Your Mets first game observations?
Mets lost 10-5 in yesterday’s televised opening game.
Thoughts and observations?
Mack’s Mets – the premier site for information on the New York Mets talent pipeline and dialogue on Mets prospects, Mets news, and Mets opinions.
2/24/24
Tom Brennan - A New Mets Stat: MIOBEOST…..and are the Mets CURSED?
Some teams, and some players like ex-Met Tom Szapucki, miss lots of games
A key new stat that has significant correlation to teams' relative chances of making the playoffs, and one in which the Mets usually rate very high:
MIOBEOST
“Major Injuries Occurring Before End Of Spring Training”
This year?
Already injured are David Peterson, Ronny Mauricio, Kodai Senga, with over 4 weeks to go before the end of spring training.
Last Year?
Edwin Diaz, Jose Quintana, Justin Verlander, Montes de Oca. Of course, more followed during the season.
But other teams did worse.
The AP last fall noted that in 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers lost the most days of players on the injured list this season at 2,465, while the San Francisco Giants had the most placements at 46.
The number of days lost on the injured list rose 6.1% to 44,461 from 41,916, but placements dropped 0.7% to 848 to 854.
There were 983 placements for 43,513 lost days in 2021, the first full season following a schedule curtailed to 60 games because of the pandemic.
Could find the comparable Mets numbers….sorry.
But…it feels to me like, year after year, the Mets are cursed:
Edwin Diaz’s freak and utterly bizarre injury kept the Mets out of the playoffs in 2023, and entirely blew up the fairly high risk Mets 2023 plan of adding aging veterans for a slug-out with the Braves. A healthy Edwin, Verlander, Scherzer, and Quintana, as it turns out, might have added 20 wins and still resulted in the Mets falling short of the Braves slightly for the division, but could have brought the Mets the crown. Instead, Edwin’s freak ACL tear was the first huge tear in the ultimate tear-down of the season.
CURSED? METHINKS YES. MAYBE YOU THINK, AHH, COINCIDENCE.
Today, while reading Reese’s 7:00 AM article, was actually the first time I watched the video of Edwin Diaz’s injury. Before today, I never did. I knew it would be too upsetting. Sickening. The announcer kept saying, Oh, no…oh, no…oh, no. My thoughts exactly, about Diaz, who was my beacon of hope for this Mets team. Bizarrely struck down. No one else in the WBC “Classic” was, and of course, it wasn’t a baseball injury, it was a bizarre, freak, celebration injury. It was a “Mets injury”.
It leads me to conclude:
This franchise is cursed.
Someone in 1986. struck a deal with the devil then to secure that crown. I wish they’d told us they did that, as I would have dropped the Mets and done something more productive.
Unconvinced? What about the death of Brian Cole, who easily could have been the Mets best offensive player ever, even better than David Wright, as this 2013 SI headline indicates:
THE BEST PLAYER YOU NEVER SAW:
IN CLUBHOUSES FROM CLASS A TO THE MAJORS, EVEN SUPERSTARS SUCH AS ALBERT PUJOLS STILL SPEAK IN AWE OF THE PROMISE OF BRIAN COLE
Think of those near-miss Mets teams from 2000-2007. The Mets May have won 4 championships in those years with Cole as the every-day star outfielder.
Now, in 2024, we can’t even get to the first spring training game without their ace being injured and opening the season on the IL for who-knows-how-long with a shoulder injury; perhaps their best rookie of 2024, and very possibly a line up regular, missing all of 2024 with yet another freaky ACL injury; and Peterson likely missing 30% to 50% of the season after freak hip surgery.
Hope gets ripped out of my chests, truth be told.
Cursed.
David Wright? Freak back disability. No? Name me a list of players whose backs shortened their careers in the past 25 years. Then divide by 30 teams. Then screen out the marginal and mediocre players. Who else is on that list but David Wright.
Hey, Mets fans, you love superior pitching? OK, I’ll give you a guy who will win TWO Cy Young’s. But here’s the catch…he’ll start all his games, but average 10 wins. Then he’ll fall apart physically. He, of course, will be…A MET.
