8/17/21

Tom Brennan - How Fast Should Mets Prospects Move Up? Me? I Prefer Overnight Delivery

All Mets prospects hope to wear a Mets cap in Queens ASAP


The glaciers may or may not be melting, but back in the Wilpon days, prospect upward movement was often glacially slow.

Here's my perspective:

It is a business, a very high $$ business Francisco Lindor just reminded me, so it would be nice as owners to be totally altruistic and to promote everyone as fast as possible.  

But sometimes you can't.  Guys are already in the majors and playing every day, blocking other talented guys.  Good guys are perhaps above other high performing guys playing in the same positions, so promoting the latter would just cut their playing time.

Sometimes you want to promote a guy a few weeks later in order to retain another year of service.  It's a business.

This year, however, has had such an onslaught of injuries (seriously, can you even think of another Mets season that comes close?) that the hand is getting forced.

Guys are getting promoted, fast sometimes ready or not.

And, more so than in the Days of Wilpon, guys are being accelerated if the talent is there, and no logjam exists.

Tylor Megill was ready, even if his 45 cumulative minor league innings above A ball at the time of his Mets call up screamed "Premature!"

He came up, and has performed admirably.  Rookie of the year caliber, except they just never, ever score for the guy while he is in games.

Mark Vientos? He got launched over High A Brooklyn and straight up to AA, where he struggled for a while before homering 17 times in a span of 34 games.  Risk taken, reward reaped.

Cole Gordon is a guy who in the Wilpon past never would have been put in AA this fast.  A 32nd rounder in 2019 who got in a handful of innings in that debut season, his 2020 disappeared into the COVID cancel culture, but in 2021, he was not assigned to low A.  He was not assigned to High A.  No, he was sent straight to AA.  Why?  Talent, I presume.

So what does Gordon do in his last 3 AA starts in his first full season? 

17 innings, 2 hits, 28 Ks.  

Which is, for perspective, the equivalent of 2 complete game 1 hit shutouts, fanning 14 in each.

Wow.

Adam Oller was a 2016 Pittsburgh righty 20th round draftee who got up to High A, went Independent, then was signed by the Mets where he pitched solidly this year in AA.  

Then, on Saturday, he made a sizzling and scintillating AAA debut - 6.2 innings, 2 hits, 13 Ks.  

Wow.

108 Ks in 83 innings this year. Under the old regime, he'd probably have been toiling in Brooklyn all of this year instead.

Jose Butto was not pitching great, results-wise, in St Lucie this year.  In the past, perhaps he stays there for the whole season.  But this time around, he gets promoted to AA Binghamton anyway.  Was it the right move?  YES!

In the last 3 starts, he has made the Mets look like geniuses, with 18 brilliant innings of shut out, 8 hit, 2 walk, 20 K ball. 

Wow.

Josh Walker was a "wow" early this year in A and AA, and he recently got promoted to AAA, where he threw 2 absolute "wow" gems and 2 stinkers so far.  But good, let him work his way thru the stinkers, so he is ready to get major leaguers out sooner.  Because a guy who can have two AAA gems where he throws 15 shutout innings and allows just 2 hits has to be good.

Jaylen Palmer played in rookie ball in 2019 and struck out a lot.  Instead of waiting for the new rookie team to play, to work thru the K thing, he got jumped to Low A in 2021, started slowly, but then (yeah, baby) kicked it into gear and is now in High A.  Hitting .275, .381 OBP, and 25 steals in 2021 - whoosh!  Emerson and Lake are truly happy for Palmer.

Alex Ramirez - now an ancient 18 1/2, they skipped him over rookie ball, and he has rewarded them with .254 and 13 steals in 209 at bats for St Lucie.  He is at .254 despite having started out 1 for 18 with 9 Ks, and has done quite well while learning on the job.  A 5 tools guy.  Future star?  Don't be surprised when he is.

Jake Mangum started slowly in Brooklyn A ball this year, going 7 for 34 with 15 Ks.  But the 2019 4th rounder was a highly productive hit machine in college.  So the more-aggressive-in-2021 Mets promote him to Binghamton anyway.  

