Paul Articulates – The Alvarez Enigma

Francisco Alvarez is out of control. Again.

The former top prospect with undeniable power and a strong arm has now been in the major leagues for four full seasons plus his abbreviated call-up year.  He has also been back in the minor leagues for many injury rehabilitation trips and other remedial tune-ups.

He is that "can’t miss" prospect that always seems to miss.  Why?  He cannot control his passion to make the big play.  Huge swings and misses on balls that he could have driven into the opposite field gap.  Wild throws on the 1-in-100 chance that he can gun down a runner.  This is all hero behavior in a game that much more often rewards patience. 

We have seen him come back from rehab assignments with a fresh new outlook – better appearances at the plate with more selectivity on pitches to swing at; better blocking of pitches in the dirt.  We have also seen that control reversed as soon as success starts creeping in.  

It seems that each big home run is followed by several at bats where he takes mighty swings at balls that cannot be reached.  One caught stealing is followed by unwarranted pick-off throws that eventually find their way into the outfield.  Pitchers exploit his inability to lay off the high fastball above the strike zone and sliders that begin as strikes and dive out of the zone.

The Mets are faced with a tough dilemma: stick with the guy that has immense talent, or part with the guy who has repeatedly shown that he does not have the emotional maturity to harness that talent.  

In his best days, he looks like the player that was projected to be a star catcher for many years to come.  One could use examples of his great games to argue that with a little maturity and the right coaching, he can fulfill the past projections and become a threat in the middle of the lineup and a reliable backstop on defense.

In his worst days, like yesterday’s loss to the Nationals, he hurts the team with poor at-bats in critical situations and costs the team runs with defensive miscues.  One could use the recurring regressions to argue that he should be packaged in a trade and replaced by a steadier influence behind the plate like Luis Torrens.

Either way, Francisco Alvarez will find a way to haunt the Mets.

The Mets’ farm system has shown some very good depth recently, with several promising pitchers like Scott, McLean, Thornton, and Tong coming up.  Their middle-infield depth has soared in the post-trade deadline months.  Similarly, they have developed some very high quality outfield talent like Benge, Ewing, and Morabito.  But the catching progression leaves much to be desired, so there is no heir apparent to Alvarez in the pipeline.  

Yes, we have seen some positive steps by Kevin Parada recently and there have been flashes of brilliance by Chris Suero, but neither seems MLB ready right now.  Hayden Senger is a top notch defensive catcher but despite a better year in 2026 is still not a bat that the team is looking for.  You have to go all the way down to St. Lucie before finding a star-caliber catching prospect in Yovanny Rodriguez but he has years of development in front of him.  There is not an in-house solution for next year.

So the choices are not clear, but the Mets have several months to think about the high stakes risk-reward trade-off with their catching position.

ANGRY MIKE: “BABY METS” VERSUS THE “NEXT WAVE”: STATS ANALYSIS

ANGRY MIKE 

With so much buzz focused on the Mets next wave of hitting prospects, let’s take a look at how the next wave’s MiLB statistics stack up with the previous group of top hitting prospects that are currently on the MLB roster. There are some striking similarities between the current “Baby Mets” and the current top-ranked prospects.

Francisco Alvarez, Jett Williams, and Carson Benge stand out for putting up elite production in their professional debuts. Williams and Alvarez both produced elite numbers despite quickly entering the upper levels of the minor leagues by their 21st birthdays. 

Jacob Reimer, Ronny Mauricio, and A.J. Ewing standout for starting their professional careers off with respectable numbers, and then quickly elevating their prospect profile by producing elite numbers despite reaching AA by their 21st Birthdays. 

We’ve provided plenty of analysis on all of these players, here is a quick breakdown of how they’ve each performed in the minors leagues for you to draw your conclusions on who the Mets should be most excited about currently in the MLB roster and who might be next to make their MLB debuts in Queens. 