Sometimes, there is Mets mercy. Divine intervention, perhaps.
Satan doesn’t want to make it too obvious. Case in point?
Mets’ best slugger ever? Pete Alonso.
So what happens to him? His truck is hit by another driver at high speed and Pete’s truck rolls over 3 times. Pete walks away from a near-death experience. Iron Man that he is, he shrugged off what had to have been whiplash and plays like nothing happened. Thank heavens he was wearing his seat harness. “This horrific incident saw his Ford F250 pickup truck get side swiped at a stoplight, before flipping over several times. Thankfully, Alonso came out unscathed, but the experience alone was extremely chilling for him, and left his truck smashed to pieces.
Reese Kaplan -- David Stearns Insists Starting Pitching is Just Fine
It almost always seems that a key injury occurs when the club seems unprepared with backup plans in place when necessary to have someone covering for whomever it is that is healing. In this case the issue, of course, is the Kodai Senga "arm fatigue" which at this point appears to be a non-surgical injury that requires rest and therapy.
Now the situation is quite a bit different when it comes to starting pitchers. While the Mets did make a weak effort to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the great letdown when their first free agent starting pitcher acquisition was a man with a 6.35 ERA for the Yankees in 2023.
He was then followed by Adrian Houser and Sean Manaea. Of that trio, only Manaea was welcomed to the rotation even if he was not quite the caliber of still available starting pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery or Trevor Bauer.
So when the subject of how the Mets are planning to deal with the uncertainty and severity of Senga's injury arose during a David Stearns press event, to pretty much no one's surprise was the explicit message that the club has in-house resources available to fill in.
Do yourself a favor and don't look at the stat sheet for Megill. Lucchesi did pitch to a 2.98 ERA as a 2023 starting pitcher. Butto did better than expected, hovering around 3.25 in limited usage.
.jpg)
And as a reminder, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Trevor Bauer are all still looking for jobs...given the injury history of Luis Severino it may not be that foolish an idea to grab hold of another solid and proven arm who at worst could help form a 6-man rotation if all are healthy and productive. That's a very nice problem to have.
While any of these three are adequate for a rainout-caused doubleheader or a series of games without any off-days between them, none were immediately thought to be on par with the likes of Senga, Quintana, Manaea. Houser or even Severino.
Right now it is prudent for Stearns to state that the club has adequate in-house pitching alternatives (including untested rookies in camp), but you'd at least expect him to be evaluating options available via trade, free agency or last minute cutting by teams towards the end of Spring Training.
.jpg)
And as a reminder, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Trevor Bauer are all still looking for jobs...given the injury history of Luis Severino it may not be that foolish an idea to grab hold of another solid and proven arm who at worst could help form a 6-man rotation if all are healthy and productive. That's a very nice problem to have.
2/23/24
My Spin - Spring Training 2/22/24
Bob Nightingale of USA Today graded the Mets off-season with an F+
The shutting down of Kodai Senga will be filled with one of the non-prospects that will remain to open at either Syracuse or Binghamton.
Senga.-
"At this point, I'm not gonna be able to perform at the highest level so giving it a little time is the right move. "
The pool will consist of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and Jose Butto with my guess being Megill.
Could even see him slotted into SP1 to keep the original rotation slots for the other starters in place.
Luis Guillorme says he continues to be Gang texted by Tomas Nido, saying "I just can't shake this guy"
Ronny Mauricio -
"I think this is one of those learning lessons that I can take advantage of..."
He will not rule out a return this season.
I can't see how one full year of progression of guys like Jett Williams or Luisangel Acuña can help him, but if this how he really feels then God Bless.
This is my last pre-ST game post for the season.
I will be traveling Friday to Florida which will prevent one more post.
Beginning Monday, I will participate with Tom, Paul, and Malaysian Reese in a new series of secondary Mets prospect profiles.
