Paul Articulates - Mets Musings

The all-star break came at a time when the Mets were hot, and the team was re-inventing everyone’s predictions about what will happen this season.  The break ended, and seemingly so did the hot streak as the Mets have now dropped 2 of 3 to the Marlins.   They have scored only 7 runs in those three games.  That is a far cry from the prolific offense that was demonstrated prior to the break.

That’s how it goes in baseball…sometimes the hits cascade and sometimes the ball just goes in the wrong direction.  Saturday’s 1-0 win could easily have been 7-0 as the Mets hitters were barreling many balls but hitting them right at the defense.  

Sunday’s game was not so much unlucky as it was unfortunate.  Poor Christian Scott has pitched very well every time he takes the mound for the team, and he has an 0-3 record.  It seems that he falls victim to “that one mistake” that costs him a multiple run homer in games that his team is not scoring as much.  That will change.  

I love what I am seeing from Scott, who as a rookie pitcher has shown control and poise in his outings.  His 1.20 WHIP is third best among all Met starting pitchers this year.  Only Luis Severino (1.18) and Jose Butto (1.05) have better, and Butto’s numbers have improved significantly since he has mastered the art of relief pitching.

Speaking of Butto, the Mets have experimented twice this year with converting starters to relievers and both have had tremendous success.  Adrian Houser was heading towards a DFA when he proved that he could give capable innings in long relief.  

Jose Butto was an up and down starter who has really put some impressive innings together in relief.  So I have to ask, why not give others a try?  There have been several articles posted on this site and others elsewhere that have implored the Mets leadership to put Tylor Megill and/or David Peterson in the pen.  Neither has taken on that role, and with the pending return of Kodai Senga which will require a six man rotation, I don’t see much of a chance that they do.  

Down in Syracuse there are a couple of high profile starting pitchers that are struggling this year – namely Mike Vasil and Dom Hamel – who might find at least a temporary niche as Mets relievers.

On the offensive side, everyone is enjoying Jose Iglesias’ hitting streak.  OMG he is batting .380 in July!  This is just so much fun to watch, but of course it is not going to last all season.  He is not the reincarnation of Ted Williams, he is just a guy that is having a couple of months that he gets to talk about for the rest of his life.  He has made baseball fun for this team as well, and that removes the pressure of trying to win every day.  If you are having fun, you are loose, and your instincts prevail which has a lot to do with the Mets’ run.

Another guy on a great run and it doesn’t seem temporary is Mark Vientos.  He is hitting .300 in July with a .821 OPS.  He hit .267 with a .887 OPS in June.  He hit .318 with a .918 OPS in May.  Before that he was in Syracuse!  Don’t send him back there – this guy has earned his time on the big club.

Vientos has a hard hit rate of 44.3 – which means that almost half the time he puts the ball in play it comes off his bat at 95mph or better.  So who does it better than that?  Pete Alonso maybe?  No, he is actually just behind Mark at 41.2%.  The team leader is Brandon Nimmo with an impressive 50.8% hard hit rate.  That is one reason he is leading the team with 63 RBI right now.  

As Iglesias would say, OMG!  Nimmo had a tough start to this season and everyone lamented the long term extension he signed.  Well, it was justified because just as before the extension, Nimmo finds a way to get better at something every year.  I am looking forward to the day he decides to get better at stealing bases!

That’s my Mets musings for the day – hope it made your Monday morning just a little bit better.  Let’s go Mets!

Paul Articulates – A wonderful dilemma

Mets fans know that things don’t always go right.  Even good news is often followed by bad news.  So when the word started getting louder that the Mets had a ton of pitching talent in their minor league system, many just expected the other shoe to drop.  Well, it hasn’t.  We are in day 37 of a 41 day camp, and the Mets’ pitching has been just great.  Yes, Kodai Senga went down early with an injury, but when you look at the battle for the slots from the back end of the rotation through the middle relievers through the AAA and AA pitching staffs, there are a ton of guys that can fill a role.  This is a wealth of arm talent that only comes around once in a while.

Let’s take a look at the difficult choices that the front office, Carlos Mendoza, and Jeremy Heffner will be facing soon.  It was announced yesterday that Quintana, Severino, Manaea, Houser, and Megill get the rotation spots.  That leaves Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi, an injured David Peterson, Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel, Christian Scott, Tyler Stuart, David Griffin, Blade Tidwell, and Joander Suarez in the battle for “next up”.  The great news is that except for the recovering Peterson, all reports are that these guys are pitching well.  Many have cited a new pitch or a mechanic they have been working on to improve consistency or movement.

