Reese Kaplan -- Stopping Short

Welcome to part 3 of the 11 part series on the 2017 New York Mets roster (assuming the choices exist among the existing personnel in the majors and minors).  Today we'll take a look at shortstop options.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Not since the days of a speedster named Jose Reyes have the Mets had a steady and effective presence on both sides of the diamond.  While signing Cabrera probably had fantasies of him capturing the 25 HR/92 RBI season that made him an All-Star in 2011, most felt such projections for him were unrealistic and that season was an outlier in an otherwise fine but unspectacular career.  Surprisingly he's closing in on surpassing the 20 HR plateau though with far fewer RBIs hitting most of the year at the bottom of the order.  Had injuries not forced him to miss nearly 150 ABs, then the 25 HR mark would not necessarily been out of reach.  Not bad at all for an $8.25 million investment.  However, his very success this season may spell a prompt end to his NY Mets tenure.  The team needs to address other needs and they do have alternatives available to them.  He would be attractive to another club at an $8.5 million salary.  Trading one of the other options would not net nearly as much in return.  If they do keep him, expect him to return to SS.

Jose Reyes

With potential vacancies at both 2B and 3B due to the respective injuries to Neil Walker and David Wright, there doesn't seem to be any reason other than nostalgia to pencil him into the shortstop role over Cabrera.  The only way I could see that change happening is if they do move Cabrera in trade to recoup his salary to address other needs.

Gavin Cecchini

The Mets really don't know what they have with the former first round draft pick.  He's put up two solid hitting seasons in a row, but his defense was off the charts (in a bad way) for most of the season.  Granted, maintenance of the field at Las Vegas was never particularly good, but it's alarming for a guy whose reputation was built first on defense.  He did make successful adjustments and over the final third of a season he was markedly better.  The problem is that he's had no experience at the major league level and thus no one knows what he will become.  Will he be a slow footed hitter with modest power a'la Rick Burleson, or will he continue to develop?

Amed Rosario

The Mets are a very conservative organization when it comes to promoting players from the minors.  Occasionally out of desperation they may skip down a level to promote a reliever out of desperation (such as Dario Alvarez now flourishing for the Braves), but their MO is more often to leave people longer than usual in the minor leagues.  While this approach can be damaging to many pitchers forced to struggle in Las Vegas, hitters can also develop bad habits given the abnormal offensive environment.  Would they consider promoting him all the way to Queens after hitting a combined .324 between A and AA this year?  He's supposedly ready to play in the majors with his glove right now.  The question is whether or not the bat and baserunning will continue to evolve.  His presence makes Gavin Cecchini likely trade bait as his upside is considered greater and under a normal development schedule he would be starting at SS in Las Vegas in 2017.

Matt Reynolds

A major regression with the bat has pretty much rendered Reynolds invisible.  His best hope is for a bench role.

My Prediction

They went into 2016 with a brand new middle of the infield and I predict that in 2017 they will do so again.  Neil Walker will be wished well with Jose Reyes shifting to 2B.  At shortstop I think they're going to strike while the iron is hot and trade Cabrera a year too soon rather than blocking both Cecchini and Rosario.  With the multitude of alternatives at 2B, they also have Jose Reyes as a fallback position.  I think we shall be saying adios to Cabrera unless they are overwhelmed by an offer for Cecchini.  Rosario is going nowhere.  The fact they're in a pennant chase partially explains the reluctance to play Cecchini this September, but it also doesn't hurt his trade value to show his final stats with a .325 batting average.  A sub-Mendoza September trial could hurt significantly.

SOMEONE ELSE FOR A CHANGE

SOMEONE ELSE FOR A CHANGE by Tom Brennan

As Met fans, we've had our exciting miracle finishes. 1969, 1986, 2015.  But we've had an awful lot of times when things went south, imploded, like the year the Mets led the Phils by 7 with 17 games to go and bit the dust.


Meanwhile, across town during the Jeter/Rivera era, it often seemed things almost always went right for them when it went wrong for us...like the World Series game where the Mets' Todd Zeile's ball hit the top of the fence and stayed in and lollygagging Timo Perez got thrown out at the plate and the whole series swung in the Yanks' direction. 