F. ALVAREZ -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> Low-A -> 17 years old -> 21% K-Rate | 178 PA

| .312 BA | .407 OBP | .917 OPS | 7 HR | 10 2B | 0 3B | 1 SB | 26 RBI | 

| 32 Runs | 21 BB |

Year 2 -> LOW-A | HIGH-A -> 19 years old -> 23% K-Rate | 382 PA

| .272 BA | .388 OBP | .942 OPS | 24 HR | 18 2B | 1 3B | 8 SB | 70 RBI |

| 67 Runs | 26 BB |

Year 3 -> AA | AAA -> 20 years old -> 24% K-Rate | 481 PA 

| .260 BA | .374 OBP | .885 OPS | 27 HR | 22 2B | 0 3B | 0 SB | 78 RBI | 

| 74 Runs BB | 70 BB |

J. WILLIAMS -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> Low-A |  HI-A -> 19 years old -> 23% K-Rate | 514 PA

| .263 BA | .425 OBP | .876 OPS | 13 HR | 22 2B | 8 3B | 45 SB | 55 RBI | 

| 81 Runs | 104 BB |

Year 2 -> AA | AAA -> 21 years old -> 23% K-Rate | 562 PA

| .261 BA | .363 OBP | .828 OPS | 17 HR | 34 2B | 7 3B | 34 SB | 52 RBI |

| 91 Runs | 76 BB | 

C. BENGE -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> HI-A | AA -> 22 years old -> 18% K-Rate | 509 PA

| .281 BA | .385 OBP | .857 OPS | 15 HR | 25 2B | 7 3B | 22 SB | 49 RBI | 

| 87 Runs | 68 BB | 

R. MAURICIO -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> Low-A -> 18 years old -> 21% K-Rate | 493 PA

| .268 BA | .307 OBP | .664 OPS | 4 HR | 20 2B | 5 3B | 6 SB | 37 RBI | 

| 62 Runs | 23 BB | 

Year 2 -> HIGH-A -> 20 years old -> 25% K-Rate | 449 PA

| .248 BA | .296 OBP | .745 OPS | 20 HR | 15 2B | 5 3B | 11 SB | 64 RBI | 

| 58 Runs | 26 BB | 

Year 3 -> AA -> 21 years old -> 24% K-Rate | 533 PA 

| .259 BA | .296 OBP | .768 OPS | 26 HR | 26 2B | 2 3B | 20 SB | 89 RBI | 

| 71 Runs | 24 BB | 

Year 4 -> AAA -> 22 years old -> 19% K-Rate | 525 PA

| .292 BA | .346 OBP | .852 OPS | 23 HR | 30 2B | 3 3B | 24 SB | 71 RBI | 

| 76 Runs | 35 BB |

J. REIMER -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> Low-A |  HI-A -> 19 years old -> 21% K-Rate | 398 PA

| .265 BA | .399 OBP | .774 OPS | 8 HR | 13 2B | 0 3B | 3 SB | 49 RBI | 

| 63 Runs | 62 BB |

Year 2 -> HI-A | AA -> 21 years old -> 22% K-Rate | 502 PA

| .282 BA | .379 OBP | .870 OPS | 17 HR | 32 2B | 5 3B | 15 SB | 77 RBI | 

| 91 Runs | 58 BB | 

A.J. EWING -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> Low-A |  HI-A -> 20 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 376 PA

| .233 BA | .361 OBP | .751 OPS | 10 HR | 13 2B | 3 3B | 13 SB | 49 RBI | 

| 59 Runs | 63 BB |

Year 2 -> Low-A | HI-A | AA -> 21 years old -> 19% K-Rate | 553 PA

| .261 BA | .363 OBP | .828 OPS | 17 HR | 34 2B | 7 3B | 34 SB | 52 RBI | 

| 91 Runs | 76 BB |

M. VIENTOS -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> Low-A -> 17 years old -> 22% K-Rate | 206 PA

| .262 BA | .318 OBP | .716 OPS | 4 HR | 14 2B | 26 RBI | 23 Runs | 

| 15 BB | 

Year 2 -> LOW-A -> 18 years old -> 17% K-Rate | 260 PA

| .287 BA | .389 OBP | .878 OPS | 11 HR | 12 2B | 52 RBI | 32 Runs | 

| 37 BB | 

Year 3 -> AA | AAA -> 20 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 343 PA 

| .281 BA | .346 OBP | .933 OPS | 25 HR | 18 2B | 63 RBI | 52 Runs | 

| 33 BB | 

Year 4 -> AAA -> 21 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 422 PA 

| .280 BA | .358 OBP | .877 OPS | 24 HR | 16 2B | 1 3B | 72 RBI | 

| 66 Runs |  44 BB |

B. BATY -> Full-Season MILB STATS: 

Year 1 -> Low-A -> 19 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 223 PA