 So how do you manage those choices?  I am sure that the organization will start with the progress that was being made last year.  If Butto and Lucchesi don’t make the MLB roster as middle relief and/or spot starters, then expect them to be SP1 and SP2 in Syracuse with the AAA Mets.  

The next group is doing their best to shine up their resume for the other slots.  Here’s some brief information on my favorites, along with some personal interviews during spring training by the media team of Jacob Wilkins and Matt Levine from the Binghamton Rumble Ponies who shared these moments with us.

Mike Vasil pitched with both Binghamton and Syracuse last year.  The 11th rated Mets prospect started 26 games in 2023 with a combined ERA of 4.65 with 138 strikeouts in 122 innings and a 1.22 WHIP.  The 6’5” 225 lb twenty-four year old throws a mid-90’s fastball mixed in with a mid-80’s slider plus a curveball and a change.  He gets a lot of swing and miss, and his WHIP would probably be higher if not for the adjustment to the ABS (robo-ump) system he had to make in AAA ball.  Vasil felt that he benefitted greatly from his Syracuse experience last year and although he may start the season there again in 2024, he is widely expected to get a call-up by mid-season. 

 Mike Vasil Spring Training Interview.mp4

Christian Scott was named pitcher of the year in the Mets’ minor system last year for good reason.  He pitched at St. Lucie, Brooklyn, and Binghamton last year with a combined ERA of 2.57 over 87 innings where he fanned 107 and compiled an eye-popping 0.86 WHIP.  Scott is another 24 year old pitcher with size, strength, and an incredible ability to manage the strike zone.  Last year he had an 8.9 K/BB ratio which led all minor leaguers (at least 80 innings pitched) and was fourth with a 3.6% walk rate.  His mid-to-upper 90’s fastball coupled with a splitter/change and a tight mid-80’s slider keeps batters guessing.  As the fifth rated Mets prospect I would also expect to see him start the season in Syracuse and have a chance for a call-up if he continues to pitch as well.

 Christian Scott Spring Training Interview.mp4

Dom Hamel ranks as the #14 prospect in the Mets system.  He was chosen to start the Spring Breakout game which shows the respect he has in the organization.  Hamel pitched for the Dominican Republic team in the World Baseball Classic before the 2023 season and gained tremendous confidence there playing alongside major leaguers.  His 2023 season in AA started out rough, but he came on in the second half of the season and pitched very well for the Rumble Ponies in the late season and the playoffs.  He features a low-to-mid 90’s four seam fastball that has great carry up in the zone and complements it with a late biting slider with spin rates up to 3000 RPM.  He also has the ability to use a curve, a changeup, and a cutter. 

 Dom Hamel Spring Training Interview.mp4

Tyler Stuart is an imposing 6’9” 250 lb righty that dominated high-A pitchers last year with a 1.55 ERA before being called up to the AA Rumble Ponies.  Stuart ranks as the 18th Mets prospect and threw a very impressive low pitch count inning in the Spring Breakout game.  His sinking low-90’s fastball complements his excellent slider with its two-plane break.  He had a low walk rate in both A and AA levels, and seems to be continuing that trend with his spring training outings.  I expect to see him start the season at AA but will likely finish the season higher.

 Tyler Stuart Spring Training Interview.mp4

Blade Tidwell had an impressive run last year, throwing a combined 116 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones and the Binghamton Rumble Ponies that included a playoff start.  The 22-year old Tidwell is the 10th rated prospect with some impressive pitches.  He gets 18 inches of vertical break on his four-seam fastball and up to 20 inches of horizontal break on a sweeper.  That fastball has been clocked as high as 98 MPH so good luck if you have a bat in your hands when Tidwell is on the mound.  With improved consistency in locating his pitches, Tidwell is going to have great success.  I think his greatest attribute is his competitiveness, which shows out when he has runners in scoring position - he has a way of turning it up a notch to get out of a jam.

 Blade Tidwell Spring Training Interivew.mp4

I will be intently watching as this battle of arms plays out in the coming season.  All of these guys are poised to make their mark and I look forward to see who gets there first.  They need to move fast because there is another wave coming that is currently in the lower minors.