Reese Kaplan -- A Trio of Possible Quality Bullpen Options

No one who is a Mets fan can't fail to understand the impact the entire 2023 season's loss of Edwin Diaz had on the outcome of games and the resulting sub .500 standing achieved by the Mets.  By all accounts Diaz is completely healthy and ready to dominate anyone who has the misfortune of facing him.

After Diaz the next up on the chart is Brooks Raley who finished the 2023 season not as a "Who?" but as a real asset.  His 1-2 and 3 save record is not how you evaluate the quality of what he did.  For that take a look at his 2023 ERA of just 2.80 with 61 Ks in under 55 IP.  He was the real deal after securing him in free agency from Tampa.  He's the ultimate late developer type of pitcher and a bargain at the price they paid for him.

Unfortunately, after that it's pretty bleak in the New York Mets bullpen.  I won't aggravate you with a name-by-name recitation of the many relievers on the roster but none of them have a record that is something to make you say, "Whoa!" in a good way.  Drew Smith has been more good than bad despite his less appealing results in 2023.  

After that it's a crap shoot of relievers who have a tool -- velocity, motion, trick pitches or potential -- but none of the people currently within the locker room are going to fill you with confidence setting up for Raley and Diaz respectively.

If you follow the various news reports or wild conjecture the Mets are apparently in quest of some notable arms after realizing the sum total of the 2024 relievers on the roster will not provide a solid transition to the more established and successful late inning hurlers.  

The names that have come up most recently are currently unemployed free agents Adam Ottavino, Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek.  There are others out there, but this trio is getting the majority of attention.

We all know Ottavino from his seasons in the Mets dugout.  He's been reliable, better in 2022 than in 2023, but at his age and track record he's certainly someone no one would object to seeing in a Mets uniform once again.  He's likely looking for at minimum a two-year contract to help ensure the latter stage of his career towards his retirement and given what he's produced from the 7th inning role he appears to be a legitimate option.  He can pitch in New York and has done so both for the Mets and the Yankees. 

(After writing this, Ottavino signed with the Mets for just one year, $4.5 million.  His turned down option would have cost the Mets $500,000 a year in deferred salary for six years (2025-30), plus $1 million in 2031, so this deal clears out what would have eaten up some precious salary cap space in 2024-31.)

The less well known options both have Astros roots.  Hector Neris is good for a career 3.24 ERA and last season was even better.  He's allegedly looking for two years or more at a broad salary range of $7 million to $11 million per year.  He's not a closer but is a premier quality setup guy.  

Ryne Stanek is a less costly option with a career ERA of 3.45.  He's a borderline 100 mph pitcher who has that indefinable "something" that makes you feel he's really more than the numbers alone suggest.  Given the mid velocity from the left side from Raley, the right handed fireballer Stanek might indeed be appealing for the Mets.  He earned under $4 million and likely could be secured for $5 million or less.  That's cheaper than Neris and Ottavino would be and the output is certainly impressive.  

For now folks are frustrated by the inaction by David Stearns who appears to be waiting out the remaining free agents whose prices might drop the closer to Spring Training it gets without them having an employer.  There's validity to that strategy, but at the same time you keep watching guys like Aroldis Chapman, Robert Stephenson and others inking new deals while you sit on your hands and keep waiting.  

(Again, the signing of Ottavino after this column was drafted goes a long way towards shoring up the bullpen).

Tom Brennan: A) Jeremiah = Florial? B) Mets' Mr. October, Minors Style

Jeremiah = Florial?

Maybe you noted the following late December Yankees trade:

The Yankees added pitching depth by acquiring RHP Cody Morris from the Guardians in exchange for OF Estevan Florial. Morris, in 2022-23, is 1-2 with a 3.41 ERA with 32 Ks in 32 IP.

Florial would have garnered more in the trade, but his Achilles heel as a hitter has been his high strikeout rate.  He has good power, has hit pretty well, and has base stealing speed.

Jeremiah Jackson, acquired by the Mets in 2023 for Dominic Leone, had a very solid season, with fine power and RBIs (22 HRs and 80 RBIs in 119 games), and steals, batting average and OBP.  His production has been similar to Florial in the minors at the same age - and with a very similar high K rate.

How similar? 

JJ's minor league Ks, though, total 448 in 1,551 plate appearances, or a K every 3.46 times up.  Florial has been up to the plate in the minors twice as much and Ks every 3.44 times up.  

