5/17/14

Morning Report – May 17th - Klaw-Chat (Montero, Wheeler, deGrom, EYJ), Yanks Series, Dellin Betances



        Coming Later Today –

                 10 am – Reese Kaplan -

                  Noon - Baseball America - New Mock Draft

                3 pm -  Top 15 C in 2014 MLB Draft - Updated 5-15-14

                6 pm –  Michael Chavis, Gareth Morgan, Carson Sands, Michael Conforto, Nick Gordon



Evansville LHP Kyle Freeland (my pick for Mets at #10) struck out 11 in 7 shutout innings


The Texas Rangers sign P Chris Schwinden from Atlantic League (Lancaster). Headed to AAA.


Klaw-Chat –
steve (ny) - What did you think of Rafael Montero’s debut last night?

Klaw  - He looked okay, a bit nervous, didn't have his usual fastball command, never should have been sent back out for the 6th inning.

Mack – You get no argument with me on this one. All you had to do if you were TC was to go down the bench to Wright and Murphy and they both would have told him that, even though they knew what was coming, they still couldn’t hit him.
It’s hard to explain what a great slider looks like. You only have so many milliseconds to decide if you are going to swing and every one of these (if perfectly thrown) starts off right down the pipe. The problem is the ball stays in the strike zone long enough for you to commit to swinging, but winds up somewhere near the dirt when you eventually do swing through.

Montero had no chance of turning this into a win at this point and Collins’ should have pulled him at the end of six, taking that first start pressure off of him.

Jonny (L.A.) - Wheeler has looked increasingly lost lately...with him, is it a question of mechanics? He throws a LOT of pitches that miss by a wide margin...

Klaw  - Just from watching on TV, he looks hurt. Something isn't right. I wish I had time to go see him live and see if my reaction has any factual basis - that's just what I thought from watching him on mlb.tv, which by the way is the greatest thing ever on that worldwide system of interconnected computers, but I couldn't tell you exactly what was wrong.

It’s interesting that Law is saying this. I said the same thing to myself while ‘painfully’ watching Wheeler struggle through his last outing. Pitchers are habitual liars and I only hope we are both wrong here.

Will (New York City) - Should I make a big deal about going to the debut game of Jake deGrom tonight? I mean, I know it's not a Harvey or Strasburg debut, but does this young man have a big career ahead?

Klaw  -  At worst a good reliever, but I think he's a back-end starter for someone.

‘Someone’ is probably the key word here. I still think deGrom is potentially a big time trading chip for a top shelf outfield prospect.

Dave (NJ) - It also didn't help Montero that his manager is unaware of the fact that Juan Lagaras is ALWAYS a better option to paly than EYJ. First Collins sits Lagaras in Yankee stadium WITH BARTOLO COLON PITCHING! Then does a kid no favors in his ML debut by sitting his otherworldly CFer in favor of EYJ, who of course botched a play that led to a run. UGH.
Klaw  -  I don't get the EYJ fixation. He's a fringe big leaguer. Lagares is a legit everyday guy with a 7 or 8 glove. At some point, the front office has to step in and smack Collins in the back of the head.

        We all know that the 2014 Mets lack depth of talent.

        That being said, you start with your strengths:

                Pitching – Gee, Niese
                Defense – Lagares, d’Arnaud, Granderson, Tejada
                Bats – Murphy, Wright

You simply can’t keep Juan Lagares out of your lineup and, since Curtis Granderson is hot, your only choice at left field is either Chris or Eric Young.

EJY always seems to be hitting more that the results and the ‘results’ speak for themselves… Chris Young is both a better hitter and a better defensive player.

This man-crush TC has for him is reaching an embarrassing level.



Sources in Binghamton have told me that there no current plans to send any players to Las Vegas to fill any of the spots that have come available there. The Juan Centeno slot has been filled by the miraculous (sic) return from the DL of C Kai Gronauer. One of two SP slots was filled by Giancarlo Alvarado (in Vegas pen) and my guess the other will be Eric Goeddel.
        Remember… both the Montero and deGrom promotions did not come at the normal time players start to jump levels. Yes, those two decisions were made, but the Mets seem to have not use that opportunity to upset the entire organizational apply cart. Good plan.


One must believe that Alderson & Company are happy with the results of both Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom this past week. The best thing that can happen now is for the hoopla of the ‘Subway Series’ go away and everybody get back to playing ‘win the series’ baseball within your own division. Where things go when Dillon Gee comes back would be all guesswork at this point. Colon? Wheeler? Trade? Bueller?

        Regardless of who pitches, it does nothing for the enemic offense that once more exposed during the last two games played against the Yankees at CitiFiield.  Two wonderful pitching performances by rookies both go down in the books as a loss.




I was watching the Mets-Yanks game on Thursday night and they were explaining how the Yankees were successful to limiting Dellin Betances’ game down to two pitches, his fastball and curve. If the future of Jenrry Mejia is truly as the closer for the New York Mets, wouldn’t the same approach work here?



 The Mets have targets Hartford LHSP, 6-5 Sean Newcomb for their first round pick in the 2014 draft.  Newcomb’s stat line going into Friday night was: 13-starts, 7-2, 1.36, 86.1-IP, 92-K, .168 b/ave.  His fastball sits in the 96 range; however, it did hit 100 against Stony Brook earlier this year.



RHP Scott Blewett, who has skipped last 2 starts now w/ shoulder stiffness, will take 10 days off before pitching again before the draft.