Reese Kaplan -- How Building a Roster Can & Sometimes Is Done
Many folks who think of how to improve the team's roster often succumb to a chronic infliction of reunion fever. It is the familiarity with the former Mets players which replaces the fear of the unknown because you never know how a newcomer will react to the crowd sizes, media pressure and other aspects of being a part of the biggest baseball city in the country. Towards that end whenever the Mets have a personnel need on the field you will immediately start hearing things like "What about Michael Conforto?" or "Why not sign Aaron Loup?" or "You can't get any better choice than (fill in the blank)!" You get the idea.
Of course, the flip side to this approach is looking at many players who did not exactly set Citifield on fire with offense, defense, baserunning or pitching. Many of those folks who have failed cement the belief that outside talent is a losing proposition. Exhibit A would be Daniel Vogelbach. Exhibit B would be Carlos Carrasco. Exhibit C would be Darrin Ruf (or Tyler Naquin or, well, once again you get the idea.)
The very same people who criticize the team's desire to bring in some fresh faces get somewhat hypocritical when the acquisition via trade or free agency turns into a Francisco Lindor, an Edwin Diaz, a Brooks Raley, a Chris Bassitt or even a 2022 non-injured Starling Marte. Somehow they seem to purport that these never-before-Mets couldn't possibly succeed but when they do they often don't give the recognition they deserve.
So all of this discussion came to mind when this week news floated down that former Met Amed Rosario signed an inexpensive deal with the Rays. In fact, he's getting paid considerably less than Mets' reserve infielder Joey Wendle while offering up the ability to play both middle infield and the outfield. He's shown the talent to hit for average and to steal bases. Yet oddly the reunion revelers made nary a peep about bringing him back to the Mets. Is it because his stay in New York was relatively short lived? Is it because they don't believe he would be a good fit when the somewhat lopsided trade fell in the Mets favor.
Yes, I've heard all of the other cacophony regarding former Mets. How many wanted a Part II with David Robertson? What about Seth Lugo? How about checking on securing a new deal for Justin Turner? Yes, this less-than-original thinking, flawed though it might be, does indeed have some merit.
What is much harder to understand is why the lukewarm reaction to other newcomers like Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jake Diekman, Tyrone Taylor and Harrison Bader. (Well, in the case of Bader, nearly no one this side of Pete Alonso understands nor appreciates that deal, but that's another rant for another day.)
The Mets did do a reunion with Adam Ottavino and no one on the pro reunion nor anti reunion side seemed to have an issue with that transaction. The Mets bullpen was indeed not as strong as it could be and Ottavino was a reliable arm for the two years he already spent here.
It does make you wonder how the fans would have reacted if the Mets did indeed acquire some top notch talent that had never before played for the New York National League franchise. Would they be happy to see proven entities joining the path back towards contention or would they damn with feint praise assuming that a newcomer couldn't possibly be as good (and certainly not better) than folks they've seen player in orange and blue already.
Personally, I'm not against reunions any more that I'm strictly in favor of new talents. What I am steadfastly yearning is a desire for the club to put together a winning team even during the 2024 transition season. Whether or not the young and unproven players slated for full time roles or the newcomers and familiar faces recovering from injury are 100% healthy will conspire to make a 2023 losing team into a 2024 winning one is still fodder for debate. It's kind of like building weapons out of balsa wood.
Games start soon enough -- even in the preseason -- so we shall soon see how this bizarre off season prognosticates what will commence when Opening Day is not just taking place in Port St. Lucie.
2/22/24
Paul Articulates – A strong start
Optimism exudes from everywhere at spring training. Every interview with players, coaches, and management spins the positive side of what may become of the season. It is difficult to really judge the shortcomings of a team when there are more players than roster spots, and most folks have arrived healthy. Watching skilled players display their abilities in drills is very different than seeing them in a dark state of mind when they are mired in a 1-23 slump. So this is not where will find the clues.
Look to the first month of the season. The Mets have some very big challenges in front of them that were arranged by the league office when it released the 2024 MLB schedule. In the span of 32 games from March 28th through May 2nd (which I will loosely call the month of April), the Mets have 19 games at home and 13 games away from Citi Field interspersed with only four off-days.