Now THAT is similar.

Jackson is 28 months younger than Florial, so while Florial has progressed further, Jackson has more time to progress.

So...Jackson who is a righty hitting shortstop etc., has a real chance of making the majors, as has Florial, a lefty hitting outfielder. 

Florial hasn't played much in the majors, with limited success, most likely due to his K issues. 

Jackson, one could therefore speculate, could have similar (or perhaps slightly better) MLB success to that of Florial within the next few years, as shortstop is a more valuable position.

Jackson could switch to the outfield too - he's played 2nd, SS, 3rd, and LF and CF, so he has greater defensive versatility.

If JJ can improve his strikeout rate, his career ceiling should be higher. 

If the Mets lack roster room a year from now, JJ might be a fine trade chip.

Two seemingly equivalent players, with Jeremiah Jackson seeming to me to have greater upside.

He is currently ranked the Mets' 22nd prospect.

I'm looking forward very much to his career progression in 2024.

Ks drop, he could be top 10 this time next year.

MISTER OCTOBER, MINORS STYLE

Reggie (Jackson, not Smith) was the man in 1977. 

Three swings, 3 mammoth blasts in the concluding WS game?

Mr. October.

Of the Mets' 6 top prospect hitters, who is the closest to being the Mets' Minors Mr. October, based on career playoff results?  I like the question, since performing well in post-season play is invaluable.  Think Derek Jeter, besides Reggie Jackson.

Jett Williams: 4 for 15, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 8 walks.  Pretty danged good. 

Drew Gilbert: 5 for 17, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 walk.  Solid.

Luisangel Acuna: 10 for 62, 1 double, no HR, 2 RBI, 5 BBs.   Just Bad.

Ronny Mauricio: 4-14, 1 double, no HR, no RBI, 1 walk. Solid, brief.

Kevin Parada: 10 for 24, 1 double, no HR, 6 RBI, 2 walks. Excellent.

Ryan Clifford: 0 for 0, 0 walks, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 games.  Untested.

(One dark horse, Stanley Consuegra, who rocketed 16 HRs in 49 road games for Brooklyn last year, was 3 for 11 and 1 walk in the 2022 playoffs, with a double, HR and 4 RBIs.  May I at least call him Mr. September?)

A.  Winner of Met Minors Mr. October?  

JETT WILLIAMS. 

12 for 23 on base?  Wow.

B.  Close Runner-Up?

KEVIN PARADA.

C.  Winner of the Dave Winfield Mr. May Award?

LUISANGEL ACUNA.

All of the above is, of course, meaningless if the Mets never make the playoffs again.  Sometimes, this team makes you wonder if no future playoff games is a possibility.  Or, at least, say, not until 2050.  

In 2023, Edwin got hurt, the plan got blown up, the competition is fierce.  

Atlanta, LAD, you can bet your bottom dollar they will be in the playoffs virtually on an annual basis. 

The Citifield stadium lights, meanwhile, shut off in Queens for several months after game #162 as a pretty steadfast rule, for an obvious reason.  NGE Syndrome (Not Good Enough).

And the Mets ride off annually into the Canyon of Zeros. 

MLB TOP 100 WAS ANNOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT:

One homegrown prospect (Jett Williams 45). Also in the top 100: Gilbert (53); Acuna (66); Clifford (97).

UNCLE OTTO IS COMING BACK!

The Mets are signing right-hander Adam Ottavino back on a one-year, $4.5MM contract. Welcome back.

My Spin - Relievers

Most say the Mets need relievers. 

I disagree with this. 

After yesterday's pick up of Adam Ottavino, I think it's time to pack up the truck.

I talked "back in the day" with a former college and baseball manager. He told me that the most talented pitchers at that level ALWAYS are groomed to be starters.

And their starters become relievers when they prove they can't go three times around the lineup without blowing up.

This was back when starters averaged over seven innings an outing. Today's coddled rotations are pulled way before this so that "third time around" may be more like a "respectable showing in the third time around".

Then and only then are when relievers are born, first starting with who throws faster. That player starts to be groomed as a future closer.

Reese Kaplan said in an earlier post that if the Mets spend more, they will wind up paying $2.10 for every dollar spent.

Ask yourself this... would Steve Cohen pay $2.10 per share for a stock worth $1.00 a share?

In my opinion, the only chance this team will have any degree of success in 2024 is to have multiple relievers that can go more than one inning.

