MMs Top 25: #9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa

#9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa (LR: #9)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 160 lb

Age: 22
Acquired: 2009 International Signing, $150,000? Bonus, La Vega, Dominican Republic

2014: (A+/AA) 11-4, 4.07 ERA, 148.0 IP, 6.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.311 WHIP
2013: (A) 15-4, 2.72 ERA, 135.2 IP, 7.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.025 WHIP
2012: (SS-A) 5-2, 2.23 ERA, 76.2 IP, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.926 WHIP
2011: (Rk) 2-3, 3.21 ERA, 56.0 IP, 4.3 K/9, 0.6 BB/9, 1.089 WHIP
2010: (DsL) 5-3, 1.99 ERA, 72.1 IP, 4.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 0.982 WHIP

     
     When evaluating prospects, there are three ways to project their future usefulness. You could make your ceiling projections based on the tools that you view and the flashes of brilliance that he may show. If you don't see those plus tools, does that mean you write him off? No not at all...Sometimes guys produce results that force you to change your style of thinking. Gabriel Ynoa was one of the those guys over the past few years. 

     Year after year, Ynoa has consistently been one of the most control oriented minor league arms in the entirety of minor league baseball. In 5 minor league seasons, 488 innings pitched, 1,979 batters face, he has only walked 63 or 3.2%. That is an absurdly low number, one that can skyrocket you through the lower levels of the minor league system. However, sometimes, it doesn't pay to throw so many strikes. Especially when you reach the upper levels of AA and AAA. Ynoa found this out the hard way when he was promoted to AA Binghamton last season. AA and AAA batters are more selective, have a better knowledge of the strike zone, and aren't "caught looking" as frequently as A ball and Rk league hitters.

     Once in Binghamton, Ynoa saw he already average K rate plummet from 7.0 to a below average 5.7 per 9 innings. Instead of K's, Ynoa was giving up more hits as his H per 9 innings rate jumped from 8.2 to 10.1. This is not a good sign nor is it a sign of future success at the MLB level. Last season only 2 SP had K rates below 6.0 and were able to produce ERA's below 3.00, Henderson Alvarez and Doug Fister. Both are considered to have "over-achieved" when you look at their historical numbers. Now this doesn't mean that Ynoa is destined to be a career minor leaguer. This is one case of a Met SP who has had a lengthy career as a low K, low BB, "let my defense do the work", his name is Bartolo Colon. Ynoa has much better stuff than Colon and if Colon can do it....then Ynoa certainly can as well.

     Luckily for Ynoa, he still has some projection to him. At 6' 2" and 160 lbs, Ynoa still has room to add bulk and velocity to his 91-93 mph fastball. Doing so, when combined with his superb control and advanced change-up, could make Ynoa the next top right hander to come out of the farm. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo and Baseball Prospectus' Chris Mellen both seem to agree that Ynoa is destined to be a Top 100 prospect as well. Before we anointed him as the successor to the Syndergaard's top right handed prospect throne, he needs to conquer AA first. Something I do not forsee him having trouble with a second time around.

Ceiling: #3 MLB SP (Tim Hudson)
Floor: MLB Flex RP 
Anticipated Assignment: (AA) Binghamton Starting Rotation.

The Morning Report – 2-17-15: Jerry Seinfeld, Dillon Gee, Harvey talks World Series, Gabriel Ynoa, Bovada

Jerry Seinfeld | Twitter

Nelson Figueroa is taking over for Bobby Ojeda as analyst on pregame and postgame show. #mets "Booooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!"
— Jerry Seinfeld (@JerrySeinfeld) February 16, 2015

(Chris Soto: I know he's one of the higher profile celebrities that loves the team....but jeez....give the guy a chance before you start booing him. Speaking of which.....Give the guy a follow on Twitter!

