Paul Articulates – Sideline Soto

Juan Soto returned from the injured list on Saturday and immediately fouled a ball off his shin, causing a moment of panic among Mets fans that he was going to go right back on to the IL.  After a few moments of pain suppression, Soto returned to the at-bat and promptly singled.  A collective “Whew!” was uttered by the Mets universe.

This did not have to happen.  In my opinion, with 26 games remaining in the season and the team mired in tenth place in a three-team wildcard race, there is no value in putting your highly paid superstar back onto the field to risk severe injury.

I am sure that Juan Soto wanted to return.  He loves to play baseball, and he is so good at the game that he did not even need a rehab assignment to restore his timing.  Soto has had a very durable career, having played in at least 150 games in every full season of his career (all seasons except his rookie call-up year and the 2020 pandemic season).  Soto doesn’t think he will get hurt, but then again, what player (other than Jorge Polanco) expects to get hurt when they step on the field.  Stuff happens.

It should be up to the front office to decide whether to risk his health to play.  The front office certainly doesn’t want something to happen to Soto.  They also have call-ups ahead of them and players to evaluate, so it would benefit them to have Soto’s active roster spot to use.  Did they cave to his pressure?  Are they coddling the star?  Or is it a lapse in judgement?  Certainly, it is not an attempt to win, otherwise they would not be running some of the non-productive pitchers and position players out there with regularity.

There are no incentives in Soto’s contract that he would miss if he sat out the last month.  He is not going to compete for MVP, not going to make the World Series, not going to earn a Silver Slugger, and not going to garner a post-season award even if he hits 1.000 in the last (now 24) games.  He currently has a .283 average with 22 HR and 54 RBI in 300 at-bats.

There is no “team bonding” reason to play him for the last month.  That opportunity has been there all year, and frankly there are several players on the team that will not wear Mets uniforms last year anyway. 

I remain confounded.  24 meaningless games remain, and with no tangible reason why the team would want to endanger their superstar other than his insistence on playing, why does his name show up in the lineup?  Why is he playing all nine innings when he is listed?

Sideline Soto.  Save his health.  Do it for the franchise.  Make sure the public knows that it was not Soto’s choice so he doesn’t worry about being called “soft”.  But for the sake of our future, protect this asset.

Paul Articulates - Revisiting the Soto decision

On December 11, 2024 the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to an historic contract.  15 years, $765M were committed to one of the top players in baseball.  That is an enormous amount of money to spend on any player, and the decision to do so had to be based upon some very detailed analysis that the team was on the precipice of greatness with just one great player required to get there.

In the first few months of 2025, without even seeing the best of Juan Soto, the Mets looked like that team that was headed for greatness.  At one point they had the best record in baseball and were stringing series wins together one after another.

We all know where the story turned from there, and there have been countless stories published about the fact that the Mets are no longer anywhere close to greatness.  In fact, their lineup today looks more like a shopping trip to the Salvation Army than fifth avenue.

With that in mind, I pose the question, “Does this team need Juan Soto?”

One may argue that “every team” needs a Juan Soto, because when you have one of the best players in the sport, your team is inherently better.  But my question is more pragmatic than just being qualitatively better.  It is whether “better” achieves a realistic goal.  When the Mets acquired Soto, their seemingly realistic goal was to win a World Series Championship.  That is no longer a realistic goal.  I am not even sure that making the playoffs is a realistic goal because they have to play .614 ball for the entire rest of the season to be the sixth best team in the NL.  So if Soto makes the 8th best team good enough for 7th or 6th best in the NL, would you pay $765M for that level of improvement?

Let’s start by looking at the Soto contract that was signed in the off-season before 2025:

Value: $765M overall; 

Duration: 15 years

Options: Soto can opt out after 2029; Team can void the opt-out by adding $4M/year for the last nine years.

Trades: Full no trade clause

Incentives: $75M signing; MVP bonus, WS MVP bonus; Silver slugger bonus; All-star, Gold Glove, Hank Aaron bonuses.