The projected rotation will seldom go seven innings.

The secret of the 2024 pen is in current starters and prospect relievers like Nate Lavender.

 That's just the fact, Jack.

You know my prospect rating system.

RED PROSPECTS are players I expect to do major time in the majors.

BLUE PROSPECTS are on the cusp and could develop some day into major league players.

The rest of the minor leaguers are steak knives.

I current have none classified as red.

I do have six as blue and their projected 2024 levels should be:

AAA/MLB - Nate Lavender

AA/AAA - Wilkin Ramos

AA/AAA - Paul Gervase

AAA - Daniel Juarez

AA - Dylan Tebrake

A/A+ - Eli Ankeney

Tom Brennan - Time for a Nice Tebrake? & Braves’ Pitcher-Laden Top Prospects

Dylan Tebrake Photo From His Creighton Days

I love tea, and I love tea breaks.  

How about you, old chap?

Dylan Tebrake should get some love from we old Mets fan chaps, too.

The 6’3”, 225 righty was a dazzling 21-5 with Creighton before the Mets grabbed him in the 8th round in 2022.

A few IL stints in 2023 cost him 6 weeks and limited his 2023 pro innings, but he finished out the season pitching, so hopefully his baseball health is much better in 2024. 

60 innings in relief in 2024 would be nice.

Tebrake in 2022 and 2023 got in 22 games, fired 36 innings, went 2-1, 2.27 ERA, with 55 Ks and NO homers allowed, and briefly pitched in AA.

Apparently he throws 95. Not bad.

From Creighton University’s web sit as it concerns Tebrake:

2021 (Sophomore)

• In his second year as the Bluejays’ ace, Tebrake went a perfect 8-0 in 12 starts (72.2 innings) with 75 strikeouts while holding opponents to an .220 average in 72.2 innings of work. 
• Dylan was named BIG EAST Pitcher of the Year and First Team All-BIG EAST after posting a 1.52 ERA with a 5-0 record in six starts against conference opponents. 
• In his 41.1 innings pitched in the BIG EAST, Tebrake punched out 46 and permitted an opponent average of just .171.
• Tebrake was nearly untouchable in April, not allowing a run in his first three starts of the month with just eight hits allowed to 17 strikeouts across that 19.1 inning span. 
• Dylan earned BIG EAST Pitcher of the Week after throwing a seven-inning complete game shutout on April 23 at Georgetown with eight strikeouts, yielding only three base runners.
• Tebrake closed out April with another career performance in a home win over St. John’s (April 30), allowing just one run behind a career-bests 8.1 innings pitched and nine strikeouts. 
• Dylan tossed 8.0 shutout innings with six strikeouts in a win over Seton Hall on May 14.

Why not anticipate Tebrake as a Mets reliever by 2025, or even later this year?  If all breaks well for Dylan, a 2024 Tebrake debut can’t be ruled out.

It would boost hot and iced tea sales at Citifield, no doubt.  Mets fans certainly need a Tebrake.

Moving on....

METS NEED PITCHERS, BUT HAVE MANY HITTING PROSPECTS

BRAVES, MEANWHILE, ARE LOADED WITH PITCHING PROSPECTS

Here are the 17 pitchers (68%) in their Top 25 prospects (last updated in November - and especially note their top 5 are all pitchers).  Seems like more of what we see too much of...perfect Braves execution…a lethal current major league line up, already strong pitching....and a ton of pitching prospects to continually feed their team.

#1: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (in MLB Top 100)

#2: RHP Hurston Waldrep (in MLB Top 100)

#3: RHP Spencer Schwallenbach

#4: RHP JR Ritchie

#5: RHP Owen Murphy

#8: RHP Drue Hackenberg

#10: RHP Jhancarlos Lara

#11: RHP Cade Kuehler

#12: RHP Blake Burkhalter

#15: LHP Dylan Dodd

#16: RHP Seth Keller

#17: RHP Daysbel Hernandez

#19: RHP Dieder Fuentes

#20: RHP Allan Winans

#21: RHP Garrett Baumann

#24: LHP Luis De Avila

#25: RHP Hayden Harris 

We may like our Mets pitching prospects - but the Mets have fewer, and NONE are in the MLB Top 100.  

Will the Mets EVER catch the Braves? Perhaps in your great-grandkids' lifetimes.