Last night, though, in a pretty darned must win game for the Yanks, the Yanks behaved like the Mets of yore - THEY CHOKED.  Leading the Red Sox going into the 8th, Big Papi (who is the Yanks' Chipper Jones) goes deep with his 537th (passing Mickey Mantle, an ominous sign) to make it 5-2 Yanks.


Betances in the 9th has a three run lead, but slowly gets into deeper and deeper trouble, and then John Sterling bellyaches over a check swing by Hanley Ramirez that the Cliché Man was sure was a strike.  Instead, a favorable 3-1 count for Hanley, and Ramirez takes advantage by dropping a game-winning 3 run shot on the Yanks and down they went.  As Dr. Smith used to say on the 1960's show Lost in Space, "Oh, the pain, the pain."


Met fans certainly remember many such painful moments.  But this time, it happened to SOMEONE ELSE FOR A CHANGE.  Which made me smile.  I contacted my brother and filled him in on what happened to the Yanks.  He told me he was REALLY smiling.  It happened to the other guys!


I know, I know, we shouldn't gloat.  Can't help it, though - I just hope the bad news does not somehow show up in Metsville.  Lousy teams on the schedule, hopefully many happy wins from now until year end, and no bad news.


Hopefully, Matz, deGrom, Duda, Lagares, and Flores are healthy and ready for the rest of the season (and post-season).  Hopefully, Bruce and d'Arnaud can rediscover the magic.  Hopefully, Lugo and Gsellman will continue to excel.  Hopefully Thor remains supernatural, and hopefully we get to see the Fat Wonder, Bartolo Colon, carried off the field after recording the last out of the World Series.


Let's sweep the Twinkies and move on, and let the bad stuff happen to SOMEONE ELSE FOR A CHANGE.

WILD CARD DRIVER'S SEAT

 

WILD CARD DRIVER'S SEAT by Tom Brennan

Sixteen games to go, trailing the Giant and leading the Cards by a half game each, how do the Mets look?

They look to be in the driver's seat.

Of course, they looked that way against the Phil's several years ago when they led the Phils by 7 with 17 games to go and folded.  So there are no guarantees until the words "the Mets Win the Wild Card" can be excitedly spoken.

The Mets have those 16 games left, 10 of which are at home, all of which are against sub .500 teams, so if they do not make it in, they do not deserve it.

The first 3 are against the Twinkies this weekend.  Easy, right? Well, Brian Dozier has hit 24 homers...no, not this season, he's hit them in his past 43 games! (Compare to Jay Bruce's performance as a Met over the same period.  Compare to Travis D's 14 RBIs this entire year while you are at it). So they will have to earn a winning series.

Then 3 at home with the Braves. Then 4 at home vs. the Phils.  Nice.

Anything less than 6-4 on this homestead would be a huge disappointment.  A good team would find a way to go 7-3.

We should have Matz and deGrom back for at least short outings, a plus, but if Wilmer remains hurt and his hot bat goes missing, they are at risk.

Then they close with 3 on the road against a hopefully eliminated Marlins squad (currently 4 back in the WC race) and a final 3 game series in Philly.

Prediction:10-6 season finish. Wild Card.

The Cardinals currently have a much tougher schedule, with 4 on the road vs. The Jints, and 3 vs. The Cubbies.  Of course, the Cubs will have clinched and may be throttling back, so that needs to be kept in mind. Also, 3 vs. Rockies, 4 vs. the wimpy Reds, and a finale 3 game set against the currently collapsing Pirates.

The Giants of course square off against the Cards for 4, but also face the Kershaw-led Dodgers for 6, plus 4 vs. the Pods and 3 vs. the Rocks.  So they, like the Cards, have a far more difficult schedule than the Mets.

One has to believe either the Cards or Jints will falter down the stretch, given their tough schedules. The Giants are 4-6 in their last 10, and the Cards 5-5, so they do not appear to be juggernauts by any means.  I think, of the two, the Cards will find a way to nail down the other Wild Card.

All in all, though, the Mets are in the driver's seat for a Wild Card berth, hopefully at home.

