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Only one game, but WOW.  

It is not 2017 anymore.

Gary McDonald - Interview with Skip Lockwood

I recently interviewed former NY Mets closer Skip Lockwood,on my podcast MetsMusings Skip, has a new book out and was happy to discuss it with me.  Here is an excerpt of that interview. 

MM: My guest tonight he is a former relief pitcher

for the New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Milwaukee Brewers, he

even played for the Seattle Pilots and

his name is Skip Lockwood and he's got a

brand new book out called" Insight Pitch:

My Life as a Major League Closer" and

He's here tonight.Skip thanks so much

for coming on Mets Musings.

Skip Lockwood: Great  to be back

this close to New York again.

I remember New York very very kindly

We had wonderful years there , we had a house in

Greenwich and Tom Seaver was my ride to

the ball park. we had friends, we

just had a blast, I enjoyed  playing at Shea

Stadium. I pitched okay and I got a

chance to pitch in important games.

I just love New York and I'm in many

many cases I I wished I had still stuck

around I miss it.  I miss New York, I miss the people, Broadway.

MM:You had a short but a very

nice career here in New York and not a

bad ride to the ballpark coming in with

Tom Seaver.

Lockwood: Now Gary, you know Tom was

very instrumental.  I think a lot of

players that played with Tom will tell

you the same he was a guy that you know

got up on your grill, yeah and he was

a guy that could teach, he was a guy

who was thinking very

clearly about the psychological

components of the game I think he was

way ahead of his time in preparation

physically and emotionally mentally for

every game. He really left no stone

unturned, you know he went to the to the

ballpark every single day with purpose

in mind. Everything he did seemed like it

was designed to help him pitch better, to

help them think about pitching better,

he was really a mentor for me, and very

inspirational in many many different ways I

 enjoyed being around him. All I had to do

is listen, sometimes he was confrontational sometimes with me he was

a guy that  was a clear leader for me and a guy that I thought influenced my career an awful lot.

MM:Now in your book you

speak about how you prepared for a game

and you did a lot of a

mental imaging can you speak a little bit about

that and how you got into that?

Lockwood:Yes, the book is an attempt to be authentic. What

I tried to do is write the book, and I

wrote every word of the book myself, I

try to speak as if I was taking you with

me out on the mound, you and I are

throwing the pitch, you're inside the

uniform you're gripping the ball, you're feeling what it's like to be out there. I try to be honest and I try to

you know do with a sense of humility but

I wanted people to, just like you would

ask somebody if you're at a bar.

So the book was an attempt to

take you with me on my journey. Part of

my journey was good and part of it

was great that the part that was good

was in Milwaukee and in California

that's okay.

I was a starting pitcher for the Brewers and had

some pretty good games but I never I

never really turned it into something

that I could count on something that was

repeatable. I really didn't know why I

was pitching well and then I started to

uncover ways to relax and visualize what

was going to happen on the on the mound

and use that visualization as a tool

very specific very detailed I was very

much in tune with how the movie was

going to play.

I saw me pitching and I would watch the movie,

me pitching before I would ever go out

and pitch the game it was something that

I prepared every day.

I prepared every pitch it was I saw Tom

do it and I saw how he did it and I

tried to learn from him I tried to learn

his techniques.

If you wish to hear the entire interview go to metsmusings.com episode #317.

R.I.P. - Rusty Staub

From Bill Madden/NYDN - 

Staub died at 12:30 a.m. Thursday at the Good Samaritan Medical Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, due to multiple organ failure. He was initially admitted with pneumonia, dehydration and an infection and had spent the last eight weeks in the hospital. He would have turned 74 on Sunday.

Mike Friere - So, What is BABIP?

In an effort to make "all that is old, new again", I have resurrected an old series of articles that I put together in a previous "Mack's Mets" lifetime that focused on the new wave of statistical analysis that has shaped baseball scouting and player rankings.  Some would refer to them as "Sabermetrics" and others would argue that it isn't necessarily new anymore. 

Both of those statements are true, as we are all getting older by the minute, right?

However, to keep things somewhat fresh, I will go over a new statistic each week and then I will attempt to relate that measure to our favorite team and one or more of our current players to see how we rate, so to speak. In the second installment of this series, we took a look at OPS and how it is arguably the most comprehensive statistic used to measure a batter’s effectiveness.  For this article, we will address a statistic known as BABIP that is versatile in that it can be used to analyze BOTH pitchers and hitters. 

So, what the heck does the acronym BABIP stand for?   While it would be fun to come up with sayings that match the listed letters, it would no doubt devolve into something that

Mack would not want “in print”, so to speak.   BABIP stands for “batting average on balls in play” and as stated earlier, it can be used for batters (the number of times a batted ball in play is scored a hit) and for pitchers (the number of batted balls allowed that are scored a hit) which is pretty useful, if you ask me.