Reese Kaplan -- The Oddest Acquisition by David Stearns Thus Far

When the Mets bid but missed out on Yoshinubo Yamamoto, you at least felt they were trying to compete but didn't win the bid.  On Shoehei Ohtani stories are circulating that they never received a call from his management team, hence you wonder why the Mets did not press a bit harder.  Still, with the injury he has now and the record setting contract he received it is not a missed opportunity that will cause major heartache for the fans.  

Then came the influx of new players like the seemingly never healthy and off a horrific season Luis Severino.  When he's good he's very good but when he's bad he's not exactly better.  

Various other additions like Joey Wendle, Zach Short and a myriad of unheralded relief pitchers all felt like fringe acquisitions rather than key pieces.  Still, given the injury histories of a great many players and the somewhat barren bench and bullpen it was understandable but didn't check off the box about a key talent that would help push the team up and over the .500 level of competitiveness.  

In addition, I'd throw in the trade that brought Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor to New York as well.  Houser could be a healthy addition superior to the inconsistency of other options the Mets have tried towards the back of the rotation, or he could evolve into a long reliever.  Taylor and DJ Stewart form a credible if not spectacular 4th and 5th outfielders for the ball club.  

The one where it became a positive head scratcher was the contract extended to defensive whiz and offensive whiff, Harrison Bader.  No one is denying the elite skills he brings to center field.  The Mets have kind of run the gamut of great, good, adequate and awful in that position in the past.  The story goes that with an unknown commodity in the recovering Starling Marte, the acquisition of Bader enables the Mets to slide Brandon Nimmo to left field and between the three starters out there the club would be able to have a solid defensive team once the ball is lined, popped up or hammered over the infield dirt.

Anyone who has watched Bader over the years knows that the real issue is what he can provide with the bat.  Looking at the numbers suggest it is not pretty.  For his career he's just a .243 hitter with a little base running speed and a little bit of power.  He's expected on a 162 game basis to provide 15 HRs and 55 RBIs along with 20 SBs.  The problem is he simply doesn't play that much.  Between injuries and benching for his offensive liability he mostly is a part time player.  The longest haul he's provided is 427 ABs and that was back in 2018 for the Cardinals.  Since then it's been a steady downhill total of at-bats which makes one wonder exactly what the Mets expect of the man.

To be fair, he's got a pretty dramatic platoon split.  Being a right handed batter, as you would expect he does much better against southpaws than when facing righthanders.  For his career he is closer to a .300 hitter when a lefty is on the mound.  Against righties, well, let's just say we'd wish for the offensive exploits of Juan Lagares instead.  Bader is just a couple of steps above the Mendoza line.  

It would suggest, therefore, that a platoon arrangement with Bader starting against lefties and handling late inning defensive replacement and pinch running duties would make sense, but consider that the Mets forked over $10.5 million ($9.5 in salary and $1 million in signing bonus) which suggests they feel he's going to play quite a bit more against right handed pitching as well.  It is possible they'd move Nimmo back to center field on the days when Bader would be over matched against a strong right handed pitcher, but then is DJ Stewart or Tyrone Taylor the real answer to vaulting the team back into contention?

Then there is the happiness expressed by free agent to be, Pete Alonso.  He and Bader were college teammates and he viewed this move quite favorably.  There surely is a value in keeping your cleanup hitter with a positive impression of the organization when it's entirely possible he will be seeking greener pastures in 2025.  

Everyone here hopes that the defense-first approach taken by POBO David Stearns reaps rewards for the ball club but scoring runs may be as much (if not more) of a struggle than it was under Billy Eppler's roster last year.  Strong sophomore campaigns from Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez could make the Bader question moot.  A comeback of the year season from Starling Marte could, too.  For now, however, it was not a huge amount of money but even a moderate amount that may or may not have been well spent.    

Tom Brennan - Two Young, Off-the-Radar, Rising Mets Minors Infielders

"HEY! I SEE TWO GUYS SOON TO BE ON THE TOP 30 LIST"

Good morning.

Not everyone is in the Top 30 - or in Brennan's Top 35 Productive Prospects List, for that matter - but some can still have real promise.

I can think of two such infield guys right off.

Both lived for a while in 2023 in a deflationary environment - Brooklyn - which squeezes many hitters' stats (some, like Jett Williams, breeze through Brooklyn - but not many.