Just setting up my Twitter. #myfirstTweet
— Nelson Figueroa Jr. (@FigSNY) February 16, 2015

Josh Chapdelaine | Around Citi - "Former minor leaguer Sergio Miranda filed a formal complaint against the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball. Miranda, along with his fellow plaintiffs, All worked in excess of 50 hours per week from March-September and earned less than $10,000 for their efforts. Individuals that earn less than $11,770 annually fall below the poverty line, according to U.S. standards. On May 29, 1922, the Supreme Court ruled Major League Baseball was not subject to the Sherman Antitrust Act, thereby allowing clubs to maintain player’s salary rights. For every multi-million dollar agreement a top prospect earns, most players receive fractions for the opportunity to play professionally. The process starts early, when minor leaguers arrive early to Spring Training to try to get ahead.“You don’t get paid the whole time.” former Mets farmhand Alonzo Harris told Around Citi. Though minor league players are given room and board, most do not receive a paycheck."

(Chris Soto: This was one of the very few things Commissioner Selig did not do well during his tenure. I hope Commissioner Manfred see how unfairly the average minor leaguer is treated in terms of salary and rectifies it.)


Associated Press Sports | Yahoo - "Mets general manager Sandy Alderson has been open about the possibility he might trade a starting pitcher. ''I wouldn't say it was awkward at all,'' Gee said Monday, five days ahead of New York's first formal workout. ''I think we all know that at some point something like that might happen. Guys switch teams, that's just part of the game. It was kind of weird to see my name floating around a lot, but at the same time it doesn't change my offseason at all. I'm trying to get better every day and make sure I'm ready for the 2015 season, no matter where that is. I want to be here. This is kind of all I've known so far. But what happens is going to happen. If there isn't a trade, Gee could get shifted to the bullpen. He made three relief appearances in 2011, his first full season in the major leagues. ''That's not what I want to do,'' Gee said, ''but I'm going to do the best I can in whatever role I'm given.'' 

(Chris Soto: I feel bad for Gee. He knows he's not wanted and he knows he has no role with the Mets right now. One can only hope that someone, on a different team of course, sustains an unfortunate injury and it opens the door for Gee to contribute somewhere else.)


Andy Martino | NYDailyNews.com -“ the cold weather boasting actually went up another notch on Saturday night, when (Matt) Harvey told the Daily News that it was “very realistic” to think that these Metsies could win a World Series.” He goes on to say “Harvey is just being Harvey, bringing his special swagger to everything he does and says. “I think it’s very realistic,I think we’re looking forward to it and we’re gonna do everything we can.” Martino’s take on all this is summed up this way - “The talk is fine. All of the Mets people who have spoken this winter have their own compelling reason to do so. Alderson has been rightly itchy for some time to change a Citi Field culture that sometimes seems to accept mediocrity. 

(Herb G. I think it’s just great that the Mets are standing tall and talking big. It’s the kind of confidence I want to see in my team, and should be the carrot that motivates each player to strive to meet the lofty goals they have set for themselves. While the World Series may be a lot to hope for, if things break right for these Mets, they certainly could win a wild card spot, and from that point, who knows? And if they get off to a slow start, I for one, will continue to believe. It wouldn’t be the first time a Mets team came from way back to snag the prize.)


Jonathan Mayo / mlb.com - "There are other pitchers with better pure stuff than Ynoa, there's no question of that. He does have plenty of fastball, sitting in the low-90s and touching 95 mph, but that's not up where upper-echelon pitching prospects live. Ynoa has an excellent changeup and a slider that's OK, but nothing like the exploding breaking stuff you might see from the guys at the top of the Top 100. What Ynoa can do is throw strikes. He walked 1.5 per nine innings across two levels, reaching Double-A, in 2014. And that was a career high. . . . In his Minor League career, Ynoa has issued 63 walks in 86 total games. Everyone realizes how insane that is, right?"

