6/20/13

Where Have You Gone, Ernie Banks?

While many Mets fans wait with bated breath, expecting Sandy “Nero” Alderson to pull the trigger on a trade to bring a talented outfielder (or three) to Queens, perhaps instead his focus should be on strengthening the infield.  It’s obvious that even without his precipitous offensive crash this year, Ruben Tejada has been in the Mets doghouse ever since his visa issues prevented him from getting to Spring Training on time in 2012.  Still, once he hit the DL, it became painfully clear that the Mets are woefully thin at that position down to the A ball level (and Gavin Cecchini is not exactly setting the world on fire either).

Anyway, the prospect of getting offense from a position that’s been a black hole seems like the smart thing to do.  I’ll never forget when Elliott Maddox played for the Yankees in the mid-1970s.  He had a season in which he hit the softest .303 of any starter I’ve ever seen.  He slugged 3 HRs, drove in 45 and stole 6 bases (while getting caught 5 times!)  That’s what the last couple of years of Ruben Tejada at SS felt like.  Last year in nearly 500 ABs he hit 1 HR, drove in 25 and stole 4 bases (while getting caught 4 times), but he did hit .289.  If he fielded like Mark Belanger I could live with it.  However, this year, like Ike Davis, his defense seemed to abandon him when his bat did.

While no one would certainly throw Carlos Gonzalez or Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup should the Mets somehow cobble together a package worthy of luring them from their respective employers, but maybe that’s not the right direction to go.   After all, there are a plethora of solid outfielders in major league baseball.  (None of them play in Queens, of course.)

However, there are just a small handful of shortstops that can be considered offensive forces.  One such player who makes a boatload of money and would provide the Rockies with even more salary relief than shipping out CarGo would be the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki.  The man is under contract through 2020 and set to make $20 million per year for most of the duration of that deal.  However, he’s also just 28 years old and a Gold Glove caliber defender.  While he doesn’t have CarGo’s speed, he probably has more power and they both hit .300.  Would the lineup be better served with CarGo plus Ruben Tejada or Mid-Tier Outfielder+Troy Tulowitzki?  The answer seems rather obvious.

Of course, in Tulowitzki you’re going to have to give up a great many of the pieces of the future that have been assembled during the Omar Minaya and Sandy Alderson eras, so perhaps you don’t want to be counterproductive.  Who are the shortstops on the next tier in the big leagues that might be worth pursuing?

Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs

After a rookie year in which he hit .300, he followed it up with a 207 hit sophomore campaign that included 10 HRs and 22 SBs.  The following season the average dipped a bit to .283, but he saw highs with 14 HRs, 78 RBIs and 25 SBs.  This year he’s not doing so well, so the “buy low” philosophy might work a bit in terms of what you have to give up to strike a deal.  However, they did lock him up to a long term contract which pays his between $5 and $11 million per year through 2019 with a $16 million option for 2020 with a $1 million buyout.  Those figure seem in line with what the Mets did (for a shorter term) with Jon Niese.  He’s obviously not the same player as Troy Tulowitzki, but a young veteran at age 23 for modest money, he may be a good long term investment.

J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles

While not a glamorous name, he’s still a power threat at the position and earning just $7 million per year while averaging 23 HRs and 77 RBIs per season.  Next year he’ll be 31 and should be a productive hitter worthy of another 3 year deal like the one he signed in 2012 with the Orioles.

Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians

Earning $10 million next year for diminished production this year, the Indians might be inclined to move him.  At 27 years old and a year removed from a 16 HR campaign and 2 years removed from a 25/92 campaign, he might be a gamble worth taking.

Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers

Remember him?  Remember when he was the next big thing?  The Dodgers have to be kicking themselves for getting the LA area equivalent of what the Angels received in Josh Hamilton.  He seems to have left all of his hitting prowess in South Florida.  Between he and the mysterious Carl Crawford demise, the free spending Dodgers might look to get something back so they’re not on the hook for next year.  He’ll be 31 and most definitely in need of a change of scenery.  Still, he comes with risks and is known to have a little Gary Sheffield/Jordany Valdespin in him – the game being all about Hanley.  On the other hand, no one minds swagger if you can back it up.  However, is that swagger worth $16 million for next year?  It’s doubtful the Dodgers think so, hence it may be possible to pry him loose for salary relief and not a lot of talent going to the west coast.

Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

With uber-prospect Jurickson Profar now playing competently in the big leagues the Rangers have something of a dilemma on their hands.  They issued a surprisingly lucrative long term deal to Andrus and while a solid player he’s not stealing bases at a Rickey Henderson rate to warrant the money.  They could keep both of them and shift one to 2nd base if slugger Ian Kinsler bolts as a free agent at the end of the year.  Still, a team accustomed to the history of long ball suddenly turning into a latter day version of the 1980s St. Louis Cardinals playing small ball might be a tough sell to the fan base.  They’re already playing speed demon Leonys Martin every day, so it may be Andrus who’s the odd man out.  However, few teams are going to want to pony up $15 million per year through 2020 for solid but unspectacular production at shortstop.

Some players are not even worth mentioning like Jean Segura playing for major league minimum or Everth Cabrera earning less than $1.5 million with 31 steals and a .300 average less than halfway through the season.

There are some minor leaguers with interesting potential including defensively challenged speedster Dee Gordon of the Dodgers.  The Dodgers are currently sending 36 year old Mark Ellis and super utilityman Skip Schumaker out to play 2nd base.  Neither seems to spell long term solution for the boys in blue.  Could there be a fit?  Then again, if he’s that good why don’t they promote him to Chavez Ravine?

There are some free agents next year who are solid outfielders like Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Curtis Granderson, Corey Hart and Mike Morse.  In the shortstop arena it’s scrap heap pickings at best.

25 comments:

Mack Ade said...

The Cubs will be dumping shortly...

Michael S. said...

Tulowitzki....I'd take him over Cargo any day.

Dan B said...

Here is my revised master plan based on current performances in the majors and minors.

Trade for Stanton - Montero, Syndegaurd, Valdespin, Flores

Sign Elssbury 6 years 90 mil (over pay but not unbearable)

Sign Garza 5 years 60

Trade a few b prospects for Either + 25 percent of his sallary.

Extend Murphy to something team friendly

Trade Davis for the best reliver you can get

Extend Parnell

Lineup:

Elssbury
Murphy
Wright
Stanton
Duda
d'Arnaud
Either
Tejada

Rotation:
Harvey
Wheeler
Niese
Garza
Gee

Pen:
Parnell CL
Lethersich Setup
Rice Loogy

Bench:
Turner
Baxter
Young

There's some bench and pen to fill in here but I think this could be a playoff team.

I know it's a bitter pill to swallow with both Montero and Syndegaurd in one trade, expecially to a division rival, but Stanton would help make this lineup. Also if you didn't want to trade for Either you could sign Pence or make another trade.

Sorry I didn't get a chance to spell check this, in a rush at work...



Dan B said...

Michael,

I agree with you about Tulo over Cargo. In fact if we can't make something work with Stanton I'd prefer that over any other trade since our ttrade talent would be out of the division.

Mack Ade said...

Michael - Tulo is far cheaper and available

Mack Ade said...

Daniel -

I like your plan because it is well thought out. I don't like doing 'plans' because everyone has an opinion.

Plans have to start somewhere, so I ask you where would yours start?

Mine?

I call the Cubs and Dodgers and see what's happening...

Dan B said...

Thanks Mack,

I feel like there are deffinetly 3 or 4 ways to build a contender out of this team. Due to the second wild card spot I think we could be a contender next year but I think even think 2015 is more realistic since the new players and young Mets will probably need to gel for and develop for a year.

Idealy you'd make the trades before the FA signings so that you could show the FA class that you're serious and not overpay as much.

Mack Ade said...

The Mets could contend next year IF they keep Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Montero, Gee as the 2014 rotation

Then, Sandy has to get busy.

I'm fine with d'Arnaud at C, Duda at 1B, Murphy at 2B, and Wright at 3B, but it ends there.

Immediate trading chips are Flores, Syndergaard (sorry Michael, but he is), Verrett, Plawecki,Tapia, and Valdespin... not enogu, but enough to get you two outfielders

IBfromWhitePlains said...

Why would Alderson trade talent for Tulo and his injury history and his huge contract when he wasn't interested in signing Reyes to a long term deal as a free agent and no loss of rganizational talent?

