10/6/08

Mets HWL Stats Through 10-5

HWL Stats Through 10-5

Greg Veloz 2B - .345 .766 OPS

Ruben Tejada SS - .318/.348/.455

Jordan Abruzzo C - .214/.357/.214

Scott Shaw P 0-0 1.34 0.60

Roy Merritt P 0-1 2.84 1.26

Josh Stinson P 1-0 1.42 0.79

Junior Guerra RP 0-0 4.50 2.00

9/30/08

Mets Positional Future - RP

Mets Positional Future: - RP

Current:

Billy Wagner - 2009 contract: $10.5mil – will spend the entire year on the IR recovering from TJS.

Scott Schoeneweis - 2009 contract: $3.6mil - word is he has asked to be traded, but we’ll see.

Players like Joe Smith and Aaron Heilman may be back, as well as Pedro Feliciano and Brandon Knight; however, I look for a complete overhaul here which will include Eddie Kunz from the pipeline and many new names from other teams.


Pipeline

Eddie Kunz – 23-yrs old - 27 saves/Bing - Kunz had a miserable debut as a Met, which did knock him down a couple of positions here, but still doesn’t remove him as a top prospect.

Roy Merritt – 23-yrs old - 2008: 0.92 whip 25 Gs/Clones –

Michael Powers – 23 yrs old - In his debut year, Powers pitched for Kingsport and Savannah, combining for: 2-2, 2.88, in 18 relief appearances. He’s a big kid (6-3) from a big school (Michigan), who should be fast tracked in 2009.

Jimmy Johnson - 2008: 0.86 whip/23 Gs/Clones –

James Fuller - 21-yrs old - 2008: 1.00, 1.11/Clones – this is another of those young pitchers that you need to see another year from before bragging about him.

Junior Guerra – 24-yrs old - 2008: 2.12 ERA, 18 Gm – Gnats/King/Clones/Lucy

Samuel Taverss – 20-yrs old – coming stateside after posting DSL numbers of 4-2, 0.90, 0.90, in 23 appearances, 12 saves.


Draft Needs:

The Mets will continue to draft quality relievers in the earlier rounds, something they began targeting in 2007. As you can see, the pipeline is alive and well with good young arms; however, only Eddie Kunz will be ready in 2009 to play in Queens. Look for Michael Powers and Junior Guerra to be fast tracked, due to their age.

Trade/Free Agent Needs:

It’s no big secret that the Mets will acquire a new closer in the off-season. Hopefully, this can be accomplished through FA, so the pipeline surplus in SPs can be packaged for and outfielder or an SP4 ready to step up in April.

9/29/08

Mets Positional Future - SP

Positional Future – SP

Current Mets: Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey

At best, the Mets promote one SP a year to the rotation, meaning, if they don’t sign either Pedro Martinez or Oliver Perez, than the SP4 will come via a trade or through free agency.
To me, that means Jon Niese gets the shot at SP5.

The really great news here is what’s coming down the pipe right behind him:


Pipeline:

Jonathan Niese - 22 yrs. old - 2008: 11-8, 3.13/NO-Bing - Niese won the Sterling Award for Pitcher Of The Year in the Mets minor league system. Niese will get the opportunity to compete for the SP5 slot in 2009.

SP Brad Holt – 22-yrs old - 2008: 5-3, 1.87, 1.05, 14 starts, 96Ks, 72.1 IP for Brooklyn - Holt hit 100 mph in a game last year against Aberdeen. The Brooklyn pitching coach, Hector Berrios, says that he feels that Hot will be in the front end of the Mets rotation ‘in a couple of years’. Holt won the Sterling Award for the top player in 2008 on the Brooklyn Cyclones. Baseball America ranks Holt as the 7th top prospect coming out of the NY-Penn League. I consider Holt and Niese the two untouchable pitching prospects right now in the Mets pipeline.

SP Dillon Gee – 23-years old - 2008: 10-6, 2.92/Lucy-Bing – Gee won the Sterling Award for the top player in 2008 on the St. Lucie team. He’s a control pitcher a la Glavine and ceiling is probably at the SP4 or SP5 slot. Had a wonderful 2008.

