3/28/15

Positional Ranking - RF




#20 Mets


NamePAAVGOBPSLGwOBABatBsRFldWAR
Curtis Granderson525.227.316.410.3235.51.4-1.61.7
John Mayberry70.226.292.377.297-0.60.0-0.20.1
Kirk Nieuwenhuis56.221.290.382.297-0.50.00.30.1
Matt den Dekker49.237.295.364.293-0.60.1-0.10.0
Total700.227.310.401.3163.81.5-1.71.9

Curtis Granderson has accomplished plenty in a career that includes more than 35 WAR, plenty of highlight reel catches, and two 40 homer seasons. He also has charisma and class coming of his ears, so it’s pretty easy to root for him to do well. That made 2014 a little difficult given that he was a below average player. Perhaps more interestingly, Granderson’s arm stopped functioning.

While DRS and UZR have different opinions of Granderson’s range in right field, they both think his arm is completely for decoration. DRS says he cost the team eight runs with his arm and UZR calls it 7.4 runs, the worst among right fielders with at least 700 innings last year by a comfortable margin. Even when Granderson was a great defender, he didn’t do much of the work with his arm, but I suspect now that he doesn’t have the range he used to, there’s less room to hide.

Fortunately for John Mayberry, he doesn’t have to hide from his manager when right handed starters  are on the mound now that he’s backing up the left handed Granderson. Mayberry’s been 30% better than league average at the plate against southpaws in his career, but righties have eaten him alive to the tune of an 81 wRC+.

Matt den Dekker will probably end up floating between Triple A and the majors to spell the aging corner outfielders, but the other 27 year old on this list, Kirk Nieuwenhuis is the one to watch. His 130 PA in 2014 were BABIP fueled and likely unsustainable, but he walked a ton and hit for power in addition to his high strikeout numbers. Even if he’s half as good as he was in his stint last year, he should be a nice option off the bench.

Mack - I don't see Grandy with the injury potential that Cuddyer has in left field, thus I feel that the lion share of games will be played with him in right.

I absolutely love his spring numbers but I'll believe them (in the regular season) when I see them. As I have said on a previous post, it is extremely important for both him and Travis d'Arnaud to start off the season hitting above the .250 range.

I believe it will happen so I think that Mayberry and Nieuwenhius will get the major about of their at-bats platooning from the other corner position.

Lastly, none of the Mets outfielders scream out to you as mega-starts, but they all are capable of putting together an above average season. That may be all they need to do with this pitching staff.


Tom Brennan - OFFENSIVE IMPROVEMENT


Tom Brennan - OFFENSIVE IMPROVEMENT 

Just something to chew on - the Mets' spring offense the past 3 years worked out pretty much as follows: 

.246 average, ,320 OB%, .372 slug %, 4.4 runs per game, 2.6 extra base hits per game. Paltry. 

This spring, so far: 

.291 average, .361 OB%, .487 slug %, 5.9 runs per game, 4.0 extra base hits per game. Muscular.  See Juggernaut above, and you'll get the idea.

Things are clearly looking up offensively.  Those who are Negative Nellies might say that some of the offense is unsustainable, that much of the surge this spring is from guys who may not make the team, etc.

I personally think it is a harbinger of a large increase in scoring for this team in 2015, of perhaps 100-150 runs over last year's 629.  Which means a lot more wins in 2015.  

The Juggernaut lives, and is coming soon to Queens.  Exciting.