(Herb G. I love a pitcher who can throw strikes consistently, and for that reason, I have had my eye on Ynoa since he came out of the DOSL 5 years ago as a 17 year old with a 1.99 ERA, a 0.982 WHIP, and 1.0 BB/9 in 72.1 IP. Although he has stayed close to that level of excellence over the following 3 years as he moved up the ladder, his ERA "ballooned" this year to just over 4.00 and his WHIP was a tad above 1.3 over two levels, while reaching AA and facing hitters 2 - 4 years older than himself. If he has the season that Mayo envisions for him, we could see Ynoa challenging for a spot in an already stacked Mets rotation in 2016.)

• Bovada Sports Online Betting has set the over/unders for 2015 win totals for each MLB team yesterday. The Mets came in at 81.5 wins. The gambling sharks feel that the Phillies are the worst team in baseball at +/- 68.5 wins and that the Dodgers and Nationals are tied for the best at +/- 92.5 wins. For what it's worth, they also have the Marlins at +/-81.5 wins. 

MMs Top 25: #9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa

#9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa (LR: #6)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6′ 2″ Weight: 158 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2009 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2014: (A+/AA) 11-4, 4.27 ERA, 141.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.344 WHIP
2013: (A) 15-4, 2.72 ERA, 135.2 IP, 7.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.025 WHIP
2012: (SS-A) 5-2, 2.23 ERA, 76.2 IP, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.926 WHIP
2011: (R) 2-3, 3.21 ERA, 56.0 IP, 4.3 K/9, 0.6 BB/9, 1.089 WHIP
 
     I said it in 2012, in 2013, and again this pre-season. Just to cover my butt though, I'll say it again...I may be guilty of over-ranking Ynoa. This kid has done nothing but throw quality start after quality start and rack up win after win. Last season, if you include the playoffs, he racked up 17 wins which is something some minor leaguers can't accomplish in 2-3 years worth of starts. He's conquered the NY-Penn League, the South Atlantic League, and most recently the Florida State League with relative ease. The real test has begun though for Ynoa, conquering the prospect wall that is the AA Eastern League.

     So far, in his 1st 10 starts, Ynoa has shown a mixed bag of results as he adjusts to the tougher league. He's shown some positives such as his July 9th performance against Portland (7 IP, 9 K, 0 ER) , as well as some negatives (4 IP, 6 ER against Bowie). So far, the main problem has been the long ball as he's given up 9 HRs in those 10 starts as he is quickly learning that guys are stronger in AA. He'll likes to work up in the zone so he'll have to make the adjustment to try to even out his, currently high, fly-ball to ground-ball ratio.

     Ynoa is currently cranking his fastball at around 92-94 MPH with good natural movement. He plays the pitch up even higher thanks to his impeccable control. His change-up is already MLB average and has the potential to be a plus pitch thanks to it's excellent 2-plane movement both down and away from right-handers. He's also made improvements to the spin on his slider and scouts now believe it can at least be an MLB average 3rd pitch. He also has a curveball, but, scouts are not as high on it as his slider so he's better served keeping as a "show-me" back door pitch.

     Ynoa still has a ton of room in his frame to fill out on his lanky 6'2" 158 lb frame, so, additional velocity projection is still here. If he can add just 2 or 3 more ticks to that fastball, while maintaining it's movement, combining that with his advanced change-up will make him a very strong bet to reach his potential. The celing may not be super high, but, the risk is low. He'll be an MLB starter, its just a question of where.

Ceiling: Solid 12-15 win, 180+ IP per year #3 MLB pitcher (Kyle Lohse)
Floor: Decent #5 MLB SP (Erik Stults)

MM's Top 25- #6 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa

#6 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa (LR: #11)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6′ 2″ Weight: 158 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2009 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2013: (A) 15-4, 2.72 ERA, 1.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.025 WHIP
2012: (SS-A) 5-2, 2.23 ERA, 1.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.926 WHIP
2011: (R) 2-3, 3.21 ERA, 0.6 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.089 WHIP

I'll admit that I may be over-ranking Ynoa here but the facts don't lie. This kid has been extremely impressive over the past 2 seasons both dominating the NY-Penn League and the South Atlantic League with relative ease. Scouts have found substantial similarity between him and Rafael Montero. Both have impeccable control and while neither has a true plus pitch, they both have 3 pitches that have the potential to be MLB above average quality.