Let's look at two of them:

1) Junior Tilien

In 2021, international signee Junior (bonus: $185,000) skipped the DSL and headed straight to the FCL, which few DSL signings do.  He struggled, hitting .165 in 32 games.

 - But no DSL?  That's impressive.

In 2022, Junior made baseball news when, as a 19 year old, he smacked 3 homers in a game for St Lucie.  He ended up with 12 HRs and a .248 average there in 84 games.

In 2023, the 20 year old, 6'1", 170 pound Tilien started out in St Lucie and finished in Brooklyn.  For the Lucites, he hit an OK .251.  For Brooklyn, in 33 games, .228.  Remember, he was age 20.

Speed is not part of his game, and he split time between SS, 2nd, and 3rd, and did OK at the latter 2 positions, not so well at SS.  Let's see what he does with the glove in 2024.

In the last 2 seasons, Junior has had 648 at bats, 37 doubles, 2 triples, and 21 HRs, with 91 RBIs.  Solid.  He's also walked a solid 67 times, while fanning 151 times in 174 games.  I like K rates well under 1 per game, a relative rarity in the Mets minors.

Regarding his average, he played in Brooklyn and St Lucie in 2023, and hit .261 on the road and .226 on the road.  Sounds like a familiar home and away split, right?

My guess is at age 21 in 2024, he accelerates and thrusts himself well up into the top 30/35 prospects and has a big year in Brooklyn and Binghamton, unless they feel he has already done his penance in Brooklyn and move him directly to AA.

My guess is he will be a power hitting 3rd baseman in the pros, with power.

2) William Lugo 

$475,000 bonus says they liked him a lot to pay him that much.

9 months older than Junior, Lugo will play 2024 as a 22 year old.

Brooklyn?  In 2023, 54 games, .267/.351/.465!  Not bad.

On the road?   In 52 games, he had a paltry slash line of .208/.283/.310. Go figure - a guy who actually hit better in Brooklyn!

Career, he has been up 1,105 times, with solid power: 55 doubles, 5 triples, 32 HRs and 152 RBIs. But just .233, with 307 Ks in 307 games - BUT just 92 Ks in 107 games in 2023, so that is real improvement.

He had a good defensive season, with just 5 errors in 42 games at SS, 7 in 47 games at 3rd base, and none in 11 games at 1st base.  Surprising is his shortstop play, as he is listed at 6'2", 215.  Not much speed, but he has swiped 13 of 22 in his career.

So...we'll see in 2024 if he is ready to make a major step forward.  Presumably, he will be headed to AA.  

Gotta elevate that average - the infield competition is fierce in the Mets minors.

Both Junior and William need to up the number of games they play in 2024.  Then, I surmise that their 2024 offensive numbers will really impress, and both will shoot into the Mets Top 30.  I am guessing both will be ranked in the 11-20 range at this time next year.  So, keep your eyes on both.

I wrote a lot about the Mets' subpar minors hitting last year.  Sometimes, though, a handful of weak hitters can submerge an organization's overall stats.  Jaylen Palmer and Omar De Los Santos ate two of them - they had very high combined numbers in three categories:

One good one was steals ,where they combined to steal 67 bases.

Two bad ones?

327 Ks in 220 games.  THAT is an occupational hazard.

.188 combined average.

,188 in a combined 756 at bats will suppress an organization's overall stats, no doubt.  What would the minors hitting stats have looked like if they hit .288 instead of .188?

Omar turns 25 in August, and seems like a failed experiment.

Palmer turns 24 in August and has played professionally since 2018 - ditto.

Both will only be viable in my mind if they somehow figured out during this off-season how to fan 40% to 50% less.  That seems highly unlikely - can you think of any player who has done so?  I can't envision either playing much in 2024.  Why take at bats away from the many other minors players who don't have similar K problems?

The duo seems to mimic the career of Champ Stuart, a former Mets minors speedster who stole 147 bases but hit just .219 because he fanned 633 times in 491 games.  Which actually was a better K rate than either that of Omar or Palmer.  He petered out in AA.

Reese Kaplan -- Who is the Third Man for the New York Mets?

For a great many years the position of third base -- the hot corner -- was frigid cold for anyone the Mets chose to trot out there to man the spot alongside the shortstop.  The list of wannabes and never wases is frighteningly long.  

The first relatively long term solution was the lackluster Wayne Garrett, he of the lifetime batting average of just .239 who in the championship year of 1973 did his best ever work with a .256/16/58 stat line.  The All Star Game was watched comfortably from the sofa in his home. 

