There’s an old saying in baseball, if you don’t like what’s going on wait a week. For the Mets it’s been a horrible, no good vey bad week, swept by the lowly Tigers, losing two of three to the Braves, the triple A Nats, and the dreadful rockies. With a 300 plus payroll this is not the start the team, fans or its owner expected. Currently this is thee worst team money could buy, buuuuuut it’s May. So should there be concern? Or should we just wait a week in this marathon season that is baseball. Let’s have a look at the biggest issues.
Max Scherzer
Max sits atop the list of players that fans are most concerned with, and for good reason. He’s 38, has a plus 5 era and just got shelled by the light hitting Tigers. Counterargument he was coming off 15 days of rest and never found any sort of rhythm. Counter counter argument, his velocity is down, which makes sense at 38, but suddenly his slider doesn’t seem as worrisome to a hitter when you don’t have to think about a plus fastball. His spin rates are also down, something to watch over a larger sample size. Max is a hall of Famer, a bulldog dedicated to his craft, he deserves some slack, but the concern level has risen to MEDIUM
The starting staff
The Mets went from having two aces and the depth of Megill and Peterson behind Senga, Carrasco and Quintana to a struggling ace, one who just debuted, Carrasco who fell of a cliff before getting hurt, Quintana who didn’t make it out of spring, Peterson who couldn’t find the zone and is now toiling in triple A, Senga who’s struggled to locate but has excellent stuff and Megill who’s probably been the most consistent of the bunch (which isn’t saying much). Throw in a middling, but still fairly young Butto, and the staff has been, well awful.
They lead the league in walks and second to last in quality starts. Good news is Verlander has returned, Carrasco is on his way back (unclear if that’s a positive), and as mentioned you have to think Max will get better. But the Mets staff is a microcosm of the roster, there’s talent, but it’s old. Despite the success of Vasil and Hammel down on the farm, there’s probably no help coming this year in terms of the kids. Concern level: HOT
Adam Ottavino
Otto was signed by the Mets in 2022 as a former closer and then set up man who had a nasty frisbee slider and enough juice on his heater to freeze even the best of hitters, but by 2022 he had started to regress. His command was off and he had some rough years with the Yankees and Red Sox, but In 2022 he dominated once again. His command was excellent and his stuff held up, he was thee perfect set up man for Diaz.
This year he hasn’t dominated the way he did in 2022, and the mets don’t have room for error in what was a deep pen, but is no longer after the Diaz injury. Otto has notoriously struggled as his walk rate has increased but this year it’s relatively low and he’s suffered from some defensive lapses behind him. So while his numbers don’t resemble last years he doesn’t seem to be regressing analytically, but these things have a way of snowballing and with very few other options the concern level is MEDIUM
Buck Showalter
When a team with lofty expectations struggles out of the gate the manager usually feels the most heat. Buck is masterful with the media and very likable, but he does have his warts. His bullpen usage is questionable at times, he’s loyal to a fault, but what fans are most concerned with is his usage of the kids. The question is who is making these decisions? Is this on Billy Eppler or Buck himself? Brett Baty should’ve started the year with the big club,
Vientos can do no more in aaa and Mauricio isn’t far behind. So why stick with the vets? Yes rookies will struggle, see Alvarez, but when the other option is a vet opsing 500 what’s the difference? Why not let the rookie get his feet wet, and develop. Without fully knowing who is making the calls on the kids. (Though Buck does have a track record of sticking with vets) it’s hard to blame him for any of the Mets early season struggles. Concern level: MILD
Francisco Alvarez
All anyone heard about the Mets blue chip catcher is that he needed his glove to rise up to the level of his bat. In his small sample in the majors it’s been the complete opposite. His D has been solid, an excellent frame rate, and his Bat looks like it needs seasoning. He’s a big swinger and that won’t change, but his over aggressive approach has him widening the strike zone. In the majors you just can’t do this, pitchers will get you to chase and unless your Vladimir Guerrero that’s a recipe for the Mendoza line. Still the kid is 21 and his d has been more then adequate. So when the vet behind you is hitting 125 why not keep running the kid out there. Concern level: NONE
Starling Marte
In the early going Marte was scorching the ball but every ball seemed to find a glove and his early babip backs this up, but as the season has progressed his hard hit numbers have deflated. The biggest worry is his sprint speed has deteriorated. He went from leading the league in stolen bases as an Athletic to being thrown out over 30 percent of his attempts in 22’, and his defense has taken a nosedive this year. He, like Max, has a long enough reputation where he deserves a much bigger sample size, but there’s reason for concern: MEDIUM
Mets Bats
The teams offense has completely browned out. As is often the case every Met seems to be slumping at the same time, outside of Brett Baty. Pete will find his power stroke again, Lindor will hit more consistently and the surrounding pieces will improve. The problem is the Mets have too many surrounding pieces and not enough established stars at the plate. When they are on their game Mcneil and Marte enter that realm but neither are performing up to their standard and as seen above there is some reason for concern with Marte.
Unlike the starting staff there are some bats down on the farm who could help. Vientos and Mauricio are absolutely raking in aaa. Both give you a feast or famine at bats. Both have a lot of power and their k rates have decreased a tremendous amount this year. The question becomes when will the Mets give them their shot, with guys like Escobar, Pham and Vogelbach (power numbers) struggling that time is coming fast. Concern level: MILD
The Mets
Verlander should help stabilize the staff and there’s good reason to believe Max will be better. The lineup is most likely ebbing instead of flowing but that should turn with Baty now contributing and slumps naturally coming to an end, but when you are relying on older players injury and drop-off are a real concern. This team isn't losing to powerhouses, they are getting rocked by the dregs of baseball. Still, this team is too talented to not improve, If you don’t like what’s going on wait a week, or maybe 3? Concern level: Medium.