Positional Rankings - Mets Catchers



#12 Mets

NamePAAVGOBPSLGwOBABatBsRFldWAR
Travis d’Arnaud480.253.312.434.3266.30.0-6.62.6
Anthony Recker128.207.270.360.280-2.8-0.2-0.50.3
Kevin Plawecki32.245.298.364.294-0.40.00.00.1
Total640.244.303.415.3153.2-0.2-7.13.0

Say this about Travis d’Arnaud: He (mostly) stayed healthy in 2014, after missing time in each of the two previous years to left leg injuries. His first full season was generally a success, though it gets a lot more interesting if you look at his first- and second-half splits:
First half: .217/.292/.354 (81 wRC+)
Second half: .265/.313/.474 (124 wRC+)
You can’t simply look at that and presume that what he was in the second half is the player he’ll be going forward, but with Mets fans still reeling from the Zack Wheeler injury, let’s give them something to dream on here. Appropriately, the non-Fan projection systems aren’t going overboard on d’Arnaud, because the others all see him as a ~112 wRC+ guy, which is more than good enough. Anthony Recker is a mere placeholder, but it’s not him that d’Arnaud has to worry about. It’s Kevin Plawecki, who has done nothing but hit his way up the ladder, and reached Triple-A last year. N0. 40 on Kiley McDaniel’s Top 200 list, he should make his big league debut sometime late in 2015, and the Mets may have a decision to make on their long-term future behind the plate next winter.

Mack - Let's face it... the future of Mets catching will make a lot more sense if Arnaud works out as the kind of player he was projected to be as a prospect. 

I believe he has the bat to make it big time, but I'm not sure about the body. He also has more bad luck behind the plate than any catcher I have seen in years. 

Lastly, his almost obsession with framing continues to cause too many passed balls. He needs to keep his eye on the ball being thrown, especially when most of them from this staff are over 90 miles per hour.

I love the potential of Plawecki, but, in my book, this is d'Arnaud's job in 2015... and, if he plays his cards right, well past that date.

Mack - Orlando Arcia


Current Level/Age: High-A/20.6, 6’0/165, R/R
Signed: IFA at age 16 on October 22, 2010 out of Venezuela by MIL for $95,000 bonus
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 45/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Orlando is the younger brother of Twins OF Oswaldo Arcia and has been beating expectations since he signed out of Venezuela in 2010 for $95,000. After signing, he immediately looked like a steal as a skinny kid that could play shortstop and hit a bit, but he took another step forward this year, hitting 13% better than league average, stealing 31 bases and posting great plate discipline numbers in a full season at High-A at age 19.
There’s still plenty of room for Arcia to improve offensively, as the speed and defense are carrying his prospect status for now, but the tools are here for more impact at the plate.  Arcia is a gap-to-gap, line drive type hitter, but his power started to show up more regularly in games last year and it continued this winter, where he hit 7 homers in 55 games in Venezuela.  Arcia missed some time in 2014 with a minor ankle injury, but the Brewers stuck with him at a challenging level and he rewarded them with a solid performance in a pitcher’s league and park. Some in the organization think he’ll add a lot more muscle, with some think he may even get taller.
Summation: Arcia will head to Double-A next year at age 20, he has the look of a solid everyday shortstop and he’s just scratching the surface.
Upside: .275/.335/.435, 15 homers
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB

Mack - Are we still looking for a future shortstop? I mean, Ian Desmond is a full time free agent next off season right?

Well, if we are, we might want to take a peak at someone that Sandy Alderson would love. 

In 2014, at the A+ level, he hit .289, had an OPS of 738, and walked 42 times (struck out only 65) in 498 official at bats. He did all this at 19-years old.

The team's problem is they already have 24-year old Jean Segura playing there (.246), who isn't eligible for his first arbitration until 2016.

Just starting a new list... 


Mack - David Wright




2:40
Comment From Joey
Who puts up the best season is 2015? Crush, Wright or Nelson Cruz?
2:40
Paul Sporer: Davis barely over Wright


The loss of pitcher Zack Wheeler  for the 2015 season is a big one, but it comes at a position where this team has considerable depth and talent. Any attempt to reach the playoffs should not be erased because Wheeler went under the knife.

 That being said, the Mets could never afford to lose their one true star, David Wright, and get into a playoff game.

Sandy Alderson would be the first one to tell you (and he does in the book 'Baseball Maverick') that, due to financial restrictions since taking over the team in 2011, he could only go after, and sign, 'mid-level talented players'. There's not too much you can do if you inherit a team that just lost $70 million dollars the year before and your owners are telling you to lower your overall payroll to the $80-90 million range.