SP Bobby Parnell – 24-yrs old - 12-8/Bing/NO – most of you that follow my prospect lists over the years know I never had Parnell very high on them. In his defense, I have never seen him pitch, so it’s hard to judge whether or not he has a future in the majors as a pitcher. I believe he does, but not as a Mets starter. Parnell is in a bad position at his age. He’s projected directly behind Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese, which, going into the 2008 season meant he was behind two untested kids for a rotational spot on the parent squad. The good news for him is Pelfrey is now solidly entrenched into the 2009 rotation. The bad news is the Mets are never going to rotate two rookies at the same time; thus, Niese would get the first shot this year, and that’s not even certain at this point. One of three things will happen to Parnell in 2009. One, he will park his car in Buffalo for a year and wait it out. Two, he will be packaged for a season positional player (OF, C, RP, SP) the Mets need immediately. Or three, he will be converted to the bullpen. I simply expect number one, but think number two would best suit both the Parnell family and the Mets.

SP Mike Antonini – 23-yrs old - 2008: 9-7, 2.77 – Sav/Lucy/Bing – no one expected much from Mike this year and all he did was pitch and pitch well. Probably SP4-5 trade bait.

RP Eric Beaulac – 22-yrs old - 2008: 2-2, 2,38 – Gnats/Clones/King – made a splash this past year and the Mets are very high on him. I expect him back in Savannah in the spring.

SP Brant Rustich – 24/yrs old - Rustich pitched dinged for most of the 2008 season, for Savannah, but still managed to post stats of: 3-4, 3.62, 1.17,in 20 games, 8 starts, 48Ks, 49.2 IP.

SP Robert Carson – 20-yrs old - In 2008, Carson started out with the GCL Mets and pitched impressively: 1-0, 1.57, 0.74. He was promoted to Kingsport, where he went 2-3, 1.76 in 6 starts.

SP Scott Moviel – 20-yrs old – finished 10-8 combined for Savannah and Lucy, with a 4.25 ERA. 6-11 2nd rounder with huge ceiling.

SP Tobi Stoner – 24-yrs old – had a 3.64 combined ERA in 24 starts for Binghamton and Lucy. Continued, for some strange reason, to get little help from the hitters. I see him much more of a trade bait than a future Met pitcher.

SP Dylan Owen – 22-yrs old – 13-7, 3.66 combined for Lucy and the B-Mets. Another of those trade bait possibilities.

SP Jeurys Familia – 19-yrs old – 2-2, 2.79 in 11 starts for the GCL Mets – very high ceiling for the 6-3 kid who the Mets are very excited about. Savannah bound.

Others: Scott Shaw – 22-yrs old - Clones 2008: 6-3, 2.80 - Christopher Schwinden – 22-yrs old - In 2008, Schwinden went 4-1, 2.01, 14 games, 8 starts, 70Ks, 62.2 IP, only 12 BBs, for Brooklyn. - Michael Olmsted – 21-yrs old - Phillips Orta – 22-yrs old - .217 ERA/K-Port-Gnats - Gonzalez German - 21-yrs old - German won the 2008 Sterling Award for the top player on the 2008 DSL team - Jhonathan Torres – 19-yrs old - Torres won the 2008 Sterling Award for the top player on the 2008 VSL team - Angel Cuan – 19-yrs old - Orlando Tovar – 21/yrs old –

Draft needs:

Really none. For the first time in many years, the Mets look loaded in young starters, but as we all know, half of these will poop out by the end of 2009. If so though, that would still leave the Mets with at least 10 good ones. That’s how many pitched well last year.

Trade needs:

Actually, here’s a reversal. Now, the Mets have 6-8 starting pitchers they can package together for 2 trades involving a starting OFer, an immediate SP4, or a closer.

9/27/08

Mets Positional Future - OF

Positional Future – OF


Current Mets:

Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, Nick Evans, Daniel Murphy, Endy Chavez

The Mets can’t win a World Series with 2 infielders playing outfield. And frankly, they have probably got the best out of Chavez. The outfield needs a total overhaul and, frankly, the pipeline isn’t even close to full.

