The New York Mets have completely re-tooled their lineup this year. In their efforts to improve run prevention, there had to be some sacrifices, and their power game was the one to go. There are still some hitters in the lineup with some pop, but this year the team needs to score runs by stringing hits together and aggressively running the bases. As of last night, the team is seventh in MLB in runs scored with 55 while registering 23rd in baseball in home runs.
With those numbers, one could surmise that the new approach is working. A seventh-rated scoring offense coupled with improved defense and pitching should be a recipe for success. This is without much contribution yet from Francisco Lindor (off to his typical slow start) and Juan Soto (out with a calf strain).
Of course, it is early and these numbers could be significantly different in a few months. At least for now there doesn’t seem to be any need for adjustments. However, there is more to the game than just the analytics output. The games I have seen have revealed a flaw that could lead to adverse results. That flaw is located in the coaching box on the third base line.
My concern is that the base running has lost its aggressiveness that the Mets enjoyed in the 2024 season and into the first half of the 2025 season. Without aggressive base running, the team needs multiple hits or home runs to score. We know that the power is lagging from last year, and the team batting average of .248 does not inspire confidence for many multiple hit innings. So the team has to take advantage of every opportunity on the bases to score. So far I do not believe that is happening.
Tim Leiper is the new third base coach this season after the Mets let prior 3B coach Mike Sarbaugh go in the major purge last October. Tim came to the team with a solid coaching resume and has manned both the first and third base lines. Since he is very familiar with the position, but not necessarily familiar with the speed of the Mets players, he gets an early pass – but the caution flag is up.
I have seen too many instances already of a fleet runner on second base being held at third on a single. The Mets have above average speed throughout the lineup and in some instances have very fast players. They should be taking extra bases, scoring from second on most singles, and scoring from first on doubles. In the second inning Sunday, Francisco Alvarez (not fast) scored without sliding on a Lindor double only because he blatantly ran through Leiper’s stop sign.
With the Mets’ pitching and defense, the team can put a great deal of pressure on opponents by scoring early. It is not a prudent strategy to start games with a wait-and-see approach. We also know that the Mets have traditionally had below average productivity with runners in scoring position. Once again, this justifies taking on some more risk on the base paths.
I miss Antoan Richardson already. He had such an aggressive baserunning approach with players both on and off the field that once they got running, Sarbaugh just needed to let them keep going. Now there appears to be speed bumps along the way that have to be removed.
Consider the young talent in the Mets’ system. Guys like Benge, Morabito, and Ewing are speedsters that should be brought up in an environment of aggressive base running. Now is the time to transform the MLB team into an exciting, base-hungry army of hustle players. Give them the green light – the fans will love it!
3 comments:
I am not a huge fan of hyper, aggressive base stealing in the early weeks. I’m just concerned with leg strains. On that Alvarez play, he didn’t run fast at all on Lindor’s double at first, which is why the third base coach is looking to hold him. I will say that in my opinion, it is worth being aggressive sending guys at third base in the right situations, because it just seems to me watching games now in recent years, that the throws are very errant coming in. When I was young, that seemed to be a rarity. I remember mostly very accurate throws from the outfield.I don’t know what’s changed. Of course, you have to know who the outfielder is. No doubt, some still have very accurate strong arms.
I agree. You know I believe that at bottom the heart of the game that the team, players and coaches can control, is identifying competitive advantages, turning them into strategic advantages and then executing on them. Team speed is a competitive advantage. If players don't get on base, they cannot do anything with that competitive advantage. That's where it begins, but not where it ends. If on base, that competitive advantage can become a strategic advantage in terms of the kinds of moves that are available: everything from taking leads, to base stealing to taking the extra base; in general to forcing the other team to 'make a play'. Right now speed is one of the potential contributors to the Mets' offense's ability to pressure on the opponent's pitching and defense. Hopefully the coaches will come to see the importance of putting as much pressure on an opponent's defense as well as pitching, and become more aggressive in the use of speed. Base stealing is only one aspect of that. Approach at the plate by hitters who come up should reflect knowledge of the pitcher but of the runners on base (if any). All these things work together., and it takes time.
Yes, caution is advised during cold weather outings. After that, run like the wind!
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