But they can't have games like yesterday, when Bruce and then TJ Rivera failed to come through in a bags full, one out situation in the first inning that cost them the 1-0 game yesterday.  You can have the easiest schedule in the world, but you have to win the winnable games.

BOYS, LET'S DRIVE!

Reese Kaplan -- Second Choice

Welcome to part 2 of the 11 part series on the 2017 New York Mets roster (assuming the choices exist among the existing personnel in the majors and minors).

Neil Walker

Had back surgery not ended Walker’s season prematurely it would have been one of the more hotly debated topics of the Hot Stove Season – whether or not the sloppy seconds “reward” of Neil Walker for similar money would make up for the MVP-season loss of Daniel Murphy.  Ongoing back problems and eventual surgery make it highly unlikely the Mets would be interested in bringing back the high ticket Walker using the return of David Wright to convince the fan base that his offense will be more than offset.  If Walker would accept a one-year “prove yourself” type of deal and then try for the big free agent deal in 2018, then I could see them making a run at him, but otherwise I think he has played his last game for the Mets already.

Jose Reyes

In an ill advised move to accommodate the since out-of-baseball Kazuo Matsui, Reyes did once start the year as the starting 2nd baseman, and although he’s played primarily 3rd this season to fill in for the injured David Wright, all signs point to the Mets’ collective delusion continuing that Wright will be available next season.  Therefore Reyes needs to shift to somewhere and Asdrubal Cabrera’s solid season (health notwithstanding) suggests that latecomer Reyes is the fellow on the move.

Wilmer Flores

With more good options available at 2B than elsewhere on the diamond, I don’t think the most recent injured Mets is destined to be the starting second baseman.  After all, the propensity to favor veterans over rookies would be justification alone, but Reyes brings a dimension of speed and anxiety to opposing pitchers and catchers that’s sadly missing from the offense.  I stick by my thought he should be part of a 1st Base platoon.

TJ Rivera 

Here’s an interesting dilemma for the Mets.  When they finally deigned to add the lowly regarded .323 career hitter to the 40 man roster he picked right up where he left off in the minors.  He’s a pesky hitter who has great ABs, but he’s kind of in the mold of Tom Herr who finished the 1985 season with a .302 average, only 8 home runs but 102 RBIs.  Could Rivera do something like that?  I doubt we’ll ever know because he plays multiple positions (none of them particularly well) and isn’t blessed with Reyes-like speed.  His future is on the bench and perhaps usurping the Wilmer Flores supersub role if Wilmer indeed becomes a semi-regular.

Asdrubal Cabrera

This prospective move – tampering with success – makes no sense whatsoever.  Cabrera is not Ozzie Smith but he’s been steady and solid at shortstop.   He’s under contract next year for a relative bargain at $8.5 million for 2017.  There is probably greater likelihood they would trade him to create room for Reyes or Gavin Cecchini than there is moving Cabrera to 2B.

Gavin Cecchini

Here’s the toughest one to figure out.  He started off looking like one of the busts of the Mets scouting crew who seemed to have found a good glove/no-hit kind of shortstop.  However, when the 2nd baseman of the future – Dilson Herrera – was sent to Cincinnati in the Jay Bruce trade, many were clamoring to try the suddenly hot hitting and defensively challenged Cecchini to 2nd base.  I even asked him about that a few weeks ago when he was here in El Paso to play the Chihuahuas but he said no one had asked him to do so.  Yet.  Just as the season came to an end he was given some innings at 2B and is going to the Arizona Fall League presumably to play there semi-regularly.  Like Rivera before him on this list, he’s got the potential to hit for a high average, but his advantage is his status as a number one draft pick.  His 21 year old season in AA resulted in a .317 AVG and this past season at the ripe old age of 22 he hit .325 for Las Vegas.  During the late season surge to a post-season he’s not likely to get much of a glimpse so he remains a great unknown commodity.

Others

The usual suspects – Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, Matt Reynolds and Kelly Johnson – are not likely to be considered starters if the team is serious about contending.

My Prediction

Bank on it, when the season starts in 2017 the Opening Day 2nd basemen will be Jose Reyes.  Look at the reasons:  a fan favorite, a leadoff batter, a base stealing threat and the dominant reason that towers above all others – the contract allows them to retain his services at bargain basement prices.

