Reese Kaplan -- The Art of the Deal

Apologies for coopting a title that may rankle some folks after this past Tuesdays election results, but the concept came to mind with Thursday’s deal for R.A. Dickey by the Atlanta Braves.  As Mets fans we perhaps wistfully felt a twinge of regret having embraced fond memories of the man who not only delivered a Cy Young award to a Mets player, but also was responsible for bringing us Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud and Wuilmer Becerra.  While there have been some other early moves including the trade of Cameron Maybin from the Tigers to the Angels, as well as the trade of Howie Kendrick from the Dodgers to the Phillies, Dickey holds the distinction of being the first free agent to switch uniforms.

Then on Friday the wires heated up with the news that Atlanta had struck early once again, securing the services of big Bartolo Colon for one year for $12.5 million.  One can argue whether or not he is being overpaid given his age but based upon how he pitched for the Mets, that number seems fair, though probably a poor fit for the guys from Queens since he would be an emergency starter and/or bullpen piece whereas in Atlanta he's in the regular starting rotation.  

Now the question arises rhetorically is that a good thing or a bad thing for the player and for the acquiring team?  Sandy Alderson is fond of saying he wants to wait for a market to develop.  There’s risks both ways.  He kind of bid against himself when he jumped the gun on Michael Cuddyer who cost not only a lot of money, but also a compensatory draft pick.  On the other hand, he had Yoenis Cespedes fall back into his lap last year when his market failed to materialize as he had hoped it would.

Similarly, Dickey signing a contract so quickly may have sold himself short on what he could have earned once some of the other starting pitcher options were already off the table such as Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, Clayton Richard, Jason Hammel, Doug Fister, Charlie Morton and Ivan Nova. Ditto Bartolo Colon.  At the time of this writing financial terms of Dickey’s deal were not disclosed but it’s unlikely the Braves threw the same kind of money at him that the Blue Jays did upon acquiring him.  Consequently, from a negotiating standpoint, he either is overpaid or underpaid depending on how the market unfolds.

The same question can be raised about trades as well.  They are joined at the hip to the free agent market because regardless of the method of acquisition, the value of the available players goes up or down based upon supply and demand.  For example, both Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters are free agents this year.  The Yankees have and extraneous catcher in Brian McCann.  Do they try to rush out to deal him away now before the negotiations begin with Ramos and Wieters, or would they be smarter to hold onto him until both of the premier catcher options are off the board?  There’s a risk they could be stuck with him, of course, at more than $17 million per year. 

Sandy Alderson tends to be of the wait and see school of transactions.  The Cuddyer deal was an outlier in an otherwise patient (some might say inert) approach which yielded eleventh hour signings in the past like Jerry Blevins and (shudder) Alex Torres along with his Great Gazoo cap.  The risk here is that all the good options may already be taken. 

So, armchair GMs, which is the better approach?  Do you move boldly and quickly to secure the people you want or do you wait hoping that the price declines?  In the case of free agents, the longer you wait, the less they likely will get.  Case in point is Ian Desmond who turned down a QO with the Nationals to wind up signing a one year $8 million contract with the Rangers.  That was an expensive decision on his part. 

As a project manager, I think the right approach first and foremost is to have a plan, a backup plan and a backup plan to the backup plan.  That plan might very well be to sit tight on the Cespedes front until you see what others offer, or it could be to make a trade for a likely replacement such as Andrew McCutchen or to sign another slugger like Jose Bautista.  The frustration many Mets fans feel is that there is no primary plan other than to try to save money, let alone a contingency plan and an emergency plan. 

What should Sandy Alderson do?  (My answer, of course, was to sign Cespedes to an extension while there was no competition for his services, but hey, planning is in my blood).