| .234 BA | .368 OBP | .820 OPS | 7 HR | 16 2B | 2 3B | 33 RBI | 

| 37 Runs | 35 BB | 

Year 2 -> HIGH-A | AA -> 20 years old -> 26% K-Rate | 378 PA

| .292 BA | .382 OBP | .855 OPS | 12 HR | 22 2B | 1 3B | 6 SB | 56 RBI | 

| 43 Runs | 46 BB |

Year 3 -> AA -> 21 years old -> 24% K-Rate | 533 PA 

| .259 BA | .296 OBP | .768 OPS | 26 HR | 26 2B | 2 3B | 20 SB | 89 RBI | 

| 71 Runs | 24 BB |

Year 4 -> AA | AAA -> 22 years old -> 25% K-Rate | 411 PA

| .315 BA | .410 OBP | .943 OPS | 19 HR | 22 2B | 0 3B | 2 SB | 60 RBI | 

| 76 Runs | 49 BB |

The Mets plan is simple, build a roster around Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. The hard part will be deciding which of these young, talented players they believe offer the most upside and have the highest chance of reaching their true potential. It’s a great problem to have, that can quickly turn into a nightmare the wrong decisions are made and the players who are traded away perform better than the ones who remained with the team.

Hopefully they all become studs, so everybody wins…

Paul Articulates – A tough call on Francisco Alvarez

The Mets made a very difficult decision on Sunday.  They optioned Francisco Alvarez to Syracuse and called up Hayden Senger to back up Luis Torrens.

Why was this difficult?  Well for starters, Alvarez was one of those “baby Mets” that rocketed through the minor league system and debuted in the majors by playing some very good baseball.   Fans very quickly picked up on him as a hopeful candidate for a superior catcher that had power, a strong arm, and great rapport with the pitching staff.  People had visions of Gary Carter or Mike Piazza, so expectations were through the roof.

Soon there were setbacks, but much was blamed on injuries, and coming back too soon from injuries.  It was never about talent.  Personally, I thought he was going to be a tremendous add to the roster because he showed a strong work ethic and the ability to quickly improve his skills when a deficiency was identified.

But this time, when Alvarez was sent down it was not due to any known injury.  It was a performance issue.  His hitting has regressed, and his defense was costing the team runs.  This was a more difficult decision than most because he had spent enough time in the majors to establish himself as THE catcher.  

To send him down was to admit that the development and coaching staffs had failed to shape him into the player that his potential said he could be.  Many major league teams are not capable of making that type of visible admission to their fan base.  They would just let their guy “play through it”.

I applaud David Stearns, Carlos Mendoza, and Glen Sherlock for doing the right thing with Alvarez, who is still just a “kid” at the age of 23.  He had developed some very bad habits – an exaggerated uppercut in his swing, a tendency to swipe at balls to frame them instead of catching the ball first, and an immobile stance behind the plate that prohibited blocking balls in the dirt.  These are all correctable faults, and when corrected can lead to greater realization of his potential – which is very high.

Will this hurt the Mets?  I would argue that they are already hurt by the lost production and the defensive lapses.  Torrens is not better than Alvarez’ ceiling, but he is better than Alvarez’ floor.

The Mets of previous eras made many short term decisions that cost them dearly.  This regime is making good long term decisions that should benefit the club in the future.  Giving up Alvarez in the lineup for a few weeks in June is much better than destroying his confidence and trying to fix that in September.

I hope Francisco gets it back.  I hope it happens in time to have a positive impact on this season.  Good call, Mets!  

Paul Articulates – Can’t catch a break

At the beginning of every season, there is always some sort of setback.  Teams deal with early season injuries to players that pushed it too hard too fast in spring training, players fail to recover as expected from prior injuries and can’t miss prospects kind of… well, ... miss.

The Mets thought they had their share of these woes when they lost both Sean Manaea (right oblique) and Frankie Montas (lat strain) went down for a couple of months.  Newly acquired utility man Nick Madrigal fractured a shoulder so both the pitching and the hitting suffered blows. 

But then the injury bug hit where it really hurts – Francisco Alvarez broke a hamate bone in his left hand swinging a bat.  Ouch!  

Alvarez was the guy that many expected to have a breakout season this year.  His undeniable promise was shown when he first came up in 2022, but last year was a bit of a setback when he spent several weeks on the sideline with a torn thumb ligament suffered in a base path stumble.  He never really got back to 100%, probably because he tried to come back too soon so his hitting and particularly his power suffered.

