zero value to them.


Blue jays worst starter: J.A. Happ has been better than both Niese & Gee. Nese/Gee are probably better going forward, but by how much?

Rockies: Maybe i exaggerated a bit. If they could use Murphy and Gee/Niese, what would you package them for?

Again, I am not saying DM, Niese, Gee, don't have value. I just don't think a package is where that value lies. I think there value is with a contender who wants an upgrade in exchange for prospects.

bob gregory said...

Sorry Finch
but I guess we will have to just disagree on Murphy's value compared to the others you mentioned and Gee/Niese's values.
the beauty is though...all. of these names need only be part of a package.
Mack originally pointed out 4 specific players the Mets could use as part of a package.
Placing Plawecki, Gee, Niese, Murphy on the table certainly opens a discussion.
Luckily the Mets have a lot of possibilities for that conversation to explore.
I would be more interested in any conversation that led towards a player that could carry a team during a couple game stretch such as Cespedes, Braun, Kemp, Bautista......etc
anything less than this level I personally would rather focus on returning more prospects in any trade

bob gregory said...

Yikes almost 50 posts?!
Mack....
is this a Mack's Mets record?

Mack Ade said...

I think it is...

Anonymous said...

I agree with the assessed return here. I like Mack's idea of putting multiple ML pieces together along with mid rotation prospect and a top notch catcher. That package could change a middling team upwards, but if required return was a big bat, the Net Net so to speak, would not be such a haul after all. I like Anon plan to peel off each vet for highest prospect return and use to replenish minors from graduations or to create new trade package. I think this may bring best return, but best news is that it clears $30M in payroll, clears spots for new Harvey/DeGrom/Wheeler and gets a return.

I try to post different, but this is Anon Joe F to clarify if I can't figure out!!

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