I would love the trade but I don't see the philosophy changing that radically.


Dan B said...

Mack, what do you think we could get Tulo for?

If we could get him for signifcantly less it might make more sense to get him then Stanton.

Also do you think my Montero, Syndergaurd, Flores, Valdespin package has any shot of getting Stanton?

Reese Kaplan said...

Apparently I struck a nerve with some folks talking about upgrading at SS. Yes, the Rockies and Dodgers are likely willing to talk. If not for the recent revival, I'd think Toronto would be open to deals, too, yet with the consensus being that the Mets got the better of them in the R.A. Dickey trade, they may not talk to Alderson.

Mack Ade said...

Reese - not a nerve, just a reality check. The Mets do need a shortstop and 'prospects' like Evans and Cecchini aren't causing writers to add their name to headlines yet.

Daniel - EVERY trade the Mets would make, be it Stanton or Tulo, will cost them multiple young pitchers.

The other teams have 100s of scouts and they know who are the good ones as much as we do.

The Mets suck in the field because they drafted badly and signed lousy every day international players while their core (Beltran, Delgado, Reyes) got old or past ARB.

Harvey, Wheeler, Montero, Syndergaard, Tapia...

THAT'S my dream rotation... you can deal the rest for what you need at various talent levels

Dan B said...

I deffinetly view SS as a place we can upgrade but no one that we HAVE to upgrade.

Tulo would be worth it because he's a great defensive SS who is such an offensive force he can hit 4th behind Wright. also while he is expensive he is under team control for a long time. His value is in his bat and defense not in his legs and his contract ends when he is in his mid 30s.

I don't want to see us upgrade there if it's not qa difference maker though. Tejada had a rough start to the year but he's a decent cheap replacment level player if we decide to fix our offense another way.

Mack Ade said...

my vote is Starlin Castro

Michael S. said...

Tulowitzki brings a different skillset and a middle of the order bat the mets need desperately.

Mack - If he's available Id rather trade for him than Stanton because the price will be steep for Giancarlo. I hate the thought of sending multiple young pitchers to the Marlins. I thought I read somewhere that the Rockies like the Mets prospects more than the Marlins do. If Sandy is talking to Colorado I hope the conversation is Tulo and not Cargo.

Michael S. said...

Agreed, I don't want the Mets facing Montero and Syndergaard that many times per year.

Michael S. said...

If that's the case, then acquiring him makes much more sense. The Mets add a superstar hitter and still have talent leftover to fill needs.

Michael S. said...

Joc Pederson...Ethier makes too much for what he brings. If the Dodgers eat a lot of salary they'll expect better talent in return. The Mets can probably get him for average talent but then the budget will be gummed up for years and we'll be repeating the Bay nonsense.

From the Cubs Id want Rizzo but I doubt he's available.

Michael S. said...

I wonder if the Mets could substitute Gee and a lesser arm ( Verrett, deGrom, Mazzoni) to hold onto one of Montero or Thor. Gee, Montero, deGrom, Puello, Plawecki is a pretty sizable offer.

This is why I hope the Mets do a little more selling before buying....increase what's in the bank account before writing that big check.

Mack Ade said...

Michael -

I've never seen the magic of Giancarlo

He may hit his home runs far away, but he doesn't hit any more than, let's say, Ike Davis

Michael S. said...

It's the immense power at such a young age. He's not really a complete hitter but he's a lot better than Ike has been since he got hurt.

Mack Ade said...

we don't have enough decent players that speak Spanish to work out a deal with the Marlins

Mack Ade said...

Michael:

The good news here is the Mets need three outfielders and a shortstop.

They have conservatively 14 pitching prospects + Flores, Valdespin, Tejada, Plawecki to get three of these deals done.

It doesn't matter if you trade 3 of your players for one... your need is always less than the sum of your system

Michael S. said...

If it got the Mets what they needed, I'd make three 5 for 1 deals, assuming all other positions are taken care of.

Im hoping they can make at least one deal during the season. It gets the ball rolling earlier and makes the Mets more attractive to free agents this winter.

Dan B said...

Totally with Michael right there. As great a player as Stanton is Tulo is more proven, under long term if not a cheap contract and is a middle of the order bat. You can spend a little less to get him and its a more premium position.