Last year around this time I wrote about the plethora of catchers in the Mets’ organization.  We had Omar Narvaez, Tomas Nido, the upcoming Alvarez, prospect Kevin Parada, plus several other solid minor league catchers like Hayden Senger and Matt O’Neill. I wondered what they would do with so many capable backstops.  

Narvaez never played like the guy he was prior to New York, Nido went on his way after Alvarez became the #1 option and Luis Torrens established himself as the top back-up.  Parada has struggled to realize the potential expected of a first round draft pick, and neither Senger nor O’Neill has put together the resume to play full time in the majors.

So now the Mets’ organization is faced with some decisions.  Clearly Torrens has shown the ability to hold the fort as the primary catcher while Alvarez heals.  But who becomes the backup catcher?  Will it be Senger, O’Neill, or Parada?  Will David Stearns have to acquire a backup catcher in a trade or free agent signing?  Will newly acquired Jakson Reetz make a play for the job?  He did hit a grand slam yesterday’s win over the Nationals.  Or will it be Chris Williams who was signed to a minor league deal this year around the same time as Reetz?

There are many moving parts to this decision.  The team has a pretty formidable lineup right now, so I would not expect Stearns to go looking for an offensive catcher.  Rather, the defensive side is more important to the team, particularly with the struggles that the pitching staff has had with holding runners on base. 

Torrens has proven to be a very solid defensive catcher, and at times last year looked stronger against the running game than Alvarez.  Of course few can match the ability Alvarez has shown in calling a game and managing his pitchers.  But for a six to eight week backup, I would think that a good arm and quick pop time would be sufficient.

I am sure that there are plenty of opinions to go around on this one.  My take is that if you truly want a strong defensive catcher to back up Torrens, you either make a deal to get Tomas Nido back or you give Hayden Senger a shot.  

Senger was the Mets’ platinum glove award winner in 2023 as the top defensive catcher in the development system.  The only thing that has held him back from a call-up has been his bat – Senger is a .235 hitter for his minor league career.  But of all the other candidates listed that are currently in the Mets organization, none have hit better than .239 (Reetz) in their MiLB career.

I miss Nido – he was always a player that I enjoyed watching.  But it is not fair to bring him back to the team for a couple months and then leave him languishing in the background for the rest of the season.  My preference is to go with Senger.  What is your opinion?

Paul Articulates – Travis d’Ar-not again!

He was a highly touted catching prospect who moved rapidly through the minor leagues.  One of his strongest points was the rapport he built with the pitching staff.  He commanded the game from behind the plate, but had trouble throwing out base runners.  This season he is batting just over .250 with an OPS in the 700’s while playing around 60% of his team’s games.

I could be talking about Francisco Alvarez, but I could also be talking about Travis d’Arnaud.  You see, their stats are almost identical this year and I find that very concerning.  Travis d’Arnaud came to New York in 2013 with great expectations but after six seasons with the team he was sent packing.  The front office and the fan base were disappointed in his struggles with defense against the running game, his inconsistent hitting, and inability to stay healthy.  In those six seasons, d’Arnaud had one notable year (2015) where he had an .825 OPS and played an important role for the NL pennant winners – but still only played in 67 games.

Francisco Alvarez feels like a different guy, but the stats do not show it.  His career slash line of .225/.295/.430 is not very impressive for a guy that was touted for his power bat throughout his prospect years.   It is painful to watch him now as opposing pitchers exploit his inability to recognize the slider that starts as a strike but breaks down and away from his bat.

Alvarez had weak to average defensive skills while in the minors, but proved a quick study and by the time he reached the majors he played very well, blocking balls, framing balls, and showing off a very strong arm with snap throws to all bases.  Lately though, his defensive game has been off.  He has shown lapses of concentration including passed balls that should have been caught and a very embarrassing play where a runner stole third on Alvarez’ lazy throw back to the pitcher.

This season, Alvarez is batting .255 with a .708 OPS, but it would be even worse if you eliminate his strong month of June.  Without his hot 48 bats in June, Alvarez is slashing .224/.264/.328 which is slightly worse than his career averages.  Backup catcher Luis Torrens is throwing out runners at a much higher rate than Alvarez, which eliminates the pitchers as an excuse for Francisco’s low 11% caught stealing rate.  An interesting statistical view of Alvarez is that his pop time is in the 81st percentile yet his caught stealing rate is in the 39th percentile.  He has an 80.6 arm strength rating, so the difference has to be throwing accuracy.

