But the way the word is being used is doing too much work without enough precision.
Not all variance is created equal. Some of it is noise you expect; some is a signal you should worry about. Most importantly, some of it is structural—baked into how a roster is built before Opening Day.
If we want to understand the construct of the 2026 Mets, we have to clarify how they are looking to manage their "variance" risk.
1. Structural Variance: The Design of the Floor
What the roster allows to happen over 162 games.
Structural variance is about architecture, not performance. It is the range of outcomes the roster permits before a single pitch is thrown. Think of this as your downside protection.
It comes from role redundancy, defensive range, contact depth, and innings coverage. In other words: How many things can go wrong before the system starts to break?
Low structural variance doesn’t mean a team is great; it means the team has a floor. It can survive the "biological warfare" of a long season—the inevitable injuries and slumps—without a total system collapse. High structural variance means small problems cascade into season-defining crises.
How to diagnose structural variance:
The Cascade Effect: Does one injury force three players to move out of position?
The Stabilization Test: Does the team still look functional during an ugly 2–4 week stretch?
The “Boring Win” Indicator: Can the team win a 4–2 game in June through steady, professional execution, or does every victory require ninth-inning heroics?
2. Executional Variance: The Human Element
How well players perform inside the structure.
Executional variance is what fans usually mean when they say “variance.” It’s the hot streaks, slumps, aging curves, and timing. It is the ignition phase of a season—where results can swing wildly based on individual output.
Every team has this. Even the Dodgers have stars who go 0-for-20. The key question isn’t whether executional variance exists, but whether the roster requires peak execution just to function.
Teams with high executional dependence are brittle; they need everyone to be an All-Star simultaneously. Teams with lower dependence can survive “good enough” seasons from multiple spots because the underlying structure absorbs the dips.
How to observe executional variance:
Contagion: Are slumps isolated to one player, or do they paralyze the entire lineup?
Redundancy: Do off-days from Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor automatically sink the game?
The Margin for Error: Are pitchers allowed to be imperfect without the entire game unraveling?
3. Interactive Variance: The Great Early-Season Deceiver
Where execution masks or exposes structure.
This is where fans—and front offices—most often get misled. Interactive variance occurs when temporary executional swings hide the structural reality.
A lights-out bullpen can mask thin rotation depth for a month. A power surge can hide a complete lack of contact ability. This is why April conclusions are so dangerous. A team can look stable because execution is running hot (the "ignition" is working), but once that heat fades, you find out if there is actual capacity underneath.
The question is always the same: What happens when the "good" breaks?
How to Monitor the 2026 Mets
Instead of asking, “Are the Mets good?” apply these diagnostic filters each month:
Failure Modes: Are losses coming from the same repeated flaw, or different isolated causes?
Optionality: When something breaks, does the response look planned or desperate?
The Boring Factor: Are they winning the games they should win through professional redundancy?
Recovery Cycles: Do losing streaks stall at three games, or accelerate into ten?
The Real 2026 Question
The Mets will experience variance in 2026. Every team does. That part isn’t up for debate.
The real question is whether this roster absorbs variance or amplifies it. Whether problems stay local or go systemic. Whether we’re watching a team that relies on miracles—or one built for Durable Survival.
That’s not something we’ll know in April. But if we watch the structure instead of just the box score, we’ll see the answer long before the standings reflect it.
2 comments:
Interesting that you include a Cascade Effect but that’s exactly the team Stearns built. Peralta was asked what it was like to pitch in front of four shortstops and he said that it’s a wild concept but he loves it. Truth is, they are meant to be flexible while being effective… hopefully.
Hopefully indeed!
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