Home stand #1: Milwaukee (3 games), Detroit (3 games)
Road trip #1: Cincinnati (3 games), Atlanta (4 games)
Home stand #2: Kansas City (3 games), Pittsburgh (3 games)
Road trip #2: LA Dodgers (3 games), SF Giants (3 games)
Home stand #3: St. Louis (3 games), Chicago Cubs (4 games)
What stands out to me in this schedule is the difficulty of the road games. Cincinnati was very good last year, and I still expect them to field a strong team despite several changes in the off-season. Their pen is going to be great again. Atlanta is not only one of the most talented teams in baseball, but they also are driven to play hard against the Mets because of their rivalry. The second road trip is not only one of those tough west coast 6 games in 6 days trips, but it features two teams that spent a tremendous amount of time and money improving their squads in the off-season.
The Mets have consistently stated that their team is deeper this year than in prior years, and that their defense and base-running expects to be improved. Those two things are essential in carrying them through this opening stretch because there will be very little rest. The other thing that is extremely important to prove in April is the depth and strength of their pitching. The rotation does not look much like any season in the recent past, as it is not loaded with Aces. Rather there are five or six very capable pitchers that need things to break their way for this to be a successful month. We saw last year that an inability to get through more than 5 innings in most of the April games led to bullpen fatigue by June and a whole lot of games that used too many arms.
A successful year in 2024 has to open with a successful April. Seven of these ten teams have a legitimate playoff shot this year (including the #1 and #2 teams in the NL), so anything short of a winning month is going to be a big confidence hit. By the second of May, if this team has 18 wins they have a legitimate shot – less than that will foretell a long season.
My Spin - Spring Training 2/21/24
Per The Athlete, the Mets had the 5th least improved team in the off season.
Reality Check - Ex-Cubs pitcher Shelby Miller's son was diagnosed with the genetic disorder STXBP... three days later, the Cubs cut Miller.
MiLB teams this year have been reduced 165 players on their combined rosters.
This represents 450 LESS DOMESTIC PLAYERS IN 2024
Look for slower boats from the DR.
Drills were concentrated in the outfield with participation of all outfielders in camp
My good friend, Joe Doyle, of Future Stars came out with his top 100 prospect list.
Only 3 Mets:
#31. Jett Williams
#63. Ronny Mauricio
#78. Drew Gilbert
My guess is Williams will go top 10 the same time next pre-season
I asked Joe what.he thought of Jett:
"I like Jett alot.
Looking forward to watching him get more comfortable at AA and letting the tools take over."
Francisco Alvarez was asked what his 2024 goals were:
"BE IN THE PLAYOFFS!
THAT'S IT!!!"
Remember earlier this week when I said I thought Kodai Senga was throwing too much this spring?
Turns out he finished up yesterday's side session complaining of arm fatigue.
Same o same o.
Carlos Beltran, Daryl Strawberry, and Eduardo Alfonzo will be guest instructors at the complex this spring
Tom Brennan: Ex-Met Duke Snider; Megill is Splitsville; Voit vs. Vientos Thoughts
The Duke of Brooklyn in 1953
I don’t know why, but I thought about ex-Dodger and Met Duke Snider and wanted to write a little about him.
The great Brooklyn Dodger Duke Snider was once upon a time a Met. Hard to believe that he died 13 years ago at the age of 84.
First it was Joe D and the Duke.
Then it was Willie, Mickey, and the Duke.
A Golden Era in centerfield in NY.
The Mets fans got end-of-career Mets play from Willie and the Duke.
Duke heading to the plate at the Polo Grounds in 1963
In Duke’s case, he was a Met for one season, in 1963 at age 36, and in 354 at bats, was slashing at .243/.345/.401. In the weak Mets line up, he was respected and intentionally walked 9 times. He racked up 14 HRs and 45 RBIs.
That was a mere fraction of his 1950s performance. A little before I was old enough to watch baseball, in a 3 year stretch from 1953 thru 1955, the Duke was a total beast, averaging .330/.420/.635, with 126 runs scored and 130 RBIs, and averaging 42 HRs for 5 seasons.from 1953 through 1957. WOW.