There have been bouts with injury, including thumb surgery this year.  The catcher position is always one filled with bumps and bruises so it is not uncommon for catchers to be out.  Hand problems can affect batting, but I don’t think his hands have anything to do with the inability to hit the slider.  So if it is not a physical ailment, it must be mental.

The Mets need Alvarez to get on a roll, to hit with some power, and to reclaim his mojo behind the plate.  I believe it is entirely up to him to work out the bugs and start playing at a high level again.  His mental approach needs improvement on both sides of the ball.

I have always been excited about Francisco Alvarez and his potential to be a star with the Mets.  But this year has been a disappointment in all phases of his game.  Knowing the patience of Mets fans and the long history of catcher turnover on this team, I think that Alvarez needs to turn things around very quickly.

Paul Articulates – Catch him if you can?

The New York Mets have spent years searching for a solution to the catcher position on their team.  You probably remember the list of unsuccessful backstop attempts from the last decade.  But in case you have tried to permanently erase that bad memory from your mind, here it comes rushing back again:

2014:  Travis d’Arnaud became the primary catcher after the departure of John Buck.  He was backed up by Juan Centeno and Taylor Teagarden.  There was great enthusiasm about d’Arnaud who came over in the trade for R.A.Dickey that also brought a pitcher named Thor.  Thor brought a bigger hammer as d’Arnaud finished the season batting .242 with a .718 OPS.

2015: This was year two and probably the best of the d’Arnaud era, backed up by steady Kevin Plawecki and future SNY talking head Anthony Recker.  Travis hit  a very respectable .268 with a .825 OPS as the Mets made it to the World Series.

2016: Travis d’Arnaud was hurt for part of the season, and the trio of d’Arnaud, Plawecki, and Rene Rivera split the catching duty pretty evenly.  No playoffs this time.

2017: d’Arnaud was back to health, catching 112 games, but his defensive confidence continued to fade.  He hit .248 and his backups Plawecki and Rivera were not too much better.  Newcomer Tomas Nido played a few games and seemed to hit well.

2018: Travis d’Arnaud injured his UCL in April and caught 4 games this season.  Devin Mesoraco, Kevin Plawecki, Tomas Nido, and Jose Lobaton hit a combined .202 in 574 at-bats.

2019: The d’Arnaud era ended in April as Travis was DFA’ed.  Wilson Ramos was picked up before the season as a free agent in a 2-year, $19M deal as the primary catcher.  He brought the offense as promised, slashing .288/.351/.416 but also recorded a negative 13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).  

2020: Wilson (The Buffalo) Ramos started the year again as the primary catcher, but his hitting prowess was much diminished from the prior year, and defense was not much improved.  In the shortened season, Ramos started 45 games, batted .237, and did not have his contract renewed.

2021: The Mets brought in James McCann on another free agent deal.  Faced with the choice between paying big money to Realmuto or a more reasonable salary for a younger McCann, the Mets opted for the latter.  Over 2 years the “bargain” $40M deal was worth a .220 batting average and six weeks on the injured list with a fractured hamate bone.

2022: It was McCann again, followed by Nido, Mazeika, Perez, and finally (FINALLY!) Francisco Alvarez.

2023: Despite all the impressive performance in the minors where he mastered every level, Francisco Alvarez started the season in AAA as the Mets bought the services of Omar Narvaez to start the season and give Alvarez more reps in the minors.  Narvaez, who may be a distant relative to Wally Pipp, lasted all the way until April 7th when he went on the IL with a leg injury.  Alvarez came up, hit 20 home runs by the end of July, and Narvaez became a highly compensated backup catcher.

I’m sorry to drag you through all that painful history, but there was a point.  There is currently a boiling social media debate about the playing time given to the Mets’ top prospect turned MLB starting catcher Francisco Alvarez.  In the month of September, Alvarez and Narvaez have shared plate duty, often  rotating one day on, one day off.  

Some are exasperated that Buck would not play Alvarez every day, especially with very few games remaining.  Sure, he slumped after his hot mid-season, but this is the “catcher of the future” for the team.  Others argue that this is the right approach to save the wear-and-tear on the young catcher’s body.  He has caught 122 regular season games already, the most in his career.