HOW CLUTCH IS CESPEDES?

HOW CLUTCH IS CESPEDES? by Tom Brennan

I am writing this before the Mets-Nats series begins.  

How clutch is Yoenis Cespedes, and where would we be without him?

Answers: 1) VERY clutch.  2) Nowhere, man.

Yoenis Cespedes had been up 91 times with runners in scoring position, hitting .286 on a team that is hitting .218 with RISP, and is last in RBIs with RISP at 330 and 19th in homers with 33, despite being 5th overall in homers with 196.

He has an amazing 50 RBIs (including the 4 on his grand slam in Sunday's finale with the Braves) and a .648 slugging percentage in those at bats.  

By comparison, Curtis Granderson is 12 for 91 with RISP, Travis d'Arnaud is 5 for 44 with RISP.  That's .125 in those clutch situations for those 2 over 135 at bats.  To have 2 key guys doing so awfully in those spots, and still be in the Wild Card race, someone has to be doing something right.  Even Asdrubal Cabrera has hit none of his homers with RISP.
  
Several players have been valued contributors with RISP, such as Neil Walker, Kelly Johnson, and Jose Reyes, but most notably in the RISP contributor column is Yoenis Cespedes.  One can only imagine if he had not missed so much time with injury, having missed 27 games to date and 6 others in which he only pinch hit.

So, Sandy, Wilpons, Cespedes is a keeper.  Please keep him.  Please.  Thank you in advance.  Speaking of Clutch, I needn't remind you that you didn't, by the way, keep the very clutch Daniel Murphy...The guy hitting .350 With 44 doubles with 3 weeks to go...and how is that one looking right now?  Keep Cespedes, the other Mr.Clutch.  or be prepared for very rough terrain in 2017 and beyond.

PRE-PLAYOFFS VS. NATS

PRE-PLAYOFFS VS. NATS by Tom Brennan

The playoffs are interesting animals.  Once you're in you play - you lose, you go home like everyone else.

The Mets have 3 games coming up with Daniel Murphy's division-leading Nats with just three weeks left in the season.  Kind of like pre-playoffs.  Lose all 3, chances are worsened that the Mets make the playoffs.  Win 2 or 3 of the 3 games and the Mets' playoff chances become far more likely.

With that in mind, I recommend a roster tweak: promote Paul Sewald and remote either the unused, .159 hitting Eric Campbell or Logan Verrett, who is a stunningly bad 0-8 since the start of May, having allowed an ugly 53 runs and 15 homers in 70 innings during that time span.

Sewald had a very strong season in AAA this season, and a great overall minor league career.  If I have to choose between Logan Verrett and Paul Sewald, I go with Paul. It is hard for me to imagine Sewald has been so very good pitching in relief at every level, but would be not good enough to succeed in the majors.  The main guys in the pen need a blow, and Verrett isn't up to the task. Sewald, I bet, is. Let him eat some innings.  Do it now, Sandy.

Recall Paul. Let's win these pre-playoff games with the best qualified players at our disposal.

Cespedes (who in his last 15 games has 14 RBIs, as many as D'Arnaud has had all year) and Reyes can only take this team so far by themselves.  Give them a pitching upgrade in Sewald.

And if we make the 1 game Wild Card, let Super Seth Lugo pitch it....what the heck, he's pitched like an ace, a totally unexpected one.  We could do worse. He looks legit.

The Mets sit at 76-67 with 19 games to go, remarkable when one thinks that 3/5 of the vaunted starting staff - Harvey, Jake and Matz - only have combined for 20 wins. 

 After these 3 games against the gnatty Nats, 16 games are left against weaker, sub .500 teams. Never easy, but it sure could be worse.

Mets sit at 196 homers, just 4 short of tying the team record.  Get Duda back here so he can pinch hit a homer and break the record this week.  C'mon, Lucas. With only 571 runs so far, I wonder if they will be baseball's lowest ever 200+ homer scoring team.

Lastly, Gavin Cecchini went down on a foul tip strikeout in his major league debut as a pinch hitter.  Good to get the first AB out of the way, now it's time for the first hit.  Better things lie ahead.