For those of you who are statistically inclined, are not afraid of math and actually enjoy figuring things out by hand (that pretty much eliminates all of us), here is the formula

that is used to figure out BABIP;

                                              Hits - HR

                    BABIP =     --------------------------

                                        AB - K - HR + SF

    

It may seem odd that home runs (HR) and strikeouts (K) are basically excluded from consideration while using this formula.  However, it is done so because a home run and/or

a strikeout are not “balls in play” where secondary factors (like defense, for example) can affect the outcome.  For example, let’s say Yoenis Cespedes plays in both ends of a double header against the Nationals and is responsible for 4 hits in 10 at bats with 1 home run, 2 doubles and 1 single.  Additionally, he also produced 6 “outs” on the day and let’s say 3 of them come via strikeout.   Using our basic formula, you would eliminate the strikeouts and the home run, leaving a BABIP of .500 (3 hits from 6 batted balls in play), which is impressive any way that you analyze his “mock” performance.

Understanding a particular statistic is one thing, but providing a frame of reference is also necessary.  As such, this formula begs the question(s) what is a good BABIP and is it the same for pitchers and hitters?  GENERALLY, an “average” BABIP for any player usually hovers around .300, with minor fluctuations from year to year due to secondary factors like the quality of a team’s defense (better defensive range usually means fewer hits for the opposition).   With that said, the fluctuations usually don’t move more then +/- .015 unless other factors are at play (more in a minute).  

This statistic is a bit sneaky in that the number itself is not as important as how it compares to the “expected baseline”.  The difference or variance from what is seen as average is more important then the actual number.  Some players, due to their talent, will sport higher (hitters) or lower (pitchers) BABIP’s and that can be used to separate better players from their average teammates, especially if you have a sustained period of performance to draw upon.  However, this statistic is also an excellent tool to identify a “fluky” season, or a “career year”  for a player that is unlikely to be repeated.  This can be done both positively and negatively and that is how I like to use the measurement.

Let’s use Jose Reyes as an example;

For his career to date, Jose has a lifetime batting average of .286 (respectable) and a lifetime BABIP of .308, which is slightly over our agreed upon benchmark of .300 but is likely explained by his above average speed which logically leads to more infield hits versus ground outs.  In 2011, Jose had an excellent season and actually won the NL “batting title” for the year with a batting average of .337 which is very good.  The listed batting average was 52 points higher then his career average and it was primarily boosted by a higher then normal BABIP of .353, which was 45 points over his career average (conveniently in a “contract year” no less).

So, did Jose suddenly become a Wade Boggs clone or was this season simply a fluke?  If you look at the year before (2010), Jose produced a batting average of .282 with a .301 BABIP which is more in line with his career averages.  The year after his magical season (2012), Jose followed with a batting average of .287 and a BABIP of .298, so it is safe to say that the 2011 season was an outlier and it happened to come at a perfect time for his bank account.

MOST players who have exceedingly high OR low BABIP figures in any given season will likely “regress to the mean” the following year.  So, if you identify a player who posted historically poor numbers and they also had a lower then average BABIP, you should expect a “bounce back” season, health notwithstanding.  Or, you can identify a player like Jose in 2011 with a higher then average BABIP and not be surprised when they “come back down to earth” in future seasons.

Taking a quick look at the Mets’ 2017 season, I could only find ONE offensive player who had a BABIP over our benchmark of .300 (Asdrubal Cabrera) and his .310 mark which was only slightly above average.  Having said that, I am sure that the excessive injuries last year played a role.  But the Mets’ team BABIP was .286, so you can logically assume that the team is due for a “bounce back” season on offense when you factor in a simple regression to the mean.   A similar theme presented itself with our pitching staff, as only one pitcher actually pitched enough to qualify for the statistic (Jacob deGrom posted a BABIP of .305), which says something in itself.

One additional player to consider is Todd Frazier and his UGLY batting average (.213) from last season.   That figure was "supported" by a BABIP of .226, which is way below his career average BABIP (.271) and even his last full season in the National League (Reds) in 2015, when he had a batting average of .255 and a BABIP of .271 (exactly his career average).  I think he is primed for a better season in 2018 and perhaps he will be a "Comeback Player of the Year" candidate.

Much like any statistic, BABIP can assist with player evaluations, but should not be used as the only factor in an evaluation.  However, BABIP can be a valuable predictive tool for future seasons, especially when you have a larger body of work to analyze.

Ed Delany Pics - Dash Winningham, Harol Gonzalez, Michael Conforto

First up is 1B Dash Winningham doing all he can to tag out an opponent runner. 

Next up is a favorite of mine, pitcher Harol Gonzalez. 