Pipeline:

Fernando Martinez – 20-yrs. old – everyone says he’s still too young and not ready, and keeps getting hurt, and… Tough. Buck up and show us why we’ve been writing about you for what seems like 20 years. A starting outfield of Beltran, Church, and Martinez wouldn’t be the worst in the league, though I still tink the Mets need to go out and sign a free agent in the Vlad/Burrell/Manny mode.

Mike Carp – 22-yrs. old – I’ve never been high on him, but Murphy and Evans proved to be this year that a platoon system can get you through the season. Carp offers a good bat and he can play either LF, 3B, or 1B. The Mets need young utility players with the desire to win every day, and Carp should be given a chance to win one of those utility jobs in 2009.

Cesar Puello – 18-years old – looks like the Mets have a real prospect here and, even though they are short on OF prospects, this kid shouldn’t be rushed. ETA looks like 2011 if he keeps it up. Not earlier.

Ezequiel Carrera – 21-yrs. old - didn’t have the best 2008 and, at this point, he’s not major league bound.

D.J. Wabick – 24-yrs. old – ditto Carrera.


Draft Needs:

This is one of the positions the Mets need to fill their roster with. There simply isn’t enough good bats in the system and I expect them to concentrate on this position in the early rounds


Trade/FA Needs:

The Mets have to find at least one more starting outfielder, maybe two. First, they need to open the bank to players like Vlad, Burrell, and Manny. If that doesn’t work, package three of your young pitching prospects and go get someone in their young 30s that’s being pushed out by a prospect, or trade for someone in their last year of their contract on a small market team. The Mets have a ton of young pitching prospects that simple aren’t all going to make a 5-man rotation. Trade some for what you need, and what the Mets need is an outfielder.

9/25/08

Mets Positional Future - C

Positional Future – C

Current Mets:

Brian Schneider – Schneider turned out to be just as advertises; a .250-260 hitter who plays excellent defense and someone the starting pitchers will fall in love with behind the plate. He was dinged up more than expected, but the Mets had a capable backup when needed.
Ramon Castro - One of the best back-up catchers in baseball, Castro is a very timely hitter who wins a team many more games than other back-ups in the league.

Pipeline:

Francesco Pena – 19-years old – Pena has had two years in Savannah that have been less than exciting, but he still is the Mets top catching prospect and he will play 2009 at 19 years old.

Josh Thole – 22-years old - came out of nowhere this past season, took the starting job away from Sean McCraw, and batted .300 after a full season at Lucy.

Dock Doyle - 23-yrs old - 2008: In 2008, Doyle impressed at Kingsport (.308) and eventually was promoted to Brooklyn. His combined stats were: .303/.382/.389 in 175 at bats. It’s a rare thing having a Mets minor league catcher batting over .300. I expect Doyle to be fast tracked due to his age, but he’s in a catcher logjam behind Pena (scheduled for Lucy) and Thole (scheduled for B-Mets).


Draft Needs:

This one is simply. You never have enough catching prospects in your system. I believe this is one of the key positions that the Mets will try and solve in next year’s International signing period, as well as the draft. Pena has a long way to go to prove to Omar that he will catch some day in Citifield.


Trade Needs:

Normally, I would say that a team like the Mets need to go out and get themselves a big time catcher, but word is everyone is thrilled with the two-headed monster named Brian Castro. I think the Mets will spend their bucks in the off-season on pitching and the outfield, and let this animal alone for another year.

9/24/08

Mets Positional Future - 3B

Positional Future – 3B

Current Mets:

David Wright

Subs: an assorted group of utility infielders

Pipeline:

Jefry Marte - 17-yrs old - At 17 years old, Marte led the GCL league in OPS (.930). Though not currently considered “untradeable” (though not eligible to be traded yet), insiders consider him with higher slugging potential than Wilmer Flores. 2009 should be a true test for this kid, who could start as high as Lucy next spring (though I hope it is Savannah).

Shawn Bowman – 24-yrs old – Bowman is a hard guy to get traded because of his past injury record. The interesting thing will be he produces for a full year at the AAA level. He’s far past the Rule V problems and, potentially, he’s a future candidate for a younger utility bench at CitiField.

Zach Lutz – 22-yrs. old - Lutz played the entire 2008 season for Brooklyn, going .333/.442/.514/.956 in 72 at bats. This included 4 doubles, 3 HRs, and 12 RBIs in 24 games.