Curtis Granderson, Michael Cuddyer, Travis d'Arnaud, Bartolo Colon, and John Mayberry Jr. are all good example of quality mid-range players.

Add them to what's coming out of the system (Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, Wilmer Flores, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Famila, Jennry Mejia, Juan Lagares) and you have the beginnings on a very talented, young team.

But it's Wright that is the one true all-star everyday player and, until others this talented are added to the mix, everything will be dependent upon the return of Wright to the levels he has produced in the past.

I happen to think 2015 will be a great year for Wright, but I fear he's running out of them. He's 32 years old now and not the baby faced rookie we all thought would never get old. 

Enjoy the power bursts.


3/27/15

Top College Players This Week



ACC
Top-Five Batters
#NameSchoolYrPosPAK%ISOBABIPxK%xISOxBABIPKATOH+
1Will CraigWake ForestSo1B1159.6%.375.44212.6%.228.347149
2David ThompsonMiamiJr3B1167.8%.371.33811.4%.227.337147
3Matt ThaissVirgniaSoC946.4%.329.30311.1%.201.334136
4DJ StewartFlorida St.JrLF11821.2%.380.33320.3%.232.337136
5Nate MondouWake ForestSo2B12014.2%.269.39515.6%.187.343128
Top-Five Pitchers
#NameSchoolYrPosIPTBFK%BB%xK%xBB%KATOH-
1Brendan McKayLouisvilleFrLHP26.09842.9%9.2%33.8%9.2%66
2Sarkis OhanianDukeSrRHP18.06838.2%0.0%29.5%6.6%70
3Benton MossN. CarolinaSrRHP21.79336.6%4.3%29.9%7.5%72
4Drew HarringtonLouisvilleSoLHP22.08139.5%7.4%31.0%8.6%72
5Kenny KoploveDukeJrRHP13.75942.4%10.2%30.8%9.5%74
Pac-12
Top-Five Batters
#NameSchoolYrPosPAK%ISOBABIPxK%xISOxBABIPKATOH+
1KJ HarrisonOregon St.Fr1B/C11915.1%.371.40515.4%.222.333143
2Chris PaulCaliforniaSr1B10212.7%.310.37913.9%.190.329132
3Chris KeckUCLASr3B10312.6%.318.32413.8%.194.325131
4Lucas ErcegCaliforniaSo3B1048.7%.261.36711.3%.173.329129
5Gabe ClarkOregon St.JrDH8915.7%.352.23115.8%.199.318128
Top-Five Pitchers
#NameSchoolYrPosIPTBFK%BB%xK%xBB%KATOH-
1Ryan BurrArizona St.JrRHP16.27345.2%12.3%33.4%9.8%70
2David BergUCLAJrRHP22.29135.2%2.2%29.1%6.4%73
3Griffin CanningUCLAFrRHP35.013131.3%3.1%27.7%6.2%76
4Matt BowerWash StJrLHP23.09437.2%11.7%30.3%9.7%78
5James KaprielianUCLAJrRHP38.015030.7%5.3%27.6%7.1%79
SEC
Top-Five Batters
#NameSchoolYrPosPAK%ISOBABIPxK%xISOxBABIPKATOH+
1Harrison BaderFloridaJrLF10315.5%.380.37915.7%.222.336138
2Alex BregmanLSUJrSS1182.5%.287.2847.1%.193.327136
3Jared FosterLSUSr2B/OF7913.9%.377.35814.8%.206.334132
4Christin StewartTennesseeJrLF9115.4%.352.32715.6%.206.331130
5Mikey WhiteAlabamaJrSS9912.1%.289.45113.6%.187.342130
Top-Five Pitchers
#NameSchoolYrPosIPTBFK%BB%xK%xBB%KATOH-
1Ben BowdenVanderbiltSoLHP16.26637.9%7.6%29.7%9.0%78
2Brady BramlettOle MissSoRHP35.013730.7%4.4%27.8%7.3%79
3Cole LipscombAuburnSoRHP24.210034.0%7.0%29.1%8.6%79
4Alex LangeLSUFrRHP38.014231.7%7.0%28.5%8.4%80
5Daniel BrownMiss. St.SoLHP14.15837.9%8.6%29.3%9.3%80