He hit well for the rest of May, but was around .220 in June and July.  A long stretch of BLAH.  Maybe the old Wilpon regime sends him back down.  But nope, he was left there to fight his way out of it. All he has done in August is hit around .500 (25 for 51) there.  I dunno about you, .500 works for me.

Wow.

I could go on and on in this regard.  Push the good ones up, move the others out of the way.  Put your best students in advanced classes, leave the others back.

Doing so accelerates your best guys.  Good for the mother ship in Queens and good for possible trades.

I'm not done, though.  So, let me go on and on.

Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio - all are being pushed and all are growing.  All will likely arrive sooner in Queens than they would have if under the Wilpon regime.  Or become, for some of them, attractive trade bait.  Baty is bopping in AA.  Maybe a 2022 Met.

Alvarez is accelerating at Brooklyn, but seems to be getting held back a bit by his very young age and a group of good catchers (like .290 Hayden Senger)  above him in AA and AAA. 

Mauricio is a bit surprising, his still being in Brooklyn, but he is also very young, and I'd be shocked if he does not join Baty in Binghamton pretty soon.  He's too good.  They may just want him to overcome the adversity of hitting in Cyclones Park (.193 this season) and dominate High A before moving forward.  He is just .191/.220/.362 in August so far after a hot July, so that may be a real factor, and consistently strong performance matters.

But extremely slow starting AA SS Manny Rodriguez heated up a lot in July, keeping Mauricio in Brooklyn.  M Rod recently got hurt, though, and was replaced by a solid guy 3 years older than the 20 year old Mauricio, Eddie Fermin.  Fermin has a .363 OBP this year, and plays slick D at multiple IF positions, so he is talented and deserves Bingo too.

Some guys, like reliever Brian Metoyer, have seemingly only been held back due to health.  Yes, it is not true that only New York Mets get hurt - some minor leaguers do, too.

The former 40th rounder Metoyer is back in the Brooklyn pen, pitching dynamically, after he missed a 5 week stretch.  From June thru August to date, he has thrown 13 innings, allowing just 4 hits, 1 run, and fanned 23.  And his recent control is much improved.  Numbers which say to me, "Injury or no injury, get him up to Binghamton."  He has allowed just 25 hits in 53 innings over his last two seasons.  I like unhittable guys.  I think the "40" was a typo - he really is more of a 4th round guy.

A guy like his hard throwing pen mate, Bryce Montes de Oca, is holding himself back, however, due to bad control.  36 Ks in 28 innings are nice - but 26 walks?   Ouch.  That will put the promotion button on pause.  Drafted in 2018, he is getting his first action in 2021, so it should come around.  

One thing I like about Bryce Mountain?  4 for 4 in saves.  

In those 4 games, 5.1 innings, 1 hit allowed.  Maybe he likes high pressure situations.


But, let me wrap up. Please continue to promote these good guys as fast as possible.

All good.  Nothing like a good promotion.  

DO IT LIKE FED EX - FAST, FAST, FAST.


BEFORE I GO:

Interesting stat of the day...Joe DiMaggio hit in 56 straight games for the Yanks.  

Could anyone ever do better?  Yes.  

His name? Joe DiMaggio, who hit in 61 straight minor league games in 1933.  Amazing.  

I'd promote him without hesitation.

He also knocked in 167 runs one season and 155 in another.  

As a Met, no doubt, he'd be good for 75-80 RBIs, once the Hitter Suppression Effect in Queens was applied to him.

ALSO:

How about Andrew Cuomo for Mets manager?

1) He is unemployed and could use the work

2) He has significant managerial experience

3) He'd be a hands-on manager

4) He has expertise in managing a bunch of losers

5) His pop Mario Cuomo played minor league ball and hit .244 in 81 games in 1952 in the Georgia-Florida League, so baseball is in Andrew's DNA.

13 comments:

Gary Seagren said...

The big league is working hard to make sure we have better draft position in 22' so thats something and I still believe the half hearted trade at the deadline said to me " were not winning this thing but need to show we didn't give up ". Bryant would have been a much better get than K-man and maybe as FA this winter a better RFer than MC and much more versatile.

Mack Ade said...

Thoughts

1. For now, I disagree about rapid movement for the few chips we have in the system. Bump them a level in the minors before the season ends but stop there.