Where do I stand on this debate?  I believe the Mets are doing the right thing.  Look at the history above – Travis d’Arnaud spent quite a bit of his Mets career nursing injuries.  So did McCann.  It is no secret that the catcher position is one of the most physically trying of any due to the foul balls, bat over-swings, and 150 squats per game.  Young players are more resilient and heal faster, but the wear on the body, particularly the knees accumulates over time.  

With this season all over but the shouting, and Alvarez already recording 118 MLB games in 2023, his “learn-by-doing” time has been spent.  A few more games in September will not delay his maturity for future seasons.  Save him for bigger, better, more important games in future seasons.

[special note – after this article was written, Alvarez was removed from the Mets-Phillies game after taking successive foul balls in the left hand area.]

Paul Articulates - Baby Mets becoming Vets

The Baby Mets is a term that was coined to describe that first group of Mets prospects to hit the major leagues.  The term originally applied to Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos.  It is reasonable to expand that list with Ronny Mauricio who came up later, but is still in the “first crop” of prospects.

Although the 2023 season has been a huge cloud of disappointment for Mets fans, there has been a silver lining.  That is the opportunity for the Baby Mets to play almost every day.  The amount of game experience they have seen would not have occurred if the Mets were in a playoff race, as Buck Showalter has shown a bias towards veteran players when the pressure is on.  

Given the time to play through the daily grind, the group has found it to be a significant challenge.

Francisco Alvarez got off to a hot start, hitting 20 home runs by the end of July and playing superb defense that had everyone talking about him as a Rookie Of the Year candidate.  Unfortunately he cooled off quickly after that and has only had 3 HRs since and has also had several errors on over-aggressive throws to the bases.  As the cooler nights approach, he is beginning to warm up again, but is only slashing .215/.290/.439 so his ROY candidacy is over.  Though not all Mets fans agree, Alvarez is being limited to every other game now to reduce the wear and tear on his body in this longest season of his career.

Brett Baty also started strong, but regressed when pitchers found his weakness for those breaking balls down and in.  His very long swing is not adjusting well, and although a few weeks back in AAA helped perk up his hitting, his return to the majors was met with more struggles.  He may have to retool that swing over the off-season to retain his value to the club.  His defense has also been below average this season, as measured by a -4 Outs Above Average (OAA) and a -7 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) to go with his .955 fielding percentage.  

Mark Vientos had a tough time finding playing time in his time with the big league club earlier this year.  However, as time progressed and other DH candidates failed to excel, Mark got his shot and has made the most of it.  Although his power has not quite made the jump, he has been solid in September, batting .275 in 14 games, including last night’s two home run performance, and a three hit performance back in the Reds series.

Ronny Mauricio finally stepped onto a MLB infield on September 1st.  He has not disappointed those who waited a long time for him to move up.  His first at-bat yielded a screaming 117mph line drive that was the hardest hit ball by a Met this year.  He has shown some power and some fielding promise at both 2B and 3B so far – probably enough to make Brett Baty worried.  Mauricio had a huge spring with the club and while some questioned the delay in moving him up, the extra work in the minors seems to have done wonders as he has transitioned very well.  In 16 games with the Mets, he has slashed .305/.359/.407 – best of the bunch.

There is tremendous value in the exposure this group has gotten so far.  Between the four of them, they have played in 284 games and logged 923 at-bats.  They have seen righties, lefties, and every shape of pitch imaginable.  Although they have not really torn it up, they have seen what they need to prepare themselves to perform at the major league level in 2024.  They are turning the corner from rookie to veteran and if they can deliver on their enormous talent it should be a windfall for the club.

Meanwhile, back on the farm there is another group of prospects coming up.  Call it the “second wave”, and it is looking like a Tsunami.  The Binghamton Rumble Ponies have assembled a “murderers row” of prospects and had them on full display Tuesday night in their first game of the Eastern League Playoffs.  They hammered out twelve hits, including a three-run blast by Jett Williams on the way to a 9-2 win against the Sommerset Yankees.  Yes, that is Jett Williams the 2022 first round draft pick that has already made his way up through the lower levels to star in a AA playoff game just 14 months after hearing his name called.  He joins a plethora of talent including LuisAngel Acuna, Drew Gilbert, Jeremiah Jackson, JT Schwartz, and some pitching that becomes more impressive each time out.  