And lastly, outfielder Michael Conforto hitting a home run Tuesady in an intra-game...

Tom Brennan - METS ARE OPENING DAY BEASTS

With opening day less than 24 hours away, it is cool to reflect on something this team was awfully bad at for its first several years, and then incredibly awesome thereafter:

WINNING ON OPENING DAY.

The bumbling, fumbling, sometimes crumbling Mets over their first 8 years of existence won not a single opening day game, and were OPENING DAY LEASTS.

But, starting in 1970, they became OPENING DAY BEASTS.

Tom Seaver (after NDs in opening day losses in 1968 and 1969) finally solved the jinx and got them in the opening day win column - finally.  That Seaver fella started 11 Mets openers, and won 6, lost NONE, and had 5 no decisions.  Now THAT is amazing - 11 opener starts without being charged with a single loss.

That 1970 win was the start of an amazing stretch in which the Mets won 18 of 20 opening day games.  After that, the opening day fun continued, but at a lesser pace, with the Mets going a mere 18-10 in openers thereafter.

Overall, 36-20 on opening day, wow.

But 36-12 over the past 48 openers.  DOUBLE WOW!

Bottle it, boys, and drink some of that Kool Aid over the other 161 games, and now you're talking!

Actually, 1970 was not the first opener win - the Mets did win their first HOME opener in 1968, a 3-0 win against the SF Giants.  Followed, of course, by Kiners Korner.  Overall, the Mets have won 35 of their 56 home openers, including 34 of their past 47.

Time to make that 35 of 48, Noah!!  LGM!!

NEW MET - IF/OF Levi Michael

Sandy Alderson continued scraping the meat off the bones of seasons minor league ex-high draft picks and signed ex-2011 1.30 pick, IF/OF Levi Michael. who was cut earlier the same day from the Minnesota Twins.

Michael played in the Twins organization for six years, rising to AAA in 2017 for 41-games (.262). His career stat line is: .252/.343/.349/.692.

A friend of mine that has a very popular Twins blog, 'Puckett's Pond', wrote back in 2015:

    Fast forward to 2015, and the Minnesota Twins are still waiting on the Levi Michael they drafted to show up. Having now played three seasons at the professional level, and having just barely advanced to the Double-A rung of the farm system, Michael is teetering dangerously on the bust label. At this point in his career, a utility player at the major league level appears to be the ceiling. While that is not what you want to happen for a first round draft pick, it’s surely more beneficial than the player not making it there at all.

I see this move more for emergency filler. There also is an immediately need for the Binghamton shortstop position if the team doesn't think that Andres Gimenez is ready to play there this winter... err... spring.

Reese Kaplan -- Nationals Are The Team to Beat Again

The only way for the Mets to assure themselves a post-season berth is to unseat the perennial champion Washington Nationals.  While there’s always optimism come opening day, do the Mets have enough to do so?  If you do a position-by-position comparison, it’s going to be an uphill climb.

1^st Base

While the Mets will trot out some combination of Adrian Gonzalez, Wilmer Flores, Dom Smith and/or Jay Bruce to anchor the infield, all the Nationals have is Ryan Zimmerman.  He provided 36 HRs and 108 RBIs last year while hitting .303.  I think that’s a pretty clear edge to the Nationals.

2^nd Base

The Mets have Asdrubal Cabrera.  The Nationals have ex-Met Daniel Murphy.  Moving right along…

Shortstop

Wunderkind Trea Turner in most of a full season provided the Nats with 11 HRs and 45 RBIs while stealing a whopping 46 bases and hitting .284.  The most optimistic among us would do cartwheels if Amed Rosario could approach these numbers but at this point the edge must go to Washington.

3^rd Base

While the Mets brought on board a 3 WAR player in Todd Frazier to replace the ever ailing David Wright, the Nationals have to make do with Anthony Rendon.  All he did last year was hit .301 with 25 HRs and 100 RBIs.  While Frazier’s HR total may indeed be higher, expect the batting average and RBI numbers to be way lower.  Again, edge to the Nationals.

Catcher 

It’s seemingly not often that Washington hits a clinker when it comes to personnel decisions but the former Oriole, Matt Weiters, did not justify their expenditure last year.  Providing a .225 average with 10 HRs and 52 RBIs over the course of 422 ABs already pales next to Travis d’Arnaud’s .244/16/57 in about 76 fewer ABs.  Add in the strong finish and spectacular spring (along with Kevin Plawecki) and finally the Mets have an edge at a position. 

Left Field

Adam Eaton’s first season in DC was a lost one due to injury, but if you go back to his last full season in Chicago he provided a .284/14/59 with 14 stolen bases.  Those are solid numbers but should pale next to a healthy Yoenis Cespedes.  Edge Mets.