G'day, Mets' Mates.

Grandy has Gone from Bland to Grand

Grandy has Gone from Bland to Grand by Tom Brennan

First of all, let's forget baseball for a sec and remember the events of September 11, 2001.   I was a quarter mile away when the planes struck, close enough to be safe and also to experience the horror of the events first hand. Never forget.

I also had the privilege of seeing NYPD Daniel Rodriguez sing this summer. He was the one who sang God Bless America so powerfully at Shea right after 9/11. He is still awesome vocally.  God bless you, Officer Rodriguez.

OK.  Back to Grandy. I have often bashed him for his season long struggles with both runners on base and against the shift.  Deservedly.

Terry Collins stayed with his vet (as he tends to with vets) I felt for far too long. 

Nope. This round goes to Terry Collins.

I was wrong and I admit it - Grandy has exploded over the past several days, just as Terry knew he would. Grandy's RBI totals are really starting to climb out of the cellar, and he looks like he has a real shot for 30 homers. Hey, maybe by next week he reaches 30, at this rate.

His explosion is no coincidence…it is part of Mets magic.

We're 15 years past the horrors of 9/11, and the Mets are now playing like a team from 15 years before 9/11, namely the 1986 squad which, when it trailed late in games, gave off the aura of a team that was imminently about to figure out how to viciously overtake their opposition.   

Sure, there was a nearly 4 month stretch this year when they hit terribly, more like the offensively sputtering 1968 Mets, and couldn't overtake anybody in those 4 months.  

But when Cespedes, and a once-again hot-late-in-the-season Grandy hit the "dominate" switch, like in 2015, with a repeat dose of Killer Kelly Johnson, this team wins.  A lot.  

Let's hope the boys keep it up, deGrom and Matz get 100% healthy and rejoin the team shortly, Duda and Lagares join the party, and we somehow win the World Series ring that escaped us last year when the magic ran out.

That would be GRAND, JUST GRAND.

UPDATE: 
Of course, having written the above in advance of last night's loss, my praise for Collins above was detoured by not pinch running for Flores and as a result costing the Mets the game. And of course Granderson went 0 for 4 after I wrote this article Saturday morning.  Oh, well.  

HUGE mistake by Collins. Let's hope it does not cost the Mets the Wild Card.  Every win counts.

Reese Kaplan -- Who's On First?

As the Mets continue their quest for a second straight post-season appearance, it’s never too soon to look ahead to what will happen when next season arrives.  This article will be the first of an eleven part series analyzing roster options from the available players currently under Mets’ control.  To kick off this endeavor, let’s first look at who might be handling first base duties for the 2017 season.

Lucas Duda

When the Mets made the decision to dispatch Ike Davis and keep Lucas Duda, many were caught by surprise given what Davis had accomplished and what little Duda had done as mostly an outfielder in the early stages of his Mets career.  However, that faith was quickly well rewarded as he turned in his finest season in 2014 with 30 HRs and 92 RBIs.  He followed that with a 2015 campaign with 43 fewer ABs he still delivered 27 HRs and drove in 73.  There were slight upticks in OBP and OPS, so everyone was confident he would be a major cog in the 2016 offense.  The back problems that afflicted Duda brought a quick end to his season, and though there’s a slim chance he could return later this month, no one knows how he’ll hold up and manage the limitations his injury and recovery have caused.  Look no further than David Wright to understand what back problems can do to a power hitter.  Duda’s currently earning $6.725 million and is arbitration eligible in 2017 before becoming a free agent in 2018.  There have been whispers that the Mets could consider non-tendering him in order to sign him at a lower price but he would be under no obligation to return to Queens.

James Loney

The veteran first baseman started off with a bang but is ending on a whimper.  Overall his .264 average is 20 points below his career mark.  What’s concerning is his pitiful .308 OBP and .373 slugging percentage.  He’s a pretty slick fielder without much power, but the fact he’s also left handed and offers no positional versatility and no baserunning speed, he’s far from ideal to be a player off the bench.  My recommendation is to wish him well as he tries to sign on for more playing time elsewhere.