The Duke started his career in the low minors in 1944, but missed 1945 and 1946 due to military service. In 1947, he made a fairly brief MLB debut, split 1948 between the minors and majors, and was off to the races in 1949. Likely, those two years in the military lessened his career HR and RBI totals.
Duke used to play here.
He, like so many greats, was supreme through age 30, not only rippling with power, but hitting a ton, at close to .310 in his 20 to 30 age segment.
Thereafter, though, in his last 7 seasons, age 31 through age 37, he averaged just 13 HRs per year. Part of that, to be sure, was his less favored home park in LA starting in 1958. Described, as I often do with Citifield version one, as “cavernous”.
He was also, statistically, per his Baseball Reference page, a plus fielder in his 20s, and a minus fielder in his 30s. Partly due to cranky knees.
Sad to say, we all get old.
Had he played in the modern era of 2023 instead, and signed a 10 year free agent contract after his age 29 season, the team would have gotten one nice, 40 HR, 92 RBI season at age 30, and then that average of 13 HRs as well as just 340 RBIs in 716 games, while averaging about around .280 or a little less.
So…the team signing what probably would have been a 10 year, $350 million deal, would have overpaid. A lot.
I often wonder who the next Met will be that we will sign a contract with for big bucks that most likely will go years past his prime. That’s just me, I guess. It happens a lot.
For those who saw prime time Duke, I hope this article elicited some fond memories, of a time when 4 of the greatest centerfielders of all time played for the 3 NY baseball teams - Joe DiMaggio, Duke Snider, Willie Mays, and Mickey Mantle. Actually played for 4 NY teams, as both Willie and Duke played for our Mets in the twilights of their careers.
If you could pick just one at the start of his career to be your centerfielder, who would you pick?
The Mets had another “Duke” many years later…El Duque Hernandez….who went 18-12 in 2006-07 as a Met, at the ages of 40 and 41, no less. He was 160-82 lifetime pitching Cuban and major league ball.
SPLITSVILLE IN METSVILLE FOR MEGILL
As reported in the NY Post…
Let’s stop splitting hairs…Tylor Megill will be GOOD this year:
“The data the Mets received over the winter on Megill’s splitter — which last year he dubbed the “American Spork” — indicates it could be in that realm as an elite pitch.
“Am I going to call it Kodai’s split?” Hefner said. “I don’t know, but it could be. We’ll see how the hitters respond to it.””
THE ROSTER SQUEEZE SCREWS MARGINAL BUT VIABLE HITTERS
A topic came up yesterday: If Luke Voit makes the Mets, then Mark Vientos will lose the ABs needed to prove himself. I look at it another way.
I (and likely most of you) don't want to see Vientos lose ABs. I don't know if Voit has an out of his contract when spring training wraps up if he has not made the team.
Players in his and Bickford's situations are getting severely squeezed $$-wise. Bickford (a pitcher, obviously) has 3 full seasons in, but had to go to arbitration to get just 20% over MLB minimum, rather than the 10% above minimum after 3 years.
Amed Rosario has been solid for years. He hasn't been great, but has 10.3 WAR, which is good. Speedy .272 career hitter. So he signs as a free agent at $1.5 million, at a mere twice the MLB minimum? Crazy low.
With so many teams willing to pay multi-hundred million contracts to the big stars, more marginal but good guys like Amed get heavily squeezed on pay.
There is only meaningful free agency for the stars, or injured former stars that teams hope will rebound. Rosario is a prime example of how somewhat lower productive players like him get screwed.
Back to Voit. I do not think Voit is finished yet. Yet, back in 1969, teams had 15 offensive players, but today it is 13. That's a lot of jobs lost. Back in 1969, with 2 more offensive slots per team, Voit definitely is on a major league roster.
Here’s some Brennan math:
There were 15 offensive players X 20 teams, totaling 300 players in a country of 200 million.