There is a lot of young talent to watch in this Mets organization, and the debut of the Baby Mets is just the beginning!

Paul Articulates – Alvarez has only just begun

On this site, we spend a lot of time looking at various prospects from the pre-draft days all the way through the minor league journeys of those selected by the Mets.  We have seen some pretty talented athletes that have made their mark, some that got away in trades, and others that flashed brightly but soon faded out.

Sometimes there is something very special about a player that gains significant recognition.  Francisco Alvarez is one of those players.  He was signed in 2018 as an international free agent out of Venezuela.  As is often the case with international signings there is not as much information out there so you don’t quite know how they will pan out until they arrive.  

But soon after he did, many were talking about his skills and soon he was working his way up the list of MLB prospects.  Between 2019 and 2022 he spent time working his way up from the Gulf Coast League through AAA ball and was called up to the major league club at the end of the 2022 season.

I watched him play in AA ball during the 2022 season, and he showed tremendous bat speed and power, but much of his talent was unrefined.  Everyone that worked with him was impressed with how hard he worked on improving his game.  Sometimes there’s a cliché with that – everyone gets credit for “working hard” even when they’re not.  But with this kid, there was something different.  He was improving faster than expected.  

Fast forward to the 2023 season.  Between the TV crew of Gary, Keith, and Ron and the radio duo of Howie Rose and Keith Raad, there have been several comments about Alvarez being “such a good defensive catcher despite reports that he was not”.  The hosts were impressed with his framing and blocking as well as with his arm.  

Other than his arm, these were not strengths in 2022.  Francisco made them strengths over the period of a year through lots of study, hard work, and the tutelage of Yadier Molina in the off-season.  Some baseball players spend years trying to improve weaknesses with little to show for it.  This one turns it around in a year and was among the top catchers in DRS this year.

Now you see what I mean by “something special”.  It’s not just the tools to hit, throw, and run.  It is the will to make yourself better in every aspect of the game.  Look at what he did with chase rate this year.  

In his short stint in the majors in October 2022 and in the first few weeks after his April call-up, Alvarez was chasing balls out of the zone fairly often.  He studied the pitchers, watched his video, worked with coaches and the Mets pitchers, and then cut his chase rate very quickly to the point where he is now below the MLB average. 

So my take on Alvarez is that all the accolades for being a top prospect in the minors were just a preview to what he may become for the Mets.  He has that exceptional combination of physical tools and the determination to constantly improve.  

Like his teammates Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso, he will not rest on last season’s successes, so fans should expect a better Alvarez every year.  That’s a good sign for the team, because when you have a couple of players like that in the dugout it motivates the others to follow their lead.  Mets front office take notice: this one is a keeper!

Happy Memorial Day to all Mets fans!!!

Concern level: Mild, Medium or Hot by David Jacks

There’s an old saying in baseball, if you don’t like what’s going on wait a week. For the Mets it’s been a horrible,  no good vey bad week, swept by the lowly Tigers, losing two of three to the Braves, the triple A Nats, and the dreadful rockies. With a 300 plus payroll this is not the start the team, fans or its owner expected. Currently this is thee worst team money could buy,  buuuuuut it’s May. So should there be concern? Or should we just wait a week in this marathon season that is baseball. Let’s have a look at the biggest issues.

Max Scherzer 

Max sits atop the list of players that fans are most concerned with, and for good reason. He’s 38, has a plus 5 era and just got shelled by the light hitting Tigers. Counterargument he was coming off 15 days of rest and never found any sort of rhythm. Counter counter argument, his velocity is down, which makes sense at 38, but suddenly his slider doesn’t seem as worrisome to a hitter when you don’t have to think about a plus fastball. His spin rates are also down, something to watch over a larger sample size. Max is a hall of Famer, a bulldog dedicated to his craft, he deserves some slack, but the concern level has risen to MEDIUM  

The starting staff 

The Mets went from having two aces and the depth of Megill and Peterson behind Senga, Carrasco and Quintana to a struggling ace, one who just debuted, Carrasco who fell of a cliff before getting hurt, Quintana who didn’t make it out of spring, Peterson who couldn’t find the zone and is now toiling in triple A, Senga who’s struggled to locate but has excellent stuff and Megill who’s probably been the most consistent of the bunch (which isn’t saying much). Throw in a middling, but still fairly young Butto, and the staff has been, well awful. 