Aderlin Rodriquez – 16-yrs old – Aderlin was signed in July 2007 which included a 500k+ bonus. He should surface for the DSL Mets in 2009.


Draft Needs:

It’s no big secret that Wright will be a Met for a very long time, and I can’t see changing a Golden Glove 3Bman to first at this point in his career. The Mets have no need to purposely draft someone for this position, and will, in a tie-breaker, pick elsewhere.

Trade Needs:
Again, no need for a trade here, but plenty of possible trade bait material in the future. Right now, due to age and years in the system, only Bowman could be traded, and some team may do their homework and throw his name in on a future multi-player trade for a seasoned veteran.

9/19/08

Mets - BA: Top 20 NY-Penn Prospects

NEW YORK-PENN LEAGUE TOP 20 PROSPECTS

1. Jason Castro, c, Tri-City (Astros)
2. David Cooper, 1b, Auburn (Blue Jays)
3. Adam Reifer, rhp, Batavia (Cardinals)
4. Derek Norris, c, Vermont (Nationals)
5. Travis D'Arnaud, c, Williamsport (Phillies)
6. Lonnie Chisenhall, ss, Mahoning Valley (Indians)
7. Brad Holt, rhp, Brooklyn (Mets)
8. Nick Barnese, rhp, Hudson Valley (Rays)
9. Jenrry Mejia, Brooklyn (Mets)
10. P.J. Dean, rhp, Vermont (Nationals)
11. Reese Havens, ss, Brooklyn (Mets)
12. Bryan Price, rhp, Lowell (Red Sox)
13. Brock Huntzinger, rhp, Lowell (Red Sox)
14. Danny Espinosa, ss, Vermont (Nationals)
15. Kyle Weiland, rhp, Lowell (Red Sox)
16. Tim Fedroff, of, Mahoning Valley (Indians)
17. Ike Davis, 1b, Brooklyn (Mets)1
8. Chase d'Arnaud, ss, State College (Pirates)
19. Cord Phelps, 2b, Mahoning Valley (Indians)
20. Danny Farquhar, rhp, Auburn (Blue Jays)

Mets Positional Future - 1B

Positional Future – 1B

Okay, this is a completely different animal than 2B.

The Mets hoped to solve their future 1B needs by drafting Ike Davis in the first round of the last draft. The problem that has developed is the fact that Davis did not show the kind of pop Mets fans are accustomed to on this position.

I truly believe that the Mets have a template for what they consider a first baseman. He needs to be taller than Mike Jacobs, have more power than Mike Carp, and a better all around game than Craig Brazell.


Current Mets:

Carlos Delgado - it’s going to be pretty impossible not to recognize Delgado’s team MVP efforts this past season. Yes, the Mets may still make a few phone calls to Mark Teixeira’s agent, but, I’m going to assume that Tex goes elsewhere. You have to pick up the option to the best first baseman in the league during the 2nd half of the season, don’t you (sort of the same boat that the Yanks are in with Giambi).

Utility wise, the Mets have or could have used either Marlon Anderson, Daniel Murphy, or Fernando Tatis to give Carlos v2.0 a day’s rest.


Pipeline:


Ike Davis - still the top choice for future Mets 1Bman, but he needs to step it up with a wood bat in 2009. I only have one 1Bman in my top 50 prospect list, and that would be Davis.

Mike Carp - Carp really isn’t a 1B prospect. He’s, at best, a future AL DH. If the Mets had plans of using him at 1B in Queens, he would have played 2008 in New Orleans. This just isn’t going to happen.

Lucas Duda - Had a nice first year in Brooklyn in 2007, got off to a hot start in Lucy this year, but faded. Doesn’t look like he’s a candidate either.

And, that’s it. Teams like Savannah spent the season in search of one by converting players that played other positions. And, there’s no one making headlines in K-Port, GCL, or the Latin teams either.

Draft Needs:

It just isn’t a wise move to draft a first baseman with a 1st or 2nd round pick. First basemen in high school and college usually mean they are limited in basic baseball ability. The Mets shouldn’t be trying to solve the future needs of this position through the draft. I’m sure the Mets plans before the all-star break were to open their bank account to Tex’s agent, but that probably has changed now. Carlos Delgado deserves at least one more year in CitiFiled, and the issue of a future first baseman can be tabled for a year.

