Paul Articulates – A wonderful dilemma

Mets fans know that things don’t always go right.  Even good news is often followed by bad news.  So when the word started getting louder that the Mets had a ton of pitching talent in their minor league system, many just expected the other shoe to drop.  Well, it hasn’t.  We are in day 37 of a 41 day camp, and the Mets’ pitching has been just great.  Yes, Kodai Senga went down early with an injury, but when you look at the battle for the slots from the back end of the rotation through the middle relievers through the AAA and AA pitching staffs, there are a ton of guys that can fill a role.  This is a wealth of arm talent that only comes around once in a while.

Let’s take a look at the difficult choices that the front office, Carlos Mendoza, and Jeremy Heffner will be facing soon.  It was announced yesterday that Quintana, Severino, Manaea, Houser, and Megill get the rotation spots.  That leaves Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi, an injured David Peterson, Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel, Christian Scott, Tyler Stuart, David Griffin, Blade Tidwell, and Joander Suarez in the battle for “next up”.  The great news is that except for the recovering Peterson, all reports are that these guys are pitching well.  Many have cited a new pitch or a mechanic they have been working on to improve consistency or movement.

 So how do you manage those choices?  I am sure that the organization will start with the progress that was being made last year.  If Butto and Lucchesi don’t make the MLB roster as middle relief and/or spot starters, then expect them to be SP1 and SP2 in Syracuse with the AAA Mets.  

The next group is doing their best to shine up their resume for the other slots.  Here’s some brief information on my favorites, along with some personal interviews during spring training by the media team of Jacob Wilkins and Matt Levine from the Binghamton Rumble Ponies who shared these moments with us.

Mike Vasil pitched with both Binghamton and Syracuse last year.  The 11th rated Mets prospect started 26 games in 2023 with a combined ERA of 4.65 with 138 strikeouts in 122 innings and a 1.22 WHIP.  The 6’5” 225 lb twenty-four year old throws a mid-90’s fastball mixed in with a mid-80’s slider plus a curveball and a change.  He gets a lot of swing and miss, and his WHIP would probably be higher if not for the adjustment to the ABS (robo-ump) system he had to make in AAA ball.  Vasil felt that he benefitted greatly from his Syracuse experience last year and although he may start the season there again in 2024, he is widely expected to get a call-up by mid-season. 

 Mike Vasil Spring Training Interview.mp4

Christian Scott was named pitcher of the year in the Mets’ minor system last year for good reason.  He pitched at St. Lucie, Brooklyn, and Binghamton last year with a combined ERA of 2.57 over 87 innings where he fanned 107 and compiled an eye-popping 0.86 WHIP.  Scott is another 24 year old pitcher with size, strength, and an incredible ability to manage the strike zone.  Last year he had an 8.9 K/BB ratio which led all minor leaguers (at least 80 innings pitched) and was fourth with a 3.6% walk rate.  His mid-to-upper 90’s fastball coupled with a splitter/change and a tight mid-80’s slider keeps batters guessing.  As the fifth rated Mets prospect I would also expect to see him start the season in Syracuse and have a chance for a call-up if he continues to pitch as well.

 Christian Scott Spring Training Interview.mp4

Dom Hamel ranks as the #14 prospect in the Mets system.  He was chosen to start the Spring Breakout game which shows the respect he has in the organization.  Hamel pitched for the Dominican Republic team in the World Baseball Classic before the 2023 season and gained tremendous confidence there playing alongside major leaguers.  His 2023 season in AA started out rough, but he came on in the second half of the season and pitched very well for the Rumble Ponies in the late season and the playoffs.  He features a low-to-mid 90’s four seam fastball that has great carry up in the zone and complements it with a late biting slider with spin rates up to 3000 RPM.  He also has the ability to use a curve, a changeup, and a cutter. 

 Dom Hamel Spring Training Interview.mp4

Tyler Stuart is an imposing 6’9” 250 lb righty that dominated high-A pitchers last year with a 1.55 ERA before being called up to the AA Rumble Ponies.  Stuart ranks as the 18th Mets prospect and threw a very impressive low pitch count inning in the Spring Breakout game.  His sinking low-90’s fastball complements his excellent slider with its two-plane break.  He had a low walk rate in both A and AA levels, and seems to be continuing that trend with his spring training outings.  I expect to see him start the season at AA but will likely finish the season higher.