Jay Bruce

Despite the lackluster start to his Mets career, Jay Bruce is a proven major league power hitter who ironically was leading the league in Hrs before donning the orange and blue.  With the logjam of outfielders on the Mets roster, there’s been some talk of moving Bruce to play 1B.  Offensively he’s rather similar to Lucas Duda with a longer track record and higher average seasonal output.  He’ll cost double what Duda would be he offers more of a guarantee of health which might outweigh the usual bargain hunting Mets priority.  He’s only had 3 major league games at 1B so the prospect of this transition may not be realistic.    

Wilmer Flores

While the manager has positioned Wilmer Flores as primarily a devastating force against left handed pitching, he’s quietly putting together a second consecutive campaign with solid HR/RBI numbers.  After providing .263/16/59 in 483 Abs in 2015, he’s already delivered 16 Hrs and 49 RBIs with a slightly higher .270 AVG in nearly 200 fewer ABs.  That kind of productivity leads many to question how he would do if given the opportunity to put in a full 550-600 AB season. The idea of 25 HRs and 80 RBIs doesn’t seem beyond the realm of possibility.  However, his struggles against right handed pitching mitigate some of that potential.  In addition, he was slated to be the supersub this year in the mold of a younger Ben Zobrist who would get nearly full time production while playing all over the diamond.  If committed to a single position then the Mets must address who would take on that role.

Michael Conforto

Many have voiced the opinion that the young outfielder step aside and establish himself as a 1st Baseman though he’s not ever played it as a professional.  He’s cost controlled through 2019 and a shift to 1B would give him the opportunity to contribute nearly every day, something that's not likely to happen if he remains in the outfield.

Curtis Granderson

Since you’re saddled with his contract for one more year, you could instead of making Conforto learn a new position ask the rag-armed Curtis Granderson to do so.  The better move might be to try to trade him while his value is relatively high with a strong finish to his season in terms of home runs.  However, given the penchant for veterans it’s unlikely they would look in that direction despite the crowded outfield.

Yoenis Cespedes

While he may or may not opt to remain a Met, the fact is that his legs might respond better to a 1st Base assignment than to the demands of running in the outfield.  It would be a crime, however, to lose his cannon of an arm to a position that has virtually no throwing needed.

Travis d'Arnaud

2016 has been a disastrous step backwards for the designated injury victim.  Would a switch to 1st Base as many other offensive-oriented catchers have done help him hone his game while staying on the field?  His defense and throwing are nothing to write home about, but the question is whether or not he'd ever generate enough offense to justify the move.

Kevin Plawecki

Is it real or is it Memorex?  In this case, is the .312 average for real or is merely the PCL effect that inflates numbers in Las Vegas.  Unlike others on this list, Plawecki actually does have experience as a 1st baseman, but is not likely going to generate more power than James Loney.

Others

I don’t think Eric Campbell, Kelly Johnson, Ty Kelly or TJ Rivera would be given serious consideration for a full time gig.

I endorse a Conforto/Flores platoon as a low cost slugging solution.  Take the $7 million or so that it would cost to retain a perhaps limited Lucas Duda and use it to pay the pitchers or address other problems. What do you think?

BRAVES-METS

                BRAVES-METS by Tom Brennan

Not an exhaustive analysis, but just a few thoughts.

The BRAVES had won 7 of 8 before being swept in 3 close games by the despised Nationals.  So they are showing real improvement and scoring more.

Despite scoring more of late, they are still 29th in runs at 540.

Despite the Mets scoring more of late, the Mets are 27th in runs at 552, even with 92 more long balls than the Bravos.

Freddie Freeman, Mets' arch-nemesis, is having a fine year, with nearly 40 doubles and nearly 30 homers.  May his reign of Met-targeted terror end this weekend.

Anthony Recker has roughly 70 at bats and is hitting .279.  Figures.  Don't be the Mets' season recker, Anthony.

The Brave's D'Arnaud has 7 more RBIs than TDA's 14.  35 RBIs for an entire family in mid-September is none too good, though, if you ask me.

Mets will take 2 of 3 in their continued trek towards the Wild Card and October Glory.

Somewhere, Lucas Duda is taking batting practice. Nothing to do with anything, just rambling.

TGIF, folks.