2. I was disappointed to read the article on the Mets looking to upgrade 3B in the off season. You have Mark Vientos ready for 2022 and Brett Baty right behind him. Add to that McNeil if Baez is signed and there still is a good producing Davis. IMO, there are other areas to consider first.

Tom Brennan said...

Bring a big shopping list and a big checkbook this winter.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I am puzzled too with our 3B prospects. Vientos sadly is missing valuable time right now. Davis is not “good producing” as I point out on Thursday, IMO.

John From Albany said...

Think we will see Vientos soon. He was in dugout with Carlos Cortes on Sunday.

Mack Ade said...

All the team will say.is Vientos is day to day

Tom Brennan said...

Good. My guess is he and Carlos C ought to be back in the lineup today, then.

Steve said...

There have been some pretty good performances by prospects this year. However, the arguments can be made that most still need to be developed properly before getting promoted. K. Lee has a decent BA and a stellar OPB in Syracuse. Numbers that could justify a promotion. What about those strike outs. Needs time to develop the pitch recognition. Additional and proper development is necessary.
I do not see any of these core prospects contributing on the major league level until the 2023 season - some at the beginning of the year and some as call-ups. If I was managing the Mets, I would be looking at the 2023 season as the start of something great. Sign our future core (Alonso, Nimmo, Smith) to longer term contracts. Trade what few chips we have (de Grom, ???) for MLB ready players. Also, get the right coaching staff in place (hitting) at the MLB level.
There have been prospects that were performing on the minor league level that were rushed to the majors who never really succeeded because they lacked proper development. Names such as Niese, Pelfry come to mind.

Raw said...

Hi,

I loved your article and agree with everything. Why hold these players back if the coaches feel they can handle the next level?

I know some Mets fans will be disgruntled with the new regime and the major league club right now but I feel they have done a great job with the minor leagues. They started out with many starters going down early in the year with TJSurgery and they went out and got starters from the independent leagues. Some are bad and some turned out as surprises, but at least it mad the games interesting for the fans. They have worked with the starters they had and for the most part have done a great job of moving them along. I feel in next years spring training the Mets are going to have many possible starters via for a spot. Walker, Oller, Butto (maybe), Megill, Peterson.

In addition the Mets have had problems in the minor leagues with depth at OF. But once again they tried to improve this situation by picking up numerous players through trades or waivers. In addition they have provided in house options by moving players to play in the outfield. Like Cortes, Vientos, Baty. They moved Lagrange up to Syracuse recently and so far he is doing well. They also got Rincon from the Dodgers and he is doing great at AA.

I was disappointed with Rocker, but I have to assume they believe the doctors. I think they could possibly have several first round draft picks next year and I hope they do a good job.

Tom Brennan said...

STEVE - GREAT THOUGHTS. Sometimes pitchers can make a quick leap - hitters not so much as the pitching is so much tougher. Lee has about 30 more games. Possibly AFL too. Hopefully that might be enough. Vientos - the last thing he needed was time not playing. Every game counts - I am thinking mid-2022 on both, at the latest.

Tom Brennan said...

RAW - GOOD THOUGHTS. Along the lines of my point to Steve, these guys only get to jump to the big leagues 1) if the team is desperate or 2) if they are really ready to perform. The only games that REALLY count are big league games, so trial and error at the MLB level is not a great idea.

My article is mostly focused on them jumping fast thru the minors. I equate it to when I was a kid, I went to the batting range a lot. I could have hit medium speed all day long, but sooner or later, the very fast machines were going to be an adjustment. Just do it fast as possible and be done with it.

That batting range, by the way, is no longer there - it was between Shea and Van Wyck just off the parkway - I loved it because you could hit the ball 300 feet there without hitting a net.

Viper said...

Say Good-bye to Conforto.
Trade J.D. Davis.
Move Nimmo to RF.
Bring Pillar back for another year.
Move Mauricio to the outfield.
Bring Vientos up somewhere during 2022.

Stop signing expensive players who will block our best prospects. Didn't the Mets learn anything with the great Lindor?

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, excellent points. I will address player non-productivity on Thursday. You want to keep producers, and promote farm guys who might be new, cheap producers.