As years progressed the club continued to try people big and small, slim and not so much, fast and slow.  It really wasn't until Howard Johnson arrived from the Tigers that for the first time ever Mets fans could hold their heads up in the discussion about there where Brooks Robinson once played.  Yes, he did have a corked bat, but between his home runs and stolen bases he at least made the games exciting.

It took quite a few pages off the annual calendar until David Wright saw the light of day and if it wasn't for his myriad of health problems he would have gotten more serious consideration for a plaque in Cooperstown.  He truly spoiled Mets fans for what the third baseman could provide to the team in the middle of the batting order and while behaving in a manner in which tabloid headlines were about what he did with his stick and not off-the-field pecadilloes that were best left under wraps.

Since his departure the Mets once again are on the hot corner carousel with players like J.D. Davis, Eduardo Excobar and other inconsistent performers being given a shot and then removed from there due to batting slumps, defensive struggles or health.  With the coming season it had appeared that Ronny Mauricio was going to offer himself up as a legitimate threat for someone in the lineup including third base, but his ACL has shelved him likely until 2025.

So that evolution due to injury has led us to round two of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos.  Baty had a reputation for batting average, power and at least adequate defense throughout his stellar progression through the minor league system.  Unfortunately, the player the team saw in 2023 seemed to be something totally different, struggling in just about every aspect of the game.  His rookie season included extended benching and even a demotion back to Syracuse.  Yet if the 2024 season opened today it's presumed the job is his to lose, no matter what.

As a failsafe the Mets acquired Joey Wendle, an all around utility player in the mold of a Luis Guillorme but with a somewhat more potent bat.  He wouldn't embarrass the team in occasional starts subbing for Baty or Lindor or McNeil, but no one is expecting him at this juncture to be a starter on a competitive team.  

So that brings us to the little discussed Mark Vientos as a Plan B.  As Mike Steffanos recently pointed out, the sub Mendoza hitting Vientos who was Krazy-Glued to the bench for most of 2023 until September did crank it up a bit there with a .230 average and 6 HRs.  If it's a six-month season, you're looking at 36 HR potential.  That's nothing to sneeze at.  It's also possible that with regular insertion into the lineup that batting average would increase 30 or more points which would make him a highly credible hitter.

Unfortunately, Mark Vientos played third base much like I did...and that's more for the blooper reels than the highlight reels.  Consequently they are talking about Vientos being a young DH to ensure his playing time, but already they are on the platoon bandwagon which would again relegate Vientos to perhaps 2 starts per week as he is right handed whereas DJ Stewart and others hit from the left side.  It often seems the Mets can't help shooting themselves in the foot, particularly when it comes to the Designated Hitter.  

No one would be happier to see Brett Baty turn into a regular capable of starting on most teams, just as folks would be ecstatic to see Vientos evolve into a middle of the order DH.  Whether or not you have confidence the Mets will allow either to happen is still unknown and uncertain, but with the ongoing inertia to improving the lineup it would appear the chances of both are actually a bit more realistic than a typical and cynical Mets fan might have thought when 2023 baseball ended.  

Paul Articulates – A closer look at Mike Vasil

As we steadily approach the February 14th date when pitchers and catchers first report to spring training in St. Lucie, it is time to look at some of the more intriguing prospects that will be trying to make their case for cracking the major league roster.  So much has been said in Mack’s Mets about the starting pitching staff, the bullpen, and the solid group of prospect pitchers coming up through the high minors.  No better place than the pitching to take a closer look at #9 on the NY Mets prospect list, Mike Vasil.

Mike Vasil pitched at Boston College Prep in Dorchester, MA and was very highly touted during his senior year.  How high you ask?  70 major league scouts attended one of his high school starts.  Not being one to disappoint, Vasil threw a perfect game that day. In his high school career, Mike went 22-4 with a 1.06 earned run average and recorded 217 strikeouts in 191 innings.  Everyone expected him to be a high draft pick.  However, after having some arm trouble he decided to forego the draft an attend college at the University of Virginia.

The beginning of his career at UVA was somewhat of a struggle, but by his junior year, Vasil had begun to show much of what the scouts had been excited about.  He had a solid year in 2021, and particularly impressed in a college world series outing against Texas where he struck out eight in seven innings while only giving up one run.  That year he was drafted in the eighth round (8.232) by the Mets and assigned to the Florida Complex League (FCL) where he posted a 1.29 ERA.

