Milwaukee’s success raises an obvious question for Mets fans:
How much of what we see today was built by David Stearns?
My assessment is that Stearns left a substantial foundation for sustained success. Matt Arnold and the organization continued developing it, made important additions and produced results that deserve their own credit.
Understanding that distinction matters. If we want Milwaukee’s experience to help us evaluate the Mets, we need to identify what Stearns actually contributed, what he inherited and what happened after he stepped aside.
Start with the right handoff date
Stearns relinquished control of baseball operations on October 27, 2022. Arnold took over, while Stearns remained in an advisory role. mlb.com
That makes the end of the 2022 season our primary handoff point. His continued presence in the organization during 2023 should not cause us to assign that year’s decisions automatically to him.
There is another complication: Arnold had worked alongside Stearns since 2015. This was a leadership transition within an established organization. mlb.com
We can reasonably identify who held final responsibility for a decision. We usually cannot determine how much each scout, coach, analyst or executive contributed to it.
What did the results show?
The three-year comparisons provide a useful starting point:
Totals calculated from annual results. The shortened 2020 season makes winning percentage more useful than raw win totals. The final two rows overlap and are not independent comparisons. The 2026 World Series remains ahead as of this writing. StatMuse
The record supports two conclusions.
First, Milwaukee became a recurring contender during Stearns’ tenure. Second, the organization continued improving after the leadership transition.
Those later results are consistent with a strong inheritance and effective subsequent management. The standings alone cannot tell us how to divide the credit.
The inheritance included players at different stages
The organization Stearns left contained established major leaguers, developing players and prospects whose best seasons were still ahead.
That mix is central to the story. A successor inherits more than the opening-day lineup.
Acquisition history: FanGraphs RosterResource and MLB transaction reporting. FanGraphs Baseball
These examples make the Stearns connection tangible. Several players central to our current roster analysis entered the organization while he was in charge.
They also demonstrate why acquisition credit should not become exclusive credit. Selecting Misiorowski in 2022 and turning him into a major league contributor involved work across both leadership periods.
Chourio presents the same distinction. The initial signing belonged to one period; his continued development, major league opportunity and long-term contract extended into another.
Stearns also inherited important talent
A fair assessment must apply the same standard backward.
Brandon Woodruff was drafted in 2014. Devin Williams was drafted in 2013. Both entered Milwaukee’s system before Stearns arrived. Baseball-Reference.com
Josh Hader also arrived before Stearns, through Milwaukee’s 2015 deadline trade with Houston. mlb.com
Their subsequent development and use became part of the Stearns-era success. Their original acquisition belongs to the preceding administration.
That does not diminish Stearns’ contribution. Developing and retaining inherited talent is an essential part of running a baseball organization. It does establish that Milwaukee’s success spans more than one executive’s tenure.
The same principle applies to Arnold today.
The Hader transaction connects three administrations
The Hader sequence is particularly useful because it shows how value can travel through an organization.
Milwaukee acquired Hader before Stearns. Stearns later traded him in a package that included Gasser and Ruiz. After Arnold assumed control, Ruiz became the outgoing asset in the transaction bringing William Contreras and two pitchers. mlb.com
The credit therefore has several components:
Calling Contreras simply a “Stearns acquisition” would obscure Arnold’s decision. Treating the transaction as unrelated to Stearns would ignore the asset Arnold used.
This is also where hindsight requires restraint. The eventual return does not settle every question about the timing of the Hader trade or its immediate effect on a contending team.
Milwaukee finished 2022 outside the playoffs. That outcome belongs in the evaluation alongside the later benefits.
Arnold’s contribution goes beyond managing inherited players
The current roster contains meaningful acquisitions made after the handoff.
Bauers and Trevor Megill arrived in 2023. Joey Ortiz arrived in the 2024 Burnes trade. Chourio’s extension was another consequential decision made after Stearns stepped aside. FanGraphs Baseball
The prospect system has continued changing as well. Jesús Made and Luis Peña signed in January 2024. mlb.com
Their presence matters to our assessment. The next generation includes talent acquired after Stearns’ departure, alongside prospects inherited from his tenure.
Organizational continuity can help explain that success. It cannot justify assigning every subsequent good decision to the former leader. Arnold’s staff still had to evaluate players, allocate resources, manage setbacks and make choices.
What can we reasonably conclude?
The evidence supports a strong, qualified judgment:
Stearns helped build an organization capable of sustaining contention beyond his own tenure.
His contribution is visible in players acquired under his leadership, assets available to his successor and the competitive position at the handoff.
The record also shows that Milwaukee continued progressing under Arnold. The successor’s work added value to what was inherited.
There is no defensible basis here for assigning Stearns a precise percentage of the current team’s success. Acquisition dates can be counted. Coaching, development, judgment and organizational continuity cannot be divided that neatly.
For Mets fans, the useful question is whether Stearns can create similar advantages in New York: productive acquisitions, a continuing supply of young talent, useful trade assets and enough depth to keep the club competitive through change.
Cohen’s resources give him additional options. Those resources still need to translate into production and sustained results.
Our next installment will compare Milwaukee and the Mets as they stand today:
The quality of their players, the depth behind them, the cost of the roster and the years of control still available.
That comparison will help us assess how far New York has progressed toward the kind of organizational strength Milwaukee has demonstrated.
9 comments:
I am now reduced to being a fan with a blog
I want Stearns to move on after his contract ends
2027 is Stearns’ major test: Will he blow it and lose his job?
Stearns contract runs through the 2028 season
I expect Cohen to honor it
Any analyzing of what he has done is probably a moot point but it's enjoyable to find someone on this blog putting in the work here
Stability is an important factor for successful organizations. Stearn's is the right person for the job. The future appears bright.
Tom,
Off subject, but the Mets have two players make the AFL all star team. Irving Cota, P, and Ryan Lambert, P, were both selected. Lambert has been a relief pitcher who has been followed on this blog as a possible relief pitcher in 2027.
I find the analysis interesting from a broader systems perspective. Whether it’s Stearns or ultimately someone else, this shows how great organizations develop & produce sustainable outcomes. As a diehard Mets fan, this shows how I want the Mets to ultimately operate so I can enjoy baseball seasons on a regular basis & avoid the travesties of the past 20 seasons
D J, Lambert is the more exciting of the two. He was awful in 2026, but has been superb in Az. That is exciting. COTA will take longer, Lambert could have real potential to help the Mets in 2027. Always wild, but Arizona seems to show him harnessing it.
Excellent research and summarization. It is very hard to differentiate between the contributions of employees within a high-performing organization because the product is greater than the sum of the individual talents. What can definitely be attributed to Stearns is that he created this high performing organization, the culture that underpinned it, and the employee development that included the evolution of Arnold into an equally effective leader.
Agreed. That is the mark of a true leader (I suspect that is what cohen really saw in him. This last two years have been very brutal but hopefully the Mets are past that crap & the organization can settle in & develop the talent.
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