Positional Ranking - SS




#17 Mets

NamePAAVGOBPSLGwOBABatBsRFldWAR
Wilmer Flores  525.257.293.413.309-0.1-0.3-3.81.9
Ruben Tejada140.246.315.320.285-2.6-0.10.40.4
Wilfredo Tovar35.239.287.307.266-1.1-0.10.10.0
Total700.254.297.390.302-3.9-0.4-3.32.3
There’s considerable angst — publicly, at least, if not necessarily privately within the organization — regarding Wilmer Flores’ ability to play shortstop. The specifics of that angst vary, but most of the concerns are summarized by the footage below.

Flores Fall Down

What that is, is Wilmer Flores failing in a pretty spectacular way to convert a ground ball — a pretty routine ground ball, it appears — into an out. It’s rare to see shortstops flail about in this way. Locating similar footage of Andrelton Simmons, for example, would prove difficult.
On the other hand, Flores — according to the numbers — hasn’t been a disaster yet at shortstop. And the prospect of his offensive ability with even slightly below-average defense is inviting.

Mack - I'm sure Flores is sick of watching all this negative footage; however, so is the Mets brass as well as the fan base.

Frankly, I've always been critical of his SS play and have stated a number of times that he will never play the major leagues at short (due to his slowness and legs/feet issues). That being said, I'm pretty impressed with what he has done going into the regular season.

The bat was predicted but his defensive work has, overall , been a plus.

Baring injuries, he's got my vote for 2015. 

Interview with Mack Ade of Mack's Mets - with Gary/Metsmusings

 Mack Ade of the great blog Mack's Mets joins me (15:52) to talk all about the Mets, the front office, the minors, you name it. So join me for an interesting baseball chat.

Mack’s Morning Report – 3-27-15 – TJS, Baseball Maverick, Injuries



All reports out of Savannah are that this will be the l of the teams have been at odds with each other over replacing Grayson Stadium just about since the day they bought it. Reports locally are that there are no plans for the city to try and find another team to place an affiliate there, nor do they intend on funding the money needed for a new stadium. They've went through that process and voted it down.

Savannah is a tough down to get progress completed. They've always had half of their head stuff in the ground and have never tried to be anything more than a sleepy version of another Macon, Georgia rather than a smaller version of Atlanta.

I tried to build a radio tower there back in the 1990's and needed the approval of the town council. It never happened. I would have had more success putting a McDonalds in Yemen.

The fans love the Braves and the only night more than 2,000 people attend a game is "Thirsty Thursday". 

I will miss nothing about going to that stadium.




It’s no big secret that the main reason so many pitchers are having Tommy John Surgery is that they are consistently throwing the ball harder than 92 miles per hour.
There’s also been a lot written that there are too many pre-high school kids being coached to add a breaking pitch to their repertoire, putting too much excess stress on their arms before they are fully developed. Repertoire? What is God’s name is a grade school baseball player doing trying to develop a repertoire?

And lastly, very few coaches early on have any concern with the pitch count of the starters on their team, both on and off the mound. The supervision of what a pitcher does in between his official starts is close to non-existent at most of the small town high school levels and simply doesn’t exist before that.

So what does all this lead to?

Well, maybe throwing a baseball has simply become a high-risk job and ripping or tearing tendon or muscle is just the reward for trying to do your job to the best of your (sic) ability.

And maybe it’s the job of a General Manager to stockpile 7-8 pitchers all capable of being part of a major league rotation in case two or three of them go down with a season ending injury. Losing one out of eight seems to be the norm now.

The players with the most talent in leagues for junior high school players are mostly pitchers. And more and more teams will be stocking their system with as much pitching talent they can draft out of the high schools of America. Forget college. The damage may already be done there.