Trade Needs:

Like drafting, why trade for an established first baseman before the start of the 2009 season when you still have one of the best available to you at a discounted rate. A new first baseman is 2010’s problem. The Mets need to concentrate on finding a 5th starting pitcher, help in the pen, and a real outfielder.

9/18/08

Mets Positional Future - 2B

Positional Future – 2B

No position on the Mets baseball team has had more people run through it in the past 5 years. I’m not even going to begin to list the fodder.

For now, the starting second baseman (Luis Castillo) isn’t starting that often because of Damion Easley’s wonderful fill in job he has done since the all-star break. Even more exciting is the emergence of Daniel Murphy to the parent squad, who is projected to go back to 2B full time either when Castillo’s contract runs out, is bought out, or is traded.

Murphy is no outfielder, yet he has earned a locker at CitiField, but is he supposed to sit on his ass for 3 years waiting for Castillo to go away?

I assume something will be done here. Easley might survive as a utility player one more year, but that’s all. And the Mets will somehow deal with the contract they ridiculously gave this guy.
But what happens if they stay with Castillo, trade away Murphy in some deal for a 1Bman or real outfielder, Easley retires, and then Luis goes down with a season-ending injury?
Well, the fact it, what happens to either Castillo, or Murphy… or both… is directly tied into what’s in the pipeline in the Mets system.

I’m not going to break down every Met player that owns a 2Bman’s glove, but here are just the guys I have in my Top 50 Mets Prospects list, their age (projected age player will be on opening day 2009), stats from last year, and other tidbits:

2B:
Current Mets:

Luis Castillo:

33-yrs old - Contract through 2011


Dan Murphy:

23-yrs old – drafted 2006
3 full years training at University of Jacksonville
2009 will be the 4th year of commitment to Mets

Damion Easley:

39-yrs old - Free agent after 2008 season


Pipeline:

Greg Veloz

21-yrs old - Sterling Award Winner in 2008 - .278 BA Gnats/Lucy – 29 SB
2009 will be his 3rd year of commitment to Mets

Josh Satin

24-yrs old – batted .280 for the Clones in 2008 – 6th round draft pick ‘08
4 years of college training at Univ. of California

2008 was his 1st year of commitment to Mets

Kyle Suire

23-yrs old – batted .297 for K-Port in 2008 – 35th rounder in 2008

2 years college training at Louisiana Univ – Monroe

2008 was his 1st year of commitment to Mets

Alonzo Harris

19-yrs old – 39th rounder in 2007 – out of H.S.

2009 will be 3rd year of commitment to Mets


It seems pretty obvious that the Mets are in great shape right now at second base. I’d like to think than Murphy gets the job for the next 5-7 years, but, if he doesn’t for some reason (and one of those reasons can be a phone call from some other team’s GM after watching the great showcasing job the Mets did this fall with him) stick around with the Mets, it looks like to me that Veloz could become major league ready by… let’s see… 2009 in Lucy… 2010 in B-Town… 2011 in Buffalo… gee, that would be right at the end of Castillo’s contract.

If you’re asking why do you draft both Satin and Suire, you do so the hope is the organization turns out one major league second baseman every 4-5 years. No one was sure of Veloz (and frankly, it’s still far to early to tell on him either) at the time of the draft, and here are two guys that have played college ball and have matured their talents in school at no cost to the team. The good news is both are off to a great start and will follow behind Veloz in case he stumbles. Remember, you draft by talent, not position. Many draftees do not reach the majors playing the same position they played in high school and/or college. If the talent is there, you’re find a place for the talented player.

Even better news is the great start Harris had this year. Harris was a late signee from the 2007 draft that played the entire 2008 season for the GCL Mets, going .308/.379/.510 in 104 at bats. He’s a high school boy born in 1989, so there’s plenty of time here to develop.

Positional need to draft:

Absolutely none, but always, always draft the best ‘middle fielder’ available.

Positional need to trade:

Again, absolutely none. In fact, the Mets have some room to deal up either Murphy or Veloz in a package deal for a seasoned vet needed at another position.