In 2022, his first full year with the Mets’ franchise, Vasil move quickly through the ranks, playing for the FCL Mets, the St. Lucie Mets (low A), and the Brooklyn Cyclones (high A).  That year he pitched 124 innings, recorded 138 strikeouts, and compiled a 4.65 ERA across the three clubs.  In 2023 he started the year with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (51 IP, 57K, 3.71 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and moved on to the Syracuse Mets (AAA) by mid-season.  There, he threw another 73 innings, posting a 5.30 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 81 strikeouts.

One might look at the ERA numbers and question whether this is a dominant pitcher, but that has to be taken into context.  In just over two years in the Mets’ organization, Vasil has moved through four different levels of ball to the highest level in the minor league system.  His mid-90’s four-seam fastball with high RPM has good rise and he can also throw the curveball, slider, and changeup as solid secondary pitches.  His control has always been a strong point, and the Mets’ staff has encouraged him to be a little more aggressive with hitters instead of trying to nibble at the corners.  MLB.com gives him the following grades for his pitches: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50.

My expectation this year is for Mike Vasil to continue his upward trajectory.  He continues to work with the player development staff to improve his pitches, and the state of the art pitching lab in St. Lucie should provide him with valuable feedback.  Mike Steffanos wrote yesterday about this.  Vasil will compete for a slot on the MLB team this spring, but my projection is that he will begin the season in AAA and then see action in New York later in the season.  I would love to see him come up as a long reliever to get his feet under him rather than being thrown to the wolves as a starter.  With so much uncertainty around the ability of the current Mets’ starting rotation to limit runs, there should be many opportunities to get the young pitchers like Vasil some 2-3 inning stretches against MLB hitters to facilitate their transition.

Tom Brennan - Summary: 2021 to 2023 Draft Year Mets Results

 

  

Below, I left out guys that were drafted whom I think will not likely be MLB players. Lots of good to excellent draftees left past those in 2021 and 2022.

2021 Good Guys are the following:

1st round Kumar Rocker was not signed. He is now the Rangers’ 9th prospect. The Mets drafted Kevin Parada in 2022 after not signing Kumar.

2nd round, P Calvin Ziegler: bone chip and leg issue limited him to one perfect, 3 K inning in 2023. Expect big year out of the 21 year old in 2024.

3rd round, P Dominic Hamel - finished really strong in AA. 160 Ks in 124 innings in 2024, and 312 in 246 career innings.

4th round, 1B JT Schwartz - solid hitter, not Pete Alonso.

5th round, P Christian Scott - breakthrough 2024 in AA; future career as a back-end MLB starter.

8th round, 6'5" righty P Mike Vasil - ought to pitch for Mets in 2024.

10th round, lefty Keyshawn Askew - Traded to Rays, he had a solid pitching year in A and AA, at 3.97 and 130 Ks in 97 IP. Not in Ray’s top 30.

11th round, S/H OF Rowdey Jordan - Possible future MLB back up OF.

13th round, IF/OF Matt Rudick - best player in 2023 in Eastern League thru early June in 2023, then hurt. A  possible Mets 2024 call up if needed.

14th round, P Nate Lavender - 6'2" lefty had very solid AA/AAA reliever in 2023. Most likely will pitch a lot in the Mets pen in 2024.

15th round, 5'7" IF Wyatt Young - fine 2022 in AA/AAA, regressed in 2023.  

16th round, righty P Trey McLaughlin had a very solid 2023 season.

A fine 2021 draft, except for that first Rocker round. That pick could have been one of these 3 excellent guys drafted just after the Mets pick: Brady House, or Andrew Painter, or Harry Ford. A risky first round Kumar move by the Mets, chasing the shiny object, put a damper on things.

2022 Good Guys follow (if drafted out of High School, so noted):

1 (11): Kevin Parada, C:  First full year in 2023 solid, not great. Strikeouts on the high side. Will he WOW or disappoint us in 2024?

1 (14): Jett Williams, SS, HS: On-base and base stealing teenage machine. Walks and HBP with great frequency. Future star?

2 (52): Blade Tidwell, RHP: Solid progress in 2023. Fireballer.

2C (75): Nick Morabito, OF, HS: .306, 21 steals in 57 games. 65 speed.