Here’s a very interesting spin by Peter Gammons on the TJS epidemic. Maybe this is just normal… http://www.gammonsdaily.com/a-tommy-john-surgery-theory/



I’ve written a number of times that a ballplayer can’t truly be marketed as a ‘trade chip’ until he performs at the major league level. AAA prospects are great to talk about, but there have been as many that failed than succeeded over the years.

Especially pitching. The whole game changes the minute you walk only a nationally televised game with 40,000 people in the stands. Now your mental game takes over. Now we see what you really have.

Jake deGrom became that ‘trade chip’ Thursday night.

In a perfect world, the Mets 2015 rotation will be Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler (with his act together), Bartolo Colon (with his contract), Noah Syndergaard, and Rafael Montero.

What it won’t be is Jonathan Niese, Dillon Gee, and deGrom.

You’d like to think that the Mets could find a home for Colon, or possibly eat the remainder of the contract, but that’s not how they operate. Another 2015 option would be the pen, leaving one slot open for either Niese, Gee, or deGrom.

So, let’s dream. Let’s say that the Mets decide to turn Colon into the long man in 2015 or the emergency SP6 pitching every fifth outing in Las Vegas. Both Gee and Niese have had some injury history, but nothing compared to the TJS that deGrom went through. Who stays? Who departs?

Well, much of this will be determined by the other team looking for some pitching help.

Trust me, the additions of both Montero and deGrom to the current rotation changes everything when the trading season opens up. The Mets will probably still be wallowing around the .475-.500 range, but they will also be in the midst of promoting Syndergaard as well as keeping the chains on Harvey.

DeGrom will be in the perfect position to get you that long-term OF bat you can build on.

11 comments:

Michi L. said...

Hey Mack you mentioned Sean Newcomb. A lot of mock drafts suggest the Mets will pick a College player. Mostly either Newcomb, Zimmer or Conforto.
Whats your thoughts about them?

Michi L. said...

Sorry for write off topic but am I the only one who increasingly getting angry when I see the lineups. It makes me so sick to hear Terry complain about the offense just to send the same guys out the next day instead of the guys with potential.

Ernest Dove said...

At this point I can only come up with conspiracy theory that Mets management are trying to lose on purpose, while at same time hoping to give ey jr, abreu and CY plenty of at bats, in the hopes they increase trade value...............
I mean, what has abreu really done this year? Ey going 1-4 with a possible stolen base/run is not that productive, and outside of that random homer/double once a week, what is CY contributing to earn his starts?
I don't know, I'm just frustrated.....the entire league (thanks to numerous injuries) is full of average teams right now, so I keep thinking Mets playoffs, but its like they purposely sabotaging everything.

Robb said...

For every run EY seems to create he seems to cost his team one too. I had no problem with abreau playing. im sure the stats say lefts wear out last nights pitcher. the problem is EY in there over legares. when you are 1 for your last 11 goign into the game, im pretty sure you're in a slump too. I look at this team and what i realize is that some of these players are good baseball players but they arent smart players.

Murphy, who i like makes a lot of dumb decisions. EY diving for a ball or over throwing the cut off man. Tejada well, im not sure he knows what he's doing 95% of the time, sure ill bunt for a hit with the pitcher coming up bc the mets werent 1-for-65 from the pitcher spot, theres only one out.

we are constantly celebrating derek jeter and deservedly so in ny, bc not only was he a tremendously talented player but he was super smart at baseball. that flip to home plate is dumb except he knew wo it there was no shot at getting giambi. legares makes smart plays, T'Da will make smart plays, granderson makes smart plays, wright is your captain. everyone else needs to smarten up. and good god stop with EY, by my count he led ff once last night, in the first inning and proceeded to ground out.

That Adam Smith said...

There are a number of problems on this team, and finances obviously loom above much of the mess, but it's looking like two of the major issues going forward will turn out to be the two big contracts that they DID give out.

Four years of Granderson at $15mm per - on a team with a bottom half payroll (forget about bottom 20%, where we are now) is an albatross. And Colon, well, let's just say that no one in their right mind is going to be trading for him at the deadline.

Regardless of performance, the Mets are unlikely to sit or release Colon - and eat the remainder of his contract - until (too) late next season, when there's almost nothing left of it anyway. And Granderson, even with a sub-.200 average, is going to play every day until at least the end of 2016. You know, to "get him going."

Oddly, I think we'd have been better off spendiing $25mm LESS this season, let Lagares and EYJ both play, and filled in with Dice-K until the kids started coming up.

(Actually I would have re-signed Byrd as a stop-gap instead of C Young, so maybe $22mm less - but no need to revisit that.)

Sigh.

Mack Ade said...

Michi -

I love Newcomb

Conforto reminds me of Alan Dykstra or Lucas Duda

Zimmer is a good outfield pick in a weak outfield draft

Mack Ade said...

Michi -

My Monday Report is named 'The Abyss' and is all about this.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

My thoughts are not that far off from yours.

I do not understand what is going on right now in those offices.

Mack Ade said...

Adam -

don't miss my Monday Morning Report... you'll enjoy it

Bill Metsiac said...

Mack---your picks for the '15 rotation loock fine, BUT do you really think we can go with a 100% RH rotation? If Niese has an awful rest of '14, that's one thing, but he has the kind of season he's had in the past 12 months I'd say he's a lock to stay.

On another note, watching today's game, I'd bet if there were a stat for warning-track FBs, CY would be at or near the top of the list. Whether he's at home, or in YS, or here in DC, it seems he consistently hits the ball just far enough to keep it in the park. Have you noticed this, too?

Mack Ade said...

Bill -

I guess you have to have a LHP in your rotation, but the amount of talent here just makes me dizzy.

Your comments on CY are interesting... could be a sign of wearing out