Sunk investment: $75M signing bonus plus $124.15M in salary (2025, 2026)

Now let’s look at the return on investment:

Runs scored (2025+2026): 130

Runs Batted In (2025+2026): 114

Runs created plus (WRC+): 156 (2025); 151 (2026)

WAR: 6.4

Clearly Soto makes this team better, but just as clearly, Soto cannot generate enough WAR to tilt the current team from a mediocre team to a World Series contender.  His cost is not only the salary that he is paid by contract but also the luxury tax levied on the team for being above threshold and the inability to sign other highly compensated players.  The Mets are a middle-class household with a Bentley in the driveway.  

With that said, I know that this was not the intended result.  The Mets (and us) thought we would be a legitimate contender by this time, and in that case, having a Soto on your squad is a tremendous asset.  I am not blaming anyone for taking a big shot and signing Soto, but having him on the roster and then blowing up the core was a pretty big gamble that did not pay off.

So now, what to do?  Soto can’t opt out until 2029 and the Mets can’t trade him for pieces to rebuild without his consent to waive the clause.  There are plenty of incentives in the contract to give Soto the motivation to excel during these few years before the option, but it has to be demoralizing to play out seasons with no prize at the end.  My guess is that he might be willing to waive the no trade clause if there is a team willing to pay the price for him that has a legitimate chance to contend for championships over the next few years.

What would you do?

Paul Articulates - Don't expect the same Soto

The New York Mets have rebuilt their team for the 2026 season, so it is natural that most of the things you read about the team deal with the transformation, the players that left, the players that were added, and the speculation about those yet to come aboard.   Not too much has been said about those that remain on the squad, particularly those who we all assume will perform to the levels expected based upon history.

Juan Soto is one of those players who has not been discussed much despite his superstar status and his dominance of last year’s conversation.  It is about time we said a few things about Soto and the season in front of him.

It is easy to assume that he will just be great because he has had so many seasons of excellent performance.  His last two seasons were spent performing before the extensive New York media, so it seems like we know everything about him: his talent, his tendencies, his statistics.  

It is also bad to assume that the 2026 version of Juan Soto will be the same as the 2018-2025 versions of Juan Soto.  Why?  Because beneath his calm, unflappable demeanor lies a competitor who always wants to be better.  Last year’s Soto is not good enough in his thinking.  He was not the MVP; did not win a championship; and did not win any of the triple crown batting titles.  When you are considered “one of the best”, you want to be the best of the best.  He has plenty of competition to motivate him, whether it is Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, or several other top stars.  

Last year, Soto focused his improvement plan on his base running ability and transformed himself from a player that averaged 8 stolen bases per year to one who nabbed 38 bases, almost becoming the seventh MLB player ever to have a 40-40 season.

There is no doubt that he has been working in the off-season to refine his skills to become a better player in 2026.  My opinion: the guy you thought would hit .280, hit 40 homers, and steal 30-something bases is going to show up this year with another leap forward in his skillset.  

My guess is that he will show the world that he can be a better defender.  The biggest criticism he has faced in the last two years was that he was at best an average defender in right field.  He didn’t seem to get a great jump on balls; was far to tentative going after balls over his head; and rarely had an all-out horizontal dive to snare a sinking line drive.  Some of this caution is well-placed.  You don’t want to see a superstar’s name on the IL.  One can name plenty of outfielders, including current center fielder Luis Robert Jr. who have paid the price of lost games to over-enthusiastic pursuit of balls in the gap.

I don’t expect to see Soto crash into a wall or a fellow ball-player this season.  However, I expect to see him get much better jumps on batted balls, and to pursue those balls further now that he is more comfortable with the geometry of Citi Field.  I also expect to see him wow the fans with his power arm, gunning down runners at third and home.  For months now we have discussed the new focus on run prevention.  It is at the top of everyone’s mind in the Mets organization.  Soto, as a star and expected team leader, will take this very seriously and set the example for everyone to follow. 

I am not predicting a gold glove for Juan Soto this year.  I am not predicting a stolen base title.  I am not predicting a batting championship or a triple crown.  But I do think that we will see another big step in the evolution of Juan Soto as one of the most talented players in his generation.  This will help the Mets be a better version of themselves, which should make them much more competitive in the National League than they were last year.

Enjoy the show!