Where Ynoa is different starts and ends with his arm slot. He throws from a slightly lower than normal 3/4 arm slot which gives his 92-93 MPH fastball good natural movement which is surprising given he is still able to command it well. He also possesses an advanced change-up which again, thanks to the 3/4 arm slot, has excellent 2-plane movement both down and away from right handers. So far that two pitch combo has just been too much to handle for both lower level hitters and even older guys (.234 BAA)

Ynoa has a third pitch as well with his low 80's slider, but the low arm slot makes it tough to stay on top of the pitch which is limiting it to a one-plane, horizontal moving pitch only. He's been working on a curveball to replace it but so far the spiral on it is just not tight enough and his has more of a loopy movement on it. But at just 21 years of age, Ynoa has plenty of time to refine his breaking pitch into a MLB quality one.

Ynoa still has a ton of room in his frame to fill out and add more velocity, so additional projectability is still here. If he can crank the fastball up to the mid 90's with that advanced change-up of his he'll be a sure bet to crack an MLB rotation if he can develop at least an average breaking pitch. Look for him to start in the PSL but make a detour to Binghamton about half way through the season.

Anticipated Assignment: (A+) Port St. Lucie starting rotation.
Ceiling: #4/#5 MLB starter
Floor: AAA pitching king

More Stuff – Gabriel Ynoa, Noah Syndergaard, Juan Lagares, Tom Tango

Regarding losing draft picks due to free agent signings, when the Mets signed  P Francisco Rodriguez, they gave up their first round draft pick to the Los Angeles Angels, who used it to pick Mike Trout.

J.P. Schwartz

I decided to pick one prospect in each team’s farm system who I believe is poised to have a breakout season in the minors this year. New York Mets – Gabriel Ynoa (RHP). Great low-effort delivery, impressive control, finesse type of pitcher, with a #3-4 SP projection.

We don’t write very often about players whose only professional stats are in rookie leagues. Some are just getting some at bats or innings during the same year they just finished playing their last year in school. Anothor factor is just the free swinging wildness of the level. Pitchers tend to look better, but most of them disappear by the time they hit AA. In the case of Ynoa, who turns 20 in May, the IFA pitched one year  in the DR (5-3, 1.99), 2011 for GCL/K-Port (2-3, 3.21), and last season for the Cyclones (5-2, 2.23). He’ll move on to Savannah with his Brooklyn buddies, but we won’t know what we have here until 2015 when he is projected to pitch in Binghamton. By then, he might become major trade bait if Mr. Schwartz’s prediction for greatness is correct.

Jonathan Mayo –

His (Noah Syndergaard) power curve has improved as he’s added velocity to it and it could be an above-average breaking ball in the future. He has a power changeup as well, which is still a work in progress, but could give him a third above-average offering. Despite his size, he has an easy delivery and he throws strikes. His combination of stuff, pitchability and aggressiveness on the mound point to a possible future as a frontline starter.

You do realize that there now is a distinct possibility that the 2015 Mets will have three SP1s? And all this hype is coming from the guys that know what they are talking about. How would you like a rotation with Jon Niese and Rafael Montero on the ‘back end’?

Rob Castellano

OF Juan Lagares - After a 2011 campaign where the one-time highly-regarded, yet oft-injured IFA broke out to the tune of a .350 average, he regressed in 2012 by posting a .283 average in a repeat appearance at Double-A. Regardless, the athletic 23-year-old still possesses a number of skills/tools that could help the big club in 2013. Most notably, he can hit lefties. In 2012 he batted .333/.382/.477 against southpaws, and that was no aberration (.346/.377/.516 since 2011). Additionally, though not a natural center fielder, he has taken relatively well to the position and even offers good speed, something the Mets lack. Once again, with the current state of the outfield it's fair to expect we'll see Lagares at some point in 2013.