Now it is 13 offensive players x 30 teams = 390 players, a mere 33% increase in offensive players, but a 70% increase in population.
Players like Voit, who'd most likely be happy to be on any MLB roster, even at $1 million, and who likely can still play at a MLB level, are caught in the owners-created numbers game.
My strong suggestion?
Go back to 15 offensive players. To do this:
Increase team salary caps by $2 million. Result? 60 more offensive players on MLB rosters would get to play. Teams could carry a 3rd catcher or a speedster or a slugger in his twilight, or a pinch hitting specialist like Rusty or Eddie.
Pitchers? Take a look at how many pitchers the Mets used in 1969 - 15.
15 X 20 teams is 300.
Nowadays, the average is 30. 30 X 30 teams is 900.
Drastic increase.
33% more hitters, 200% more pitchers. Pitchers have it made, while hitters get laid - laid off, that is. Why should hitters get screwed because pitcher arms fall apart so often these days?
Give each team 15 offensive players again, not 13, and Vientos will play and we can also find out if Voit is still a viable major leaguer without making it mutually exclusive. Then, if Voit made the team with a strong spring, and he falters like Escobar did last year due to age, you cut Voit after 2 months and bring up a now-slightly more experienced Acuna or Gilbert.
However, while I present this, the owners will not agree to this - adding $2 million more in salaries, plus benefits and travel costs, would add perhaps 0.5% to a team's total costs - but the owners are getting by with the status quo, so why should they spend more dough? And the players' union would likely be uninterested in going to bat for these veteran hitters.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS?
Vegas still has the Mets’ betting odds at 82.5 wins. Dodgers 103.5, Atlanta 101.5, Philadelphia 90.5.
AL? Yankees (who else?) are tops at 93.5, Baltimore at 90.5.
2/21/24
Tom Brennan: Voit: Washed Up? Valuable Signing? Let’s See.
What if I told you that in the 2020 mini-season, Pete Alonso hit like this:
.231/.326/.490, 16 HRs, 35 RBIs.
Meanwhile, player #2 hit like this:
.277/.338/.610, 22 HRs, 52 RBIs.
A lot better, huh?
Player #2, I am sure you’ve figured out, is Luke Voit.
But Luke got off to a slow start in 2021 for the Yankees, a team that hit 222 home runs, so the leash was short. Luke ended up with just 11 HRs and 35 RBIs in 213 at bats.
But over 2020 and 2021, in just 426 at bats, he hit 33 HRs and drove in 87 runs. I’d take that, wouldn’t you.
20% more at bats over that span would have looked like this:
533 at bats, 42 HRs, 110 RBIs, .258. Yep, I’d take that.
Imagine Baty or Vientos doing that in 2024? We’d be doing cartwheels.
In fact, those, pretty much, are Pete Alonso numbers.
2022, some slippage: 22 doubles, 22 HRs in 500 at bats.
2023? He got few ABs in the majors, with Stearns’ Milwaukee Brewers, but in AAA in the minors, he raked:
45 games, 156 at bats, 15 HRs, 43 RBIs, .615 slugging %.
He is 33 this season, but why couldn’t he have a strong 2024…with the Mets?
He is only a 1B/DH, but was a good catcher in the lower minors in 2013. 45 games, 38% CS rate, 3 errors. Never caught again, not sure if that was a physical issue, or more because the Cardinals, his team back then, thought his best position would be first base.
After all, the Cards did have the great Yadier Molina doing their catching strongly through 2021. As a Met, perhaps he could catch in a pinch.
Being a guy like myself who loves power, I am pulling for Voit.
Before I go, as everyone ponders a Pete Alonso $$ super-extension, let’s remember how, in 2020 and 2021, at the age of 29-30 (Alonso’s current age range), Voit put up Alonso-like #s.
Voit likely is not that 2020-21 player anymore, at age 33.
Alonso might similarly fade, too, when he is 33. Let the spender beware.
BRANDON WOODROOF?
Headed elsewhere. How many Brandons can one team have, anyway?
Keep in mind that a good wood roof needs great roof tile.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)