Random Thoughts: - Mets Picks in 2011 Draft, Phil Humber, and Identifying Prospects

-Right now, if the 2011 draft was taken, the Mets would get the 13th, 48th , and 76th pick. That currently translates to:



RHP Dylan Bundy – 6-1 high schooler that sits at 94


C Peter O-Brien – considered the top college catcher in the draft


RHP Anthony Meo – Coastal Carolina 6-1 hits 96


These are three quality blue-chippers that would both easily make the top 25 level of The Keeper list overnight.



-There’s been a bunch of chatter regarding whether or not John Franco should be in the HOF. Here are the lifetime stats for the five closers already in the Hall, and John’s:


Goose Gossage: 124 wins, 310-saves, 3.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Bruce Sutter: 68 wins, 300-saves, 2.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Dennis Eckersley: 197 wins, 390 saves, 3.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Rollie Fingers: 114 wins, 341 saves, 2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Hoyt Wilhelm: 143 wins, 227 saves, 2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

John Franco: 90 wins, 424 saves, 2.89 ERA, 1.33 WHIP



RHP Phillip Humber was designated for assignment by the Oakland A’s. This might be the end of a career for a once top Mets prospect, that was a key ingredient in the Johan Santana trade.This is another example of rushing someone, through injuries, too fast. He only had 15 starts in 2005, 14 of which produced a 4.99 ERA fir St. Lucie… then, a total of 16 appearances for 4 clubs in 2006, including the Mets. Frankly, he never had a decent season, anywhere. This was back when everybody wanted to draft a starter from Rice.


Look, let’s stay with this Humber event for a few minutes.


I keep saying, until blood comes out of my ears, that you just don’t know what you have until a player reaches the AA level. Before that, it’s all speculation. It really doesn’t matter what someone’s stats are in rookie ball. You could be playing a team that is stocked with piss poor minor leaguers that have no chance of rising to a new level, no less the pros. Or, your pitching coach might have ordered you to throw a new pitch every third pitch that you haven’t mastered yet.


What you can do at this level is recognize potential through tools. Can someone run a 60-yard dash or home-to-first faster than the speed of a bullet? Can an outfielder throw a ball 90+ to second base or on the fly from right to third? Can a hitter swing a controlled swing with ++ speed and hit a ball with the bat going out rather than in? Can a pitcher throw 90+? Can a pitcher throw 90+ and throw it on the fly to the catcher? And, can he make that 90+ pitch move at the end?


There’s more, but these are examples of things you can recognize, but none of them mean squat until they are honed and applied at higher levels against teams full of other guys that can do the same thing.


Here’s a rule to remember…


If I list a player in the top 20 Keepers (prospects) category, and they are playing either AA or AAA, then I probably am saying they have the talent to make it in the pros.


But, if I list a player in the top 20 that is playing A+ or below, I’m only recognizing tools and ceiling, and what others in the scouting world have told me.