Here’s the problem with this whole Lagares play centerfield thing. He’s not going to do that in Las Vegas. Centerfield is Matt den Dekker’s job, both now in Nevada and the future, in Queens. I think Lagares has done a remarkable job of re-inventing himself, and, yes, he can hit lefties… in AA. Let’s give him a full season in Las Vegas and see what he can do there. He’s welcomed to right field.

Jon Greenberg had a fantastic interview with Tom Tango, the inventor of FIP. Here’s what Tango said about it:

FIP is great because it is such a simple construction, but it tells us so much about the pitcher. We don't have a problem with assigning different weights to each hit to come up with a slugging average for example. And that's what FIP is. FIP limits itself to looking at strikeouts, walks, and home runs, gives each a specific weight, and scales to ERA. I don't know that I'd tout other stats like that one, but the one thing that is most important is to make sure you understand the context of the stat. Don't just look at RBIs, look also at how many runners are on base. And not just how many runners, but where are they on the bases. And not just where, but how many outs, especially for runner on third. Once you realize there's so much bias in a player's RBI totals you learn to move away from it, and focus on the skills that lead to RBIs.

Stuff – Maikis De La Cruz, Cory Mazzoni, Gabriel Ynoa, Adrelin Rodriguez, Empire State Shooting

Maikis De La Cruz

I always wonder where some of these ‘kids’ come from. Take the case of Kingsport CF Maikis De La Cruz (.279). This is the second year De La Crus has been in the Mets system, hitting an impressive .321 last year for the DSL system, but here’s the rub. He’s playing K-Port this year at the age of 21-years old, meaning he was 20 last year. You can’t tell me someone just walks off the street and hits .321 in organized ball. Where did he play for the four years prior to this? Is he for real? Well, if he is, he better get moving because, at his rate, he’ll play AAA and pull a Medicare check the same year. Spring Projection: I’m placing him in Savannah for now. 

Cory Mazzoni

This might not be a bad time to shut Cory down. He gave up seve earned runs (3.0-IP) on Thursday, which now totals to 20 runs in his last five starts (28 innings). All this bad news still results in a seasonal AA ERA of 3.49 and a combined AA/A+ (23 starts) of 3.37. You know I loved this pick out of North Carolina State. Mazzoni is going to have to repeat this level next spring to hopefully earn himself an all-star break promotion to  the AAA affiliate in the PCL. Spring Projection:  Binghamton

Gabriel Ynoa

Is Gabriel Ynoa a ‘prospect’? Frankly, I’m not sure yet and he needs to turn in another year like he’s putting together for Brooklyn this year. Through Thursday, Ynoa has had 10 starts with a stat line of: 60.0-IP, 50-K, only 7-BB, 5-1, 2.40, 0.90. I love the average of 6.0 innings per start. This is very encouraging at this point in a young man’s career. He just turned 19 and we got our first peak at him in 2010 when he went 5-3, 1.99 for the DSL Mets as a 17-year old. Definitely on the ‘blue’ list. Spring Projection: Lots of rotation congestion, especially at the lower levels… Savannah. 

Aderlin Rodriguez

We keep revisiting A-Rod, hoping his defense improves and his power continues to develop. We have good news in both areas. Defensively, Aderlin currently has 28 errors in 2012 combined for Savannah and St. Lucie. That’s a vast improvement over the 44 errors he had in 2011 for Savannah. Rodriguez is never going to win the Golden Glove trophy, but who cares if he keeps hitting like he’s done so far this season: 443-AB, 24-HR, 81-AB, 95-K, 36-BB. Spring Projection: A-Rod spend parts of three seasons in Savannah and seems ready to move past St. Lucie. He’s still only 20-years old. I have him playing 3B in Binghamton, right behind Wilmer Flores (just turned 21) in Buffalo.

Empire State Shooting

Did anyone think that this might be the new way nuts jobs have come up with committing ‘suicide by cop’? I mean, running around Manhattan randomly shooting people should earn you one in the head, no?