Cautious Optimist -- All the Young Dudes

 

Everyone says, 'Play the Kids'

The fact is that the Mets have been doing exactly that.  Maybe not just kids, but kids and de facto adolescents.  I have in mind the group composed of Benge, Ewing, McLean, Scott, Meyers, Tong, Baty, Vientos, Alvarez and Mauricio. The youngsters include Benge, Ewing, McLean, Tong and Alvarez.  The comparative adolescents are Scott, Meyers, Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio.  All under 30 -- and all but Meyers home grown.  By any reasonable standard, this group represents an extraordinary infusion of youth into the team, and an organizational success -- too easily overlooked and certainly underappreciated.

Unsurprisingly, not everyone who has been part of the current youth movement has been successful. In fairness, fans are concerned that those who have been around the longest have established themselves as the least likely to succeed: i.e. Baty, Vientos, Alvarez and Mauricio.  The fear is that we are likely to be disappointed by those we are most excited about now as they too will be exposed in the next year or two.  

Adding fuel to the fire is that last year's darling, Nolan McLean, has shown himself to be human, and may fall short of being a true ace capable of anchoring an entire pitching staff. 

Even given the normal Mets fan's hard earned pessimism, this level of anticipatory dismay is unwarranted.   Among the adolescents, Meyers and Scott have earned  their way on to next year's team, and beyond.  I remain hopeful that Mauricio will join them, but his time on the injured list reduces the time he has left to prove his worth.  By next year, he too will be without an option and a decision must be made.  Should he stay or should he go? The answer to that question falls to Stearns, not the Clash.

Of the true kids, Benge, Ewing and McLean have earned their way onto next year's roster and, barring injury, beyond.  I am appealing to special blogger privilege by including Tong along with others who have punched their ticket to next year's opening day bringing the total (setting aside Mauricio) to six youngsters out of ten that can be counted on to make up a quarter of next year's OD roster, and to figure prominently in the Mets plans over the next five years!

But there's more.  While I am explicit in suggesting that we part ways with Alvarez, Baty and Vientos while remaining undecided about Mauricio's fate, I think it's fair to count on others in the youth movement to play significant roles over the course of next season.  I would bet on at least two of Morabito, Santucci, Ross and Wenninger spending many a summer's day in Queens next year.  And while I would cut ties with Baty, Vientos and Alvarez, the FO may have a different view.  And so we may see as few as six and as many as ten of the under 30 crowd spending summer in the city at Citi Field.  

I may be in the minority, but I would argue that by any measure this represents serious organizational success. If you want to see the kids play, come to Queens because you'll see more of them there than at almost any other ballpark in the majors.

On the other hand, many reasonable questions abound 

It's one thing to fill a roster with young players, it's another to determine how good they are or will be and for how long?

What positions do they fill and how important are those positions?

McLean, Scott, Tong and ;Meyers are pitchers, as are Santucci, Wenninger and Ross.  We don't have to worry about their offensive fit.  They perform on the defensive/run prevention side of the ball.  The issue is whether the position players can contribute on both sides of the ball.

Ewing is the CF; Benge the RF.  Individually and jointly, they have given fans and the FO every reason to believe that they will be defensive stalwarts for years to come.  Offensively, Ewing has excellent bat to ball skills and Benge hits with line-drive power to all fields.  Both are plus baserunners and have displayed high levels of BB IQ and appear to be anything but overwhelmed playing under the bright lights of the city.

If Morabito earns a place in next years plans, it will be as the 4th outfielder, unless Soto moves to 1B in which case he may well be the starting LF.  

If Mauricio earns a place on next year's squad, it would be as a back-up infielder, bench piece, and occasional DH.  I would like to see the Mets work him out at 1B when he returns from injury, in the fall league and during Spring Training.  He should also abandon hitting as a right hander.  

I don't see Soto moving to 1B at this point in his career, so finding a genuine all around first baseman able to handle the position for three years or more is an issue for the Mets, and Mauricio should be volunteering to field grounders and receive throws in the dirt as soon as his hands can handle it, and the Mets should be open to seeing if his athleticism translates defensively to the position's demands.

Where do the youngsters fit in the batting order?  This is a more difficult question to answer.  Ewing is a classic leadoff hitter, but more and more teams look for more power as well as speed and contact at the top of the order.  Given how well he has done leading off, Benge is the likely lead off hitter.  Soto is the most patient hitter in the lineup.  He should return to the two spot. The more often Benge reaches first, the more fastballs he will see.  With Benge batting in front of him, Soto should have plenty of opportunities to drive runs in.  With Soto batting behind him, the more strikes Benge will see and the more selective he will be able to be as well.