They lead the league in walks and second to last in quality starts. Good news is Verlander has returned, Carrasco is on his way back (unclear if that’s a positive), and as mentioned you have to think Max will get better. But the Mets staff is a microcosm of the roster, there’s talent, but it’s old. Despite the success of Vasil and Hammel down on the farm, there’s probably no help coming this year in terms of the kids. Concern level: HOT 

Adam Ottavino 

Otto was signed by the Mets in 2022 as a former closer and then set up man who had a nasty frisbee slider and enough juice on his heater to freeze even the best of hitters, but by 2022 he had started to regress. His command was off and he had some rough years with the Yankees and Red Sox, but In 2022 he dominated once again. His command was excellent and his stuff held up, he was thee perfect set up man for Diaz. 

This year he hasn’t dominated the way he did in 2022, and the mets don’t have room for error in what was a deep pen, but is no longer after the Diaz injury. Otto has notoriously struggled as his walk rate has increased but this year it’s relatively low and he’s suffered from some defensive lapses behind him. So while his numbers don’t resemble last years he doesn’t seem to be regressing analytically, but these things have a way of snowballing and with very few other options the concern level is MEDIUM 

Buck Showalter

When a team with lofty expectations struggles out of the gate the manager usually feels the most heat. Buck is masterful with the media and very likable, but he does have his warts. His bullpen usage is questionable at times, he’s loyal to a fault,  but what fans are most concerned with is his usage of the kids. The question is who is making these decisions? Is this on Billy Eppler or Buck himself? Brett Baty should’ve started the year with the big club, 

Vientos can do no more in aaa and Mauricio isn’t far behind. So why stick with the vets? Yes rookies will struggle, see Alvarez, but when the other option is a vet opsing 500 what’s the difference? Why not let the rookie get his feet wet, and develop. Without fully knowing who is making the calls on the kids. (Though Buck does have a track record of sticking with vets) it’s hard to blame him for any of the Mets early season struggles. Concern level: MILD

Francisco Alvarez

All anyone heard about the Mets blue chip catcher is that he needed his glove to rise up to the level of his bat. In his small sample in the majors it’s been the complete opposite. His D has been solid, an excellent frame rate, and his Bat looks like it needs seasoning. He’s a big swinger and that won’t change, but his over aggressive approach has him widening the strike zone. In the majors you just can’t do this, pitchers will get you to chase and unless your Vladimir Guerrero that’s a recipe for the Mendoza line. Still the kid is 21 and his d has been more then adequate. So when the vet behind you is hitting 125 why not keep running the kid out there. Concern level: NONE

Starling Marte 

In the early going Marte was scorching the ball but every ball seemed to find a glove and his early babip backs this up, but as the season has progressed his hard hit numbers have deflated. The biggest worry is his sprint speed has deteriorated. He went from leading the league in stolen bases as an Athletic to being thrown out over 30 percent of his attempts in 22’,  and his defense has taken a nosedive this year. He, like Max, has a long enough reputation where he deserves a much bigger sample size, but there’s reason for concern: MEDIUM 

Mets Bats 

The teams offense has completely browned out. As is often the case every Met seems to be slumping at the same time, outside of Brett Baty. Pete will find his power stroke again, Lindor will hit more consistently and the surrounding pieces will improve. The problem is the Mets have too many surrounding pieces and not enough established stars at the plate. When they are on their game Mcneil and Marte enter that realm but neither are performing up to their standard and as seen above there is some reason for concern with Marte. 

Unlike the starting staff there are some bats down on the farm who could help. Vientos and Mauricio are absolutely raking in aaa. Both give you a feast or famine at bats. Both have a lot of power and their k rates have decreased a tremendous amount this year. The question becomes when will the Mets give them their shot, with guys like Escobar, Pham and Vogelbach (power numbers) struggling that time is coming fast. Concern level: MILD 

The Mets 

Verlander should help stabilize the staff and there’s good reason to believe Max will be better. The lineup is most likely ebbing instead of flowing but that should turn with Baty now contributing and slumps naturally coming to an end, but when you are relying on older players injury and drop-off are a real concern. This team isn't losing to powerhouses, they are getting rocked by the dregs of baseball. Still, this team is too talented to not improve,  If you don’t like what’s going on wait a week, or maybe 3? Concern level: Medium.