I read Steve Kettmann’s ‘Baseball Maverick’ this past week. Things I learned about the New York Mets and Sandy Alderson included:

-the Boston Red Sox offered IF Chih-Hsien Chaing and pitcher Alex Wilson to the Mets for OF Carlos Beltran. Alderson asked that a young prospect named Rougned Odor be added to the deal, but Boston declined.

In 1965, Alderson joined his father who worked for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), by collecting and coding cables from outside embassies. This job was never disclosed publically before the printing of this book.

Alderson was one of the Marines that stood guarding the body of President Lyndon Johnson while it is was lying in state in the Rotunda for the general public to view.

Under the ‘and you thought Jeff and Fred were tight’ category, the 1979 Oakland A’s went 54-108, had a home attendance of 306,763, had only 653 attend one home game and… owner Charles Finley didn’t attend one single game.

Alderson installed the first weight room in baseball (Oakland).

The Mets passed on drafting Mark McGwire in the 1984 draft, allowing Oakland to pounce (seems the Mets felt that McGwire wouldn’t sign with them, a feeling we’ve heard many times before).

Alderson acknowledged that the Mets lost $70 million dollars in his first year (2011) as General Manager.

Alderson said that the subject of Bernie Madoff was never discussed during his interview for the GM position. “I didn’t raise it. Maybe I should have. The bottom line, I would have taken the job anyway”

He also said “if we sign Jose (Reyes), we are just maintaining the status quo. We’re not improving the team.”

Alderson acknowledged that, as late as 2013, Juan Lagares was still considered behind Matt den Dekker as the top center field prospect in the organization.

Alderson on Ruben Tejada: “Gradually you come to the conclusion that Tejada is just a placeholder. He’s not a long term guy for us.”

A trade of Ike Davis to Pittsburgh was delayed because the Pirates were pissed about how much they had to give up in the Marlon Byrd trade (I was right… many teams ran in the other direction after both this, the Beltran for Wheeler deal, and the Dickey trade. They didn’t want to be the next victim of Alderson’s ability to pull off a decent trade).

Alderson on Gonzalez Germen:  “This guy went on the DL with an abscess. How do you go on the DL with an abscess?”

I recommend the book if you are a Mets fan. I especially recommend it if you are either a Zack Wheeler or Josh Satin fan, because it seems like the same amount of words were spent on them that were written about Alderson.

It was obvious that Alderson agreed to cooperate with the author early on, but direct quotes became very sparse by the end of the book. At that point it almost became a play by play description of both the 2013 and 2014 season.
Still, as I said, you’ll enjoy the insight into our beloved Gee-Em.




Zack WheelerJosh EdginBobby ParnellVic BlackDaniel MurphyWilmer Flores.

Mets fans are reeling on #MetsTwitter, blaming everybody in the organization about what’s happening in camp this spring, but is this an exclusive problem that only the Mets seem to have every season?

We’ve all seen all the charts and studies about today’s pitchers that throw the ball over 92 miles per hour Tommy John Surgery is an epidemic shares by all 30 teams in the league and no one, I repeat, no one can make a young pitcher throw a baseball at less speed than he is humanly possible to throw it. TJS will happen and it will probably happen to at least one more Mets pitcher this season. First, get over it and, second, be happy that Sandy Alderson recognizes this and decided to hold on to his excess pitching prospects this spring. Yes, the rotation will miss Wheeler, but Dillon Gee isn’t chopped liver.

Regarding Black, Murphy, and Flores, you are going to have players dinged in camp if you play them. I know it sounds stupid, but you can’t play your first regular season game with a squad that hasn’t played a single inning of spring training baseball. Pitchers are going to throw too hard and strain something (they don’t tear it every time). Hitters are going to over-swing and pull something. And batters are going to foul pitchers off their ankles regardless of how well they are in shape.
Stuff like this happens to every team, but the only teams that are overly affected by it are the ones with limited depth. I believe that all but two of these guys will be back
100% by, latest, May 1st, and the Mets have good enough secondary players, if needed, to hold the fort down.