Lindor and Bichette should bat third and fourth.  The question is, in which order.  While he still has plus speed, I would hit Lindor third and Bichette fourth as Lindor being on base does for Bichette what Benge's being on first does for Soto. Bichette came to the Mets with a stellar record of hitting with runners in scoring position.  This line-up configuration is designed to give him the best opportunity to live up to that reputation.

The Mets don't have a power bat other than Soto and the lineup should be designed to reflect the need to score runs in other ways. That's why I would be inclined to bat Ewing fifth and Polanco as the DH sixth. Again, Ewing on base in front of Polanco does for the latter what Lindor in front of Bichette and Benge in front of Soto do for the two of them.  This moves Semien to the seventh hole, with the 1B and catcher, completing the lineup. 

Only time will tell how good the youngsters become, but I think it's fair to say that the position player additions among them have given reason to believe that they will be plus defenders and at least major league average or better offensive players, especially if they can take advantage of their speed and contact skills.

All the young dudes may carry the news, but they cannot be expected to carry the load.

Start with the pitching staff.  I am not inclined to anoint any of the pitching prospects the Ace. All pitchers seem to lose a year to injury at some point, some sooner rather than later, some more than a year.  The most competitive teams have three number twos at least, each of whom flashes number one performance for some period of time during the season or over the course of a season or two.  

Whomever signs Skubal should understand that as well.  He has the physical presence of a 'horse on the mound' but he too will have his share of downs.  There are only a handful of true aces in baseball, but the length of time even they are likely to perform at that level has been reduced by the stress pitching to that standard game in and game out imposes mentally and physically.

I am all for pursuing Skubal, but what makes him worth the money is how high his floor is and how consistently he can rise above it. 

Of all the young Mets pitchers who can figure in the starting rotation of a championship contender, I am highest on Santucci, and have been from the start.  He needs more work and refinement, but he has dominant, nasty stuff and a bulldog mentality.  I want to believe that Scott and McLean have the same type of mentality.  They too need work.  Scott could use a change up with down and in movement to a right hander, and McLean throws too many pitches and needs more focus on quicker outs and less variety in the pitches he throws.  

I don't think fans understand how much of a change in his delivery Tong is in the midst of, and the extent of the reactions of his pitches to it. He doesn't even know how they will react yet.  

He is smart and dogged and he should be given enormous credit for changing his arm angle, something I had called for from the day I first saw him pitch.  By sometime next year, the trio of Scott, McLean and Tong will be the three number twos in the Mets starting rotation.  

The rotation needs veteran presence and Skubal would provide that at the top of the rotation.  If he is offered and signs an extension Holmes would provide the veteran presence in the middle of the rotation. The key point is that the young dudes need to be nested in a pitching staff anchored by veteran presence.

The back of the bullpen is strong but would be better still if another arm, preferably a power arm, is added to it.  If Ross throws more strikes, he can fit into that roll nicely. Williams is best when the pitcher that precedes him throws either left handed or with heat to burn, making his airbender even more dazzling by keeping hitters off balance.

And now for the holes that remain and meshing the players together as a unit

The Mets need a power bat. Period. There isn't a power bat among the youngsters who I have identified. Soto is good for 30, and Lindor 20+.  Semien, Benge, Bichette and Polanco all 15+.  Even on a team built on good speed, better contact and smarts, it really would help to have someone else who is good for 25+ homers (and isn't otherwise a black hole strike out waiting to happen).  

In case you've missed it, Alvarez is a black hole, as is Vientos. Both have suffered from extreme power outages. Baty has been given every chance and he is a better all around player than both of the other two, but he is no threat to hit it out of the park on a regular basis.

In my book we have two positions wide open for next year that we need to fill, and as many as four the year after.  Next year, 1B and catcher;  Year after, add DH and 3B if Bichette leaves as I expect he will.  

Can someone we find to fill those gaps also provide the necessary power boost?

How well our young players do overall next year and beyond depends a great deal on the make-up of the rest of the team.  The less pressure on them the better.  And this is where the pocket book and good judgment come into play.  Even more than you might think, because to be perfectly honest, there are no obvious solutions in the system at 1B, catcher, DH or 3B that are genuine power bats and just a stone's throw away from being major league ready.  So if we want the best from this group in the youth movement, we are going to have to supplement them with first rate talent at the holes that need filling. Hence the need for a massive pocket book.

And we should be focusing the deadline trades on building the next wave of youth in positions where we face likely gaps.  More on that next time, along with a few suggestions about where those gaps are likely to arise.