4 (119): Jacob Reimer, 3B, HS: Nice batting for 19 year old in 2023. 

6 (179): Tyler Stuart, RHP: 6’9” righty was great in 2023. 

7 (209): Jonah Tong, RHP, HS: 21 IP, 38 Ks, 6.00 in 2023.

8 (239): Dylan Tebrake, RHP: stellar relief, finished 2023 in AA. 55 Ks in 36 career IP, 2.27. 

11 (329): Rhylan Thomas, OF: .328 hitter in 2023, fielding award. Low power, very low K. Great first full season.  

12 (359): Paul Gervase, RHP: 6’10” reliever, 96Ks in 57 IP, 2.05 ERA. 

20 (599): Eli Ankeney, LHP: $100,000. Pitched well in 2023. 27 outings, mostly for Brooklyn, 3.07, 55 Ks in 44 IP.

Finally, the 2023 Draft?

Hardly any of the 2023 draftees played, so I will defer on details here. 

Seems the Mets draft grade was in the “B” range, as per writers who assigned an overall draft grade. I’ll take a B when the first pick is # 32.

MY FINAL SERIES CONCLUSION:

2012 thru 2020 drafts were fairly decent for hitters, poor for pitchers.

Looking at the names above for 2021 and 2022, those two years’ seem superior to those of the 2012-2020 period. AND 2023 got a “B”.

BUT...Baseball America just came out with its Top 100 MLB prospect list.  

In BA's list, Jett Williams (drafted) is ranked #30 - impressive.  

Next is international signing Ronny Mauricio at # 87, and then Drew Gilbert (acquired in trade) at # 91.  Then, trade acquisitions Acuna and Clifford both fell just outside of the BA Top 100.

So...

In BA's top 120 prospects, the Mets have JUST ONE player drafted by the Mets:

Our very own Jett Williams.  

That is simply a damning indictment of the Mets' drafting, with of course the caveat that the Mets drafted the currently very highly ranked Pete Crow Armstrong, too, and would still have his services for 2024 in Queens had they not dealt him away for baubles and trinkets.  

Even if they kept Crow, though, their draft results would be weak.  

1st round out of H.S. Baty and 2nd round out of H.S. Vientos, their two most prominent recently promoted draftees, are not close to the value of a Corbin Carroll.  

In fact, if Baty and Vientos were somehow snuck back into the minors rankings, and what is currently known of Baty and Vientos from their MLB play to date served as added info for the BA prospect rankers to consider, would either be in the Top 100 now?    

I'd say Baty maybe...Vientos unlikely.

Mets drafts have been horrendous when it comes to producing MLB talent.

Only 2nd round Pete and 12th round Jeff have excelled.

So, unless you go all the way back to Conforto, who was drafted in the first round of 2014, and Nimmo, who was drafted in the first round of 2011.  And if you draft hitters high up in the first round, they should be a near certainty to be successful in the majors eventually. 

Heck, the Nats have not re-signed former 1st rounder Dom Smith, instead opting for Joey Gallo. 

Gallo hit .177 in 2023, but with 21 HRs in 280 at bats. Dom was up 736 times the past 2 years with a scant 63 RBIs, and has a very substandard career WHIP of 0.9. End result on drafting Dom Smith in the first round (11th overall)? A failure, as was the first round draft of Cecchini (12th overall). 

Accomplished players like Lucas Giolito, Corey Seager, Michael Wacha,  Marcus Stroman, Aaron Judge, and Hunter Renfroe were available to the Mets and were drafted shortly after those 2 Mets picks. (To be balanced, I need to note that some other teams’ 2012 and 2013 picks shortly after those two were nabbed by the Mets never made it to the big leagues). Still, to have 2 straight Mets first half of the first round hitter picks have an accumulated career WAR of ZERO is a disaster.

This page allows you to see Mets Top 30 prospects as per MLB for any given year.  Here is 2020's list but you can browse through any year's Mets Top 30 there very easily.  Just select the year. 

Read it and you might gag a bit: 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/mets/ 

Remember, a dearth of drafted talent eventually making a MLB impact results in spending hundreds of millions on free agents as the Mets try to remain competitive.

BUT…ARE YOU INTERESTED?

Ryne Stanek and Hector Neris? 

Mets reportedly are showing some interest.

 

But…who cares if Cohen and Stearns like them…are you interested??

That’s it, I‘m done.