Center Field

While Michael Taylor had his best yet season in 2017, his slash line of .271/19/53 with 17 SBs is probably what you might get from a Brandon Nimmo full season.  Of course, Nimmo is merely the 4^th outfielder and will give way to Michael Conforto who hopes to build on his 2017 All Star campaign.  Edge Mets.

Right Field

Which Bryce Harper will the Nationals get this year?  Is he the .330 hitting slugger with 42 HRs and 99 RBIs of 2015 or is he more like the last two years where he didn’t eclipse 30 in HRs and RBIs were in the upper 80s?  If it’s the latter then the edge might go to Jay Bruce in an average year provides 32 HRs and 96 RBIs – both better numbers than Harper – but the batting average is significantly less at .249.  In a walk year for Harper I would expect he’s motivated to come up big time so I’d still give the edge to the Nats’ right fielder.

Starting Rotation

While you could make the argument that Noah Syndergaard has more talent than Max Scherzer, the fact is that for consistency and health you have to give an edge to the 3-time Cy Young Award Winner.

Stephen Strasburg has had a dominant career beset by injuries.  Still, last year the Nat’s number two had spectacular season, going 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA.  For his career he’s at a very impressive 3.07.  However, the Mets number two starter, Jacob deGrom, has an even gaudier 2.98 ERA for his career and his peripheral numbers are comparable.  It’s a push.

Gio Gonzalez also put together his finest campaign in 2017 but for his career he’s a winning pitcher with 3.64 ERA and a mediocre WHIP.  Even with the injuries and the two horrific years in a row Matt Harvey’s career numbers are better but until he proves healthy I’d call this one a push as well.

Tanner Roark was the rare Nats’ pitcher who had a poor year in 2017 by his standards.  His record was positive at 13-11, but his ERA was 4.67 and his WHIP 1.33.  It was nearly 2 full runs worse than his 2016 campaign, but he’s still a respectable 3.41 for his career.  Steven Matz is a work in progress due to the myriad of injuries he’s suffered.  If he could ever put together a full season injury free he would likely be a far superior choice, but at this stage the numbers and health favor Roark. 

The Nationals have something of a wildcard in the 5^th starter slot with A.J. Cole.  He’s 4-7 for his caerer over 22 games (17 starts) with a 4.52 ERA.  That’s not much of a track record on which to project, but then neither does Seth Lugo have much of a record either.  He’s 12-7 over 26 starts with a 3.92 ERA.  If that was the battle I’d give the edge to Lugo, but it’s likely fairer to do a comparison to Jason Vargas who would also get the nod with an edge to the Mets.

Bullpen

Sean Doolittle had a terrific first year as closer for the Nationals with a WHIP of just 1.00 to go along with 21 saves in 22 save opportunities and a 2.40 ERA.  Until Jeurys Familia proves he’s healthy (and after just a single strikeout all spring), you have to give the nod to Washington.

Ryan Madsen, Brandon Kintzler and Joaquin Benoit give the Nats some formidable veteran arms to back up Doolittle.  The Mets counter with the very solid Jerry Blevins, the somewhat erratic AJ Ramos, and one-year-wonder Anthony Swarzak.  That’s pretty much a push.

Bench

The Nationals’ bench starts off quite well with Howie Kendrick and Matt Adams, both professional hitters.  Then it starts to weaken rapidly with an over-the-hill Miguel Montero and role players Wilmer Difo and Brian Goodwin.

The Mets’ bench includes Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Juan Lagares and Phil Evans.  Offensively three are capable.  Defensively Lagares is in a class by himself.  Nimmo likely returns to the bench when Michael Conforto returns from the DL making a pretty strong bench that much more solid.  Edge Mets.

So if you go back and count, you have 4 infield positions with clear edges to the Nats.  Mets get catcher.  Mets get 2 outfield positions but the Bryce Harper/Jay Bruce battle is pretty close.   For starting rotation you get a slight edge to Scherzer over Syndergaard, two pushes, Roark over Matz and the Mets 5^th starter over Cole.  Bullpen gets a slight edge to the Nats and bench an edge to the Mets.  That’s 7 to the Nats (8 if you count Harper), and 5 for the Mets.  For people who think the Mets will get to the postseason, it’s likely going to have to be by way of the wildcard.

Minor Mets Moves

The Mets released - 

    LHP Ben Griset - 2017:  AA-Bing  35-G, 4-1, 2.39

    IF Vinny Siena - 2017:  A-Col/A+-St. Lucie  219-AB  .169

    OF Arnaldo Berrios - 2017/A-A+-AAA  281-AB  .185

They also announced that infielder/catcher Jose Maria (2017: low-A/Brooklyn  145-AB  .221) has retired.

We wish them well.