 Tyler Stuart Spring Training Interview.mp4

Blade Tidwell had an impressive run last year, throwing a combined 116 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones and the Binghamton Rumble Ponies that included a playoff start.  The 22-year old Tidwell is the 10th rated prospect with some impressive pitches.  He gets 18 inches of vertical break on his four-seam fastball and up to 20 inches of horizontal break on a sweeper.  That fastball has been clocked as high as 98 MPH so good luck if you have a bat in your hands when Tidwell is on the mound.  With improved consistency in locating his pitches, Tidwell is going to have great success.  I think his greatest attribute is his competitiveness, which shows out when he has runners in scoring position - he has a way of turning it up a notch to get out of a jam.

 Blade Tidwell Spring Training Interivew.mp4

I will be intently watching as this battle of arms plays out in the coming season.  All of these guys are poised to make their mark and I look forward to see who gets there first.  They need to move fast because there is another wave coming that is currently in the lower minors.

Paul Articulates – A closer look at Mike Vasil

As we steadily approach the February 14th date when pitchers and catchers first report to spring training in St. Lucie, it is time to look at some of the more intriguing prospects that will be trying to make their case for cracking the major league roster.  So much has been said in Mack’s Mets about the starting pitching staff, the bullpen, and the solid group of prospect pitchers coming up through the high minors.  No better place than the pitching to take a closer look at #9 on the NY Mets prospect list, Mike Vasil.

Mike Vasil pitched at Boston College Prep in Dorchester, MA and was very highly touted during his senior year.  How high you ask?  70 major league scouts attended one of his high school starts.  Not being one to disappoint, Vasil threw a perfect game that day. In his high school career, Mike went 22-4 with a 1.06 earned run average and recorded 217 strikeouts in 191 innings.  Everyone expected him to be a high draft pick.  However, after having some arm trouble he decided to forego the draft an attend college at the University of Virginia.

The beginning of his career at UVA was somewhat of a struggle, but by his junior year, Vasil had begun to show much of what the scouts had been excited about.  He had a solid year in 2021, and particularly impressed in a college world series outing against Texas where he struck out eight in seven innings while only giving up one run.  That year he was drafted in the eighth round (8.232) by the Mets and assigned to the Florida Complex League (FCL) where he posted a 1.29 ERA.

In 2022, his first full year with the Mets’ franchise, Vasil move quickly through the ranks, playing for the FCL Mets, the St. Lucie Mets (low A), and the Brooklyn Cyclones (high A).  That year he pitched 124 innings, recorded 138 strikeouts, and compiled a 4.65 ERA across the three clubs.  In 2023 he started the year with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (51 IP, 57K, 3.71 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and moved on to the Syracuse Mets (AAA) by mid-season.  There, he threw another 73 innings, posting a 5.30 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 81 strikeouts.

One might look at the ERA numbers and question whether this is a dominant pitcher, but that has to be taken into context.  In just over two years in the Mets’ organization, Vasil has moved through four different levels of ball to the highest level in the minor league system.  His mid-90’s four-seam fastball with high RPM has good rise and he can also throw the curveball, slider, and changeup as solid secondary pitches.  His control has always been a strong point, and the Mets’ staff has encouraged him to be a little more aggressive with hitters instead of trying to nibble at the corners.  MLB.com gives him the following grades for his pitches: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50.

My expectation this year is for Mike Vasil to continue his upward trajectory.  He continues to work with the player development staff to improve his pitches, and the state of the art pitching lab in St. Lucie should provide him with valuable feedback.  Mike Steffanos wrote yesterday about this.  Vasil will compete for a slot on the MLB team this spring, but my projection is that he will begin the season in AAA and then see action in New York later in the season.  I would love to see him come up as a long reliever to get his feet under him rather than being thrown to the wolves as a starter.  With so much uncertainty around the ability of the current Mets’ starting rotation to limit runs, there should be many opportunities to get the young pitchers like Vasil some 2-3 inning stretches against MLB hitters to facilitate their transition.